Week 11 Write ups and hopefully feedback

[Br@ssknux]

Ended up 9-8 last week which brings my total numbers to 77-62-4. (Not all of them have been posted here, you'll have to trust me on that.)

I was out on business in California from Sunday night all the way until last night, so I didn't even get to sniff any lines until pretty much last night. I'm sure my numbers aren't great.

1. Penn State -6.5 @ Indiana: Although Penn State is brutal offensively against any competent defense, even Christian Hackenberg, he of the #99 ranked passer rating, should be able to have his way with the Indiana defense. So far this year, IU has held one FBS offense under 27 points, and that was North Texas, who managed 24. If Penn State can manage that on Saturday, there's virtually no chance Indiana can compete with the offense they are trotting out there these days under one of the all time most overmatched QBs I can ever remember, Zander Diamont. To be fait to Diamont, there was no way he was ready to play, but that's of no consequence to us now because he is their only option. His inability to complete a forward pass makes their offense incredibly one dimensional. Diamont has a grand total of 35 passing yards on 23 attempts in 8 quarters. The Hoosiers have been outgained by a combined 651 yards in the two games he's started. Now he has to face the nations's #1 defense in yards per play and rushing yards per carry. If Indiana scores more than once on offense, I'll be extremely surprised.

 

[Br@ssknux]

2. Georgia -10 @ Kentucky: Unlike Florida, Kentucky's weakness on defense is stopping the run, so I see a major advantage for the Dawgs and their 5th ranked rushing offense against Kentucky's #77 rush defense. Georgia certainly will be looking to bounce back from that horrific performance last week, and the matchup looks pretty favorable for them on both sides of the ball. One bright spot in last week's debacle was that Hutson Mason actually threw the ball effectively downfield, racking up 319 passing yards...all in all the UGA offense was not the problem. I expect them to right the ship this week. Kentucky appears to be leaking oil after a nice run earlier this year.

 

[Br@ssknux]

3. @Purdue +17.5 v Wisconsin: In the last 2 weeks, Wisconsin has easily covered at home against Maryland, and on the road against Rutgers. They were only a 12.5 point favorite last week, but after the torching the gave the Scarlet Knights, the Badgers find themselves a 17.5 point favorite this week at Purdue. At this point, Purdue is a vastly superior team to Rutgers who has lost half their team to injury and is on their backup QB. Wisconsin continued it's very strong play defensively last week, but believe it or not, Purdue is probably the best offensive team they've faced since their opener with LSU...they've played some terrible offensive teams. Purdue is actually hitting their stride, and although they will be without their top receiver, I think they'll score some points on a Badger team that can't possibly muster up a 100% effort, coming off two blowout wins and with Nebraska on deck. Also notice that Purdue outgained Nebraska last week, and held the Huskers to just 299 yards and 2.94 yards per cary from their running backs. Abdullah got hurt in that game, but had only 1 yard on 6 carries before he went out. I think Purdue can hang here.

 

[Br@ssknux]

4.@Tulsa -14 v SMU: Square play of the week here, but in my opinion, any auto-play. Tulsa has had an ugly year, but they are playing better lately, at least offensively, looking somewhat like the Tulsa teams of the recent past. They are in dire need of a win, and at this point, SMU is playing the role of "homecoming opponent" as well as anyone. SMu appears to have just quit, and you can make a case that there are very few teams in the country that would not be a viable option as a 2 TD favorite at home against SMU at this juncture. SMU is last in the country in just about every statistical category. If Tulsa plays even somewhat competently, they should win this one going away.


5. Duke -3.5 @ Syracuse: Sometimes it's beneficial to not overthink things. You could look closely at the numbers and notice that Syracuse is strong in the running game on both sides of the ball, and that Duke is playing it's second road game in a row and try to fashion a contrarian play on Syracuse. It's also definitely true that Duke has certainly been living dangerously over the past 2 years, consistently outgained in almost every game they play. However, just take this for what it is: a team that wins against a team that loses, and Syracuse has been brutal at home this year, at least on the scoreboard. They've also had to move to their third QB. There's a colossal coaching advantage for Duke. Is there a chance that Duke wins by only a field goal and we don't cover? Sure, but when history tells us that one team figures out ways to win while the other figures out ways to lose, you take your chances.

 

[Timh]

Good stuff Brass, always enjoy reading your slant on the games. BOL this week.

 

[STEED]

GL BRASs

 

[Br@ssknux]

6. @Auburn -23.5 v Texas A&M: I really hate to lay this much but I think A&M is such a mess that I'm willing to lay it. Last week Sumlin had to suspend Kenny Hill, but the that blow was cushioned a bit because they have the #1 freshman QB in the country sitting on the bench in Brandon Allen. Unfortunately, he was lost last week. They were pretty much dominated by Lou-Monroe as the game went along last Saturday...frankly if they had to play another 5-10 minutes they probably would have lost. A&M's MO is obviously offense, but at this point, they are completely broken on that side of the ball and defense has never been this team's cup of tea. Allen led the Aggies to a whopping 243 yards last week. This A&M offense since the beginning of October is averaging 4.57 yards per play, which if extrapolated to a full year would be about 114th in the country. Simply put, this offense stinks right now, and Auburn will score at will on them. This might be a similar result to a couple weeks ago in Tuscaloosa. I'll say something like 48-14.

