Week 11 Writeups and Hopefully Feedback

Br@ssknux

Br@ssknux

Pretty much a regular
Finally a good week last week, 10-4, which brought the season total almost back to a coin flip (69-70-4). Week 11 is here. I say this every year, but it is remarkable how fast the college football season flies by. It'll be interesting to see how many of these teams that are relatively new to the pressure of being highly ranked respond now that the first iteration of the order of invitations to the College Football Penny Loafer Clinking Glasses Cigar Chomping Invitational is out. Back in the days of the 4 team playoff, you could always count on the newest member of the top 4 to lose. No clue how that's going to work this year.

Looks like another week of no ESPN/Disney for YouTube TV, so that means I'll be without the SEC again because I'm sure as shit not plunking down more money to those assholes as they attempt to shake Google and their existing customers (in some cases) for more money. I mentioned this in last weeks thread, but Disney, after quietly buying FuboTV last week now owns every reasonable streaming alternative to YouTubeTV(legal anyway). Also, even if you have the ESPN+ App, they still blackout the ESPN/ABC/ESPN2/SECN/ACCN games if you are subscribing to a service that they aren't currently shaking down. The only positive last week was that their viewership of those network's games were down pretty significantly, so maybe they'll have some incentive to have reasonable carriage rates. We'll see, but I'm on Google's side here. Man, I NEVER thought I'd ever say those words.

No Illini this week, but who cares because I get them wrong almost every week. On to the week.

USC -14 WIN
Indiana -14.5 LOSS
Mississippi State +9.5 LOSS
BYU +11.5 LOSS
Temple +7 WIN
Maryland +2.5 LOSS
Missouri +7 LOSS
Iowa +6.5 WIN
UCONN +8.5 WIN
Wisconsin +11 WIN
Wake +7 WIN
Kentucky +3.5 WIN
Nevada +9.5 LOSS
UCLA +1 LOSS

7-7


1. @USC -14 v Northwestern(BOL): USC is certainly a terrible bet on the road since they've joined the Big Ten, but they're a hell of a bet at home during that period, having gone 7-1 as a home favorite ATS and 8-2 at home overall. The biggest difference for them is on the defense, as they tend to play with confidence and aggression on that side of the ball in the Colosseum. Offensively, it's never an issue for them as they rank 1st in yards per play, 5th in yards per rush and 4th in yards per pass attempt even after a pretty horseshit offensive effort in Lincoln last week(through the air anyway). Northwestern is alright defensively, but who have they played that compares to USC in the comfort zone? Answer: Nobody. They competed pretty well in a sleepy 11AM spot on the long grass on the lakefront against Oregon, but this will be a different animal Friday night. USC averages almost 600 yards per game at home this year and has not played a game in the Coloseum in almost a month(blew out Michigan). I don't think the Cats are going to keep pace, especially since USC is a much saltier defensive crew at home, and also since the Cats struggle mightily defensively on 3rd down(117th) while the Trojans convert at an elite rate(5th). Preston Stone has been better lately, but he's got a ton of turnover issues in his past(especially this year) and he's due. If he gets careless, this one could be over early.

This one went about how I thought it would, although there were some things to be impressed with for Northwestern. They caught a bad break when Maiava hustled back and knocked the ball lose to result in a touchback on the big guy INT return late in the first half. I also really like the RB Komolafe for the Cats. If they could find a late 200's early 2010's era Northwestern QB(Persa, Basenez) rather than Stone, they would be a problem. Ultimately, they couldn't trade scores with the Trojans though.
 
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2. Indiana -14.5 @Penn State(BR): You say it's probably not a good idea to lay more than 2 TDs in Happy Valley? How do we know, right? Somebody probably came up with the last time the Nits were this level of home dog, but I'm sure it's been a hell of a long time. Also, I'm more than fine with it. Indiana has the edge in every conceivable category of any significance. Penn State's numbers match their record. They're 101st in yards per play on offense, they're 84th in yards per rush attempt against on defense, 105th on 3rd down on defense, 112th in yards per pass on offense, you name it, they are bad at it. New starter Ethan Grunkmeyer for Penn State has a horrific sub 50 PFF passer grade so far, (against good defenses to be sure) but he's facing another one this week, and the Hoosiers certainly won't make it easy on him. The Nittany Lions might have blasted their load in the first half last week in Columbus as they eventually wilted and were completely dominated in the second half. Now they have to face a team that might be just as good, and Indiana is more than happy to pour it on, as they've proven several times this year. Penn State might not get off the field at all on 3rd down at all as the Hoosiers lead the country in 3rd down offense, and this is assuming that Indiana regularly makes it to 3rd down. I'm not getting in front of this freight train. I made the mistake of hesitating last week...I'm not going to be foolish like that again. Indiana is motivated to get as much margin as they can here.

Kudos to Penn State because they had this game won with one more stop, but they couldn't get it. Championship teams always have games like this, where you are sure you're going to lose but you pull it out. Great final drive by Mendoza and the catch by Cooper was seriously as good a catch I can ever remember at the college level. It wasn't value for Indiana, but I don't think it's ever a good play to fade Cignetti so I stuck with him. Going forward, IU is going to have to start treating this like a 16 game season, so I don't think I'll be on them unless there's silly value on their side. Surratt was out and other guys are banged up. They'd be smart to just rest these guys the next two weeks.
 
