***Week 12 Lex***

B.A.R. said:
#TyrodNation
Click to expand...

This team will rally around TT this week. The offensive line has played as bad as they possibly could, and as I said will continue to struggle vs strong defensive front 7s. The chiefs have 19 sacks on the season so they don't strike as much fear in my heart as say Bosa did last week. Clay will play which is the most important factor in the passing game. I think we see Zay get some looks from Tyrod and McCoy should be able to do what he does. Chiefs in full regression mode and I just think this is a spot where Tyrod could really shine.
 
I like it bud...this was a stay away but I like the 'rally around' theory quite a bit.
 
Turkey Day plays

Lions+2.5+100

Chargers tt u24.5-110

3 units each

Lions+7.5
Cowboys+7.5
Redskins-2

3 to win 4.95 units
 
Happy thanksgiving everyone! Off a losing week where my original leans crushed and I added 2ndh losers alllll week.

Lions- I see a ton of square love for the home team here, and maybe the Vikes come out and pound on them. Vikes off a great home win where outside of the first q they dominated. I was on them large last week but today otr, short week I think this is a potential flat spot. Yes the Lions run game has been non existent but it's not like Minny gives up better than the 3.3 ypc they avg anyway. Give me the better qb as a home dog to dink and dunk the Vikings to death. Prater's clutch foot the deciding factor in not buying this up to +3-125 when I could have....hopefully it doesn't come into play. Lean over in this one, actually the only total I like to go over today.


Chargers- Watched the whole game last week and every td was gift wrapped for them. Dallas came out strong 1sth vs Philly and then was rolled 2ndh....so another week to hear about how the D can't do anything without Lee in....I think they find a way to keep this a low scoring ugly game. Dak with the legs to extend plays and drives, oline should shore up. At the same time I can't see the Cowboys offense exploding without Zeke and Dez getting blanketed so I this could be a 20-17 type game.

The Redskins should come out and win/cover vs the Giants, but I do have my concerns that they come out flat off a tough loss. Could be another ugly game as these injuries will affect the Skins offense. Thompson was huge as a checkdown/out of the backfield... Perine could be featured today as I think they can dominate the line.... I just worry about them if the run game doesn't get going enough to create short yardage situations.
 
Happy Thanksgiving Lex, can only imagine the work you're putting in today.

Can't discredit anything you've said...just crazy the Chargers are favored in Dallas. That was expected by basically no one. I think they roll, Bosa big game or so I hope.
 
thanks guys! Doing a small one only 8 so not too much work....Wifey killed the pie game pumpkin and little mini pecan pies. Did a ton of prep yesterday so I can take it easy and really only gets crazy for the last hour. Then it's to the couch :beerdrink:
 
Lexington 125 said:
This team will rally around TT this week. The offensive line has played as bad as they possibly could, and as I said will continue to struggle vs strong defensive front 7s. The chiefs have 19 sacks on the season so they don't strike as much fear in my heart as say Bosa did last week. Clay will play which is the most important factor in the passing game. I think we see Zay get some looks from Tyrod and McCoy should be able to do what he does. Chiefs in full regression mode and I just think this is a spot where Tyrod could really shine.
Click to expand...

Bills been kinda in same regression mode as chiefs no?
 
2daBank said:
Bills been kinda in same regression mode as chiefs no?
Click to expand...

Yes if you look back last two weeks I faded the Bills and said they would get curb stomped. Both have regressed however the Bills aren't the ones favored by 10 here.


Lean to the over as well
 
Just trying to get all of my sunday wagers together. Love the Bills +10/ML grab @+465 as it is now +8.5/+325. Panthers ML as it could be close (but I think they win/cover if they are for real.)

Bills tt o18.5/game over- As i stated before TT is a team favorite. I know the offense responds well to his return. No Benjamin but Clay is going to play (I think a sneaky good DFS start)- Zay will need to step up and make a couple big catches. Shady should be able to find some room, would expect 1td a game from him from here on out. I actually think Cadet could make nice contributions out of the backfield. Tolbert as a 3rd down back is no real threat to beat LBs, Cadet caught all 6 targets lw. Chiefs have struggled to generate a pass rush so maybe just maybe the oline won't look like a sieve. Kicking game on both sides of the ball are very clutch, which I love on an over wager.

Defensively, the Bills are who they are. A middle of the road D that can outperform at times when they force turnovers. Alex Smith has thrown just 3 ints, so do the Bills force any? Tre White was fired up about being passed up for D rookie considerations, would be a cool storyline for him to break out. On the other hand Tyreek Hill is going to roast someone at some point and I would expect Hunt to get right back on track if Reid commits to running him. There is no reason on earth this kid shouldn't get 22+ carries! Reid's playcalling to me has been downright redic Kelce throwing ints etc. but I think both teams will be able to find the endzone in this one. 27-24 Bills, the hype comes back to Buffalo and then the Patriots beat us by 24 next week.
 
Bucs/Falcons- I know the Falcons look like they have righted the ship, but have they? I was on them MNF but here I think they are laying too much at home off a short week/emotional win. This defense is allowing 4.5ypc and has allowed 13tds with just 3 ints through the air. The special teams unit has been hilariously bad so I would expect a couple short fields for TB. Fitz has been making plays but I will admit TB's offense is very jeckyll/hyde- Maybe I'm a sucker for touching the side here but of all the heavy lined favorites I think this is the least justified. 31-26 tb

Rams- faded NO and the Rams last week but here I'll back the home team. Saints defense has taken a step forward but it's still suspect to me, especially vs elite rbs. Looking at their schedule they haven't faced any fearsome rushing attacks!Something to make a note of and could definitely be a factor in the playoffs. Dalvin Cook killed them week 1, Perine ran for 117 lw. I would think with woods out the Rams may be pounding Gurley down NO throats. They don't want Brees on the field. I think this is the trap over of the week way inflated but I'm ok with just the side... I may look for 2ndh value on the total but I'm trying to be selective today.

Colts- Titans the better team and off a beatdown so they bounce back and crush indy... not so fast. Divisional game Colts off a bye coming back healthy. Everyone quick to point out Colts bad run d/Titans great run d, but Tenn has allowed passing 20 tds. Looking like they will be without Rishad as well. Line to me looks like they are begging for Titans $$$ t boot, but honestly the icing on the cake is the fact that my buddy, the ultimate mush, has this as his favorite play. Give me the home dog to pull off the upset....
 
the longshots


Parlay +875

Bills tt o18.5
Bucs/Falcons o46
Hawks ML
Jags tt o21.5
Steelers ML

1.5 units



Parlay +1460

Bengals-6
Pats-14
Colts+4.5
Jags-3
Raiders ML
Ravens ML

1 unit
 
Hulu said:
Thinking very similar today. Really like the Bills TT over, Tampa and especially Indy
Click to expand...

hopefully Buffalo shows up, I think they need a quick early lead for confidence...


adding Panthers tt o21.5-110 to top, really really last wager until half. Jets are going down the tubes the rest of the season. Very good possibility the Panthers d scores, wind could be a factor but Cam can dink and dunk with McCaffery and Stewart will pound the rock.
 
SNF

Packers/Steelers o43-101

Packers/Steelers o21-125 1sth

4 units each


Packers tt o17+162

Packers+10+162

3 units each



idgaf
 
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