Week 11 Writeups and Hopefully Feedback

Br@ssknux

Br@ssknux

Pretty much a regular
Hi All,

I used to be a much more regular poster here but over the past couple of seasons, due to a move, way more responsibility at work and kids stuff, I haven't been able to devote enough time to capping games. This year has been more of the same, but I found myself able to spend some quality time capping this week so I thought I'd re-visit my favorite spot on the web and contribute.. Full disclosure, I've severely limited my plays this year and after a hot start I've settled in at 47-37 for the year. (..5595, just slightly better than a coin flip.) I'll continue adding a few tomorrow and throughout Friday. As always, let me know what you think.

1. @Minnesota +7.5(-120) v Penn State: Like most sane people, I find myself nauseated by the entire PJ Fleck experience. Everything about it is awkward and uncomfortable. The clown suits on the sidelines, the ambiguous cliched cadence he uses, and most of all, the intense, borderline cultish mania of overall environment is downright...creepy for lack of a better term. However, he's got himself a good team, and they've played sound football, especially recently, after a fortunate start. Tanner Morgan has proven himself competent thanks to a couple high quality wide receivers and their offensive line can run block as well. Defensively, we all understand that they've benefited from facing weak and injured competition, but they've still held opponent to 98 yards below their average output. Now Fleck also has the motivation of having 5 2 loss teams ranked ahead of them in the CFP rankings, and Penn State, with the same record, is up there at #3. Historically, teams struggle once they have to deal with the spotlight of being in the top 4, and Penn State is a great bet in my opinion to not last there long. Had the Bell kid not dropped that late potential TD pass, we might be talking about Penn State as a team that found a way to blow a 3 TD lead to a Michigan team that was legendary for it's inability to compete in tough environments. In my opinion, more than a TD is too much to lay in this situation.
 
2. Purdue +2 @ Northwestern: I feel bad fading the Cats here because Pat Fitzgerald has made me a ton of cash covering spreads over the years, but almost never in the home favorite role, even in their competent years. As we all have seen, this is not a competent year for Northwestern, who sports an offense that has topped 300 yards only once all year, and a quarterback group with a 2/11 ratio. Purdue has not been any great shakes this year themselves, but they are 13-3 in their last 16 as a road dog while the Cats have failed to cover their last 5 as a home favorite. Purdue is down to their 3rd string QB, but Aiden O'Connell engineered the game winning drive last week after Plummer's injury and has a full week of practice under his belt with #1 reps with Brohm's full attention. If the Boilers can manage 17 points they should be fine in a role that suits them.
 
3.Baylor -2.5 @ TCU: Great spot for Baylor here...another undefeated team that can take motivation from a perceived slight in the CFP rankings. They are also coming off a clunker last Thursday which allowed a smart coach the ability to get his teams attention in the added days of preparation for this game. Baylor has actually been much better on the road this year with all of their sub-par efforts being at home (WV, Texas Tech, etc). On the road, they've handled both Oklahoma State and Kansas State, and their offense is versatile and avoids turnovers. TCU is terrible ATS in conference in recent years, especially at home and they face disadvantages throughout the matchups when you look at the fundamental handicap on paper. Under Ruhle, Baylor deserves the benefit of the doubt that they'll take care of business on the road. It's a short number in my opinion.
 
4. Louisville +7 @Miami(FL): From a purely fundamental handicapping perspective, in my opinion this line seems about right, as Miami's defense is miles ahead of Satterfield's at this point and, and I actually think Miami's offense, despite being the inferior one, has a better matchup against the Louisville D than vice versa. So why the play on the Cards? This is all about the coaches, and Miami finding themselves in a terrible spot in which they almost never perform well, as a home favorite and off the Florida State game. It seems as though Diaz has excelled when not much is expected of him, and he's flopped when expected to win. If Miami comes out and plays with emotion and takes care of business in front of 22,000 strong, I'll tip my hat, but I think the more likely scenario is that Satterfield and his energized team comes in and puts forth a good effort on them.
 
