Week 11 Write ups and hopefully feedback

[Br@ssknux]

Weak performance here last week, as I went 5-6. Luckily for me, I hit a reverse teaser on 4 of the wins (Florida, Ga Southern, Cincy and Pitt) so I ended up positive based on that. Hopefully we'll see some improvement on that. You could flip a coin and beat what I've posted on here so far this year (11-12). Unfortunately, this is the first week of the year (believe it or not) where I had some solid opinions on games that were postponed or cancelled due to COVID. Previously, all such games had no impact on me because I didn't like any of the matchups anyway from a betting perspective. I'm bummed out that a couple of these got cancelled this week. Hopefully it won't happen again. (Unlikely, I know)

1, Iowa -4 @ Minnesota: Both teams got off the schneid last week after starting 0-2, but Iowa's win wa more substantial than Minnesota's. The Gophers had the good fortune of playing Illinois with half their team still in COVID protocol, including 2 starting offensive linemen and most importantly their top 2 QBs. For the second straight game, Illinois was forced to play 4th stringer Coran Taylor, who has some athleticism but couldn't hit Andre the Giant with a 2 yard screen pass and turns the ball over like his life depended on it. Even better, Minnesota had the ability to review tape on him, and Fleck and company are definitely smart enough to zero in on Taylor's obvious flaws. This made the Gophers defense look much better than it is. Taylor only completed 6 passes, and if he lined up against an assortment of cleverly placed tackling dummies, he probably wouldn't have fared much better. The moral of the story is that this defensive performance by the Gophers, while timely, tells us nothing of substance and fails to wash the stench of the first two games, which led to them sporting the worst yards per play against by 2 full yards in the country. Illinois was forced to pass due to the score of the game, but when they did hand it off, they did the same thing that Maryland and Michigan did before them, as Illinois RBs Mike Epstein and Chase Brown combined for 139 yards on 15 carries (9.2 per carry) which is similar to what Michigan and Maryland did. 3 straight performances of 9+ yards per carry is a trend, and Iowa should be able to continue it this week. I remain a big fan of Minnesota's offense, as I profited greatly from it last year, but Fleck falls in love with the run despite having NFL talent in his pass game. That's fine when you're playing overmatched defenses, but they are unlikely to be able to run it like that on Iowa's defense, which is predictably stingy ((6th in yards per play against, 7th against the run). Minnesota is going to have to pile up the points in this one on that Hawkeye defense, because their defense is likely to revert back to helpless mode this week. After a rare hiccup in the road favorite role in week one at Purdue, Iowa gets back on track this week.

2. @FIU +9 (-115) v FAU: I hesitate to designate this as a "rivalry game", as far as these teams go, this is about as close to one that they are going to get. The dog has covered in 6 of the last 8 meetings, and I think this one shapes up as a good spot for the dog again. FAU is 3-1 while FIU is winless including an outright loss to FCS Jacksonville State, but those FCS games can sometimes be tough for the lower echelons of FBS, as the talent discrepancy is not very large, and the FBS teams never give the requisite effort needed to blow out some of these good FCS squads. FAU has been very good on defense, but they are putrid on offense, failing to crack 24 points in any game this year, including Charlotte and WKU, who nobody will be comparing to the 85 Bears, or even an average college defense. FIU rates better than both of those on defense, and they can throw the ball offensively, ranking 9th in passing yards per attempt. If FIU can find a way to put up 14 points, I think they'll be able to cover this game, and if they can have some success with their passing game, don't be surprised if they are in position to pull the outright in the 4th quarter. They were an eyelash away from knocking off Liberty early in the season, I can see them taking FAU to the brink here.

 

[B.A.R.]

Like that Iowa bet, no doubt about it.

 

[Br@ssknux]

Yeah BAR, have to admit I'd like 3 there a lot better, but as long as Ferentz doesn't go into maintenance mode, I like the Hawkeyes there.

