Week 11

TreyDawg

TreyDawg

Pretty much a regular
Sides: 17-14 +1.075u
ML: 12-15 +2.23u
Totals: 3-7 -4.68u
Teasers: 16-20 -9.89u
Parlays: 8-16 -4.585u
Overall: 56-72 -15.85

Back for more punishment after the week 6 debacle. Dropped a little over 11 units last time out. Awesome. Work has been extremely busy so haven't had time to mess with anything on this front. Prolly just wasting time here but still enough time to turn it around but it's getting dark early so need to get movin. Will post plays in window 1 and try to get a few thoughts in window 2. Let's see how we do....

Sides:

Panthers -7 (3.45/3)
Raiders pk (1.65/1.5)
Rams +3 (1.875/1.5)
Bucs +5.5 (1.65/1.5)
Broncos pk (1.65/1.5)
Packers +1 (1.65/1.5)
Cardinals -5 (1.65/1.5)
Bills +7 (1.65/1.5)

ML:

Bucs +210 (1/2.10)
Rams +125 (1/1.25)
Bills +285 (1/2.85)

Totals:

Chiefs/Chargers o45 (1.65/1.5)
Raiders/Lions o49.5 (1.65/1.5)

Teasers:

2T 7PT (1.4/1) each
Panthers pk/Raiders +7
Panthers pk/Rams +9.5
Panthers pk/Broncos +7
Panthers pk/Packers +8
Panthers pk/Bucs +12.5
Panthers pk/Seahawks -5.5
Panthers pk/Cardinals +2
Panthers pk/Bills +14

Parlays:

Panthers ML/Seahawks ML/Cardinals ML (2/2.124)

:shake: GL FELLAS :shake:​
 
Last edited:
A few thoughts:

Panters -7
Washington may be making progress but they're not on this level yet or even close. Carolina been rolling through flat spots and maybe their style of play reduces those I dunno. Maybe this could be a flat spot but I don't see the Skins in their class. Skins 4-1 at home and 0-4 OTR losing to NYG by 11, Atl by 6, NYJ by 14, and NE by 17. Carolina much better than 3 of those 4 IMO. Skins have given up 32, 25, 34, and 27 OTR for an avg of 29.5 and Panthers scoring 28.8 avg in 5 home games. Which means there's a pretty good chance Carolina gets to 28 or more and for a cover Washington (scoring 17.5 per OTR) would need to score well above their season avg against the best D they've seen all year at that. Plus the Skins don't fare well when Cousins turns it over. Pressure comin in his face this weekend and I don't think he handles it well. I'm buying the Panthers at a premium but I don't see the Skins being able to hang here.

Raiders pk
If the Raiders are making progress, which I believe they are, this is a game they win. Better team here and the two teams are going in different directions. Short and sweet the Lions just suck.


Rams +3
Don't like the Rams as much on the road so holding my nose kind of here. But the Ravens are bad, real bad. Rams D should be able to limit the Ravens and control the rock with Gurley. Lost season for the black birds and they're 0-6-1 ATS this year as a fav and 0-4 at home this year. Betting against that streak can be dangerous but I think we have the right formula here with the D and running game controlling the lines of scrimmage.

Bucs +5.5
Sanchize huh? No thanks. Straight fade here of Marky Mark. Chipper has his work cut out for him for sure. Bucs gonna surprise some folks here getting a road win.

Broncos pk
If I woulda told you before the season that this game was a pk in week 11 no matter who the QB's were you may have told me I was crazy. Stepping in front of the Bears who have played better the past 2 weeks may be crazy with Osweiler but this Bronco D is legit. Osweiler may be addition by subtraction at this point with how Peyton is playing and trying to be a hero and play through injuries. Run it, play D, and manage the game should be all he has to do. Broncos off 2 straight losses with the Pats on deck need this one badly. Max effort here IMO and I think they have plenty of talent to take care of the Bears (who many were leaving for dead a few weeks ago) who I expect to come back to Earth after all the love I've been hearing for them.

Packers +1
Simply a buy low sell high play on the Pack. Vikes gettin love too and the sky is falling in GB. Minny won 5 straight and needs to be careful not to be over confident here. AAron will figure it out and right the ship. R-E-L-A-X.

