Learn along with me:
NE/ATL - Are we really ready to trust these Pats as a TD favorite, on the road, on a short week, with a rookie QB, against a team with a competent QB? Did Brady come back? I didn't think so. Atlanta +7 for me. OK, time to trust the Pats defense as being very good, pretty much back to 2019 level. The offense is serviceable but not world beaters. Once Patterson was declared out it left the Falcons with just one top level weapon, and we know Bill knows how to shut down one weapon. Bad call on my part.
Indy/Buf - Interesting that the last 3 teams Indy's played were also played by the Bills in the last 4 weeks. Results slightly favor Indy. Think these two teams will keep it fairly close so Indy +7 and I like the over 50 too. Pretty clear that the trend for Indy has been up in recent weeks while the Bills are spinning their wheels a bit, but still dangerous. The Thursday night game with the Saints will be interesting.
Balt/Chi - Ravens in a bounce back spot against a team with a spotty run D. Have to think they figured out what went wrong in Miami. Bears are playing better on offense the last couple of games. Like Ravens based on pedigree but not sure they can cover. Pass. Once Lamar was declared out all bets were off (although I had none, lol). The Ravens continue to find ways to win. But hurry back Lamar! Even with the Red Rifle back they can't make Allen Robinson a thing this year.
Det/Cle - Battle of the never super bowl teams, Lions have consistently failed to string together two good efforts in a row, while the Browns are looking to clean off the stench from getting pummeled last week. Big number to cover but with Chubb back the Browns should have enough. Cle -10. Browns ran out to a 13-0 lead and I thought this bet was in the bag. Then they fell asleep in the second half and had to stop Detroit on three fourth quarter possessions where the Lions were threatening. That's two decent efforts in a row for the Lions, are they improving just in time to pull the upset on Turkey Day? Maybe!
Hou/Tenn - Titans starting to win ugly without the King in the lineup, While the Texans are just ugly. Will do the usual 1st half bet on Tenny and double down in the 2nd half if they fail. Ugly wins turned into just plain ugly in this one. FIVE turnovers for the Tits. Houston generated only 190 yards of offense. This is a burn the tape game.
GB/Minn - Should be the usual tight divisional tilt with swings in both directions. Both teams capable of getting the outright win, and the spread gives no clues. Would think under but there's too much talent out there to trust it. Pass all the way around. As predicted, just a great back and forth game. Glad I laid off the total as the bigtime talent took it to an easy over. When are the Pack going to send Crosby to the retirement home? 32 yd miss!
Mia/NYJ - There's an old saying.....never thought I'd get the chance to bet against Joe Flacco again. Miami aren't exactly road warriors though. Lean is Dolphins -3 but not thrilled with it. Flacco actually wasn't terrible, only took two sacks but they were both huge. On the first one he fumbled it away at the Miami 5. The second one killed their first drive of the 4th quarter after Miami had just retaken the lead. I'd still bet against him more often than not.
NO/Phil - Big bounce back spot for the Saints. Eagles newfound rushing attack runs into the Saints top ranked run D. I'll gobble up the +1.5 on the Saints as they should win outright. Wow, terrible read on this one. Saints with Simien have been horrible for 3 quarters for 3 straight games before attempting a late rally. When does Payton go to Taysom Hill? On this short week? Doesn't seem likely. Hard not to like the Bills this week. Eagles are just running over people; they've turned into Baltimore 2020. Don't look now but they have a lot of winnable games left and are only 2.5 games behind Dallas.
Was/Car - Hard to believe but Cam is apparently an upgrade over Darnold. Rivera will know the things Cam doesn't like to do and will try to make him do those things. Spread wants to shy us away from the Panthers by requiring us to take the hook. I think its worth the risk. Panthers -3.5. Didn't get much out of this game. Both teams seemed pretty evenly matched so in retrospect the hook probably should've pushed us towards the winner. Carolina is much less likeable now.
SF/Jax - Niners with a massive MNF divisional win now have to go cross country and play the 1 pm game against a bad Jaguars team that has won two straight at home and rallied vs. Indy. Yeah I'll take a shot with the +6.5 on the Jags. Niners just bullied the Jags all game long. Opening drive was 20 plays, took 13 minutes! Still only netted a FG. Jags only got to run 44 plays. Still, Niners only had 333 yards, so it was an efficient 30 they put up. How on earth does Dan Arnold go from 10, 7 and 8 targets the last 3 games to ZERO today? And you'd think after about the third time Deebo lined up in the back that the Jags would realize he's absolutely going to get the ball. C'mon Urb.
Cinc/LV - Two teams trying to crack a two game losing streak and bad losses where the opponent dropped 40+ on them. Both teams are used to fading the 2nd half of seasons, so its hard to say which one will rise up and keep their playoff hopes front and center. Pass. Figures to be entertaining though. This one was tight with 10 minutes left, then the new Joe Cool led the Bengals on a 12 play TD drive and Carr turned into Bad Derek, with turnovers on consecutive possessions leading to short drives for another 10 points. Bengals are committing to running Mixon more and more each week and its working. The one Raiders bright spot was getting Waller more involved again. Cincy has a massive game next week at home against Pittsburgh. Raiders have a tough short turnaround and head to Dallas.
Dal/KC - Cowboys getting love from the bettors as a road dog and yet the line stays stuck on the Chiefs. Will be rooting obviously but I can't bet it. Should be a barn burner though. League is due for a classic. This one was anything but a classic as Dak was already handcuffed without Cooper and also without a left tackle, and the Chiefs were able to bottle him up pretty well. Full credit to the Dallas defense as well missing Randy Gregory but still limiting Mahomes to 19 points. 33 percent conversion rate for both teams. Classic McCarthy, gearing up for a shootout, calls three pass plays the first series, Dallas goes 3 and out, then the Chiefs use their scripted play set to march in for a TD. After that it was 75% passes, even though it was never worse than a 2 score game and Dallas ended up without both Cooper and Lamb. CEH looked pretty good in his return, and both defenses should be championship caliber complements to their offenses.
Ari/Sea - Last chance for the Seahawks to stay relevant, would expect them to pull out all the stops in this one. Cards need to come back off a loss, but not sure if Kyler will play. If he does, I like the Cards to cover. If he doesn't, Colt wilts again versus the 12th man. Well Kyler didn't come back but the Cards covered anyway as Colt McCoy was pretty damn solid. Russ doesn't seem 100% and time is running out for them. Cards d-line was overwhelming Seattle at times. When Kyler and Nuk return that team will be the NFC favorite.
Pit/LAC - The Covid Bowl as Bosa is out, Minkah is out, Ben trying to come back. TJ Watt is also banged up. As bad as Tomlin is as a home fave he's quite good as a road dog, especially at night. Line has drifted up to -5.5 which may imply Ben sits out another one. I'll take the points and assume he's going to be out there. Yeah, Collinsworth had it right, those mofos are tough to kill. But without TJ Watt, Haden and Minkah their defense was only Cam Heyward and a lot of jags, and Herbert sliced them to bits. Steelers put up 27 in the forth with only about 100 yards of offense, which is ridiculous. They also ran for 3.1 ypc against what was the last place run defense in the league. Still, the Chargers desire to blow games remains a strong part of their identity.
NYG/Tam - Brady & Co. at home are just a different beast than on the road. Think they cover the -10.5. I still like it. Can't wait to hear what Eli thinks about his former squad. Maybe Peyton will let him talk a little bit.
