WEEK 11

bookieassassin

bookieassassin

Pretty much a regular
one unit

Nebraska +2/ML W


smaller

Ball St -2' W
USF -13 W
Auburn +7' W ha
LSU +10' L
UConn +10 W
BC +11 L
Temple +7 W
WF +7 W
Mizzou +7 L
-------------

Navy +17 1H W
Cal +10' 1H W


leans

Houston
App St ?
NW ?? (1H)
WV?
NCaro <7
Mizz St
Miss St >10? (-112 at BM)
BYU???
ULL
IOWA?
UTEP!?
Navy? TT?
 
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most later in the week probably ......ice cold recently

Ball St is actually fantastic at home (terrible on the road) in the MAC - covering 9/10 - 2 points from 10-0. Flashes off a nice W (BG) - and are weaker on the road - losing 9 straight, covering 2/9. BSU off a loss (then bye) - so we get a good deal at <3.
 
added

USF -13

at LV - off a loss/bye - UTSA off a HUGE home W / weak on the AAC road (tough at home) .....losing 7 in a row (1-6 ats). USF typically not great home favorites, but much better recently. Spotlight Thursday nite game - should run away late.....
 
bookieassassin said:
Auburn +7'

stayed within one possession at A&M, and OU on the road- D matches up well vs Vandy O - first game after HC firing has been a 'play on' spot
Click to expand...

I’d like to know they going back to arnold at qb, not cause he great or anything but honestly dunno why that Daniels kid choose to be a qb? he can’t freaking throw! Think I agree but I can’t do it if Daniels the qb. Def a bump without freeze who offense was a total freaking joke. With you on the d, might look at a vandy tt under.
 
2daBank said:
I’d like to know they going back to arnold at qb, not cause he great or anything but honestly dunno why that Daniels kid choose to be a qb? he can’t freaking throw! Think I agree but I can’t do it if Daniels the qb. Def a bump without freeze who offense was a total freaking joke. With you on the d, might look at a vandy tt under.
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This firing the HC thing, usually provides a solid bump in performance the first game. 7-1 the last time I checked? ....

Auburn has been tough on the road. Got mauled, but stayed within a TD at A&M, and OU, beat Arkansas. Vandy is tough, but depth is still a problem, and off a really tough stretch.
 
bookieassassin said:
This firing the HC thing, usually provides a solid bump in performance the first game. 7-1 the last time I checked? ....

Auburn has been tough on the road. Got mauled, but stayed within a TD at A&M, and OU, beat Arkansas. Vandy is tough, but depth is still a problem, and off a really tough stretch.
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Yea I agree with you, I played them @Am after Arnold punk ass sticking it to me by taking a safety at the end the ou game. I like the d a lot, I think Vandy gonna have a really hard time generating offense much like the Mizzou gm and 3 qrtrs of the Texas game. Think they pretty limited if ya take pavia runs and the middle the field away. Getting rid that clown freese certainly can’t hurt but I dunno if I trust any the qbs? Think I just prefer the Vandy tt under cause aub hasn’t allowed anyone to put up 27 on them and I don’t Vandy being the team to clear it.
 
one unit

Nebraska +2 / ML (MB)

>> smaller for now - waiting to add at 3? - playing the backup QB angle (DR hasn't been that great anyway), plus fading the Bruins.....riding high off 3 great wins ("hey we're not bad actually") - then getting destroyed by INDY ("maybe we do suck") ....then having a week to think about it .....WITH Ohio State on deck. Huskers with the much better team (SP+ has this at Neb -14 / no QB adjustment) - line should probably be Neb -2'/3 at least.

smaller

UConn +10 (-117 BM)
BC +11 (MB)
Temple +7 (MB)
WF +7 (-115 LV)


UCONN - tough spot for Duke (@ Clemson / VIRGINIA) - playing for ACC title (no incentive to get margin here). Huskies should be able to move the ball here, Duke can be disruptive, but pass D weak / UConn O is #1 in havoc prevention. UConn QB playing well. Might bump this one up - especially if I can get a cheap hook.

BC - BC stinks but has played well and covered their last 2 vs Louisville and ND. Fading SMU, who plays to opponent's level this year.....stinking up the field in every game except Clemson and Miami. Off one of their biggest wins in program history / bye on deck. BC typically plays slightly better in their Red Bandana game.

Temple - a must win for Temple (5 wins / Tulane and NTX on deck). Off a nasty loss vs ECU / bye on deck, they can move the ball - almost / shoulda beat Navy. Army hasn't played well at home (0-3 ats)

WF - regression type play here..... Virginia riding a lucky, shaky streak of close games / Duke on deck. Wake off big loss vs Fla St - weak O / QB play but D can be disruptive - should manage to stay close, but need a fast start.
 
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bookieassassin said:
one unit

Nebraska +2 / ML (MB)

>> smaller for now - waiting to add at 3? - playing the backup QB angle (DR hasn't been that great anyway), plus fading the Bruins.....riding high off 3 great wins ("hey we're not bad actually") - then getting destroyed by INDY ("maybe we do suck") ....then having a week to think about it .....WITH Ohio State on deck. Huskers with the much better team (SP+ has this at Neb -14 / no QB adjustment) - line should probably be Neb -2'/3 at least.

smaller

UConn +10 (-117 BM)
BC +11 (MB)
Temple +7 (MB)
WF +7 (-115 LV)


UCONN - tough spot for Duke (@ Clemson / VIRGINIA) - playing for ACC title (no incentive to get margin here). Huskies should be able to move the ball here, Duke can be disruptive, but pass D weak / UConn O is #1 in havoc prevention. UConn QB playing well. Might bump this one up - especially if I can get a cheap hook.

BC - BC stinks but has played well and covered their last 2 vs Louisville and ND. Fading SMU, who plays to opponent's level this year.....stinking up the field in every game except Clemson and Miami. Off one of their biggest wins in program history / bye on deck. BC typically plays slightly better in their Red Bandana game.

Temple - a must win for Temple (5 wins / Tulane and NTX on deck). Off a nasty loss vs ECU / bye on deck, they can move the ball - almost / shoulda beat Navy. Army hasn't played well at home (0-3 ats)

WF - regression type play here..... Virginia riding a lucky, shaky streak of close games / Duke on deck. Wake off big loss vs Fla St - weak O / QB play but D can be disruptive - should manage to stay close, but need a fast start.
Click to expand...
Love that angle on Temple ..GL champ 🤙🏼
 
extra small at BM

Cal +10' 1H
Navy +17 1H

Both Irish and Louisville, like to start slow in this type game - then finish strong (esp on D)....
* Cal strong starters on the road, 5 wins / bye on deck - should compete for awhile (D cannot be trusted 2H) - UL with Clemson on deck
* Irish (@ Pitt next) probably jack around early - roll late


smaller at LV (-112)

Mizzou +7

* just a hunch they stay close - Aggies getting WAY too much love - regression time for (historically) a horrific road team?
 
bookieassassin said:
extra small at BM

Cal +10' 1H
Navy +17 1H

Both Irish and Louisville, like to start slow in this type game - then finish strong (esp on D)....
* Cal strong starters on the road, 5 wins / bye on deck - should compete for awhile (D cannot be trusted 2H) - UL with Clemson on deck
* Irish (@ Pitt next) probably jack around early - roll late


smaller at LV (-112)

Mizzou +7

* just a hunch they stay close - Aggies getting WAY too much love - regression time for (historically) a horrific road team?
Click to expand...
Great balls on those first halves BA.

Well capped!
 
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