 

[Br@ssknux]

7. @Texas +3.5 v West Virginia: Really tough spot for the Mountaineers, and I think Charlie Strong is way overdue to get some happy occurrences after he's pretty much gotten rid of all the bad apples in that program. Tyrone Swoopes has been improving steadily...he's put together some nice performances in recent weeks, and I think he'll be facing a WV team that might be sleepwalking a bit and might not give the Horns their best effort. Also, Texas's strength is in stopping the pass, a nice matchup with an 'eer team that doesn't really care about the running the ball all that much. WV has had ho hum performances on the road against the likes of Maryland and Texas Tech. Good spot for Texas here and the whole world is on West Virginia.


8. Notre Dame +2.5 @ Arizona State: Although it's tough to knock off a team twice over a two year period, I think ND will do it here. I don't think they liked that ASU leapfrogged them in the playoff rankings this week, and ASU has been living a charmed life lately. They beat Washington on the road a couple weeks ago, but they didn't have to face Washington's starting QB Cyler Miles, and Washington was without their top 2 running backs. They beat Utah last week, but Utah was missing it's best offensive player in Dres Anderson, and their All American kicker missed a crucial overtime FG. That's not even mentioning the Hail Mary that won them the game against USC. At some point we're going to see the ASU team that staggered around like a bunch of drunks against UCLA, and if their going to beat a sound, solid team like Notre Dame, they'll have to be at their best. I think ND is the better squad, so I'll take the points.

 

[Br@ssknux]

9. Boise St -19 @ New Mexico I like playing on Bob Davie, but they've been a terrible home dog over the past couple of years. The Lobos have actually had a nice run lately, covering 3 out of the last 4, but they've been living life dangerously, having been outgained by more than 150 yards during that time. The covers have also been as a road dog, not at home. Boise on the other hand has been outgaining people by a ton, and hung 637 yards on a previously stout BYU defense their last time out. New Mexico is helpless on defense. I don't see the Lobos bucking their trend of failing to cover as a home dog here.


10. Kansas St +6 @ TCU: On paper TCU appears to be slightly better, but I don't know about almost a TD better. TCU should have lost their game with West Virginia last week if not for tremendously good fortune in the turnover department, as WV gave them 5 turnovers. They won't have such luck agaisnt K State this week, as the Wildcats have turned the ball over only 7 times all year. I should also take this moment to mention that Bill Snyder is now 35-12 ATS in conference in his second stint as K State coach. These two teams are pretty similar and evenly matched. it wouldn't surprise me in the least if K State took this one outright, so I'll take the points.

 

[Br@ssknux]

11. Ohio St +3.5 @ Michigan State: There's a lot to like about Michigan State in this game. You can make a case that hey have the best offensive player in the Big Ten (Tony Lippett) and also the best quarterback in Connor Cook. In this matchup however, I just can't decisively say that they have more than a negligible advantage in any area over Ohio State. On paper, it's a virtual dead heat with a very slight edge to OSU due to their efficiency in passing the ball and MSU's occasional lapses in that area. For me though, the factor that put me over the top is that going back to his Utah days, Urban Meyer is perfect both straight up and against the spread in games in which he has ben dogged by less than a TD. Getting all the way to 3.5 in this game is too much to pass up.

 

[Schrute]

Like your card this weekend boss

 

[Br@ssknux]

Dwight, STEED, Timmy: :shake:

 

[Br@ssknux]

12. @ LSU +7 (buy) v Alabama: Alabama has been a black hole for bettors that have backed them on the road this year, and it looks like a bit of a tall order for the Tide to pull off a cover here as well. In their previous 3 road games they have been less than impressive, losing to Ole Miss, slipping by Arkansas by a point in a game in which they gained 227 total yards and then giving up almost 400 yards to a completely one dimensional offense quarterbacked by a kid making his first start and having not played in over a year. LSU is a different team now than they were early this year, settling in offensively behind a tough run game and finding their way defensively. If Blake Sims isn't on, it's going to be a long day for the Tide offense, and if LSU can get a couple breaks, the pressure will mount. LSU would like nothing better than launching the Tide out of the playoff picture, so I think a good effort is in the offing.


13. Oregon -8 @Utah: Utah has been successful this year as a result of a couple things, their defense, and their ability to score on special teams. Although their defense is very good, it's one dimensional, and that dimension is pressuring the offense and getting TFL and sacks. They are far and away the best in the country in pressuring, and it makes up for a lot of warts when that's the case. That model worked great against more stationary targets in the pocket, but a healthy Marcus Mariota offsets those strengths. Last year, especially at the end of the year, Mariota was hurt, which severely damaged Oregon's offense, which relies so heavily on Mariota to get the rushing yardage needed in order to keep the pressure off the passing game. If the QB can actually get the pass off against Utah, teams have done well, as Utah is ranked74th against the pass, somewhat of a mismatch against the top ranked pass efficiency offense. Offensively, Utah is severely limited, especially with WR Dres Anderson out. I like the Ducks to roll here.

 

[twinkie13]

GL

Geaux Tigahs

 

[Fondybadger]

BOL like most of early ones.

 

[~Utah]

GL the rest of the way