 

[Br@ssknux]

3. @Michigan State +7.5 v Indiana: Going back to the well with both of these teams...diving in with MSU despite looking like a complete idiot in backing them at Iowa(as well as their putrid recent ATS performance at home, and fading Indiana, even though they were easily the better squad against Michigan and probably would have beaten the Wolverines 9 out of 10 times last week. Having said that, I still think MSU's defense is good, and I still think Indiana offense will find some tough sledding here. MSU, even after that Iowa debacle, is still 12th in the nation against the pass, and Indiana can't run the ball at all this year (111th). The same is true for MSU's rushing offense, but I think the Spartans can use their athletic wide receivers to have some success in the passing game, Both defenses will probably have the better of it, so if I can get more than a TD with the home squad facing a team way overdue for some bad fortune, I'll take it.

 

[B.A.R.]

3. @Michigan State +7.5 v Indiana: Going back to the well with both of these teams...diving in with MSU despite looking like a complete idiot in backing them at Iowa(as well as their putrid recent ATS performance at home, and fading Indiana, even though they were easily the better squad against Michigan and probably would have beaten the Wolverines 9 out of 10 times last week. Having said that, I still think MSU's defense is good, and I still think Indiana offense will find some tough sledding here. MSU, even after that Iowa debacle, is still 12th in the nation against the pass, and Indiana can't run the ball at all this year (111th). The same is true for MSU's rushing offense, but I think the Spartans can use their athletic wide receivers to have some success in the passing game, Both defenses will probably have the better of it, so if I can get more than a TD with the home squad facing a team way overdue for some bad fortune, I'll take it.

And, giant lookahead for IU.

 

[Br@ssknux]

And, giant lookahead for IU.

Absolutely. Huge sandwich game off Michigan with OSU on deck. I failed to mention that.

 

[Br@ssknux]

4. East Carolina +28 @ Cincinnati: I went ahead and bought the half point to get to 28 in this one. It's been a great ride for the Bearcats, and I've enjoyed having a front row seat the last couple of weeks, but this seems like a good spot for ECU. When you line these teams up on paper, it looks like a mismatch, and it is, but it looks like that every week for ECU. Yet, they find ways to stay in games with superior opponents, as evidenced by their games with UCF and a good Tulsa team this year. (Incidentally, the AAC acknowledged that the incompetence of the game officials screwed ECU out of a win in that game. Cincy has been near perfect the last few weeks, but their ability to cover sizable spreads was tied in Desmond Ritter's ability to pile us passing yards. Memphis and Houston's pass Ds obliged, but pass defense isn't much of an issue for ECU, rush defense is. This will lead to longer drives and make it more difficult to cover this number, especially if Holton Ahlers dent the endzone a couple times. Cincy also travels to UCF next week, so you can forgive them if they have a lack of urgency that's needed to cover 4 TD spreads after max effort covers the past 2 weeks against higher profile teams that they were trying to make a point through.

 

[Br@ssknux]

More to come tomorrow.

 

[Frank Costanza]

Thanks as always. Cincy is all about style points now and given how focused Fickell has them I think they'll really roll. I mentioned in an earlier post but I was really surprised at how completely buttoned up they were in disposing of Houston after beating Memphis in a game they had circled for 8 months.

But, full disclosure, I've become a big Fickell / Cincy fan so my opinion may be a bit slanted.

 

[Br@ssknux]

Thanks as always. Cincy is all about style points now and given how focused Fickell has them I think they'll really roll. I mentioned in an earlier post but I was really surprised at how completely buttoned up they were in disposing of Houston after beating Memphis in a game they had circled for 8 months.

But, full disclosure, I've become a big Fickell / Cincy fan so my opinion may be a bit slanted.

Can't argue with you on Fickell and how great Cincy's been. However, it is unbelievably difficult to keep up that level of meticulous execution and attention to detail. It's one thing if you're Bama or OSU and just have vastly superior talent. That isn't the case with Cincy....they are better talent wise than the likes of ECU, but not drastically so. They are hammering people with scheme, preparation and effort. In order to cover spreads like this, they have to make zero mistakes and play with an elite execution level. They've been doing it, but they're only human.

