TNF: Saints
New Orleans looks unstoppable. Despite what the final score says, it pummeled the then-undefeated Rams and then pummeled both the Bengals and Falcons by a combined score of 99-21. The Saints’ scoring prowess has been insane with Drew Brees having an MVP-caliber season, throwing 25 touchdowns to one interceptions—an accomplishment that I can’t even achieve while playing Madden. One could argue that New Orleans has benefitted from playing low-quality pass defenses. Plus, the Bengals and Eagles were very much banged up on defense—the latter especially in their secondary. But, Atlanta’s defense is also banged-up and it ranks 29th in opposing passer rating, just ahead of Oakland.
One could counter that the Saints’ pass defense also ranks low in opposing passer rating. But New Orleans’ secondary has significantly improved with the acquisition of cornerback Eli Apple. In its last three games, the Saints are allowing an average 75.2 passer rating. Philadelphia’s usually prolific Carson Wentz mustered 156 passing yards off 19-for-33 passing with zero touchdowns and three interceptions in Sunday’s blowout.
Atlanta is 1-4 ATS in its last five road games. The Saints have covered eight in a row.
SNF: Vikings
Will bettors ever stop with their undying loyalty to Aaron Rodgers? He’s elite, but he can’t do everything, which is why Green Bay is only an average offense, ranking 13th in points per game. The Packers will have significant trouble scoring against Minnesota. They did manage 29 points against the Vikings in a tie, but that was in the second game of the season. Minnesota’s defense has been a lot better since then. Overall, it ranks seventh in opposing passer rating. In its last three games, it’s allowing an average 78.5 passer rating, which would place them ahead of the top-ranked Bears. Although Minnesota lost to New Orleans three games ago, it hits home to see that Drew Brees mustered only 120 passing yards against the Vikings in what was easily his worst game of the season.
Offensively, Minnesota finally has a healthy backfield. Dalvin Cook is back and he’ll thrive against a Packers defense that ranks 20th in opposing YPC. Quarterback Kirk Cousins also looks to replicate his Week 2 success, in which he threw for over 400 yards and four touchdowns against the Packers.
Minnesota is 5-2 L7 ATS against Green Bay.
LIONS: Lions are in a great betting spot. They’re already 3-0 SU and ATS as home dogs with upset wins over Packers, Pats, and Panthers. They’re 6-2 L8 ATS at home against Chicago. Their run D is improving.
REDSKINS: I worry about how effective Zeke will be—56 touches last two weeks and now short week. Skins are 9-2 L11 ATS in Dallas and are allowing 3.6 YPC on the road. Expecting tight slugfest between rivals.
SAINTS: Falcons may have just lost any realistic playoff chance after demoralizing loss to Dallas. Banged-up defense in no position to stop Saints, who’ve scored 99 points in their past two games and play D!
BILLS: Jags just lost their playoff hopes in demoralizing home loss. This team needs an OC capable of calling something other than a run up the gut or a quarterback who they can trust to pass with the lead.
BROWNS: Browns’ offense is catching fire with new staff. They need to keep feeding the beast (Chubb) against porous Bengals run defense. Browns coming off bye. Bengals look like awful team to lay chalk on.
JETS: Don’t trust Pats to score enough to cover partly due to injuries on O and partly because Brady is evidently getting old. Jets rank seventh in opp. passer rating and have covered L5 at home vs NE.
EAGLES: Eagles embarrassed themselves last week, so I expect fight from them at home against division rival. Giants’ pass D is vulnerable especially without Apple. Wentz and co. will have a big game.
BUCCANEERS: 49ers are still winless on the road. They rank 25th in opposing passer rating. Tampa’s offense has a ton of weapons at wide receiver. Jameis will start over Fitzpatrick. I don’t see SF keeping up.
PANTHERS: Carolina back at home where they’re 4-1 ATS compared to 1-4 ATS on the road. Solid group of linebackers including Kuechly leads run defense against run-first Seattle. In need of statement win.
RAVENS: Bottom-ranked Raiders O will struggle to score vs Baltimore that ranks second-best in points allowed per home game. Raiders struggle against the run, which Ravens will feature with Lamar Jackson.
CARDINALS: This spread is too high. Cardinals boast a top-ranked pass defense and defense travels. Cards rank fourth in opp. pass yards per game. They’re 2-0-1 L3 ATS on the road and 4-1 L5 ATS at the Chargers.
STEELERS: Pitt is 5-0-1 L6 ATS whereas Denver is 1-4-1 L6 at home. Pitt has big edge in passing game against mediocre Denver pass D. Pitt gets to face consecutive run-first teams, ranks 12th in opp. YPC.
COLTS: Colts are rolling 3-0-1 L4 ATS. Offense is underrated. The o-line is strongly improved and the pass attack is lethal. Miami is 1-4 ATS on the road where it allows an average 105.3 passer rating.
VIKINGS: VIkings D has become one of the best after slow start to the season. Packers’ statistically average offense will struggle to score much while its defense won’t contain Minnesota’s healthy backfield.
TITANS: Titans suffered a let-down last week after beating New England before. The defense is still ranked second in opposing points per game. It will bounce back in division game and keep the score close.