5. Wake -2 @ Virginia Tech: Although I was glad that VT covered rocking chair style last week in South Bend, it was far from an impressive performance by the Hokies, especially from their offense. They've turned to athletic QB Quincy Patterson, but under his direction they only managed 240 yards and 12 first downs. Patterson is completing only 35% of his throws, and was only effective when he threw 50/50 balls and back should fade attempts in the passing game. There's value on Wake here because the score was 21-20 in South Bend, but that was due to a 99 yard fumble return just before half more than how well the Hokies played. Now they come back to Blacksburg, where they've been less than impressive(note the Duke curb stomping and a couple of ho hum efforts against ODU and Furman) to face a Wake squad who is on a roll. Wake should be able to throw it on the Hokies with Newman apparently healthy and they've been stellar on 3rd down on both sides of the ball. They aren't 7-1 by accident. Wake's been easily the better team all year and think that will be evident here.
 
6. Kansas State +7 @Texas: I was lucky enough to see the Red River Shootout in person, and let me tell you, It was a ton of fun and I'm glad I went. I emotionally didn't have a dog in the fight but my major takeaway was just how atrocious the Texas tackling was. I also was surprised at how little Sam Ehlinger threw the ball downfield. I like K State here because in my view we have a couple teams who are polar opposites. Kansas State under Kleiman is pretty evidently a difficult team to play against. Texas, on the other hand, is very easy to play against. When you don't tackle anyone on defense and don't muster any pass rush (109th in sack %), you are easy to play against When you play sideways offense, which is what Ehlinger has apparently been asked to do this year, that's easy to play against as well. Throw in the fact that Texas is miles better in the dog role than the favorite role and that K State is building momentum with the new coach, and I can see K State being a pain in the rear for opponents in the coming weeks and in seasons to come.
 
7. @Wisconsin -9.5 v Iowa: Although one would think that Ferentz and the Hawkeyes would be a logical play when getting this volume of points, I am not going to be quick to jump in that direction. First of all, although Wisconsin has come back down to earth the past 2 games, we can't forget how dominant the Badgers were prior to the Illinois game, and the majority of that work took place at home. We should also note that Iowa is 2-8 in their last 10 as a road dog, and their non covering performance at Michigan when the Wolverines were begging the Hawkeyes to take that game from them looms large here. This is a below average Iowa offense that has had all kinds of trouble running the ball due to shortcomings in the interior of their offensive line, and their QB Stanley has proven many times that he can't be trusted in big games, especially on the road. Despite coming off the humbling the endured in Columbus, Wisconsin's D is still #1 in the country in yards per carry and yards per pass attempt, so I don't see Iowa scoring much here, Wisconsin regains it's mojo here back on it's home turf. I can see a 27-7 type game.
 
8. @La Tech -5.5 v North Texas: I'm having a hard time figuring out why a 7-1 La Tech squad is only a 5.5 point favorite at home against a 4-5 Mean Green outfit that's beaten nobody this year. I'm guessing it's due to a level of respect for Mason Fine's ability to throw the ball and the fact that he appears to be healthy, but even with that being the case, it looks like there's value on the favorite here. As I mentioned, UNT has beaten only terrible teams this year (Abeliene Christian, UTEP, UTSA and Middle (at home, and barely). They've found ways to get blown out just about every other week this year, and the mojo they had with Graham Harrell calling the plays in recent years seems to be missing. LT on the other hand has been taking care of business despite J'Mar Smith's penchant for boneheaded plays. Fundamentally, this is a bit of a mismatch on paper, and I see no reason why both teams will continue to be what they've been all year. If that likely scenario plays out, this will end up somewhere in the 45-24 range. Asking this UNT team to take LT to the wire in Ruston is far fetched in all likelihood.
 
Glad to see you make a cameo. I saw you browsing a few weeks ago and was hoping you might grace us with a thread. Awesome reads, as always. I have plenty to comment on once fully awake.
 
Br@ssknux said:
Hi All,

I used to be a much more regular poster here but over the past couple of seasons, due to a move, way more responsibility at work and kids stuff, I haven't been able to devote enough time to capping games. This year has been more of the same, but I found myself able to spend some quality time capping this week so I thought I'd re-visit my favorite spot on the web and contribute.. Full disclosure, I've severely limited my plays this year and after a hot start I've settled in at 47-37 for the year. (..5595, just slightly better than a coin flip.) I'll continue adding a few tomorrow and throughout Friday. As always, let me know what you think.

