Week 12 Discussion Thread

B.A.R.

B.A.R.

CTG Partner
Staff member
Alright, Turkey week...always a fun one...


Lions and Vikings meet in a pivotal game in Detroit. A Lions wins gives them a 2-0 tiebreaker advantage with perhaps a slightly easier schedule in December. Minnesota is line -3 and that is a strong line. Take away the Holiday, etc and I would definitely favor Minnesota. Anything can happen though...so tough one to bet ATS...

The Chargers, fresh of a trashing of the Bills go to Dallas. I see this as a PK on the board. I was still expecting Dallas to be a slight favorite. Despite their issues, I like the Cowboys in this game.

Giants and the Skins in the nightcap. The Giants got that win outta the way yesterday. Washington is the best 4-6 team in the league. Must win for the skins as it will be till the finish. I'll look at a tt around 27 here and roll with it most likely.

Onto Sunday...

Bengals and the Browns...aka...battle of CTG IT guys past and present...what an awful game. No one wants to bet the Browns but this feels like a cover for them here with a possible win.

The Iggles are getting priced like a legit contender now. The Bears can control games somewhat at times running the ball and defense but are outmatched here. That is a lot of points but it doesn't seem like Philly cares to not score even when up big. No thanks here.

Okay, holy line in New England. We have our first official, WTF line of the year. I understand the Dolphins are struggling and have gotten pounded defensively the last 4 games but getting 3+ scores is a bit much. The Pats defense hasn't improved that much. I will be on Miami tt here which should be 17 or below most likely.

Buffalo and KC in what looked like a potentially fun game several weeks ago and now..well..not so much...Tough to know who/what shows up for these teams...

The Panthers visit the Jets. I do believe the close losses took a lot out of the Jets. I am not one for laying pts with the Panthers though, period. Pass on this game for sure...

Tenny and Indy in game 2 of their series. This is another game where I have no clue. Lets look at Biscuits health first. I was very unimpressed by the Tenn coaching plan last week.

Saints and Rams in a titanic NFC battle. This game is bigger for LA for one reason. They cannot go 0-2 against 2 of the top 3 teams in conference in b2b weeks.They need a win here. The Saints do 'have that look' as 'Teeed mentioned. This should be a lot of fun.

Jax at Arizona is just gross. Ideally you see something like 20-13 Jags here and get an under in...somehow, someway...so that means we see something like 31-27 for no reason whatsoever.

The Donks and Raiders is the ShitShow Bowl. They are both done as far as playoffs go and have just struggled. This is the old weird -5 line to. Those make me nervous. Tempting for dog and scary too take favorite up 10-11 late. We'll see how Denver responds to a coordinator change.

Green Bay and Pitt in a SNF affair. Obviously this game doesn't have the luster it would with Rodgers in there. This is a total stay away in my book.

Monday night brings a tremendous match up...well tremendously boring one in the Ravens and Texans. This is a good night to catch up on some DVR'ed shows fellas.


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We are seeing some inflated lines this week... and a few that are very strong....

Buyer beware...
 
KC stats have just been regressing to more realistic numbers from what they put up early in the season. They should be fine from here. Although they only have one passing play, just find the TE. 9.5 is a lot though, line is a massive over reaction

Cam is a flat track bully, the Jets are the sort of team he enjoys

PIT is playing to the level of their opponents. Pass
 
BAR im very close to going big on Detroit but I don't like that you don't like them lol. Must win for them, Minnesota off a big w, potential let down spot. feels like a Detroit win to me.

One thing that I think is extremely important for cappers is being willing to change your approach. In the past, public road favorites were something I avoided like the plague, but they have been hitting. I really think Carolina blows out the Jets, the teams are heading in opposite directions and I am pretty sure I will be laying the points.

Is Smith going to play for Dallas? Man, they have been brutal the last 2 weeks, and can't seem to get anything going on offense. Leaning hard on the Chargers, who need every game to remain in the playoff run. Dallas has a ton of distractions going on and it just feels like a nightmare year for them.

Washington is a much better team than the Giants, although I don't like how injured they are. I was somewhat impressed by them last week, cousins in particular, although they didn't get the one yard when they needed it. Giants are straight trash and I could see Washington wining something like 27-10.

Browns should cover and could win but I think I am officially done with betting on them. Maybe forever.

KC has been coming back to earth but they are just a much overall more talented team than the Bills. They may take out their frustrations on the Bills who can't stop anybody right now. I may be willing to lay the points, if not I will tease.