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I learned my lesson bout Hoosiers when they kicked ducks ass In Eugene, they a freaking freight train ya have to be crazy to get in their way with an offensively challenged team. Never know if this good or bad but love the card this week, expect to see us line up on several doggies.

Hate how the season always feels bout over when I really start gaining traction! (Of course there years I come out hot and it can’t end soon enough also🤣). Expect you to keep the momentum going my dude. Looking forward to seeing what ya come up with. GL
 
BOL Brass - Like both of these plays also. USC has been $ at home, and though NW is ok defensively they don't generate any pass rush only 12 sacks and are not opportunistic team with -4 TO ratio. If they get down early, the script will not be good for them either as they are pedestrian passing offense.
 
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Timh said:
BOL Brass - Like both of these plays also. USC has been $ at home, and though NW is ok defensively they don't generate any pass rush only 12 sacks and are not opportunistic team with -4 TO ratio. If they get down early, the script will not be good for them either as they are pedestrian passing offense.
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Pedestrian actually being nice, watching stone throw can be painful:
 
Wanted to play USC tonight but I don't like all the noise surrounding Riley and I especially don't trust him to get a team focused with that in mind.

Now with that bit of insight they'll probably win 45 - 17.
 
2daBank said:
I learned my lesson bout Hoosiers when they kicked ducks ass In Eugene, they a freaking freight train ya have to be crazy to get in their way with an offensively challenged team. Never know if this good or bad but love the card this week, expect to see us line up on several doggies.

Hate how the season always feels bout over when I really start gaining traction! (Of course there years I come out hot and it can’t end soon enough also🤣). Expect you to keep the momentum going my dude. Looking forward to seeing what ya come up with. GL
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Thanks as always Bank! Always appreciate your contributions.
 
Timh said:
BOL Brass - Like both of these plays also. USC has been $ at home, and though NW is ok defensively they don't generate any pass rush only 12 sacks and are not opportunistic team with -4 TO ratio. If they get down early, the script will not be good for them either as they are pedestrian passing offense.
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Let's hope so Timmy! Thanks as always and best of luck to you too.
 
3. @Mississippi State +9.5 v Georgia(BR): I was on Florida last week against Georgia, and I was almost on the receiving end of yet another ankle grabber as Stockton kneeled on the one yard line in order to run out the clock rather than give the ball back to Florida. It was the right play by Stockton, but rest assured, I was quite grateful to the lad. Had Georgia covered that, it would have been the first time the entire game they were covering and you could make a case that once again, the benefit of a referee's call was instrumental in Georgia's win. Had the refs called a long pass on 3rd and 4 to Georgia's 20 yard line with 3 and change minutes left a catch, Florida might win the game. In that case, they would have won that game while not even playing all that well. That team is now 3-5. Lagway was missing guys all day long, Dallas Wilson got hurt early and caught only one ball, and the Gators amassed only 281 yards. Despite all that, Georgia could have lost to them. That game continued a trend of games that Georgia needed favorable calls or lucky breaks to win. They could have lost to Tennessee, and the refs stole a game from Auburn on their behalf, which the SEC has basically admitted by permanently suspending the referee who worked that game. Now they travel to Starkville in a terrible spot, coming off that emotional comeback win and with Texas on deck next week. Mississippi State has done nothing but compete with people, other than the 4th quarter at A&M(of course I was on MSU in that one). They should have beaten Tennessee, only to lose in OT, Texas needed a miracle to beat them in Starkville, and they threw a late in the red zone pick at Florida only to lose by 2. Georgia has no ability to rush the passer and has struggled to cover people all year, so I think Blake Shapen will be able to put up some numbers and points against them. Georgia is now 1-6 away from home in SEC play over the past 2 years. Anything more than a TD is good enough for me here. Just hoping some late voodoo magic doesn't get us via the front door.

Whatever. I'm so sick of Georgia. So this is the week Georgia shows up and blows someone out, (in a horrible spot no less)and in the same instance, THIS is the week Mississippi State barely shows up. Mississippi State has failed to cover two games this year and I've written both of them up.
 
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Br@ssknux said:
3. @Mississippi State +9.5 v Georgia(BR): I was on Florida last week against Georgia, and I was almost on the receiving end of yet another ankle grabber as Stockton kneeled on the one yard line in order to run out the clock rather than give the ball back to Florida. It was the right play by Stockton, but rest assured, I was quite grateful to the lad. Had Georgia covered that, it would have been the first time the entire game they were covering and you could make a case that once again, the benefit of a referee's call was instrumental in Georgia's win. Had the refs called a long pass on 3rd and 4 to Georgia's 20 yard line with 3 and change minutes left a catch, Florida might win the game. In that case, they would have won that game while not even playing all that well. That team is now 3-5. Lagway was missing guys all day long, Dallas Wilson got hurt early and caught only one ball, and the Gators amassed only 281 yards. Despite all that, Georgia could have lost to them. That game continued a trend of games that Georgia needed favorable calls or lucky breaks to win. They could have lost to Tennessee, and the refs stole a game from Auburn on their behalf, which the SEC has basically admitted by permanently suspending the referee who worked that game. Now they travel to Starkville in a terrible spot, coming off that emotional comeback win and with Texas on deck next week. Mississippi State has done nothing but compete with people, other than the 4th quarter at A&M(of course I was on MSU in that one). They should have beaten Tennessee, only to lose in OT, Texas needed a miracle to beat them in Starkville, and they threw a late in the red zone pick at Florida only to lose by 2. Georgia has no ability to rush the passer and has struggled to cover people all year, so I think Blake Shapen will be able to put up some numbers and points against them. Georgia is now 1-6 away from home in SEC play over the past 2 years. Anything more than a TD is good enough for me here. Just hoping some late voodoo magic doesn't get us via the front door.
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Only difference is I rolled with 1st half given Uga penchant for slow starts and seemingly never covering 1st. After covering aub and ol miss after not most the game I had enough 🤣 It was very nice getting gators out the way at halftime and not having to stress more that shit! Until proven otherwise gonna keep playing against Uga 1st halves then maybe look to get them super cheap live if they fall behind.
 