1. @Minnesota +7.5(-120) v Penn State: Like most sane people, I find myself nauseated by the entire PJ Fleck experience. Everything about it is awkward and uncomfortable. The clown suits on the sidelines, the ambiguous cliched cadence he uses, and most of all, the intense, borderline cultish mania of overall environment is downright...creepy for lack of a better term. However, he's got himself a good team, and they've played sound football, especially recently, after a fortunate start. Tanner Morgan has proven himself competent thanks to a couple high quality wide receivers and their offensive line can run block as well. Defensively, we all understand that they've benefited from facing weak and injured competition, but they've still held opponent to 98 yards below their average output. Now Fleck also has the motivation of having 5 2 loss teams ranked ahead of them in the CFP rankings, and Penn State, with the same record, is up there at #3. Historically, teams struggle once they have to deal with the spotlight of being in the top 4, and Penn State is a great bet in my opinion to not last there long. Had the Bell kid not dropped that late potential TD pass, we might be talking about Penn State as a team that found a way to blow a 3 TD lead to a Michigan team that was legendary for it's inability to compete in tough environments. In my opinion, more than a TD is too much to lay in this situation.
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Great to see you back.

When these teams who've played no one actually encounter high levels of athleticism, speed and the like for the first team, it's always a shock to their system and it takes some time to acclimate. If they can acclimate.

And I'm always concerned about teams in this high-profile spot for the first time and whether they will wet the bed or not.

I just struggle to back Minnesota. We'll see how it plays out tomorrow.
 
Br@ssknux said:
7. @Wisconsin -9.5 v Iowa: Although one would think that Ferentz and the Hawkeyes would be a logical play when getting this volume of points, I am not going to be quick to jump in that direction. First of all, although Wisconsin has come back down to earth the past 2 games, we can't forget how dominant the Badgers were prior to the Illinois game, and the majority of that work took place at home. We should also note that Iowa is 2-8 in their last 10 as a road dog, and their non covering performance at Michigan when the Wolverines were begging the Hawkeyes to take that game from them looms large here. This is a below average Iowa offense that has had all kinds of trouble running the ball due to shortcomings in the interior of their offensive line, and their QB Stanley has proven many times that he can't be trusted in big games, especially on the road. Despite coming off the humbling the endured in Columbus, Wisconsin's D is still #1 in the country in yards per carry and yards per pass attempt, so I don't see Iowa scoring much here, Wisconsin regains it's mojo here back on it's home turf. I can see a 27-7 type game.
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Excellent write-up and really how I see it going as long as Wisconsin is mentally ready to finish the season strong. Great point about being at home, it feels like forever since they have played at home.
 
Frank Costanza said:
Great to see you back.

When these teams who've played no one actually encounter high levels of athleticism, speed and the like for the first team, it's always a shock to their system and it takes some time to acclimate. If they can acclimate.

And I'm always concerned about teams in this high-profile spot for the first time and whether they will wet the bed or not.

I just struggle to back Minnesota. We'll see how it plays out tomorrow.
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Hard to argue with what you've said and you couldn't script a better scenario for Minny as far as how their schedule has shaken out with opposing QB injuries. Also get what you're saying about the step up in class, but I don't think I hold Penn State in that kind of regard. If they were playing OSU/Georgia/Bama etc I could see them getting overwhelmed, but I don't know that Penn State is superhuman in athleticism. Fleck has also won his last 5 as a dog outright, so you could make a case they respond well to the higher competition in a dog role.
 
B.A.R. said:
Excellent write-up and really how I see it going as long as Wisconsin is mentally ready to finish the season strong. Great point about being at home, it feels like forever since they have played at home.
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Thanks BAR. I don't see Iowa as significantly better on offense than Michigan or MSU, if at all, and we know what the Badger D did to those two. Even if Iowa has success, they'll likely only manage field goals, and once they get behind and Stanley has to make plays.....oh boy. I'm probably gonna try to find a yes prop on a Wisconsin defensive TD.
 