New England and Philly are just too many points for me to lay. Possibly New England 1h but probably no play at all on those games. No play on that Jax or Den games because they are ass.

I think the Rams beat the Saints, that will likely be a play. This is the kind of atmosphere that Brees has struggled in before and I don't think the Rams d is going to let NO run wild like they have lately.

Green Bay is cooked. If the gambling gods are going to keep giving me chances to bet against Brett Hundely, I think I have to keep taking it. This could be a game I tease with the Chiefs.



Back to the point I was making earlier, I am forgetting the usual rules. Sure the line on the steelers seems high, but GB has nothing on offense right now. So many of these teams just can't score, and I'll bet against them home, away, whatever.
 
Ty Smith practiced in a limited capacity on Monday. Think he gives it a go vs. Chargers. Sean Lee will not play.

Cowboys off a -28 result, Chargers off a +30. Looks like an obvious reversal game.

Hoodie said the trip to Mexico took quite a bit out of the Pats despite the rout. Dolphins looked feeble against Bucs. If Moore plays I'm loving Miami here.

Definitely some teaser choices this week with so many big numbers out there.
 
Not having Sean Lee quarterback the defense is far more detrimental than missing Tyrone Smith IMO. The D is clueless without Lee, whereas at least adjustments can be made to mask Smith's void
 
Hakan you definitely would know your team better than me but I am not sure not having Lee is the reason Dallas has scored 7 and 9 points the last 2 weeks. Again, the truth is they miss both horribly, but that offense is an issue too. Dez looks to be regressing
 
D-Woww said:
Hakan you definitely would know your team better than me but I am not sure not having Lee is the reason Dallas has scored 7 and 9 points the last 2 weeks. Again, the truth is they miss both horribly, but that offense is an issue too. Dez looks to be regressing
Click to expand...
The offense is definitely an issue. Missing Zeke is really hurting the team. When Zeke is in the backfield, the opposing defenses are forced to stack seven defenders in the box, which opens up play action. Morris/Rod Smith/McFadden just don't scare opposing defenses. Agree with you on Dez's regression. He really has taken a step back this year.
 
D-Woww said:
Hakan you definitely would know your team better than me but I am not sure not having Lee is the reason Dallas has scored 7 and 9 points the last 2 weeks. Again, the truth is they miss both horribly, but that offense is an issue too. Dez looks to be regressing
Click to expand...
Throw the ball to Beasley, keep the chains moving. Problem solved.
 
Alan Tongue said:
consecutive weeks where Blaine Gabbert isn't the worst starting QB on the field
Click to expand...

Unfortunately his defense let him down last week never able to hold the leads he was giving them. When Stanton was out there the d kept them in games while he and offense sputtered. Gabbert actually puts points on board and continues doing so every time defense pisses lead away vs Texans crap offense and it's never enough. They continue surrendering lead until gabbert finally made a mistake. Zona in the early time slot reared its ugly head again, now losing 9 of last 10 I believe.
 
there is definitely an alternate universe in which Blaine Gabbert wasn't thrown into action way to early with a crappy coaching staff and was actually brought along the right way and ended up becoming a decent QB. This is just not that universe.
 
I'll be on the Titans. Even though I know how much of a thorn in the side Indy has been to this team and the players & coaches know this.
 
ProV1Colt said:
I'll be on the Titans. Even though I know how much of a thorn in the side Indy has been to this team and the players & coaches know this.
Click to expand...

1st thought on this one is over. Really like brissett's ability to make plays up against this suspect secondary. Titans offense so inconsistent I'd expect a much better effort this week vs crappy colts defense.
 
Lions for sure tomorrow. Case Keenum is dying to have an awful game and I think this is it.

Took 10 w/ Buffalo yesterday....line should be about 4.5 the way KC has looked the last month.
 
I really want to play lions but think there more value in under. Don't concern yourself w amount of points been getting put up in both teams games recently. More important imo is what the games against each other have looked like and it incredibly rare these 2 play a game that goes over, believe 7 of last 8 meetings have played under posted total of 44.5. The one exception only played few points over this number.,

excellent matchup as in both offenses capable of getting some 1st downs and flipping field position while both defenses capable of making a play to get off the field. Sometimes 3 and outs can be nightmares for a under as you get a lot of possessions with very little time coming off the clock. I expect we see a game where we only be 3 possessions in and you look up to see the qrtr is just about over!

I expect somewhere between 37-43 points. Either 20-17 or 20-20 with next fg winning really looks like high side barring some craziness and a incredibly likely outcome.
 
