Week 12 HAMMERS!!!!!

HammersSpreads

HammersSpreads

Pretty much a regular
Season Record: 50-40 (55.56%)
Sides Record: 43-34 (55.8%)
Totals Record: 7-6 (53.85%)
ML Parlay: 0-1

MASTER Record: 12-3 (80.00%)

HAMMERED Record: 0-2 (0.0

4-3 Last week (2-0 MASTER)

Wiscy -8 (MASTER) = Almost gave me a heart attack at the end of this one. Wiscy could have ran away with this easily. Shouldn't have been this close.
SDSU +7 (MASTER) = My God do I have these 2 teams PINNED. Aside from SDSU turning it over their first 2 possessions, the game went exactly how I figured. 6-0 on SJSU's last 6 games, including MASTERing their last 3 games. SDSU not getting much respect, when they could easily be & should be 7-2 overall
UCLA +2 = Didn't get to watch, but I capped it thinking that UCLA had the front 7 to slow down Zona, & that maybe Jim Mora & Co had ways to slow down Rich Rod's offense. I don't know if that really played out, but a win is a win
Va Tech +6 = Couple lucky bounces early but Va Tech absolutely dominated. I knew Va Tech would win as long as Thomas didn't turn it over
Arizona St -7 = ASU decided to only play the opening drive & the 4th qtr.
Wyoming +8 = Turned out to be a bad late night addition. Wyoming usually plays good as a dog, thought Fresno would have trouble w/ weather/atmosphere/altitude in Wyoming, & thought Bill Young being hired as new defensive consultant would help them prepare for Carr.
Mich/Neb O 57 = BAD pick. Don't really know what I was thinking


I also hit a nice 16:1 ML parlay of Va Tech, UCLA, SDSU. The overall record would look much better if it wasn't for the foolish, stubborn debacle of week 10. The MASTERs are rolling, I certainly don't want them to come to an end anytime soon)

On a 9-0 run w/ the MASTER's

Plenty of early leans. I'm in a rush but off the top of my head:

Leans:
Okla St -3
UCLA -2.5
Rutgers ML
Ball St. +6 (gonna wait & see if it keeps rising)
N'Western
 
Central Michigan Chippewas (-3)


I just started looking at the card, & have only really made it through the early games on Saturday. There are plenty of games I like, but didn't see any I love at first glance. & then I stubble onto this gem I believe.......

This is a game that will be very unlike me to bet. It will break one of my 3 rules I have in betting, & that rule is that I do not bet on bad teams. However, it also crosses an angle that I LOVE to use (usually not for another week or 2 though) & that angle is teams that are fighting for bowl eligibility. CMU is 3-6 & just got past their gauntlet part of the schedule, & even got a win against Ohio in that midst. Their final 3 games are against the other 2 directional Michigan schools & UMASS. Needless to say, this sets up very nice for them to win out.

Huge news for the Chippewas is that RB Zurlon Tipton is back healthy. He was a 1000 yd rusher last year & was injured week 1 of this year, & was believed to be out for the whole year. He came back last week against Ball St but it was obvious that Coach Enos had no desire to let him play much, he just wanted him to get his feet wet. The addition of Tipton is huge & now gives the Chips a nice 1-2 punch as the other RB Lavalii has been a nice surprise in his place. Also good news is that QB Cater is healthy again....he also got hurt week 1 & was expected to miss most or all of the season. I don't know if this will be an effect b/c QB Rush has played very well the last 3 games & appears to be much more comfortable.

Western Michigan has nothing to play for & they are a very bad team (1-8). Central Michigan isnt anything to write home to mom about either, but the fact that they have a chance for bowl eligibility still infront of them is huge. CMU was in this EXACT same position last year as well, needing to win their final 3 games to get bowl eligible & they completed that feat. So this is nothing new to them, & they have experience in this unique situation.

WMU is absolutely atrocious in the run defense ranking 120th nationally. I give zero craps about their pass defense being ranked in the top 15 nationally b/c NO ONE throws on them. CMU defense isnt nothing special, I know, & WMU QB play has been better the last couple games, but regardless we are talking about a team that lost in OT to EMU & beat UMASS by 1 pt. Only other negative in this game is that its a rivalry game....but I still like CMU to be the better & more hungry team.