I've got a few more later but time for this one now:

9. @Fresno State -6 v Utah State: Unfortunately, this isn't your older brother's Utah State squad, as the efficiency, gumption and intestinal fortitude we remember from the Matt Wells squads appears to be long gone. I think Gary Anderson's aura has effectively seeped into the program, and based on what we've learned about him in his last two stops, I don't think that's a good thing. Fresno under Tedford has been a goldmine since his arrival in Fresno, but this year has been a bit of a step back, as the Bulldogs have been humbled a bit, especially in box scores. They had a resourceful win at Hawaii last week, so that ability to gut out wins is still there. This play is more of a fade of Utah State. Under Wells, I'd absolutely expect them to bounce back after the performances they've rolled out there the past few weeks, but under Andersen? No. They appear to be a mess in all phases. For example, two weeks ago they were horrendous on offense, with only a 128 yard output against AirForce, and then last week BYU piles up 639 yards on their defense. Even with NFL draft darling QB Jordan Love they rank 92nd in rushing yards per carry and 95th in passing yards per attempt. Defensively they're getting torched through the air.(109th) Love has a 9/12 TD/INT ratio. My point is, all this data tells you that this is not a well tuned outfit, and that any positive karma left by Matt Wells appears to be long gone. Asking them to peel themselves off the mat in a tough venue with this flimsy leadership is a bit of a big ask in my opinion, so I'll lay the 6 with Tedford here.
 
Hey - welcome back!

I'm seeing Ferentz as 3-6-1 ATS his last 10 as a road dog (ratjher than 2-8), but here's a number to think about:

Ferentz as a road dog of 2 to 12.5 points has gone under all 12 times by an average of 15.58 points.
 
Yes Utah State is a shell of their former self...and for Jordan Love, much like Josh Allen's last year at Wyoming, when you lose all the supporting cast and OL one man can't overcome it all.

Figures the two weeks after I ML'd against Utah State, aware of their deficiencies, that is when started losing games to similar talent teams. Sometimes you see it, it's just the wrong opponent and situation to target, like it was for me with Nevada (thanks a lot Malik Henry).
 
I like a lot of those. Namely Baylor and Ville. Good reads.

I been saying I know nothing bout minny all year but now im super curious cause have no idea with this stuff you saying bout Fleck! Lol
 
10. @Georgia -16.5 v Missouri: I think it's safe to say that we've all been waiting to see the dominating Georgia squad that we all expected. Unfortunately, there hasn't been a lot of evidence of it in their body of work this year. The Notre Dame game was underwhelming, we had the shocking loss to South Carolina and then the Dawgs followed that up with a sleep inducing effort against Kentucky. Throughout all this time however, the defense has performed and the offensive efforts have improved to the point that they are up to 12th in the country in yards per play. Now they get Mizzou, and it would be the understatement of the century to say they've "struggled on the road." A loss to Wyoming to open the season, an unfathomable loss to Vandy in which they were thoroughly outplayed, and a whimpering 29-7 beatdown at the hands of a Kentucky team that doesn't even try to throw the ball. Their home performances have been solid, but they'll be a long way from Columbia on Saturday night, and they'll be dealing with a team that's rounding into the shape we expected from them since August. Georgia has the edge all over the field, but especially on defense. I'd mention that Kelly Bryant is banged up, but he's not much of a threat anyway.
 
11. @Kentucky -1 v Tennessee: Ultimately, on paper these two teams match up pretty evenly from a statistical standpoint, but if you're telling me that all I need to cash a bet is to have a resourceful Kentucky team win outright at home against a basket case Tennessee team in what's turned into a true rivalry game, and I'm in. Despite Tennessee's descent into laughingstock status, Kentucky still views them as big brother and gets jacked to play this game. The Vols will get Kentucky's best shot even if they don't deserve it, WR playing QB or not.
 
Even though Georgia has such a slow pace, I think the defense wins this game alone. This feels like a 31-10 type of game.
 