Cardinals -5
Best team in the west and the win last week says a lot about this group. It woulda been easy for them to fold the tent on the road to the division champ but it didn't happen. That's the kind of win great teams build on. And at home they're tough. I'm expecting Dalton to be Dalton we've grown to love any time soon. Cincy a different team OTR. Beatdown comin.

Bills +7
I know I know. This is a waste of money. Brady in prime time, Beli > Rex, NE > Buf, etc. Don't really have much to go on other than a gut feelin NE stubs its toe at some point in the next 2 weeks. Like the short week here with the Pats traveling to Den on deck as well. I expect Rex to make some adjustments and not let Brady shred his D like last time and Brady doesn't have his 2nd favorite target. I think this may be closer than most think with Buf having a shot to win at the end.
 
The panthers line does look too easy at first sight but I guess their big win last week against one the biggest fraud/overrated teams in pro sports makes it make sense?
 
Yeah and I'm a huge Skins fan. A win here would be a big step for them this year but not sure they're ready for a win like this just yet without someone handing it to them. We shall see. Thanks and GL to you D
 
nbafan88 said:
The panthers line does look too easy at first sight but I guess their big win last week against one the biggest fraud/overrated teams in pro sports makes it make sense?
Click to expand...

i think the Skins puttin 47 on the Saints may have helped keep it down a little but we're paying a premium to back the Panthers at this point too though. So maybe they balance each other out his week. Car -3/-4ish @ FedEx sounds reasonable. I threw out the Skins game last week since it was against the Saints and the Panthers won in a tough spot even though it was the Titans. Carolina been good at home and Skins terrible on the road so I'm good with the 7. GL today NBA
 
TreyDawg said:
i think the Skins puttin 47 on the Saints may have helped keep it down a little but we're paying a premium to back the Panthers at this point too though. So maybe they balance each other out his week. Car -3/-4ish @ FedEx sounds reasonable. I threw out the Skins game last week since it was against the Saints and the Panthers won in a tough spot even though it was the Titans. Carolina been good at home and Skins terrible on the road so I'm good with the 7. GL today NBA
Click to expand...


You only give a 3 point difference for the game being in Carolina? More like 6 IMO

the line seems short... Good luck
 
nbafan88 said:
You only give a 3 point difference for the game being in Carolina? More like 6 IMO

the line seems short... Good luck
Click to expand...

Yeah you could be right. But how much higher could they have opened and had a pretty even split? Seems money is coming in on Wash at +7 and at +10 it would be heavily weighted to the dog IMO. My play is mostly based on the fact that Carolina is miles better than anyone Wash has played this year besides maybe NE. If they can hang here in Carolina they can have my money. Cousins has 7 int in 4 road games and they can't afford any turnovers today. I don't think he's capable of the kind of game it's gonna take here. I've been wrong a lot this year and could be wrong again. But the Skins OTR so far this year say otherwise. We'll see.

Thanks for stopping by and GL to you today NBA
 
Throwing in the towel on totals for the year. I've always totally sucked and thought maybe I could get back to at least even but at this point it ain't gonna happen. It's the worst of my bad season so far and I don't see a light at the end of the tunnel. Hate to give in but gotta do it. Ugh
 
Redskins rant:

So Cousins didn't disappoint yesterday but to be real the refs kinda fucked the flow of that game up. Not saying the Skins woulda competed anyways but the phantom call on Culliver was the turning point. There's no way that was a personal fould and was a 14 pt swing in the game. At that point it was a 14-14 game and the Panthers had dominated the game. Seen that script before where one team dominates and the other gets a couple of big plays (bomb to Jackson, KO return TD) and hangs around gaining confidence. But that call changed the course of that game IMO. Not sure what happens if that play stands and it's 21-14 Washington but I'm guessing the energy on that sideline is much different as well as the play calling. Felt like I was on the wrong side until after that play. The body language told the story and once they got down and had to throw Cousins handled it about how I expected him to. He's a serviceable backup but not a QB of the future type and I hope they figure something out on that front because I think they finally have a few pieces to the puzzle. I really don't know what this organization is going to do because they'll be horrible until Snyder moves on which will never happen. They've needed a QB since the 90's and just can't make the right decisions or develop talent. So frustrating to be a fan of that organization.
 
Great hit on Carolina man. They were a strong lean for me but I went with the Jets instead :/ Mistake! Good luck tonight TD
 
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