Week 11

TreyDawg

TreyDawg

Pretty much a regular
Sides: 30-37 -26.39u
Totals: 3-2 +3.30u
ML: 20-29 -13.26u
Teaser: 25-18 +4.90u
UDMLP: 0-10 -5.00u
ML Parlay: 13-17 -3.67u
Longshot: 2-11 +27.92u
TD Player Prop: 24-35 -0.98u
Straight Player Prop: 31-30 +2.05u
Player Prop Parlay: 14-15 +8.49u
Team Total: 11-6 +7.95u

Total Overall: 173-210 +5.31u

Mixed bag last time out and props actually carried the week. 30-30 overall dropping a little over 2 units but went 16-8 on props (9-2 on straights) picking up just over 12 units there. 2 straight winning prop weeks but can't figure out the sides/ML plays though. I zig when I should zag and vice versa even thought I've nailed the Redskins games the past few weeks. Shoulda just played those big and left everything else alone. Would be waaaay up had that been the case. Hindsight is always 20/20 though.

🏈 Week 11 🏈

Sides
Jags +3 -115 (2.3/2)
Redskins +3 -130 (2.6/2)
Bears +3 -120 (2.4/2)
Giants +7.5 -120 (2.4/2)
Texans -5.5 -117 (2.34/2)
9ers -3 -115 (2.3/2)
Seahawks +3 -102 (2.04/2)
Chiefs -3.5 -115 (2.3/2)

Totals


ML
Redskins +128 (1/1.28)
Bears +132 (1/1.32)
Giants +267 (1/2.67)
Jags +140 (1/1.4)
Seahawks +149 (1/1.49)

7 pt Teaser
Pats -6/Ravens -0.5 (1.35/1)
Bucs +12.5/Ravens -0.5 (1.35/1)
Seahawks +10/Ravens -0.5 (1.35/1)
Lions +9.5/Ravens -0.5 (1.35/1)

UDMLP
Redskins +130/Bears +1332/Jags +140 +1181 (.5/5.90)

ML Parlay
Pats -900/Packers -325/Ravens -400 -123 (2.46/2)
9ers -165/Chiefs -202 +140 (2/2.8)
Steelers -240/Texans -275/Ravens -460 +135 (2/2.70)

Longshot
Steelers -4.5/Titans TT u15.5/Bears +2.5/Bucs&Bills u46.5/9ers ML/Chiefs ML +3200 (.5/16)

TD Player Prop
Zach Ertz TD +179 (1/1.79)
Wan'Dale Robinson TD +200 (1/2)
Christian Watson TD +240 (1/2.4)
Jakobi Meyers TD +229 (1/2.29)
Rashad White TD +160 (1/1.6)
Nico Collins TD +160 (1/1.6)
Rashid Shaheed TD +260 (1/2.6)
Lamar Jackson +325 (1/3.25)
Rashee Rice TD +120 (1/1.2)

Straight Player Prop
Trevor Lawrence o1.5 pass TD +186 (1/1.86)
Khalil Shakir o43.5 rec yds -121 (1.21/1)
Bijan Robinson o75.5 rush yds -114 (1.14/1)
Christian Watson o40.5 rec yds -114 (1.14/1)
James Cook o79.5 rush yds -113 (1.13/1)
Rachaad White o45.5 rush yds -108 (1.08/1)

Player Prop Parlay
Jaylen Waddle o5.5 rec/Jaylen Waddle o79.5 rec yds +117 (1/1.17)
Dak o1.5 pass TD -173/Mahomes o1.5 pass TD -157 +159 (1/1.59)
De’Von Achane o70.5 rush yds -179/Bijan Robinson o66.5 rush yds -200 +134 (1/1.34)
Trey McBride o68.5 rec yds -209/Rashee Rice o67.5 rec yds -197 +123 (1/1.23)

Team Total
Giants TT o17.5 +109 (1/1.09)
Lions TT o21.5 -125 (1.25/1)


🍀 GL this week 🍀
 
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Redskin thoughts....