 

[Br@ssknux]

5. UTEP +7 v UTSA: This game was moved to Midland, TX to be played in the high school stadium there which probably seats more than enough to accommodate the fans interested in seeing this one even in pre-COVID times. Don't look now, but the Miners are actually a competent squad. well, by their standards they are. Usually, UTEP will struggle to crack the top 100 in virtually any statistical category, but especially defensively, they have some decent numbers. They are 34th against the run, and that matches up good with UTSA because UTSA is a running team that can't really pass downfield on anyone. Both of these teams have played close games in the majority of their games, and the way these two teams match up, I don't see much changing. UTEP has tasted victory 3 times this year, so they are used to winning and not just proving the opposition with the ultimate goal of not hurting themselves.

 

[Br@ssknux]

6. @Georgia Southern -10 v Texas St: Georgia Southern came into last week ready to play against Troy, and they delivered the goods with a nice outright win over the Trojans as a 3.5 point dog. GSU is rounding into shape as a pretty consistent team in all phases. Defensively they rank no worse than 33rd in any meaningful category, and they've been extremely good at getting off the field on 3rd down. On the flip side, Texas State can't convert a third and one against a Pop Warner squad, so it's a bad matchup for the Bobcats. TSU has hit the skids in recent weeks after hanging with some pretty good teams at the beginning of the year. They've dropped six in a row and are becoming less competitive every week. GSU on the other hand has won 4 out of 5 and still has a lot to play for. I can see everything come crashing down on Texas State this week, mostly due to how bad of a matchup GSU is for them.

 

[Br@ssknux]

7. Southern Miss +7 @ Western Kentucky: I know, another CUSA game, but trust me...I had plays on all of these power 5 cancellations, I swear! Why the Hilltoppers are a 7 point favorite against anyone, even Southern Miss, is a mystery. In today's college football, it's almost impossible to not make it into the 20s on the scoreboard, but WKU has managed that level of offensive incompetence 5 weeks in a row, and it would be 6 if they didn't fall on 20 exactly in their game against MTSU, the only FBS team they've beaten this year. If they're ever going to do it again, they better do it this week against one of the worst defenses in college football in Southern Miss. Unfortunately for them though, Southern Miss can play some offense, and they certainly can throw it, which is bad news for WKU because pass defense is not their forte (94th in yards per pass attempt against). On paper, this is as close to a dead heat as you can get other than USM's advantage against WKU's pass defense. In a game between 2 bottom feeders, I'll take the 7 point dog with the more sophisticated passing attack.

 

[Br@ssknux]

8. Boston College +14 (-120) v Notre Dame: It's a square dog play, but it's a must play in my opinion. Just a terrible spot for Notre Dame, coming into this game off the Clemson win, playing against what has been a scrappy team in BC who will be playing what they call their "red bandanna game", which honors a 9/11 hero that graduated from BC. The Eagles find inspiration with in this game regularly, as they have beaten Miami, USC and others on this weekend in the past. BC has proven their ability to compete with better teams, as we witnessed vs Clemson and North Carolina. They have enough offensive wherewithal to move it on ND, and if somewhat uninspired, the Irish have shown periods of offensive doldrums (Louisville, Duke). If ND comes in and does what Clemson and NC haven't and takes care of business despite this bad spot, I'll tip my cap and pay the man, but I think the chances are higher that they won't.

 

[Timh]

BOL on the week Brass, always enjoy your insight on the games. I particularly like Iowa play, and think what they like to do with the power running game, jumbo sets, 2 TE etc. really fits vs. Minnesota who just has terrible LB play and struggles in run support. I like the fact also that accentuating the running game will also limit the number of plays overall in this one, and if Iowa can go on multi play drives and control the clock it will work in their favor.

 

[EL CAPO]

good looking plays. I just told a buddy on the iowa minnesota game - one team has a defense. One team does not. That's all the capping you need. Like the ecu pick as well as I believe cincinnati at it's heart is not a team that likes to blow team out.

 

[Br@ssknux]

BOL on the week Brass, always enjoy your insight on the games. I particularly like Iowa play, and think what they like to do with the power running game, jumbo sets, 2 TE etc. really fits vs. Minnesota who just has terrible LB play and struggles in run support. I like the fact also that accentuating the running game will also limit the number of plays overall in this one, and if Iowa can go on multi play drives and control the clock it will work in their favor.

Thanks Timmy! GL to you as well.

