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Week 11 What Have We Learned
- Thread starter VirginiaCavs
- Start date
Coaches overcoach...
Rams were moving the ball running a hurry-up/tempo offense...
They go back to plodding and stalled/turned it over...
They get back to that at the end and pulled out the win EVEN though they went conservative at the end of the drive...
So, Patricia has never had the players on his side...he worked on that hard this season...and now many of them are...arghhh... he needs to go, bad.
The NFL needs one more touch to overhaul the playoff system...no more auto-bid to division winners.
Rams were moving the ball running a hurry-up/tempo offense...
They go back to plodding and stalled/turned it over...
They get back to that at the end and pulled out the win EVEN though they went conservative at the end of the drive...
So, Patricia has never had the players on his side...he worked on that hard this season...and now many of them are...arghhh... he needs to go, bad.
The NFL needs one more touch to overhaul the playoff system...no more auto-bid to division winners.
Big daddy naught
Pretty much a regular
That no one wants to tackle King Henry in the 4th q
Coverdatspred
Curious About George Costanza‘s Modeling Career
If the Raiders make the playoffs they will be that team that nobody wants to play.
Gandolf
Leader of the Van Buren Boys
Pitt-Balt gets moved to Sunday afternoon. Juju grousing on twitter about losing their showcase moment, but the Ravens are going to be screwed, playing shorthanded on Sunday and then having to turn around on short rest against Dallas, who gets the full week to prepare. Of course its Dallas, so that will mitigate the damage.
twinkie13
In transit, arriving late.
Run it
Joe Public
Gabibbo's Finest
Hey, cool thread, can I hijack it?
What’s going on you beautiful degenerates?
Me? Oh, well, I’m flattered you ask. Surviving, thankfully, especially in 2020. Good news, we will have a new president soon. Although, thanks to some really terrible choices by enough people in Maine, Iowa, North Carolina and HOLY SHIT ALABAMA THREW OUT A GUY WHO PROSECUTED THE KLAN FOR A GUY WHO CAN’T NAME THE THREE BRANCHES OF GOVERNMENT, y’all are going to have to cross your fingers that enough Georgians are willing to throw out the insider trading twins so the rest of the country can get some more Covid relief cash (among other things).
What else, oh, BAR somehow talked Jerry Reinsdorf into hiring Tony LaRussa so BAR could squirrel AJ Hinch away to Detroit which, I admit I don’t know the rules inside and out, but really feels like both tampering and subterfuge. And, if we’re being honest, is typical BAR. Also, apparently Mogo let Matt Murray go to Ottawa which, OK, but I kind of feel like I wasn’t consulted on that at all. Although I haven’t really been around, so I suppose that’s fair.
Anyway, what were we talking about, oh right THE NATIONAL FOOTBALL LEAGUE (insert dramatic music here).
Well, your friend Joe was graced with the NFL package this year and for the last month he’s been watching more football than is probably healthy so maybe he can add a few things.
Let’s start with yesterday because even though that can’t help anybody this week, it’s fresh in everyone’s mind.
Dallas sucks. Like, in general and forever, but also specifically right now. And I say this as someone who has bet them the last two weeks. Now, maybe yesterday goes differently if they don’t lose two offensive linemen like three minutes into the game, but here’s what I think is more important about the Cowgirls. Mike McCarthy blows goats from the back. Rogers ran him out of GB because his offense is predictable garbage and now you’re seeing it in Dallas. If Dallas had a that monster OL they used to have, maybe things would be different, but right now, I think you bet against this team feeling comfortable that even if your side doesn’t play particularly well, McCarthy may just give the game to you. Also, more importantly, you can run all over Dallas. This is why my play on them yesterday was dumb. Washington matches up great with Dallas, and both Washington and Miinny ran all over them. No reason to think that stops.
Speaking of Washington, it’s so wonderfully appropriate that because Snyder refused to change that racist-ass name for so long we’ve forced this team to go through an entire season calling itself the Washington Football Team. Not even the Football Club so they could do F.C. and do some cool gear, generic ass Football Team. I love it. Not as much as Daniel Snyder loves an organization that embraces sexual harassment and prostituting its cheerleaders, but I love it a lot. Meanwhile, something to note on Wash., somehow they have statistically the best pass defense in the NFL. Which is nuts because as Amari Cooper showed yesterday, you can torch this team over the top. And somehow they have the second most sacks in the league? Which feels weird, but to me what stands out about their defense is how quick they are laterally. Meaning, if Washington is playing a team that checks it down a lot, I think you have to look at the Football Team. Which is a little weird to say seeing as how if Joe Burrow stays in that game last week, they probably get beat by the Bengals. But now you know why someone like Philly matches up so poorly against Washington right now.
