Week 12 Leans & Plays

Aztec4Life

Aztec4Life

Montezuma Mesa Survivor
Hoping to really break through with a great week 12!


'an_horse'


Week 12 Plays

Texas -13 (-110) [1.4 Units] :D

Tulsa -5 (-110) [1.4 Units] :mad:

UCLA -6.5 (-120) [1 Unit] :D

Louisiana Tech -13 (-110) [1 Unit] :mad:

Air Force +4 (-105) [1 Unit] :mad:

Buffalo +3 (-115) [1 Unit] :D

Navy +4 (-105) [1 Unit] :mad:

Central Michigan +4 (-110) [0.8 Units] :D

Virginia Tech +4 (-110) [0.7 Units] :D

Nebraska -6 (-105) [0.7 Units] :D

UConn -9 (-110) [0.6 Units] :D

UCLA 2nd Half -2.5 (-110) [0.5 Units] :D

LSU -16.5 (-110) [0.5 Units] :mad:


'an_horse'


Week 12 Leans

Michigan -3.5


'an_horse'


Best of luck this week fellas! Any feedback on my leans will be greatly appreciated!


:cheers:
 
Last edited:
nawlins & Yanks - Thanks fellas! GL this week!

:cheers:


kyle - Why not?... :tiphat:

In all seriousness bro, I think Skinner is a winner, plain and simple. I'll take him and a better overall defense, laying only 3 on the road, against a redshirt freshman any day.

:shake:
 
Played thus far...

Texas -13 (-110) [1.4 Units]

Tulsa -5 (-110) [1.4 Units]


'an_horse'
 
Last edited:
Added...

Louisiana Tech -13 (-110) [1 Unit]


'an_horse'


Tailing RJ on LA Tech...after looking into the game, I really like the Bulldogs, whose defense has played damn near lights out recently (most importantly against the run), especially on their home turf. If you look at Utah State's blowout losses, they've happened when their run game was shut down...and that will likely happen on Saturday. Combine that with the fact that LA Tech becomes bowl elidgable with one more win, and you've got one fired up football team. I'm thinking the Bulldogs win this one by 20+.
 
Added...

Buffalo +3 (-115) [1 Unit]


'an_horse'


Akron is a solid football team this year. Having said that, I do feel that Buffalo has a much more opportunistic defense, which has really focused on creating turnovers this season. I've seen Buffalo play three times this season, and their safeties can HIT. One of them really does remind me of Bob Sanders, as the announcers pointed out repeatedly last week.

I also like Buffalo getting a FG in what should be a very, very tight game. These teams match up well against one another, but I think the key will be Willy's good decision making. The senior QB is having a stellar year, and if not for Nate Davis of the Cards, he could very well be MVP of the MAC, and is without a doubt the best QB in the MAC East this year.

Comparing the stats of Willy and Jacquemain, there is one thing that jumps out at me in particular...


<TABLE class=yspwhitebg cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR class=yspscbrdbg align=middle><TD class=ysptblhdr align=left colSpan=16 height=18>Passing</TD><TD class=yspwhitebg noWrap width=1 rowSpan=100><SPACER height="1" width="1" type="block"></TD></TR><TR class=ysptblthbody1 align=right><TD class=yspdetailttl height=18></TD><TD class=yspdetailttl align=left width="21%">Name</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>G</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>QBRat</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>Att</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>Comp</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>Pct</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>Yds</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>Y/A</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>Y/G</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>TD</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>Int</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>Long</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>Sack</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>YdsL</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl height=18></TD></TR><TR class=ysprow1 align=right><TD class=yspscores></TD><TD class=yspscores align=left>Drew Willy</TD><TD class=yspscores>9</TD><TD class=yspscores>141.0</TD><TD class=yspscores>286</TD><TD class=yspscores>179</TD><TD class=yspscores>62.6</TD><TD class=yspscores>2096</TD><TD class=yspscores>7.3</TD><TD class=yspscores>232.9</TD><TD class=yspscores>17</TD><TD class=yspscores>4</TD><TD class=yspscores>68</TD><TD class=yspscores>21</TD><TD class=yspscores>-145</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