 

[Br@ssknux]

good looking plays. I just told a buddy on the iowa minnesota game - one team has a defense. One team does not. That's all the capping you need. Like the ecu pick as well as I believe cincinnati at it's heart is not a team that likes to blow team out.

Thanks EL CAPO. You have to take your hat off to Cincy (or as Mike Tyson once said "I take my hand off to them". Absolutely took care of business and covered a big number when they had every excuse to play half assed. In a year like this, where there's no 4th team clearly deserving of that final playoff spot, I hope they take Cincy.

 

[Br@ssknux]

9. @Washington State +10.5 v Oregon: Although a sample size of one game can't tell us much, it is a data point, right? I'll get to that in a minute, but there's quite a few things I like about the Cougs here. First, they've covered 10 in a row in this series, and to no one's surprise, their dogged again, giving them a role with a lot of familiarity. "But Brass" you might say. "All of that ATS track record came under Mike Leach, who is now gone." This is obviously true, but the assumption would be that Leach provided them things that new coach Nick Rolovich cannot. I would suggest, however, that ultimately, the team is better off with Rolovich. You'd be foolish to suggest that the environment at WAZZOU has regressed under Rolovich. We've seen the kinds of rumors floating around about Leach and his player relationships, but Nick Rolovich appears to be a major players coach, and his resurrection of the Hawaii program was extremely impressive. As for the one game sample size, Oregon looked horrid on defense, especially against the run against Stanford, leading to a 7.1 yards per play against performance. Meanwhile, Washington State ran it all over Oregon State and they get their top RB back this week in Max Borgi. I think Rolovich can keep up the momentum in this series, and I envision a bit of a coaching Mismatch between Rolovich and Mario Cristobal.

10. Arkansas +17 @ Florida: Terrible flat spot for Florida coming off their huge win over Georgia. Arkansas is currently perfect against the number this year, and it's obvious that Sam Pittman knew what he was doing when he came in, especially when he hired his coordinators. Both Kendall Briles and Barry Odom are proving their worth, as both phases have shown huge improvements. Defensively, Florida is progressing, but they are still a porous defense and Arkansas can exploit the flat spot because they will be sky high for this game, hoping to keep the momentum going. Defensively, Arkansas has been solid. 32nd overall in ypp against, 17th against the pass (Florida's forte) and 37th on 3rd down. 17 is a lot of points here and if Arkansas can continue to play inspired ball, I like their chances.

 

[Br@ssknux]

11. Northwestern -3 @Purdue: It takes a lot for me to ignore the kind of trends that favor Jeff Brohm and Purdue in this game now that the Cats are the favorite here. Brohm is something like 8-1 as a dog and might be perfect ATS as a home dog. Meanwhile NU goes from being almost automatic as a road dog to about .500 as a road favorite. Having said all that, I'm still betting on Northwestern here, and I'll be on that side even if Rondale Moore plays(although I'd assume I'll get a better number is that happens). Northwestern's defense is extremely good so far this year, but their only Achilles heel has been that they are only adequate against the run. That won't matter here because Purdue doesn't run it well and prefers to throw it to their top notch receivers. That's perfect for the Cats who are ranked 5th against the pass and despite their talent, on a per attempt basis, Purdue is only in the middle of the pack in passing offense. The major problems for Purdue are on the other side of the ball. I am still stunned that they managed to give up almost 500 yards to an Illinois offense led by 4th string QB Coran Taylor, who I believe actually has the words "Inaccurate" and "Turnover" tatooed on his forehead. He even handed Purdue a fumble at the goal line that they happily accepted for 6 points, yet Purdue found themselves having to rely on him making about the 47th horrible decision of the game when he checked down on 4th and goal in the final minutes and Purdue escaped. Since then, Taylor had a 6 for 17 performance that led to 287 total yards against what might be the country's worst defense in Minnesota. In short, if Coran Taylor lit you up, or even had a modicum of success, you need to get back to the drawing board. Payton Ramsey is no superstar, but his a hell of a lot better than Taylor, and their running game is better than Illinois too. If Northwestern matches Illinois output and comes up with a 500 yard offensive performance, there is no way in hell Purdue will be in this game.