Staying on Turkey Day and defense, Detroit has to be a blind over team when they’re indoors. They pretty much have been for me and it’s worked out nicely so far (Thank you, Gambling Gods). I know that as the season progresses, overs tend to fare worse, but a lot of times that’s because you’re getting into weather outdoors (plus injuries, lots of game film, etc.). But indoors on a fast track, you’re going to put up points on this Lions team. You just are. And we know Stafford’s history with padding stats late. Forget everything else about the 2020 Lions, tbh, to me this is what matters.
Last of the Thanks-A-Lot games, Houston. First, Watson is probably playing the second best at his position in the AFC behind Mahomes. And this is after losing Hopkins and his head coach. OK, the latter was addition by subtraction, but if you’ve ever heard him breakdown a defense you know how smart he is and he just keeps getting better. This is another team that if you can get them indoors I think you look at their over—which won’t be automatic as last week vs. NE showed. But this team should be scoring at least 20 a game on turf. Also, Romeo won’t be their HC next year, but I very much expect this team to ball out for him in their last couple of games. Who knows what Tenny will look like in week 17, but I would think about circling that game at home vs. Cincy for a play.
Let’s stay in the AFC South and go with the best team there, Indy. I mean, you could argue for Tenny, but it’s the Colts. It’s a shame Philip Rivers licks donkey balls when he’s not treating his wife like a broodmare because this team is really good. To me, they’re the New Orleans of the AFC and I want to bet on them. Of course, I know when I do that Rivers may try to pull my pants down in an alley and not in a good way, but still, to me this team is one of the best in the AFC.
Tennessee. I feel like people are going to make more of that comeback against Baltimore last week than maybe they should. The Titans matchup great against Baltimore. And much like when NE was the big dog and Baltimore used to match up great with them, I think that’s what you see with the Titans and the Ravens now. Meaning, are the Titans good? Yes, but are they great? Only in certain situations. Mainly, when they get to match up against a team they can run on, because that opens everything up for them. That may not help them this week against Indy. But it might against Cleveland next week and it should in the following two weeks against Jax and Detroit.
Speaking of Cleveland. This Browns team … ugh. You know, you’d think I’d be happier given their record. But this record is as fraudulent as the excuse Steed trotted out that time he got caught with his full fist in a glory hole just outside of Dayton. Everybody knows you weren’t “just looking to use the phone,’ Steed. EVERYONE KNOWS. Anyway, look at Browns' record. Yes, they played Vegas and Houston tight, but those games were played in terrible conditions. If those are road games, they lose them both. Easily. Their whole schedule is filled with terrible teams—which they beat and good for them. But look at what happens when they play good teams without the aid of 40mph winds. They lose by 20+. Funny thing is, their remaining schedule stays soft (other than Pitt and Balty again). There’s a real chance this team gets to the playoffs. In which case, please bet against them. In the meantime, you may have to ride them a little. Although, this week I think is a great go-against spot. No way this team should be favored by seven on the road. Maybe tease them down so it's essentially a PK if you think Jax is that bad, but I don't lay seven here at all.
Cincy: Nine times out of ten, I’m a big believer in the injured star theory. This is the other time. I admit to only have seen so much of this Cincy team, but I have to think they fully quit now that Burrow is gone. It was obvious that with him they were building something. And good for them, seriously, but without him, you have to think it just crushes them emotionally. There’s a chance they fight hard this weekend, maybe, but I don’t see it. And I definitely don’t see it next week when they got to Miami. Hint, hint.
Pittsburgh. Shit, what can you say, they’re undefeated. Which is slightly weird because I don’t think anybody really believes they’re better than KC. That said, they’re still undefeated. And there’s a reason for it. Their defense is good and they don’t make mistakes. They beat the teams in front of them and they keep rolling. And, if they ever do play this game against Baltimore (I’m not sure they do), they probably just keep it up. If you’re looking for their loss, I think it’s in two weeks in Buffalo, btw. If they get through that, there’s a chance they rest guys in Week 17 and they lose at Cleveland when Cleveland should really need the game and Pittsburgh shouldn't.