4. BYU +11.5(-115) @Texas Tech (BOL): I can see why people are on Tech here because of how well they've played on defense in addition to some of the games that BYU has squeaked out of, but I can't get to 11.5 in this matchup. The best team on both BYU and Texas Tech's schedule is Utah, and both of these teams beat the Utes. Tech did it at Utah and more convincingly, but Devon Dampier was not healthy in that game while he was at BYU. Tech has a statistical edge, but mostly due to their defensive numbers, but those numbers have come against a pretty weak schedule of offenses. Overall, Tech's schedule is ranked 75th per Sagarin, while BYU's is ranked 49th. This BYU offense will be the best offense the Red Raiders have faced, and I think BYU's defense matches up pretty well with the Tech offense. I don't think Texas Tech will be able to run it on BYU, and believe it or not, now that LJ Martin is back, BYU might have a better shot of running it on Tech than vice versa. Tech doesn't have any identifiable weaknesses, but there's not much you can nitpick on the Cougars either. BYU is always a good bet as a road dog, and I am terrified for Tech at the thought of Behren Morton having any kind of recurring injury(which he is definitely a candidate for, given his history) because 3rd stringer Mitch Griffis is not a guy that can lead them to anything. I certainly understand the love for Tech, but BYU is tough and resilient and I trust Sitake in this spot. The line has gotten too high in my opinion and BYU can certainly sneak in the back door if need be.

Probably shouldn't trifle with Texas Tech (and A&M). BYU's defense pretty much did their part but the offense could not get out of their own way even though they moved the ball pretty well early. 11 was value, but not when you can't score, turn it over 3 times and have good drives end in missed FGs.
 
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2daBank said:
Only difference is I rolled with 1st half given Uga penchant for slow starts and seemingly never covering 1st. After covering aub and ol miss after not most the game I had enough 🤣 It was very nice getting gators out the way at halftime and not having to stress more that shit! Until proven otherwise gonna keep playing against Uga 1st halves then maybe look to get them super cheap live if they fall behind.
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Can't argue with that. Smart tends to adjust too. That was most notable in that 4th quarter they had against Ole Miss.
 
5. Temple +7 @Army(BOL): We have some line value here because Temple is coming off their worst game of the year, having been pummeled by ECU at home last week, and it was ugly. The Owls got outgained 614 to 233. They had a similar one sided loss early in the year to Oklahoma and they bounced back with 5 straight solid performances. That's a sign of good coaching, and there's no doubt that KC Keeler has proven himself to be that over the years. This is a team that has taken care of the dregs such as Charlotte and UMass and also beat UTSA 27-21 and an improving Tulsa team on the road. As for this matchup, I have it as a statistical tossup, and Temple already played Navy, dropping a one point game that they should have won as they outgained the Middies 518-384. I think the Owls will move the ball here and their run defense held up well when they played Navy in an obviously similar scheme. QB Evan Simon has been very reliable for the Owls, as he sports a 24/1(!!) ratio. Army isn't great as a home favorite either, as they've gone just 4-6-2 in that role since 2023. This looks like a bounce back for the Owls to me. One more win gets them bowl eligible, and this is probably their best shot as they have Tulane and North Texas left after this one.

Love the seven point road dogs. It was a sweat late because Army was on the doorstep, but cooler heads prevailed and this ended how it should have. It was a dead heat game with Temple outgaining the Cadets by a few yards. 7 for either side in this one was a bargain.
 
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Thought about taking BC at 10.5 in the Welles Crawther bandana game against a vulnerable opponent in SMU, but man...I just couldn't justify it. The scoreboards have looked a little better for the Eagles the past two weeks but those boxscores still indicate a non-competitive team.
 