12. Iowa State +14.5 @ Oklahoma: The Sooners get back into action off a bye after their loss to Kansas St a couple weeks ago. I think most people would assume that they'll be upset and ready to make amends, but the same is true for Iowa State, who laid an egg at home against Oklahoma State and were also off this week to stew about it. Although Jalen Hurts has put up some video game numbers, he's going to face a well coached smart defense who tackles well. Although OU will certainly get their yards, Iowa State is likely to force Hurts into some tough spots, and when that happens, he is prone to making some awful throws. In addition, Brock Purdy is highly competent under center, leading an offense ranked 7th in the country in yards per play and 14th in yards per pass attempt. The match up isn't a terrible one for the Clones, and they'll be just as motivated as Oklahoma, as another loss would just about kill any goals they set for themselves this year. They also won't be intimidated here as they walked into Norman two years ago and beat the Sooners outright. 14 points is a lot to lay here.
 
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13. Wyoming +15.5 @ Boise St: Although Wyoming will be without QB Sean Chambers, the passing game is not a huge part of the Cowboy offense. Their bread and butter is running the ball, and they do it effectively. Actually, from a fundamental perspective, I think Wyoming will have the edge on both sides of the ball in the running game as Wyoming is 12th in the country in yards per carry on offense and is 9th at stopping the run on defense. Meanwhile, Boise is just average on both sides of the ball on the ground. I also think the line adjustment from Chambers being out will help them because he didn't throw the ball much anyway, and their backup, although largely inefficient, was able to put some scores on the board last week. As we all know, Boise has struggled ATS on the blue turf and Wyoming is well suited for the sizable dog role. If Wyoming can run it effectively, this will be a rather easy number to cover.
 
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twinkie13 said:
..........patiently waits LSU-Bama writeup
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Cheers Twink!

As for Bama/LSU, just don't have a strong feel on that one. I certainly am tempted to get down on Bama at 5 or wherever it was today, since it seems like almost nobody was interested in taking them all week. My hesitation there is if Tua gets knocked out of the game. If he wasn't going to play, the backup Jones would be in there and everyone would have time to re-dedicate themselves to picking up the slack around him. If he gets hurt, they might be shellshocked.. Both teams should move the ball, but if forced to play the game, I'd have a hard time going against an Alabama team that thinks they've been forgotten about or otherwise wronged.
 
Br@ssknux said:
4. Louisville +7 @Miami(FL): From a purely fundamental handicapping perspective, in my opinion this line seems about right, as Miami's defense is miles ahead of Satterfield's at this point and, and I actually think Miami's offense, despite being the inferior one, has a better matchup against the Louisville D than vice versa. So why the play on the Cards? This is all about the coaches, and Miami finding themselves in a terrible spot in which they almost never perform well, as a home favorite and off the Florida State game. It seems as though Diaz has excelled when not much is expected of him, and he's flopped when expected to win. If Miami comes out and plays with emotion and takes care of business in front of 22,000 strong, I'll tip my hat, but I think the more likely scenario is that Satterfield and his energized team comes in and puts forth a good effort on them.
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This needed to be noticed by the way, well done.
 
Br@ssknux said:
3.Baylor -2.5 @ TCU: Great spot for Baylor here...another undefeated team that can take motivation from a perceived slight in the CFP rankings. They are also coming off a clunker last Thursday which allowed a smart coach the ability to get his teams attention in the added days of preparation for this game. Baylor has actually been much better on the road this year with all of their sub-par efforts being at home (WV, Texas Tech, etc). On the road, they've handled both Oklahoma State and Kansas State, and their offense is versatile and avoids turnovers. TCU is terrible ATS in conference in recent years, especially at home and they face disadvantages throughout the matchups when you look at the fundamental handicap on paper. Under Ruhle, Baylor deserves the benefit of the doubt that they'll take care of business on the road. It's a short number in my opinion.
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This is definitely a game that I think having the playoff ranking slight helps out even more.
 
Thanks for all the feedback BAR. Jimmy, Timmy, Press, everyone, great to hear from you. I'm interested in your opinions on this:

Regarding the Aalabama/LSU game today. Hear me out, but if I'm Alabama today, I would be starting the backup and sitting Tua. Let me know if you agree with this logic.