Baltimore … is fucked. Which is sad because if they’re healthy, they’re really good. Thing is, they’re not healthy. I was against them last week because they were without two of their starters on the DL and they were going against Derek Henry. Problem is, Campbell is still out and is just one of a thousand injuries on this team right now. And now with Lamar having Covid, there’s a good chance this team doesn’t even make the playoffs. But for betting purposes, this feels like earlier in the season when the Titans screwed up the protocols. How do you bet this team until you have any idea who’s going to be on the field? My guess is, it works out like Tenny, where they muddle through some games only to get healthy right at the end of the season when it’s too late.
The AFC East I think we can get through relatively quickly. The Jets may go 0-16, and it would be justified. The Dolphins' defense is for real, but I look to play them at home. I got suckered into them in Denver last week which was a bad bet. The line was over-inflated and Tua has been a warm weather QB his entire career. At Denver was me buying the hype. I’m dialing that back now. New England is better than I think everyone expected which shows you the value of good coaching, but they’re still not good and basically just showing up so they don’t get fined. The class of this division is Buffalo and I have a feeling people are forgetting that because the last thing they remember from them is giving up that hail Murray in Arizona (which, as a Cards backer that day, was very much appreciated). Point is, they’re good. I wish they had Cleveland’s schedule the rest of the way, because it would be easy money. But I think if you pick your spots with this team, maybe look to tease them, you’ll be happy.
Ha, I almost forgot the AFC West, which is crazy because the best team in the NFL is there. I mean, at this point, if you aren’t betting on KC, I don’t think you can go against them—unless they’re playing the Raiders or a team built exactly like the Raiders. Which, not to brush aside KC, but let’s brush aside KC and get to Vegas. The Raiders have been built to beat KC and the system is working. Now, what does that mean when they play one of the other 30 teams in the league? It means that Derek Carr might be playing like he’s top five in the conference right now and this team can run. the. football. Also, Carr has his own safety valve in Waller at TE which is extremely underrated.
I like this Raiders team. They put up points, I like to bet overs (shocking, I know), and so I like the way they think. Speaking of which, I think their over in Atlanta this weekend is worth a look. I think their game against Indy in Vegas might be a repeat of the Indy/GB game, and they might even give you one more vs. the Chargers in three weeks.
Speaking of the Chargers, with Burrow now out, Herbert is winning rookie of the year. This team is sort of the opposite of Cleveland, their QB is really good and their record is undeservedly bad. This is a team that I think may make a huge leap next year. This year … I see maybe two more wins for them. They get NE, Atlanta, and Denver all at home. They can find a way to win two of those.
And now … LET’S SWITCH CONFERENCES! (Feel free to take a moment to get a beverage, or tell me that you missed me. Or get into that second edible. Hey, it’s a four day weekend in a pandemic, you’ve earned it.)
What’s going on you beautiful degenerates?
Me? Oh, well, I’m flattered you ask. Surviving, thankfully, especially in 2020. Good news, we will have a new president soon. Although, thanks to some really terrible choices by enough people in Maine, Iowa, North Carolina and HOLY SHIT ALABAMA THREW OUT A GUY WHO PROSECUTED THE KLAN FOR A GUY WHO CAN’T NAME THE THREE BRANCHES OF GOVERNMENT, y’all are going to have to cross your fingers that enough Georgians are willing to throw out the insider trading twins so the rest of the country can get some more Covid relief cash (among other things).
What else, oh, BAR somehow talked Jerry Reinsdorf into hiring Tony LaRussa so BAR could squirrel AJ Hinch away to Detroit which, I admit I don’t know the rules inside and out, but really feels like both tampering and subterfuge. And, if we’re being honest, is typical BAR. Also, apparently Mogo let Matt Murray go to Ottawa which, OK, but I kind of feel like I wasn’t consulted on that at all. Although I haven’t really been around, so I suppose that’s fair.
Anyway, what were we talking about, oh right THE NATIONAL FOOTBALL LEAGUE (insert dramatic music here).
Well, your friend Joe was graced with the NFL package this year and for the last month he’s been watching more football than is probably healthy so maybe he can add a few things.
Let’s start with yesterday because even though that can’t help anybody this week, it’s fresh in everyone’s mind.
Dallas sucks. Like, in general and forever, but also specifically right now. And I say this as someone who has bet them the last two weeks. Now, maybe yesterday goes differently if they don’t lose two offensive linemen like three minutes into the game, but here’s what I think is more important about the Cowgirls. Mike McCarthy blows goats from the back. Rogers ran him out of GB because his offense is predictable garbage and now you’re seeing it in Dallas. If Dallas had a that monster OL they used to have, maybe things would be different, but right now, I think you bet against this team feeling comfortable that even if your side doesn’t play particularly well, McCarthy may just give the game to you. Also, more importantly, you can run all over Dallas. This is why my play on them yesterday was dumb. Washington matches up great with Dallas, and both Washington and Miinny ran all over them. No reason to think that stops.