6. Maryland +2.5 @Rutgers(BOL): Under Schiano, Rutgers is 6-19 ATS at home in Big ten games. I used to recommend playing whoever the favorite was in Rutgers Big Ten home games, but they've been blowing games they're favored in too over the past couple of years. This Rutgers defense is perhaps the worst among power 4 teams, ranking terribly in just about every category. Schiano took more control of the defense last week, and they showed a bit of improvement against the pass, but they still gave up just about every 3rd down and never really stopped Illinois all day. They'll get a little class relief with Maryland's offense, but the same can be said for Maryland who just got sone playing Indiana. If Maryland's receivers can catch the ball, they should move the ball against this defense. Rutgers has been good gathering yardage on offense, especially against the pass, but on a per play basis, they rank 119th on the ground and 80th overall in yards per play. Maryland's defense is solid, last week's effort against Indiana notwithstanding. They rank 39th in yards per play against, 27th against the pass and can pressure the QB, a weakness for the Rutgers OL. Rutgers numbers are skewed by the disastrous game they had with Oregon, but for the year they are a net -2.5 yards per play behind their opponents while Maryland is dead even, albeit against a weaker schedule. I show Maryland with an edge in virtually every meaningful category, so I'll take the points here.

If you can't average better than 3.5 yards per attempt against this Rutgers pass defense, I don't know what to tell you. The Terps averaged 10 yards per carry and had 296 yards at halftime but couldn't do anything after that. I didn't think Rutgers couple play defense like that, but I underestimated how bad this Maryland pass attack must be. 15 completions for 98 yards? Malik Washington almost beat that passing total with one run in the first drive. Bad.
 
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7. @Missouri +7 v Texas A&M (BR) : Not many people are giving Mizzou a chance here because Beau Pribula has been lost for the year and the Tigers are forced to start true freshman Matt Zollers. I'm not sure it's that big of a downgrade. A switch to a true freshman is certainly not ideal, but Pribula's clear strength is running, not necessarily throwing. When Pribula was knocked out of the Vandy game, the Mizzou pass game got better under Zollers, who was cold off the bench. He coordinated a TD drive and got Kevin Coleman involved. The Tigers ran 77 plays, so they were able to sustain drives with Zollers and they ate clock like crazy despite not really clicking in the running game, a rarity for them. Now they come in off a bye, so Zollers has had a full 2 weeks of tutelage after his initial baptism and will be in the friendly confines of his home stadium. A&M comes in off perhaps their best performance of the year at LSU 2 weeks ago and a shiny new #3 ranking, best in the SEC. With that ranking comes the pressure to perform, but they also have the comfort knowing that even if they drop this game they are still comfortably in the playoff. Other than at the QB position, this Mizzou team is solid. They're 8th in yards per play against on defense , they're 7th in sack rate and they run the ball extremely well with Ahmad Hardy and Jamal Roberts. That's one area that A&M is a bit vulnerable, as they can he had on the ground. The 2 best rushing offenses they've played are UTSA and Arkansas, and both topped 200 yards on the ground. Mizzou is on par with those two, so there's a good chance they can make some noise there. A&M has been great, especially on defense, but I don't think they're running the table. If Mizzou can hold their own on special teams and keep KC Concepcion "in the park" so to speak an out of the end zone on punt returns, I think Mizzou can keep this close and maybe pull off the outright.

I think I mentioned that I had acknowledged that Elko had firmly implemented his persona/culture on this A&M program, so it probably wasn't wise to assume A&M will inevitably revert to habits of their past, but then I completely ignored myself and played this game. Mizzou was never really in this game. I should have assumed about TJ Letief what I assumed about Zollers in this one.
 
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8. @Iowa +6.5 v Oregon (BOL) : Like most that I've seen, I like the Hawkeyes here. Ultimately, Oregon has made their bones offensively on 3 of the worst defenses in the country: #135 (in yards per play) Rutgers, #129 Oklahoma State and #116 Oregon State. Against the 3 best defenses they've played, Indiana, Wisconsin and Northwestern(the last two of which aren't that great) they've gained 267, 335 and 373 yards respectively. Now they go on the road to Iowa City in bad weather(which will slow them down) to play a defense better than all of them other than Indiana. Kinnick Stadium is a very tough place to play, and Iowa has had a knack for big runs in recent years in their run game and I think they profile to have some success on the ground in this one. They won't be able to throw it, that's for sure because Oregon is ranked #1 in the country in pass yards per play. The intangibles should be on Iowa's side in this one as they clearly have among he best special teams in the country (with Wetjen) and Dante Moore could be due for some mistakes, which have littered his past. Now that Penn State has fallen apart, there isn't much on their resume, and Iowa showed out at home and almost knocked off an Indiana team that nobody else has been able to handle, including the Ducks. This should be close, at least.

Good call here. Iowa started slow but settled in and once they did that, this cover was never really in doubt. Shockingly, a special teams gaffe ended up costing the Hawkeyes the win. Without the fluke safety on the punt snap, Iowa kicks the XP on the last TD and Oregon has to score a TD on the last drive.
 
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Br@ssknux said:
Finally a good week last week, 10-4, which brought the season total almost back to a coin flip (69-70-4). Week 11 is here. I say this every year, but it is remarkable how fast the college football season flies by. It'll be interesting to see how many of these teams that are relatively new to the pressure of being highly ranked respond now that the first iteration of the order of invitations to the College Football Penny Loafer Clinking Glasses Cigar Chomping Invitational is out. Back in the days of the 4 team playoff, you could always count on the newest member of the top 4 to lose. No clue how that's going to work this year.