 

[Br@ssknux]

12. @NCState -10.5 v Florida State: After an inexplicable win over North Carolina, the Seminoles followed that win up with a couple of steps backward, a blowout loss at Louisville and a 41-17 beating from Pitt in a game they were somehow favored. Their only success this year offensively was through Jordan Travis's ability to power run and occasionally complete a pass. Well, he's out for the year and FSU does not have a competent quarterback on their roster unless they were combing the dorms for an athletic looking dude playing catch on the rec fields. The two guys left to take snaps (that I know of after equally terrible QB James Blackman bailed) are Tate Rodemaker and Chub Purdy, who have combined for about 3 yards per attempt on 50+ attempts. Throw in the fact that their offensive lines stinks, which it has for about 5 years, and the Noles are screwed on offense. Defensively, they are 110th in yards play against, 108th against the rush and 95th in yards per pass attempt. In short, any competent college football team should be able to cover 10.5 against them. So our question becomes, is NC State capable? I'm gonna give Dave Doeren and company the benefit of the doubt and say yes. I'd probably pay this number with half of the Sun Belt teams.

 

[Br@ssknux]

13. Wisconsin -6 @Michigan: I originally looked at this game and was ready to bet Michigan. My naval gazing on that subject, however, caused me to lose value day by day on what is probably the right side. My original thoughts were as follows: How would Wisconsin's offense look after 3 weeks of inactivity? Do we even know if Graham Mertz is any good, considering our only data point is that he carved up Illinois? Michigan is gonna be MAD! These are all reasonable statements, but here's some other things we know. Michigan lost to Michigan State on this field. Michigan got steamrolled by Indiana in a beating so severe, anyone who watched it would tell you that if those two teams lined up 10 times, Indiana would win 9.9 of them. Michigan cannot cover anybody. Their corners don't actually cover anyone, they just clutch and grab the receiver and then watch as the guy catches the ball anyway, and then they miss the tackle. The other thing we know is that Wisconsin has an elite level defense. Most of their players return from a top 5 squad from last year, and their scheme is consistent under Jim Leonhard. Will Joe Milton be able to move the ball on them? I doubt it. I can see people wishcasting that this Michigan team can just summon up the will to lay an unexpected beatdown on someone, a la the Notre Dame game last year, but this team has shown no indication they are capable of that.

 

[Timh]

Brass I am bucking heads in Oregon, may the best man win :cheers3: Like Ark and took 17.5. BOL my friend!

 

[2daBank]

12. @NCState -10.5 v Florida State: After an inexplicable win over North Carolina, the Seminoles followed that win up with a couple of steps backward, a blowout loss at Louisville and a 41-17 beating from Pitt in a game they were somehow favored. Their only success this year offensively was through Jordan Travis's ability to power run and occasionally complete a pass. Well, he's out for the year and FSU does not have a competent quarterback on their roster unless they were combing the dorms for an athletic looking dude playing catch on the rec fields. The two guys left to take snaps (that I know of after equally terrible QB James Blackman bailed) are Tate Rodemaker and Chub Purdy, who have combined for about 3 yards per attempt on 50+ attempts. Throw in the fact that their offensive lines stinks, which it has for about 5 years, and the Noles are screwed on offense. Defensively, they are 110th in yards play against, 108th against the rush and 95th in yards per pass attempt. In short, any competent college football team should be able to cover 10.5 against them. So our question becomes, is NC State capable? I'm gonna give Dave Doeren and company the benefit of the doubt and say yes. I'd probably pay this number with half of the Sun Belt teams.

I need noles offense to help me out a little. I’m on over 59., here’s to a 40-24 ncst win!! Gl

 

[Br@ssknux]

Brass I am bucking heads in Oregon, may the best man win :cheers3: Like Ark and took 17.5. BOL my friend!

You got me Timmy! I was listening to that one driving home...let's just say WAZZOU laying down on that last drive was not a welcome sound on the radio!

 

[Br@ssknux]

I need noles offense to help me out a little. I’m on over 59., here’s to a 40-24 ncst win!! Gl

You got there, with a TD to spare. NC State defense lost interest late, so that helped!