Speaking of Washington, it’s so wonderfully appropriate that because Snyder refused to change that racist-ass name for so long we’ve forced this team to go through an entire season calling itself the Washington Football Team. Not even the Football Club so they could do F.C. and do some cool gear, generic ass Football Team. I love it. Not as much as Daniel Snyder loves an organization that embraces sexual harassment and prostituting its cheerleaders, but I love it a lot. Meanwhile, something to note on Wash., somehow they have statistically the best pass defense in the NFL. Which is nuts because as Amari Cooper showed yesterday, you can torch this team over the top. And somehow they have the second most sacks in the league? Which feels weird, but to me what stands out about their defense is how quick they are laterally. Meaning, if Washington is playing a team that checks it down a lot, I think you have to look at the Football Team. Which is a little weird to say seeing as how if Joe Burrow stays in that game last week, they probably get beat by the Bengals. But now you know why someone like Philly matches up so poorly against Washington right now.
Staying on Turkey Day and defense, Detroit has to be a blind over team when they’re indoors. They pretty much have been for me and it’s worked out nicely so far (Thank you, Gambling Gods). I know that as the season progresses, overs tend to fare worse, but a lot of times that’s because you’re getting into weather outdoors (plus injuries, lots of game film, etc.). But indoors on a fast track, you’re going to put up points on this Lions team. You just are. And we know Stafford’s history with padding stats late. Forget everything else about the 2020 Lions, tbh, to me this is what matters.
Last of the Thanks-A-Lot games, Houston. First, Watson is probably playing the second best at his position in the AFC behind Mahomes. And this is after losing Hopkins and his head coach. OK, the latter was addition by subtraction, but if you’ve ever heard him breakdown a defense you know how smart he is and he just keeps getting better. This is another team that if you can get them indoors I think you look at their over—which won’t be automatic as last week vs. NE showed. But this team should be scoring at least 20 a game on turf. Also, Romeo won’t be their HC next year, but I very much expect this team to ball out for him in their last couple of games. Who knows what Tenny will look like in week 17, but I would think about circling that game at home vs. Cincy for a play.
Let’s stay in the AFC South and go with the best team there, Indy. I mean, you could argue for Tenny, but it’s the Colts. It’s a shame Philip Rivers licks donkey balls when he’s not treating his wife like a broodmare because this team is really good. To me, they’re the New Orleans of the AFC and I want to bet on them. Of course, I know when I do that Rivers may try to pull my pants down in an alley and not in a good way, but still, to me this team is one of the best in the AFC.
Tennessee. I feel like people are going to make more of that comeback against Baltimore last week than maybe they should. The Titans matchup great against Baltimore. And much like when NE was the big dog and Baltimore used to match up great with them, I think that’s what you see with the Titans and the Ravens now. Meaning, are the Titans good? Yes, but are they great? Only in certain situations. Mainly, when they get to match up against a team they can run on, because that opens everything up for them. That may not help them this week against Indy. But it might against Cleveland next week and it should in the following two weeks against Jax and Detroit.
Speaking of Cleveland. This Browns team … ugh. You know, you’d think I’d be happier given their record. But this record is as fraudulent as the excuse Steed trotted out that time he got caught with his full fist in a glory hole just outside of Dayton. Everybody knows you weren’t “just looking to use the phone,’ Steed. EVERYONE KNOWS. Anyway, look at Browns' record. Yes, they played Vegas and Houston tight, but those games were played in terrible conditions. If those are road games, they lose them both. Easily. Their whole schedule is filled with terrible teams—which they beat and good for them. But look at what happens when they play good teams without the aid of 40mph winds. They lose by 20+. Funny thing is, their remaining schedule stays soft (other than Pitt and Balty again). There’s a real chance this team gets to the playoffs. In which case, please bet against them. In the meantime, you may have to ride them a little. Although, this week I think is a great go-against spot. No way this team should be favored by seven on the road. Maybe tease them down so it's essentially a PK if you think Jax is that bad, but I don't lay seven here at all.
Cincy: Nine times out of ten, I’m a big believer in the injured star theory. This is the other time. I admit to only have seen so much of this Cincy team, but I have to think they fully quit now that Burrow is gone. It was obvious that with him they were building something. And good for them, seriously, but without him, you have to think it just crushes them emotionally. There’s a chance they fight hard this weekend, maybe, but I don’t see it. And I definitely don’t see it next week when they got to Miami. Hint, hint.