Looks like another week of no ESPN/Disney for YouTube TV, so that means I'll be without the SEC again because I'm sure as shit not plunking down more money to those assholes as they attempt to shake Google and their existing customers (in some cases) for more money. I mentioned this in last weeks thread, but Disney, after quietly buying FuboTV last week now owns every reasonable streaming alternative to YouTubeTV(legal anyway). Also, even if you have the ESPN+ App, they still blackout the ESPN/ABC/ESPN2/SECN/ACCN games if you are subscribing to a service that they aren't currently shaking down. The only positive last week was that their viewership of those network's games were down pretty significantly, so maybe they'll have some incentive to have reasonable carriage rates. We'll see, but I'm on Google's side here. Man, I NEVER thought I'd ever say those words.

No Illini this week, but who cares because I get them wrong almost every week. On to the week.

1. @USC -14 v Northwestern(BOL): USC is certainly a terrible bet on the road since they've joined the Big Ten, but they're a hell of a bet at home during that period, having gone 7-1 as a home favorite ATS and 8-2 at home overall. The biggest difference for them is on the defense, as they tend to play with confidence and aggression on that side of the ball in the Colosseum. Offensively, it's never an issue for them as they rank 1st in yards per play, 5th in yards per rush and 4th in yards per pass attempt even after a pretty horseshit offensive effort in Lincoln last week(through the air anyway). Northwestern is alright defensively, but who have they played that compares to USC in the comfort zone? Answer: Nobody. They competed pretty well in a sleepy 11AM spot on the long grass on the lakefront against Oregon, but this will be a different animal Friday night. USC averages almost 600 yards per game at home this year and has not played a game in the Coloseum in almost a month(blew out Michigan). I don't think the Cats are going to keep pace, especially since USC is a much saltier defensive crew at home, and also since the Cats struggle mightily defensively on 3rd down(117th) while the Trojans convert at an elite rate(5th). Preston Stone has been better lately, but he's got a ton of turnover issues in his past(especially this year) and he's due. If he gets careless, this one could be over early.
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Well done, nice start.
 
9. @UCONN +8.5 v Duke(BR): Duke is in a great spot in the ACC race, and they have a massive game against Virginia at home next week, so this game shapes up to be pretty meaningless and in a heck of a sandwich spot. If they lose it, it really has no bearing on the conference race and they are in the same shape they were prior to the game. As for the matchup, UCONN's offense is legit. Duke can usually stop the run, but UCONN's forte is throwing the ball with QB Joe Fagnano who has an incredible 22-0 TD/INT ratio and a 14/4 Big time throw to turnover worthy play rate per PFF. Duke is 127th against the pass and 93rd on 3rd down, so it will probably be hard for Duke to get off the field here. Defensively, UCONN has nice numbers, but they've played zero offenses that can move the ball like Duke can with Mensah, so they'll probably have to outscore them Ultimately, Duke has been pretty boneheaded and has made all kinds of mistakes leading to turnovers both on offense and in the return game, so it wouldn't surprise me if they giftwrapped some presents for the Huskies in this one. I just don't see the motivation for Duke here in a sandwich non-con spot and on the flip side, this is the kind of game that a program like UCONN lives for, so they'll be ready to give a great effort. In addition to the motivational edges, I definitely see some fundamental edges for UCONN as well, so I'll certainly take the points with the home dog.

^^^^^^^^^
 
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10. @Wisconsin +11 v Washington (BR) : If Wisconsin is ever going to show some life in their program this year, at least in terms of actually competing for a win, this might be the week. They've actually shown some gumption defensively, and although they gave up plenty of yards, they've kept some teams within shouting distance on the scoreboard when things were looking like they might be about to take a massive beatdown. They scored early and were never in danger of getting blown out at Michigan, and last week in Eugene, they mucked up that game and held Oregon to only 335 yards and just over 5 yards per play. This week, the Wisconsin AD (who himself might be on borrowed time) announced Luke Fickell is coming back for another year, so that might help with the effort, and you couldn't ask for a better opponent to come in than Washington if you're looking for a spark. The Huskies have been completely incapable of playing their A game on the road in conference games since they joined the Big Ten. They are 0-7 ATS on the road and they've won only one of them outright. Demond Williams might be able to throw the ball effectively, but he has been getting off to terrible starts and I do think Wisconsin is set up to be able to be pretty competitive against the run. Offensively, Washington can't get pressure unless they blitz incessantly and they've been terrible on third down, so this might be a defense that Wisconsin can operate against, considering the gauntlet they've faced so far in conference(working backwards: Oregon, Ohio State, Iowa, Michigan, Maryland). Wisconsin has played the #2 schedule in the country. Even SEC fans would concede as much. I've also heard they might end the horrendous Hunter Simmons experiment and go back to Danny O'Neill with some true freshman Carter Smith sprinkled in. Good! It can't possibly be worse than Simmons who is giving them absolutely no shot to be competitive on the offensive end. Looks like now or never for the Badgers, and it always makes sense to fade Washington coming East.