The addition of Tipton to add a solid 1-2 punch against one of the worst rush defenses to grace the U.S.A. & with CMU still having a season with meaning makes this look like a sneaky good play to me. I have not bet it yet, but plan on doing so soon.


I shall return. Check ya laaaattteeeerrrrrr
 
Good analysis, Hammer, but I have the same rule you have--never let a loser team cost you money.

I watched C Mich play a couple of games recently and they looked respectable so you probably have a winner here, but I'm going to stick to my rule on this one.
 
Tahoe :thumbsup2: appreciate it buddy. I agree that CMU is middle of the road MAC team, while WMU is bottom of the barrell. MAC is either really good or really bad this year, CMU is maybe the only exception IMO.



[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Gonna go ahead & open up the ML Parlay with a game tonight:
[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]4 team ML Parlay:[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Bowling Green, OPEN, OPEN, OPEN[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif][/FONT]

[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Leans:[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Okla St (-3) ----- I'll go into this later. I still think Texas is garbage, & Okie St seems to be finding its stride. They also play really well in Texas[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Wyoming (+23) ----- HC Christensen is 17-4 as a road dog. Boise off a bye & has Wyoming given up (sure looked like it 2nd half last Saturday)?? Those are the only 2 concerns. I think Wyoming can move the ball on Boise & cover this large number[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Rutgers ML ----- Line is moving out of my favor. I really need to start researching this game. I agree with Gyno & everything he said about this game. I believe Cincy is one of the most overvalued teams in the nation & Rutgers should win this one.[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Ball St (+7) ----- This WILL be played. Gonna wait until tomorrow to lock it in[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]N'Western[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]UCLA[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]SDSU & OVER[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif][/FONT]
 
HammersSpreads said:


Western Michigan has nothing to play for & they are a very bad team (1-8).
Click to expand...

this is the only thing i disagree with in your write up...this is the biggest game of the year every year when these 2 meet. Big rivalry game

best of luck this week tho!
 
Ya I tried to back track on that later in the write up by saying it being a Rivalry game is the only reason I'm scared of the play. Probably should have just omitted that portion out.

Thanks for stopping by Irish. BOL this week
 
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]4 team ML Parlay:[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Bowling Green
moneybag.gif
, OPEN, OPEN, OPEN[/FONT]


Ball State Cardinals (+8.5)
When I bet UCF against L'Ville earlier in the year, I said that it was a spot I had circled for L'Ville to lose, & I hadn't seen anything throughout the year to change my mind of it. Well, I feel the same about this game here. I circled this game &/or Toledo next week to be the games that NIU losses, & I have no reason to let up now or back off. Now, i don't know if Ball St. wins, but I certainly have no problem betting them at any number over a TD.
There honestly isn't much reasoning behind making this bet, but there are a couple things that stand out:
Ball St. defense is suspect, especially rush defense. NIU rush offense is stellar. Ball St. held a 9 pt lead last year in the 3rd qtr until the wheels came off & the defense wore out. Can they last a whole game this year??
Ball st. offense is really good, especially pass offense. NIU pass defense is crap. I have been & continue to be critical of NIU pass defense. They have played only 1 real good QB & got torched by him, in a game they should have lost...at home...to Eastern Illinois (I bet NIU that game). Now the game vs EIU was early in the season, & the defense could be improved by now, however, they surely haven't played any QB to prove that. Ball St. also has 2 good RB's that average over 5 ypc, so I think it's unfair to call Ball St 1 dimensional.

I feel very comfortable taking all these points w/ 2 very even teams. Ball St is improved this year IMO, & I think NIU is about the same, maybe a little worse (b/c of defense). I'm not sold on the Huskies defense, & I think Ball St should be able to move it fairly easily on them b/c NIU hasn't played really anybody with much of a pulse on offense yet. The big question is can Ball St get the stops to get off the field & keep the D from tiring out?? This game should be maybe the best MAC game of the year, & I'm stoked for it....& I'll gladly take Ball So Hard Univ +8.5 (& sprinkle a tad on the ML).


BOL to ALL
Get Money
-BM Hammers
 
My a*s is still a little sore from last night.