Playing lions feels exactly like last week to me. I played them but really thought a push was incredibly likely, felt like wasn't a lot of chance they lost so figured was worth hoping they covered. This week i think we get a good effort in hugely important game, if that the case I don't see them losing by more than a fg but push feels very possible. So guess I'm gonna roll dice again with idea that if they play as they capable push highly likely the worst outcome.
 
I am on the oppoite side of the specteum and against the public heavy this week. Turkey day is a completely different beast. The most important game of the year for them. I will have a standard unit on the +3 at home but my much larger wagers will be on the Lions over 20.5 and the over 44. Stafford should easily surpass 20.5 in garbage time limping around after he gets hit 3-4 times. I think defenses on three days rest dont stand a chance. If cooter decides to run 21 between the tackles we stand no chance. Sweeps to Theo and AA out in the flat will put the minny D on its heels. I still see Stafford putting up huge numbers. Take it back to letting him throw 40-45 times a game.
Waiting on Prater props. Theo already played. Sooner or later JBC will realize we are an outsde running team.
I Like LA ML as well
 
Can't wait for the Turkey Day gms.
May do a small Over parlay that day on all 3 gms. I hope we get some fireworks all day. The night gm has potential to be the more exciting gm but for sure the 1st one has the most at stake.
 
question I was thinking about today...if you are andy reid do you give any consideration to throwing pat mahomes in there?

I mean, they are probably going to win their division, but alex smith is not winning a super bowl. in the end of the day, that is the goal right? so if you throw mahomes in there, he could be awful, and then you can go back to smith (no need to keep him happy hes gone next year anyway) OR you could catch lightening in a bottle and he could be a x factor.

kind of reminds me of when the niners benched alex for kaepernick even though they were winning...its all about winning the super bowl and you can win 8-10 reg season games with Smith but you aren't winning the lombardi
 
The Farm said:
I am on the oppoite side of the specteum and against the public heavy this week. Turkey day is a completely different beast. The most important game of the year for them. I will have a standard unit on the +3 at home but my much larger wagers will be on the Lions over 20.5 and the over 44. Stafford should easily surpass 20.5 in garbage time limping around after he gets hit 3-4 times. I think defenses on three days rest dont stand a chance. If cooter decides to run 21 between the tackles we stand no chance. Sweeps to Theo and AA out in the flat will put the minny D on its heels. I still see Stafford putting up huge numbers. Take it back to letting him throw 40-45 times a game.
Waiting on Prater props. Theo already played. Sooner or later JBC will realize we are an outsde running team.
I Like LA ML as well
Click to expand...

would u start stafford over prescott for fantasy?
 
D-Woww said:
question I was thinking about today...if you are andy reid do you give any consideration to throwing pat mahomes in there?

I mean, they are probably going to win their division, but alex smith is not winning a super bowl. in the end of the day, that is the goal right? so if you throw mahomes in there, he could be awful, and then you can go back to smith (no need to keep him happy hes gone next year anyway) OR you could catch lightening in a bottle and he could be a x factor.

kind of reminds me of when the niners benched alex for kaepernick even though they were winning...its all about winning the super bowl and you can win 8-10 reg season games with Smith but you aren't winning the lombardi
Click to expand...

I would do it but I don't see Reid making the move.
 
Well, here it is.....our largest line of the year. I want to say the last time we saw this NE was involved but it was vs the Browns( I could be wrong....anyone recall?) or the Jags. Is Cutler playing? Moore is better, not sure wtf they are doing

This happens every so often and I feel like we are tempted to take the dog and the whole THIS is the NFL man, those professionals will feel dissed etc.......and then the fave covers. That right or am I imagining shit


Thoughts on Saints? Okafor loss is big.....I am more unsure of how LA responds here...
I feel like the Saints show and the late start might be nice (emkee...help, which is better....we are C time, still)
 
Miami is a mirage. Worst rated team in the league despite their record. Coach is defending cutler at every turn. They are better when cutler gets hurt and Moore goes in.
 
thoughts on the BIlls in my thread but I think the over and bills+pts are both solid wagers.

Deonte Thompson, Matthews and Clay are all a go, no Tolbert so more Cadet.... I think this could be a shootout. Kelce is a huge mismatch Hill of course and 2 good rbs.
 
Somebody please explain the reverse line movement in Oakland. I have a lot more faith in Carr to put up points than Paxton lynch. Don’t understand who could be betting Denver in this game.
 
NBA - I saw that too. Cincy still alive in the playoff hunt. They are not good, but get the right opponent here. This game has curb stomp written all over it.
 
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