Washington has to be an auto fade coming East until they prove otherwise. I mean, Wisconsin completed 5 passes on 17 attempts for 1.4 yards per attempt and still won. Defense played well, but any competent team wins that game in Camp Randall yesterday. The difference between Home Washington and Road Washington is the biggest of any team in the country,
 
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11. Wake Forest +7(-121) @Virginia(BR) : It's a little expensive, but I bought this to 7. Am I really going to step in front of this Cavalier luck train this week? Well, yes! Virginia has cashed a couple tickets for me this year, but I was pretty lucky to win both of them, and this team has had a horseshoe, a lucky rabbits foot and a shamrock shoved so far up it's collective rectum this year that it's not worth even chronicling. Just pull up the box scores. I'll wait. Did you see? I know! The long and short of it is that after a very competent start, the Tony Elliott/Chandler Morris offense has been figured out by good defenses. Louisville, North Carolina and Washington State all held this offense to 300 yards or less, and now Wake steps in, and they might be the best defense of all of those. We're getting a nice number here because Wake is coming off getting clobbered in a bad spot by a Florida State team that was due to take things out on somebody, but the Deacs are sitting at 5-3 and I think these 2 teams are very evenly matched. In addition, Elliott, who nobody has ever described as "cerebral" has a massive game on the horizon next week at Duke. Their loss against Nc State was a non-con game, so they are still undefeated in conference and can actually take a loss and still be fine. Elliott is lining up against a coach in Jake Dickert that I think he's probably trailing in the acumen department, (I'm trying to be polite), so I certainly will take the points with a good defense and a smart coach against a team in a rough spot. Will the good fortune continue for Virginia? I hope not, but if it does, I'll think I was on the logical side anyway.

Wake D is legit, as we've said, but we caught some breaks here. Virginia was due, and they were not a team playing as if they could run away from this Wake team, but Wake only had 203 yards for the game. They got a punt return TD and got some turnovers. I won't apologize for a 7 point dog winning the game outright by 7 however. Right side baby!
 
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Agree on all but BYU. Utah put up almost 500 yards, Dampier looked hurt in the 2h, and they had 2 bad turnovers and 12 penalties. TT was mortal with that backup but Morton is fantastic and once he shook the dust off last week it was a blowout. BYU winning by one score at Colorado and Arizona now looks pretty weak.

That’s all I have to say. Everything else I like a lot. Hope you have a great week!
 
12. @Kentucky +3.5 v Florida (BOL): There was a lot to like about Kentucky's defense last week. They were playing an Auburn offense that has not been good, but they were on the road as a significant dog and completely shut them down, sacking both QBs the Tigers played 7 times. Offensively, they did nothing, but the Auburn defense is very legit, especially at home. Now Florida comes in after dropping a tough one to Georgia, and we have to ask what they have left to play for. Dj Lagway went back to looking very pedestrian last week, and I don't know who Lagway has left to throw to. Most of his receivers have been banged up all year, but now both Dallas Wilson and Eugene Wilson Jr(who caught 9 balls for 121 yards and a TD, representing half of their offense) are out. Defensively, they have a great rep and have looked good at times but they rank 104th in yards per pass attempt and 102nd on 3rd down and since Caleb Banks has been out, they haven't been able to get much pressure. Cutter Boley has engineered a couple a nice offensive performances his last two times playing at home against Tennesee and Texas, so I think he'll find some comfort in this one. Prior to last year's debacle, Kentucky had covered 7 in a row against Florida and has beaten them outright 3 of the past 4 times they've played so there isn't any aura hanging over Kroger Field when the Gators show up. I show Kentucky with an edge on paper in this one so I'll take the FG+ with the home dog here.

Florida scored first, and then it was a rocking chair from there. 401/247 yard edge, Lagway benched, but they had no juice on offense as we figured.
 
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Inspekdah said:
Agree on all but BYU. Utah put up almost 500 yards, Dampier looked hurt in the 2h, and they had 2 bad turnovers and 12 penalties. TT was mortal with that backup but Morton is fantastic and once he shook the dust off last week it was a blowout. BYU winning by one score at Colorado and Arizona now looks pretty weak.

That’s all I have to say. Everything else I like a lot. Hope you have a great week!
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Can't argue with your points. Just think it's too high. Lord knows I've been wrong before though. And I'm as cognizant of the front door as I used to be about the back door these days.
 
13. Nevada +9.5 @Utah State (BR) : This game kind of jumped out at me because I show Nevada with a slight edge on paper in the relevant metrics, and the Wolf Pack has been a much better team on the road in conference this year than at home. They've lost to Fresno by 3 and New Mexico by 2 when traveling, and both of those teams are better, especially defensively than Utah State is. The Aggies rank 117th in yards per play against and they have been run on by just about everyone, ranking 122nd. Despite the fact that they've struggled at it, Nevada would much rather run, and they should be able to have success. Defensively, the Wolf Pack aren't dominant by any stretch but they haven't been a push over, and see it as pretty likely that they'll do enough to be in this one just like they've been for the other roadies they've embarked on.

DUMB. My numbers like Nevada, but this was as bad a miss as I've had all year. It was 34-0 at the half. There were 25 better games to bet than this.
 
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Not going to write this up, but how high is this Navy line going to go with ND? I know ND clobbered them last year (and I was on it at 14) but if this thing gets to 30(which it might) how many times is ND going to get the ball? Last year Navy coughed it up 3 times and threw a pick that led to I think 2 direct TDs If Navy can avoid that this year, I think ND would have to score every time they have the ball to cover this spread because Navy can and probably will move the ball on them.
 