New Orleans looks unstoppable. Despite what the final score says, it pummeled the then-undefeated Rams and then pummeled both the Bengals and Falcons by a combined score of 99-21. The Saints’ scoring prowess has been insane with Drew Brees having an MVP-caliber season, throwing 25 touchdowns to one interceptions—an accomplishment that I can’t even achieve while playing Madden. One could argue that New Orleans has benefitted from playing low-quality pass defenses. Plus, the Bengals and Eagles were very much banged up on defense—the latter especially in their secondary. But, Atlanta’s defense is also banged-up and it ranks 29th in opposing passer rating, just ahead of Oakland.
One could counter that the Saints’ pass defense also ranks low in opposing passer rating. But New Orleans’ secondary has significantly improved with the acquisition of cornerback Eli Apple. In its last three games, the Saints are allowing an average 75.2 passer rating. Philadelphia’s usually prolific Carson Wentz mustered 156 passing yards off 19-for-33 passing with zero touchdowns and three interceptions in Sunday’s blowout.
Atlanta is 1-4 ATS in its last five road games. The Saints have covered eight in a row.
SNF: Vikings
Will bettors ever stop with their undying loyalty to Aaron Rodgers? He’s elite, but he can’t do everything, which is why Green Bay is only an average offense, ranking 13th in points per game. The Packers will have significant trouble scoring against Minnesota. They did manage 29 points against the Vikings in a tie, but that was in the second game of the season. Minnesota’s defense has been a lot better since then. Overall, it ranks seventh in opposing passer rating. In its last three games, it’s allowing an average 78.5 passer rating, which would place them ahead of the top-ranked Bears. Although Minnesota lost to New Orleans three games ago, it hits home to see that Drew Brees mustered only 120 passing yards against the Vikings in what was easily his worst game of the season.
Offensively, Minnesota finally has a healthy backfield. Dalvin Cook is back and he’ll thrive against a Packers defense that ranks 20th in opposing YPC. Quarterback Kirk Cousins also looks to replicate his Week 2 success, in which he threw for over 400 yards and four touchdowns against the Packers.
Minnesota is 5-2 L7 ATS against Green Bay.
LIONS: Lions are in a great betting spot. They’re already 3-0 SU and ATS as home dogs with upset wins over Packers, Pats, and Panthers. They’re 6-2 L8 ATS at home against Chicago. Their run D is improving.
REDSKINS: I worry about how effective Zeke will be—56 touches last two weeks and now short week. Skins are 9-2 L11 ATS in Dallas and are allowing 3.6 YPC on the road. Expecting tight slugfest between rivals.
SAINTS: Falcons may have just lost any realistic playoff chance after demoralizing loss to Dallas. Banged-up defense in no position to stop Saints, who’ve scored 99 points in their past two games and play D!
BILLS: Jags just lost their playoff hopes in demoralizing home loss. This team needs an OC capable of calling something other than a run up the gut or a quarterback who they can trust to pass with the lead.
BROWNS: Browns’ offense is catching fire with new staff. They need to keep feeding the beast (Chubb) against porous Bengals run defense. Browns coming off bye. Bengals look like awful team to lay chalk on.
JETS: Don’t trust Pats to score enough to cover partly due to injuries on O and partly because Brady is evidently getting old. Jets rank seventh in opp. passer rating and have covered L5 at home vs NE.
EAGLES: Eagles embarrassed themselves last week, so I expect fight from them at home against division rival. Giants’ pass D is vulnerable especially without Apple. Wentz and co. will have a big game.
BUCCANEERS: 49ers are still winless on the road. They rank 25th in opposing passer rating. Tampa’s offense has a ton of weapons at wide receiver. Jameis will start over Fitzpatrick. I don’t see SF keeping up.
PANTHERS: Carolina back at home where they’re 4-1 ATS compared to 1-4 ATS on the road. Solid group of linebackers including Kuechly leads run defense against run-first Seattle. In need of statement win.
RAVENS: Bottom-ranked Raiders O will struggle to score vs Baltimore that ranks second-best in points allowed per home game. Raiders struggle against the run, which Ravens will feature with Lamar Jackson.
CARDINALS: This spread is too high. Cardinals boast a top-ranked pass defense and defense travels. Cards rank fourth in opp. pass yards per game. They’re 2-0-1 L3 ATS on the road and 4-1 L5 ATS at the Chargers.
STEELERS: Pitt is 5-0-1 L6 ATS whereas Denver is 1-4-1 L6 at home. Pitt has big edge in passing game against mediocre Denver pass D. Pitt gets to face consecutive run-first teams, ranks 12th in opp. YPC.
COLTS: Colts are rolling 3-0-1 L4 ATS. Offense is underrated. The o-line is strongly improved and the pass attack is lethal. Miami is 1-4 ATS on the road where it allows an average 105.3 passer rating.
VIKINGS: VIkings D has become one of the best after slow start to the season. Packers’ statistically average offense will struggle to score much while its defense won’t contain Minnesota’s healthy backfield.
TITANS: Titans suffered a let-down last week after beating New England before. The defense is still ranked second in opposing points per game. It will bounce back in division game and keep the score close.