<TABLE class=yspwhitebg cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR class=yspscbrdbg align=middle><TD class=ysptblhdr align=left colSpan=16 height=18>Passing</TD><TD class=yspwhitebg noWrap width=1 rowSpan=100><SPACER height="1" width="1" type="block"></TD></TR><TR class=ysptblthbody1 align=right><TD class=yspdetailttl height=18></TD><TD class=yspdetailttl align=left width="21%">Name</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>G</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>QBRat</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>Att</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>Comp</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>Pct</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>Yds</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>Y/A</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>Y/G</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>TD</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>Int</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>Long</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>Sack</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>YdsL</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl height=18></TD></TR><TR class=ysprow1 align=right><TD class=yspscores></TD><TD class=yspscores align=left>Chris Jacqu</TD><TD class=yspscores>9</TD><TD class=yspscores>131.6</TD><TD class=yspscores>286</TD><TD class=yspscores>170</TD><TD class=yspscores>59.4</TD><TD class=yspscores>2052</TD><TD class=yspscores>7.2</TD><TD class=yspscores>228.0</TD><TD class=yspscores>17</TD><TD class=yspscores>11</TD><TD class=yspscores>49</TD><TD class=yspscores>14</TD><TD class=yspscores>-88</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>


Willy has a 4.25-1 TD/INT ratio, while Jacquemain has only a 1.5-1 TD/INT ratio. I think the Senior QB making the better decisions will be the deciding factor in this matchup. IMO, the Bulls have the top player at every offensive skill position. I believe the best receiver in this game, by far, is Naaman Roosevelt of the Bulls. The kid is a stud, and has 843 yards receiving on the year, averaging over 14 yards per catch, with 7 TDs. He's got tremendous hands, and great speed. Akron's running back, Kennedy, is a stud...but if I had my choice, I'd go with the Bulls starter James Starks, who is not only fast, but a big, bruising back, who fights hard for extra yardage on every carry. His stats mirror Kennedy's, but he's played two less games this season.

Just some of the reasons I like Buffalo. I'm also somewhat of a Turner Gil fan, who has really turned this Bulls program around. I think he brings a winning attitude, and I like how he hasn't been so conservative, even with the lead, in the Bulls most recent victories.


:cheers:
 
Last edited:
Aztec4Life said:
Added...

Louisiana Tech -13 (-110) [1 Unit]


'an_horse'


Tailing RJ on LA Tech...after looking into the game, I really like the Bulldogs, whose defense has played damn near lights out recently (most importantly against the run), especially on their home turf. If you look at Utah State's blowout losses, they've happened when their run game was shut down...and that will likely happen on Saturday. Combine that with the fact that LA Tech becomes bowl elidgable with one more win, and you've got one fired up football team. I'm thinking the Bulldogs win this one by 20+.
Click to expand...

Good to see you on it and the extra analysis on the run D. From my perspective, the play was much more on value and motivation. I'm glad there is an Xs and Os advantage too.
 
Whew! Tonight's game was close...but a cover is a cover! Props to CMU for hanging on, despite poor clock management at the tail end.
 
Damn nice start to this week aztec. :cheers:

I'm on Texas and Tulsa with you, let's get that shit.
 
What a great way to start the week Aztec. Nothing like being 3-0 and feeling good going into Saturday. That's the thing about weekday games if you win them it really gives you a nice little boost of energy but if you lose them it's a horrible feeling being down in a hole to start the week. BTW all 3 of those came down to the end for the cover, some exciting stuff and deserved after the TCU bad beat.

I always jinx myself when I say this but I think your going to have a nice little week with this start. I'm playing Texas and Nebraska and lean Tulsa too that's why I say that.


-----Aztec, any Navy thoughts?? I know pags is on them he is as credible as they come.

----LSU I wouldn't touch IMO. Sanwich between Bama and Mississippi. That Ole Miss game is a real rivalry. LSU had some trouble covering that Tulane spread, and didn't cover if you got a bad number. Same argument your using applied there, LSU was mad after giving up 50 to Georgia. LSU didn't really put away Mississippi State and I rate Troy maybe not too far behind them. IMO Aztec LSU matches up great with straight on teams that come straight ahead and run right at you or are very conventional in their approach. South Carolina and Bama are so. Troy is a very spread team that gets playmakers in space. BlueChip has commented that the secondary players for LSU, who are young, are often out of position and can't tackle.

LSU is going to be switching up some qb's with Jefferson and trying out some new stuff as well.

I might get an LSU opionion on this game but really when I think about it I kind of like Troy here. Just hard to bet LSU IMO in such a sandwich situation.
 
Thanks for the kind words, O-State.

I'm on Navy for a number of reasons.

1. Shaun White is definitely a stud. The guy is capable of scoring a TD anywhere on the field.

2. Notre Dame has to be at least somewhat distracted by all the Weis on the hot-seat talk, and their recent struggles.

3. I agree with just about every point pags makes in regards to both Navy, and Air Force this week.

4. I like betting the service academies, because they play smart, disciplined football. And, contrary to popular belief, both Navy and AF have good team speed.

Again, thank you for the thoughts and kind words, and best of luck this Saturday!

:cheers:
 
I may add a small, half-unit play on Cinci 1st Half -2.5 tomorrow, but if not, I'm done for this week!

GL on Saturday, my fellow degenerates!

:cheers:
 
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