The ultimate goal for Bama is to win the MNC. We all know there's all kind of precedent that if they have 1 loss, the committee/CFB powers that be/Industrial Military Complex will look for ways to get them in the 4 team playoff anyway. Even though you are a 6 point favorite and playing at home, there is a real chance you lose this game partly because your QB is not healthy. I'm starting to think that if they played Mack Jones and lost, that might not be the worst thing in the world for them.

1. Jones is pretty good and the circle the wagons theory might indicate that they could win the game anyway.
2. If they do lose, they have an excuse that they didn't have the arguable best player in the country when they lost. 3. You pretty much lock in your position and don't have to play Georgia in the SEC title game, which could definitely be a loss and represents another physical game that could cost you a key injury. Let LSU deal with that.

Let's say that scenario plays out. LSU beats Bama without Tua and then loses to Georgia, let's say soundly, in the SEC title game. Who goes to the playoff? Certainly not neither of them. I think the committee picks Bama. If Bama loses to LSU WITH TUA at home today, they are probably behind the 8 ball. If I'm Saban, I'm at least considering starting Jones.
 
It is a really good theory.

I saw that thrown around a bit earlier today as well.

The only thing here, is that Bama resume is godawful this year. Now, we already know that the powers to be will bend over backwards for them to get in but this year it is going to be tougher to justify with having only played 2 ranked teams when it is all said and done.
 
I don’t see how bama could possibly get in with a loss with their Sos. Think the fact they opened 3rd says as much. Where they gonna make up the ground they would lose w a loss today?
 
B.A.R. said:
It is a really good theory.

I saw that thrown around a bit earlier today as well.

The only thing here, is that Bama resume is godawful this year. Now, we already know that the powers to be will bend over backwards for them to get in but this year it is going to be tougher to justify with having only played 2 ranked teams when it is all said and done.
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This is true, but even with that being the case(and I am very cynical when it comes to Alabama) that would mean that the committee gave someone else the benefit of the doubt over Alabama, be it either Oregon or Utah or Baylor or Penn State or even Georgia/LSU. I just don't see Alabama ever being left out when their only loss ALSO contains an asterisk in their favor. I'm sure we can come up with some scenarios where I'd be wrong, but ultimately they'd be relying on the equity they've built up, earned or not.
 
2daBank said:
I don’t see how bama could possibly get in with a loss with their Sos. Think the fact they opened 3rd says as much. Where they gonna make up the ground they would lose w a loss today?
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This is an ironclad, reasonable point. My response to that point, which is not based in any sound logic, would be that because they're Alabama, and tbecause the committee would have any reasonable excuse to put them in, they wouldn't be required to make up any ground.
 
Understood but even if I agree they one the 4 best i don’t see how it could work out for them this year,, I think it all moot anyways cause I don’t think they lose, lol. Enjoyed reading all your thoughts, Gl today
 
B.A.R. said:
It is a really good theory.

I saw that thrown around a bit earlier today as well.

The only thing here, is that Bama resume is godawful this year. Now, we already know that the powers to be will bend over backwards for them to get in but this year it is going to be tougher to justify with having only played 2 ranked teams when it is all said and done.
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This
 
That fucking Baylor game took years off my life...what a frustrating game to watch. Brewer has pigeon shit on his helmet.....and how many wide open guys did he miss all day.
 
Last one........

14. San Jose St +7.5 @ Hawaii: SJSU has had one of the biggest turnarounds of the season. They were among one of the saddest sacks in the country, and now they sit at 4-5 and would have been 5-4 if not for some tough luck last week against Boise in which they outgained and out first-downed the Broncos. Now they are catching 7.5 at Hawaii, putting the Rainbows in a home favorite role in which they have failed in 13 of their last 16 (3-12-1). Both teams are terrible on defense but Hawaii is especially horrific at pressuring the passer(113th in sack %) and SJSU throws the ball 64% of the time(2nd most in the country). I'd hate to have to cover more than a TD when it's likely I'll be giving up passing yards by the bushel.
 
Timh said:
That fucking Baylor game took years off my life...what a frustrating game to watch. Brewer has pigeon shit on his helmet.....and how many wide open guys did he miss all day.
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No doubt. But the fact that they still covered despite playing like a bunch of idiots almost all day bodes well for them, right?
 
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