Pittsburgh. Shit, what can you say, they’re undefeated. Which is slightly weird because I don’t think anybody really believes they’re better than KC. That said, they’re still undefeated. And there’s a reason for it. Their defense is good and they don’t make mistakes. They beat the teams in front of them and they keep rolling. And, if they ever do play this game against Baltimore (I’m not sure they do), they probably just keep it up. If you’re looking for their loss, I think it’s in two weeks in Buffalo, btw. If they get through that, there’s a chance they rest guys in Week 17 and they lose at Cleveland when Cleveland should really need the game and Pittsburgh shouldn't.
Baltimore … is fucked. Which is sad because if they’re healthy, they’re really good. Thing is, they’re not healthy. I was against them last week because they were without two of their starters on the DL and they were going against Derek Henry. Problem is, Campbell is still out and is just one of a thousand injuries on this team right now. And now with Lamar having Covid, there’s a good chance this team doesn’t even make the playoffs. But for betting purposes, this feels like earlier in the season when the Titans screwed up the protocols. How do you bet this team until you have any idea who’s going to be on the field? My guess is, it works out like Tenny, where they muddle through some games only to get healthy right at the end of the season when it’s too late.
The AFC East I think we can get through relatively quickly. The Jets may go 0-16, and it would be justified. The Dolphins' defense is for real, but I look to play them at home. I got suckered into them in Denver last week which was a bad bet. The line was over-inflated and Tua has been a warm weather QB his entire career. At Denver was me buying the hype. I’m dialing that back now. New England is better than I think everyone expected which shows you the value of good coaching, but they’re still not good and basically just showing up so they don’t get fined. The class of this division is Buffalo and I have a feeling people are forgetting that because the last thing they remember from them is giving up that hail Murray in Arizona (which, as a Cards backer that day, was very much appreciated). Point is, they’re good. I wish they had Cleveland’s schedule the rest of the way, because it would be easy money. But I think if you pick your spots with this team, maybe look to tease them, you’ll be happy.
Ha, I almost forgot the AFC West, which is crazy because the best team in the NFL is there. I mean, at this point, if you aren’t betting on KC, I don’t think you can go against them—unless they’re playing the Raiders or a team built exactly like the Raiders. Which, not to brush aside KC, but let’s brush aside KC and get to Vegas. The Raiders have been built to beat KC and the system is working. Now, what does that mean when they play one of the other 30 teams in the league? It means that Derek Carr might be playing like he’s top five in the conference right now and this team can run. the. football. Also, Carr has his own safety valve in Waller at TE which is extremely underrated.
I like this Raiders team. They put up points, I like to bet overs (shocking, I know), and so I like the way they think. Speaking of which, I think their over in Atlanta this weekend is worth a look. I think their game against Indy in Vegas might be a repeat of the Indy/GB game, and they might even give you one more vs. the Chargers in three weeks.
Speaking of the Chargers, with Burrow now out, Herbert is winning rookie of the year. This team is sort of the opposite of Cleveland, their QB is really good and their record is undeservedly bad. This is a team that I think may make a huge leap next year. This year … I see maybe two more wins for them. They get NE, Atlanta, and Denver all at home. They can find a way to win two of those.
And now … LET’S SWITCH CONFERENCES! (Feel free to take a moment to get a beverage, or tell me that you missed me. Or get into that second edible. Hey, it’s a four day weekend in a pandemic, you’ve earned it.)
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Joe Public
Gabibbo's Finest
In the NFC, let’s start in the best division with the team you all care about the most, obviously, Emkee’s Philadelphia Eagles. Wooooohooooo. Holy shit, this team sucks. This is what happens when you let CTGers run a franchise, I'm just sayin'. So Wentz’s confidence is absolutely shot which might be the worst kept secret in football. Unfortunately, word on the street is that Lurie won’t let Peterson bench him. Which needs to happen. I’m not saying they should give up on Wentz, they’ve paid him too much money and he has too much potential for that, but he’s a wreck right now and playing him does nobody any good. Fun fact: This team is either the number one or number two team in terms of injured starters this year. Meaning, they’ve had more different players starting from week to week than anybody. They’ve been crushed by injuries, which helps explain their complete lack of cohesion. This defense has a lot of heart and Travis Fulgham is going to run for mayor, and we’re all going to vote for him, but this team is done. That said, I could easily see a huge rebound for this team next year if they’re healthy, have a good draft, and get Wentz some coaching help and/or therapy.