No ATS pick tonight. Just adding Clemson to the ML parlay

4 team ML Parlay:
Bowling Green , Clemson, OPEN, OPEN


Ball State Cardinals (+8.5) LLLLLLOSER
 
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]4 team ML Parlay:[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Bowling Green
moneybag.gif
, Clemson
moneybag.gif
, OPEN, OPEN[/FONT]


Ball State Cardinals (+8.5)
an_burningbag.gif



UCLA Bruins (-2.5)
I really can't think of much reason not to make this bet. Very even teams in almost all aspects. UCLA gets Jordon James back, but don't know how much work he will get. If he's back & healthy then it should be a huge boost for the offense. Friday night primetime home game for UCLA, in a black-out environment w/ new slick unis, against a Washington team that hasn't shown much of anything on the road in recent years. Should be the best home crowd they have had all year, & i still feel like the books are not showing UCLA much love.


Leans:
CMU (-2.5)
Rutgers ML
Wyoming (+23)

ASU OVER
ULL OVER (gotta throw a little down on this from my boy JDN)


Card should be finished Friday night. BOL gang
BM_Hammers




 
4 Team Parlay:
Bowling Green W, Clemson W, Vandy, Va Tech (+120)





Ball State Cardinals (+8.5) L



UCLA Bruins (-2.5)






Central Michigan Chip Chips (-2.5) ----- MASTER

Rutgers ML

Wyoming (+24)

ULL/Georgia St O 59.5

Arizona St/Oregon St O 64






I will also do another ML parlay most likely. SMU, Kansas St, Rice, Arizona St, SDSU are on the radar


Leans:


Oklahoma St (-3)

Georgia (+3.5)

Houston (+17)

SDSU (-4.5)

Oregon/Utah O 64






I will most likely be adding tomorrow. Rutgers and Wyoming are close to being MASTERed as well....really like them.


As always, if you would like any analysis of my picks just ask.






Get Money

BM_Hammers
 
BOL this week Hammers!!! I was on UCLA last week and again tonight. The same can be said about Wyoming. I also thought it was a tough road trip for Fresno, so I liked the Cowboys quite a bit as well. I even played them on the ML. Not to be deterred by last week's inauspicious results, I like the Cowboys again this week. I have to believe they can keep it with 24 points against Boise.
 
Mags, Hunt ----- thank ye

Jimmy ----- yes I agree about Wyoming. Only concern I have is if they have given up, which I don't think is true. Although they did look that way in the 2nd half last week. I don't think this is the Boise we are used to seeing, and Christensen does a good job of getting his team ready as a road dog as he is 17-4 ATS in that position. I see you're high on Bama this week, I'll have to look into that this afternoon as I totally omitted it from my eye.

Bad luck is piling up for the CMU game currently. They are really dominating the game, but now 2 turnovers inside their own 30 yd line

added another ML parlay: SMU, Rice, K State, Arizona St, SDSU (+177)

i lean heavy on Georgia but will lay off I think
 
Bowling Green
moneybag.gif
, Clemson
moneybag.gif
, Vandy, Va Tech (+120)
an_burn_money.gif
VA TECH IS EMBARRASSING

Ball State Cardinals (+8.5)
an_burningbag.gif

UCLA Bruins (-2.5)
moneybag.gif


Central Michigan Chip Chips (-2.5) ----- MASTER
moneybag.gif


Rutgers ML
an_burningbag.gif


Wyoming (+24)
ULL/Georgia St O 59.5
an_burningbag.gif


Arizona St/Oregon St O 64


ML parlay:

SMU, Rice, K State, Arizona St, SDSU (+177)


Houston (+17)

Bama (-23.5)



Been a very ho-hum day. BOL the rest of the way
 
vtech can all get a mrsa infection. what an abomination. i had em -6 in a 10 point teaser. shoulda known. great job hitting ur hammer and bol tonight
 
Agreed d-woww. It was the highest ML pick and it was actually my least confident....still can't believe they lost.

On a side note: I am REALLY kicking myself for not betting Oklahoma St today. It went from being one of the biggest bets of my day, to me completely throwing it off my card. The game has gone exactly how i thought it would. Probably the biggest mistake I've made all year. Disgusting
 
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