Well knew the beatdown was coming last week. They're just not good in any way and I'll go ahead and call last year an abberation. They're years away from anything close to that again. I hope the media keeps hyping them up creating value to fade them because they're not more than a 5-7 win team for the next couple of years. Which is right back to what we've been sadly. I never really believed their Super Bowl window was open even during the run last year and was always weird to me to hear them mentioned in that kind of talk.

I only see 2 winnable games left on the schedule this year with or without Daniels. This week in Madrid and maybe week 15 in NY but only if Dart is sidelined, if he's healthy and playing they'll lose that one too. So this week might be it for the year and could be a good spot if such a thing exists for this team. Been a rough stretch the last 4 weeks. Cowboys offense hangs a 40 burger, go to Arrowhead for a beatdown, then come home and get your dick kicked in by the Seahawks and Lions. Washington been outscored 154-65 in those 4 weeks but the Dolphins offense is not in the caliber of those 4 teams. Now Achane could go ham but that's any RB on any week against this team. There's been a lot of balls not bouncing their way this year and sometimes getting out of town is just what you need, for a week anyway. Get the hell away from it all and just play ball.

Look ahead line was Wash -2 and now they're +3 after Miami beating Buffalo and the Redskins getting busted up by Detroit. 5 points is a big move without any new injury developments. I know it's ugly but leaning to the Skins +3 & +135 in probably the only time I'll be on them the rest of the year if I get there.
 
Washington +3 -130 (2.6/2)
Bears +3 -120 (2.4/2)
Giants +7.5 -120 (2.4/2)
Texans -5.5 -117 (2.34/2)

Washington +128 (1/1.28)
Bears +132 (1/1.32)

9ers -165/Chiefs -202 +140 (2/2.8)
Steelers -240/Texans -275/Ravens -460 +135 (2/2.70)

Zach Ertz TD +179 (1/1.79)
Wan'Dale Robinson TD +200 (1/2)
Christian Watson TD +240 (1/2.4)

Trevor Lawrence o1.5 pass TD +186 (1/1.86)
Khalil Shakir o43.5 rec yds -121 (1.21/1)
Bijan Robinson o75.5 rush yds -114 (1.14/1)
Christian Watson o40.5 rec yds -114 (1.14/1)
James Cook o79.5 rush yds -113 (1.13/1)
Rachaad White o45.5 rush yds -108 (1.08/1)

Jaylen Waddle o5.5 rec/Jaylen Waddle o79.5 rec yds +117 (1/1.17)
 
Redskins +130/Bears +1332/Jags +140 +1181 (.5/5.90)

Steelers -4.5/Titans TT u15.5/Bears +2.5/Bucs&Bills u46.5/9ers ML/Chiefs ML +3200 (.5/16)
 
Jakobi Meyers TD +229 (1/2.29)
Rashad White TD +160 (1/1.6)
Nico Collins TD +160 (1/1.6)
Rashid Shaheed TD +260 (1/2.6)
Lamar Jackson +325 (1/3.25)
Rashee Rice TD +120 (1/1.2)
 
Dak o1.5 pass TD -173/Mahomes o1.5 pass TD -157 +159 (1/1.59)

De’Von Achane o70.5 rush yds -179/Bijan Robinson o66.5 rush yds -200 +134 (1/1.34)

Trey McBride o68.5 rec yds -209/Rashee Rice o67.5 rec yds -197 +123 (1/1.23)
 
Great thread as always!

Appreciate the analysis on the Skins each week. I think I was one of the few last year calling out that schedule but the fact is they won the games and whooped on us in January.

Definitely is an older team that needs QB1 healthy and start building younger.

I like that you're high on our TT tomorrow.. with MCDC calling plays the offense should be excellent the next several weeks. The loss of Laporta is huge though. Brock Wright is solid but he isn't stretching the field as much!

Post #11 I like what you're doing with Achane and Bijan.

I always worry about Bijan # of carries but he should get there tomorrow.
 
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