Dallas and Washington we’ve covered, but the Giants we haven’t. To me the Giants are also pretty close to a good football team. And assuming they go into Cincy and take care of business by say 10 or so this week, I think you’ll start to see them getting a lot of love. You know, before they go into Seattle and get beaten by a better team. But if that number’s right in the pacific northwest… maybe they cover?
Speaking of Seattle, I feel like they’re starting to get forgotten because they’ve had a few bad games. Yes, their defense will let you score on them—which is why I think there might be some value in the Giants next week. But their offense isn’t fucking around. Also, their next four games include three teams from the NFC East and a home game vs. the Jets. This team is going to be at 10 wins before you know it. My suggestion is to find a way to bet that accordingly.
I’m going to jump past LA to Arizona real quick because I like this AZ team a lot. Mainly because I’ve bet them a number of times this year, but also because Murray is as fun to watch as anybody in the league. Of course, now they have injuries. Murray isn’t 100%, Larry Fitz is out because of Covid. But this week Hopkins comes back. Sadly, I can’t bet them. I want to. But I can’t. I’m worried they’re too banged up this week. Of course, it’s Friday and I don’t think NE is very good. So there’s a real chance I talk myself into this by Sunday.
Los Rams. I started off the season thinking this team would be good. Then I thought I was wrong. Now maybe I was right? I keep missing on this team. Betting Seattle in LA. Betting Tampa—although that was partially me thinking the loss of Whitworth on the OL was going to be just a massive loss for this team. It wasn’t. They’re good. And as long as their protection stays that way, their defense gets pressure and Goff can make all the throws. They also get SF, NE, and the Jets at home the rest of the way. This team is going to 11 wins, folks.
To the Norris Division!
Literally everyone in Philly could have told you that Nick Foles only works in the playoffs, Chicago. But did you want to listen to us? No? OK, well then fuck you. Which we say with love, because we’re Birds fans. I called my mother for Thanksgiving yesterday, told her fuck you. She said the same. It’s what we do. So hey, fuck you. Anyway, until Chicago figures out their QB situation I’m only looking to bet them against obviously shitty opponents.
Detroit we covered, Minnesota we have not. Minnesota seems to be getting it together at the right time. I don’t put too much stock in the loss to Dallas, it was a bad spot. However, Dallas ran all over this team. Thankfully for them, does anyone remaining on their schedule have the ability to do that? Carolina this week? Tampa in Tampa in a few weeks? The schedule sets up for this team pretty nicely which is interesting, because I don't believe in their defense at all.
Green Bay is good. Forget that Colts game. Or remember it as a blueprint on how to beat GB, but as someone who was on Indy there I’d say I got lucky. In fairness to me, I had both sides there as I’d teased GB, but the point remains. GB should have won that game. And man, does this team have a great schedule to finish the year: Chicago, Philly, Carolina and Tenny all at home. At least two wins there. Then Detroit in Detroit and Week 17 against a Chicago team that should be eliminated by then. Feels like four more wins in there for this team, no?
Last, and probably least, the NFC South. Ugh.
Atlanta failed me last week in my quest for an over. Let’s hope they figure their shit out this week and get back to what they do, giving up more points than sacks. I don’t really like this team, I don’t think they’re very good, but I want them to be like Detroit, an over team at home. But that may be wishful thinking.
Carolina, honestly, I don’t know what to do with them. I can raise a lot of questions, but I don’t have any solid answers for them so right now I kind of avoid them. Thoughts? Help?
Tampa, however, I do have thoughts on. Brady is in the Philip Rivers/Drew Brees with healthy ribs part of his career. He can’t make the deep throws. He just can’t. This shrinks the field and forces him to be near perfect each week. I think Tampa goes like NE went last year. They fade down the stretch but may get saved by a bad schedule. They get Atlanta twice, plus Minny at home and Detroit in Motown. They could honestly sneak out four wins there. Which, in a way, I hope they do because then we could get a nice go against spot with them if they make the playoffs. This team is good, but Brady is going to fail them at some point and take a lot of money with him.