14. @UCLA +1 v Nebraska (BR): At worst this looks like a -110 pick em game, but I found a point at BR so I went with it. If you watched Nebraska last week, you caught a glimpse of true Frosh TJ Lateef. Now Lateef is an actual colllege QB. He played twice before that in garbage time and did fine, but he looked so lost in that game last week that it appeared he had never thrown a football in his life. Maybe he will improve from a week of practice, but I think UCLA is probably confident that they can crowd the bx and dare him to beat them through the air. On the other side, Nebraska is among the worst run defenses in the country, and they provide it again last week by giving up gobs of yards to USC's walk on 3rd stringer King Miller. They are 120th in yards per rush allowed and that's one thing UCLA can certainly do, run the ball. I would recommend to Jerry Neuheisel that he not throw a single pass this week, because Nebraska is great in pass defense. Bug Ten teams that head west, especially at night, are always behind the 8 ball, and I think UCLA has a lot of fundamental advantages in this one.

Kudos to Lateef. He had decent games against creampuffs before this so I should have given some credence to him playing well. I thought the UCLA backs would run it better though. I also was very skeptical that Nebraska could pull off a game like this in a tough spot with the backup. To their credit, they did it. I'll tip my cap on that one.
 
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I'm out for now, but I'm likely going to add at least one more, maybe 2 on the night slate. See you later
 
Br@ssknux said:
Thought about taking BC at 10.5 in the Welles Crawther bandana game against a vulnerable opponent in SMU, but man...I just couldn't justify it. The scoreboards have looked a little better for the Eagles the past two weeks but those boxscores still indicate a non-competitive team.
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Same here, spot says yes but nothing bout the matchup looks all that good for bc, not to mention it really tough to justify only getting 10 when Clemson laid 13.5 at bc and ville was just 25 point favs over them at home. Dont think ville all that much better than smu and we know clemson isn’t. Far as the matchup bc offense is weak everywhere smu d is strong, pass protection, turnovers, red zone. If I trusted bc to compete I’d prob be looking at Jennings over passing prop cause don’t think bc has a snowballs chance stopping him, just don’t know if he be in a position where they need to throw in 2nd half and it a big number. Maybe if smu comes out flat I’d look to play them live but that only interest I have here. Bc hasn’t stayed within a score of any team with a pulse and even if the spot bad I think smu still has everything in front of them far as acc and a playoff birth, losing here would ruin the season.
 
Inspekdah said:
Agree on all but BYU. Utah put up almost 500 yards, Dampier looked hurt in the 2h, and they had 2 bad turnovers and 12 penalties. TT was mortal with that backup but Morton is fantastic and once he shook the dust off last week it was a blowout. BYU winning by one score at Colorado and Arizona now looks pretty weak.

That’s all I have to say. Everything else I like a lot. Hope you have a great week!
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I like tech also, have all year, but was really hoping this be like a td not more than freaking 10! I did make a small tech -6.5 1st half play, I think they roll it just tough to lay the number.
 
Br@ssknux said:
8. @Iowa +6.5 v Oregon (BOL) : Like most that I've seen, I like the Hawkeyes here. Ultimately, Oregon has made their bones offensively on 3 of the worst defenses in the country: #135 (in yards per play) Rutgers, #129 Oklahoma State and #116 Oregon State. Against the 3 best defenses they've played, Indiana, Wisconsin and Northwestern(the last two of which aren't that great) they've gained 267, 335 and 373 yards respectively. Now they go on the road to Iowa City in bad weather(which will slow them down) to play a defense better than all of them other than Indiana. Kinnick Stadium is a very tough place to play, and Iowa has had a knack for big runs in recent years in their run game and I think they profile to have some success on the ground in this one. They won't be able to throw it, that's for sure because Oregon is ranked #1 in the country in pass yards per play. The intangibles should be on Iowa's side in this one as they clearly have among he best special teams in the country (with Wetjen) and Dante Moore could be due for some mistakes, which have littered his past. Now that Penn State has fallen apart, there isn't much on their resume, and Iowa showed out at home and almost knocked off an Indiana team that nobody else has been able to handle, including the Ducks. This should be close, at least.
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Last time Iowa was a home dog with revenge late in the season (after game 8) was that 55-24 beatdown of Ohio State as 20-point dogs in 2017.
 
Br@ssknux said:
9. @UCONN +8.5 v Duke(BR): Duke is in a great spot in the ACC race, and they have a massive game against Virginia at home next week, so this game shapes up to be pretty meaningless and in a heck of a sandwich spot. If they lose it, it really has no bearing on the conference race and they are in the same shape they were prior to the game. As for the matchup, UCONN's offense is legit. Duke can usually stop the run, but UCONN's forte is throwing the ball with QB Joe Fagnano who has an incredible 22-0 TD/INT ratio and a 14/4 Big time throw to turnover worthy play rate per PFF. Duke is 127th against the pass and 93rd on 3rd down, so it will probably be hard for Duke to get off the field here. Defensively, UCONN has nice numbers, but they've played zero offenses that can move the ball like Duke can with Mensah, so they'll probably have to outscore them Ultimately, Duke has been pretty boneheaded and has made all kinds of mistakes leading to turnovers both on offense and in the return game, so it wouldn't surprise me if they giftwrapped some presents for the Huskies in this one. I just don't see the motivation for Duke here in a sandwich non-con spot and on the flip side, this is the kind of game that a program like UCONN lives for, so they'll be ready to give a great effort. In addition to the motivational edges, I definitely see some fundamental edges for UCONN as well, so I'll certainly take the points with the home dog.
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Since the beginning of the 2023 season, teams are 2-20 ATS after playing Clemson reasonably competitively (won, or lost by less than 22) and 1-11 ATS after beating Clemson.
 