New Orleans. The only reason I don’t say that this Saints team is the same as TB is because their defense is just that good. Or at least, is just playing that good right now. I probably wouldn’t have gone with Hill at QB, but Payton loves him and wants him to be the next thing—and that guy knows more football than me by a long shot. No, no, I appreciate what you’re thinking, but it’s true. I feel like the Saints are going to get to the playoffs, get Brees back, and then, if Brees can string together a couple of halfway decent games, they may end up in the NFC championship weird as that may be to say. But more specifically, their game this week is kind of big. If they can get by Denver—yes, NO is the better team, but it’s a bad spot, they follow this with another divisional road game. But if they can take care of Denver, they have Atlanta again and Philly at home. At which point KC should come into town and beat them—although you never know, it is in New Orleans—but then they have Minny at home before finishing at Carolina. You can definitely find four wins in there, which finishes them at 12-4.
Anyway, that’s what I’ve got for now. Which is a lot of words, but I hope it helps someone in some way.
The only other thing I’ll add for those of you who’ve actually stuck with this this long (I see you, VK), is this. My biggest takeaway from the NFL this year is to keep it simple. Every time I over-think plays, or try to get tricky, I lose. An example: Pittsburgh at Baltimore, Baltimore is -4. Everything about that says to take Pittsburgh. Division game, more than three points, historically they play close. Why am I going the other way on Baltimore. Same thing with Philly -4 going into NYG or Miami -3.5 going into Denver. A four point road favorite with a team that’s got question marks? What am I doing.
I’m not saying 'only' take easy plays (depending on how you define that), but what I’m saying is, find the SU wins and find a way to capitalize off that. Unlike in seasons past where I think at times you’ve had to find these hidden gems of teams that are going to sneak inside a number, I don’t think this year is that. My sense is that if you pick five SU winners each week, you’re going to be right on four of them. Find a way to exploit that, maybe with round robin teasers or something, rather than being like, ‘OK, so, if these three things break right, Atlanta will definitely keep it within seven points.’ From what I've seen, that just ain't it this year.
OK, I’ve taken enough of your time.
But in closing just let me say this. First, I’m thankful this day-after-Thanksgiving that all of you degenerates are still around—yes, even you Steed. And at some point this weekend, pour a little out for Fond-Du-Lac who will never ever be truly gone as long as there’s a CTG. Also, as you make your way safely through this pandemic—yes, it's real, yes, wear a mask—just remember that if you would have told Fondy that he would have to stockpile paper towels, toilet paper, laundry detergent, and Lysol wipes for the next six months, he would have looked at you and said, ‘Way ahead of you, man. Way ahead of you.'
=)
Dallas and Washington we’ve covered, but the Giants we haven’t. To me the Giants are also pretty close to a good football team. And assuming they go into Cincy and take care of business by say 10 or so this week, I think you’ll start to see them getting a lot of love. You know, before they go into Seattle and get beaten by a better team. But if that number’s right in the pacific northwest… maybe they cover?
Speaking of Seattle, I feel like they’re starting to get forgotten because they’ve had a few bad games. Yes, their defense will let you score on them—which is why I think there might be some value in the Giants next week. But their offense isn’t fucking around. Also, their next four games include three teams from the NFC East and a home game vs. the Jets. This team is going to be at 10 wins before you know it. My suggestion is to find a way to bet that accordingly.
I’m going to jump past LA to Arizona real quick because I like this AZ team a lot. Mainly because I’ve bet them a number of times this year, but also because Murray is as fun to watch as anybody in the league. Of course, now they have injuries. Murray isn’t 100%, Larry Fitz is out because of Covid. But this week Hopkins comes back. Sadly, I can’t bet them. I want to. But I can’t. I’m worried they’re too banged up this week. Of course, it’s Friday and I don’t think NE is very good. So there’s a real chance I talk myself into this by Sunday.
Los Rams. I started off the season thinking this team would be good. Then I thought I was wrong. Now maybe I was right? I keep missing on this team. Betting Seattle in LA. Betting Tampa—although that was partially me thinking the loss of Whitworth on the OL was going to be just a massive loss for this team. It wasn’t. They’re good. And as long as their protection stays that way, their defense gets pressure and Goff can make all the throws. They also get SF, NE, and the Jets at home the rest of the way. This team is going to 11 wins, folks.
To the Norris Division!
Literally everyone in Philly could have told you that Nick Foles only works in the playoffs, Chicago. But did you want to listen to us? No? OK, well then fuck you. Which we say with love, because we’re Birds fans. I called my mother for Thanksgiving yesterday, told her fuck you. She said the same. It’s what we do. So hey, fuck you. Anyway, until Chicago figures out their QB situation I’m only looking to bet them against obviously shitty opponents.