Br@ssknux said:
9. @UCONN +8.5 v Duke(BR): Duke is in a great spot in the ACC race, and they have a massive game against Virginia at home next week, so this game shapes up to be pretty meaningless and in a heck of a sandwich spot. If they lose it, it really has no bearing on the conference race and they are in the same shape they were prior to the game. As for the matchup, UCONN's offense is legit. Duke can usually stop the run, but UCONN's forte is throwing the ball with QB Joe Fagnano who has an incredible 22-0 TD/INT ratio and a 14/4 Big time throw to turnover worthy play rate per PFF. Duke is 127th against the pass and 93rd on 3rd down, so it will probably be hard for Duke to get off the field here. Defensively, UCONN has nice numbers, but they've played zero offenses that can move the ball like Duke can with Mensah, so they'll probably have to outscore them Ultimately, Duke has been pretty boneheaded and has made all kinds of mistakes leading to turnovers both on offense and in the return game, so it wouldn't surprise me if they giftwrapped some presents for the Huskies in this one. I just don't see the motivation for Duke here in a sandwich non-con spot and on the flip side, this is the kind of game that a program like UCONN lives for, so they'll be ready to give a great effort. In addition to the motivational edges, I definitely see some fundamental edges for UCONN as well, so I'll certainly take the points with the home dog.
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About the "sandwich non-con spot" -- that's not a comfortable situation for Diaz. He's only been in it once, in 2019, in game 11 after beating FSU and Louisville by big margins in games with small lines. His Hurricanes lost outright to FIU as -19.5.
 
Great stuff last week, Br@ss. Heavy 'dog- to- favorite ratio (12/2) so far this week; like that a lot. And one in the win column already. BOL.
 
Was hoping more 7 or more on Hawaii but I don't think it's getting there. Gonna take a pass there and not going to add anything else. BOL to everyone.
 
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Br@ssknux said:
Was hoping more 7 or more on Hawaii but I don't think it's getting there. Gonna take a pass there and not going to add anything else. BOL to everyone.
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Smart move. Had a writeup written for that one and UNLV. Passed. Should have posted them. More content is better than less, right?
 
Well, that was pointless. I was hoping UCLA would help me out late but alas, it was not to be, so we end up at .500 for the wee, 7-7. Season total remains underwater at 76-77-4. It was an impactful week though with a lot of great games. I'll have recaps done as soon as I can.
 
Br@ssknux said:
3. @Mississippi State +9.5 v Georgia(BR): I was on Florida last week against Georgia, and I was almost on the receiving end of yet another ankle grabber as Stockton kneeled on the one yard line in order to run out the clock rather than give the ball back to Florida. It was the right play by Stockton, but rest assured, I was quite grateful to the lad. Had Georgia covered that, it would have been the first time the entire game they were covering and you could make a case that once again, the benefit of a referee's call was instrumental in Georgia's win. Had the refs called a long pass on 3rd and 4 to Georgia's 20 yard line with 3 and change minutes left a catch, Florida might win the game. In that case, they would have won that game while not even playing all that well. That team is now 3-5. Lagway was missing guys all day long, Dallas Wilson got hurt early and caught only one ball, and the Gators amassed only 281 yards. Despite all that, Georgia could have lost to them. That game continued a trend of games that Georgia needed favorable calls or lucky breaks to win. They could have lost to Tennessee, and the refs stole a game from Auburn on their behalf, which the SEC has basically admitted by permanently suspending the referee who worked that game. Now they travel to Starkville in a terrible spot, coming off that emotional comeback win and with Texas on deck next week. Mississippi State has done nothing but compete with people, other than the 4th quarter at A&M(of course I was on MSU in that one). They should have beaten Tennessee, only to lose in OT, Texas needed a miracle to beat them in Starkville, and they threw a late in the red zone pick at Florida only to lose by 2. Georgia has no ability to rush the passer and has struggled to cover people all year, so I think Blake Shapen will be able to put up some numbers and points against them. Georgia is now 1-6 away from home in SEC play over the past 2 years. Anything more than a TD is good enough for me here. Just hoping some late voodoo magic doesn't get us via the front door.

Whatever. I'm so sick of Georgia. So this is the week Georgia shows up and blows someone out, (in a horrible spot no less)and in the same instance, THIS is the week Mississippi State barely shows up. Mississippi State has failed to cover two games this year and I've written both of them up.
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This one was a head scratcher for sure...like you I really liked the spot.
 
lvmike32 said:
I know some folks like Lebby for some bigger jobs but imo he needs to do a little more at msu first. Like win games like. Great start there but ways to go.
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Lebby didn't do much at Oklahoma either. He took over a program that had been full of great QBs and WRs for years and left the program with only duds at QB and WR. He decided Jackson Arnold was so good they told Gabriel they couldn't use him
 
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