Detroit we covered, Minnesota we have not. Minnesota seems to be getting it together at the right time. I don’t put too much stock in the loss to Dallas, it was a bad spot. However, Dallas ran all over this team. Thankfully for them, does anyone remaining on their schedule have the ability to do that? Carolina this week? Tampa in Tampa in a few weeks? The schedule sets up for this team pretty nicely which is interesting, because I don't believe in their defense at all.
Green Bay is good. Forget that Colts game. Or remember it as a blueprint on how to beat GB, but as someone who was on Indy there I’d say I got lucky. In fairness to me, I had both sides there as I’d teased GB, but the point remains. GB should have won that game. And man, does this team have a great schedule to finish the year: Chicago, Philly, Carolina and Tenny all at home. At least two wins there. Then Detroit in Detroit and Week 17 against a Chicago team that should be eliminated by then. Feels like four more wins in there for this team, no?
Last, and probably least, the NFC South. Ugh.
Atlanta failed me last week in my quest for an over. Let’s hope they figure their shit out this week and get back to what they do, giving up more points than sacks. I don’t really like this team, I don’t think they’re very good, but I want them to be like Detroit, an over team at home. But that may be wishful thinking.
Carolina, honestly, I don’t know what to do with them. I can raise a lot of questions, but I don’t have any solid answers for them so right now I kind of avoid them. Thoughts? Help?
Tampa, however, I do have thoughts on. Brady is in the Philip Rivers/Drew Brees with healthy ribs part of his career. He can’t make the deep throws. He just can’t. This shrinks the field and forces him to be near perfect each week. I think Tampa goes like NE went last year. They fade down the stretch but may get saved by a bad schedule. They get Atlanta twice, plus Minny at home and Detroit in Motown. They could honestly sneak out four wins there. Which, in a way, I hope they do because then we could get a nice go against spot with them if they make the playoffs. This team is good, but Brady is going to fail them at some point and take a lot of money with him.
New Orleans. The only reason I don’t say that this Saints team is the same as TB is because their defense is just that good. Or at least, is just playing that good right now. I probably wouldn’t have gone with Hill at QB, but Payton loves him and wants him to be the next thing—and that guy knows more football than me by a long shot. No, no, I appreciate what you’re thinking, but it’s true. I feel like the Saints are going to get to the playoffs, get Brees back, and then, if Brees can string together a couple of halfway decent games, they may end up in the NFC championship weird as that may be to say. But more specifically, their game this week is kind of big. If they can get by Denver—yes, NO is the better team, but it’s a bad spot, they follow this with another divisional road game. But if they can take care of Denver, they have Atlanta again and Philly at home. At which point KC should come into town and beat them—although you never know, it is in New Orleans—but then they have Minny at home before finishing at Carolina. You can definitely find four wins in there, which finishes them at 12-4.
Anyway, that’s what I’ve got for now. Which is a lot of words, but I hope it helps someone in some way.
The only other thing I’ll add for those of you who’ve actually stuck with this this long (I see you, VK), is this. My biggest takeaway from the NFL this year is to keep it simple. Every time I over-think plays, or try to get tricky, I lose. An example: Pittsburgh at Baltimore, Baltimore is -4. Everything about that says to take Pittsburgh. Division game, more than three points, historically they play close. Why am I going the other way on Baltimore. Same thing with Philly -4 going into NYG or Miami -3.5 going into Denver. A four point road favorite with a team that’s got question marks? What am I doing.
I’m not saying 'only' take easy plays (depending on how you define that), but what I’m saying is, find the SU wins and find a way to capitalize off that. Unlike in seasons past where I think at times you’ve had to find these hidden gems of teams that are going to sneak inside a number, I don’t think this year is that. My sense is that if you pick five SU winners each week, you’re going to be right on four of them. Find a way to exploit that, maybe with round robin teasers or something, rather than being like, ‘OK, so, if these three things break right, Atlanta will definitely keep it within seven points.’ From what I've seen, that just ain't it this year.
OK, I’ve taken enough of your time.
But in closing just let me say this. First, I’m thankful this day-after-Thanksgiving that all of you degenerates are still around—yes, even you Steed. And at some point this weekend, pour a little out for Fond-Du-Lac who will never ever be truly gone as long as there’s a CTG. Also, as you make your way safely through this pandemic—yes, it's real, yes, wear a mask—just remember that if you would have told Fondy that he would have to stockpile paper towels, toilet paper, laundry detergent, and Lysol wipes for the next six months, he would have looked at you and said, ‘Way ahead of you, man. Way ahead of you.'
=)
Joe Public
Gabibbo's Finest
Oh, I don't know if you want any of that. Hahahahaha.
