Week 11: Taking the wife to Sparty, tickets got cheaper

[Marsski]

YTD: 65-51, +12.67

Had a losing week and made a coupe of really dumb plays which didn't help--OSU 2h and Oregon...time to turn the page and dive into the MACtion...

Played a couple off the jump. Taking the wife to the Shoe this week for our annual non-good game visit. The deal is she gets one bad game per year and Michigan when its at home. And we have to be there early so she gets to see the band before the game. Whipped, I know.

Played Eastern -1.5.
They finally got a conference win last week when they dismantled Ball, kicking myself for not playing it. Eastern has a real good defense--at least for the MAC--and CMU can't stop the run a lick. Eastern's QB can make plays in the passing game and keep CMU from putting everyone on the line and daring them to pass like they did in the rain vs Western.

Played ND -3

Not a believer in the Canes at all....ND I think (gulp) is for real....



Week 11 Card:
Akron +9 to win half unit
Toledo/Ohio U. Over 64.5 to win 1 unit
Ohio Bobcats TT Over 30.5 (-120)
Eastern -1.5 to win 1 unit
ND -3 to win 1 unit
TCU +7 to win 1 unit (-115)
*Can't lose ML parlay 1 to win 2.24: Ohio State/Louisville/Indiana/USC/Michigan/Fresno St
Penn State -31 to win 1 unit
M Tenn St -11.5 to win 1 unit

68-57, +10.81 YTD

*will lose

 

[Marsski]

Am I crazy for liking Free Shoes +17? Anyone watch them vs Cuse? Keep of think that Clemson will have their full attention, and maybe we see their A game...

 

[s--k]

I had Cuse so I watched quite a bit of the game, partially distracted with 7 others at the same time though.

FSU relied heavily on big plays. Without them Syracuse D was able to keep Orange in the game. Syracuse certainly could've won the game, possibly if Dungey hadn't missed a full quarter and they fell behind 14-0, dare I say Syracuse should've won. FSU is still a mess and not good. Syracuse O and D shouldn't have been able to 'win' vs them as often as they did, but that is where Noles are right now. 17 is a bunch and maybe FSU decides to care and pull it together this week, but the fact is they just aren't very good. But I've played against Clemson 7x this year and only on 1x, so apparently I feel they have some vulnerabilities as well.

I was glad to see Eastern perform vs Ball St. I was good to know they are still together and got to wash that bad taste out of their mouth even if it was vs a bad team. Now we can get back to appreciating the EM team we know. You and I both lost on WM last week and I hated it, but got to respect how CM didn't quit though and they probably get a bounce in their step from it. At this point with the QB situation what it is for WM, I think EM is better than WM right now and CM going to find it tough this week as well. Now as long as we don't have torrential rain the entire game making things a little more predictable, EM should emerge with the win.

Hope you have a great one on the plays and in the 'shoe.

 

[Marsski]

I had Cuse so I watched quite a bit of the game, partially distracted with 7 others at the same time though.

FSU relied heavily on big plays. Without them Syracuse D was able to keep Orange in the game. Syracuse certainly could've won the game, possibly if Dungey hadn't missed a full quarter and they fell behind 14-0, dare I say Syracuse should've won. FSU is still a mess and not good. Syracuse O and D shouldn't have been able to 'win' vs them as often as they did, but that is where Noles are right now. 17 is a bunch and maybe FSU decides to care and pull it together this week, but the fact is they just aren't very good. But I've played against Clemson 7x this year and only on 1x, so apparently I feel they have some vulnerabilities as well.

I was glad to see Eastern perform vs Ball St. I was good to know they are still together and got to wash that bad taste out of their mouth even if it was vs a bad team. Now we can get back to appreciating the EM team we know. You and I both lost on WM last week and I hated it, but got to respect how CM didn't quit though and they probably get a bounce in their step from it. At this point with the QB situation what it is for WM, I think EM is better than WM right now and CM going to find it tough this week as well. Now as long as we don't have torrential rain the entire game making things a little more predictable, EM should emerge with the win.

Hope you have a great one on the plays and in the 'shoe.

I appreciate very much the comments on FSU/Cuse.

Yeah, CMU fought but really they had everything go their way...freshman QB stunk, torrential rain, BS kickoff line drive, lucky deep ball....it went on and on and on. Agree I have Eastern rated higher than Western with the freshman going...

 

[KJ]

Great week for tOSU to roll imo...enjoy

 

[majent]

Great week for tOSU to roll imo...enjoy

Man i think we disagree on everything going back to the discussion of the pac 12. I think tOSU will mail it in as they now are basically out of the CFB barring a major miracle where there are a bunch of 2 loss teams and tOSU somehow wins the B1G title.

I think they'll struggle to win let alone cover the 15.

 

[Marsski]

Man i think we disagree on everything going back to the discussion of the pac 12. I think tOSU will mail it in as they now are basically out of the CFB barring a major miracle where there are a bunch of 2 loss teams and tOSU somehow wins the B1G title.

I think they'll struggle to win let alone cover the 15.

I don't know what to think about OSU honestly. If I can get them @ -14 or less I'll consider taking it...Urban Meyer teams not known for mailing it in but that was devastating loss and Sparty defense is solid while Bucks are kind of a mess...Wouldn't be surprised by another dogfight

 

[Marsski]

I'd like to take Akron plus the points tomorrow night but hard to bet without knowing whether Ragland can go...Drop off for Miami @ Qb and would jump on Zips if I knew he wasn't going...As I said last week, I do think Miami is overrated when you look at their record back to when Ragland came in last yr.

 

[Marsski]

ADD:

TCU +7 to win 1 unit (-115)

 

[s--k]

I'd like to take Akron plus the points tomorrow night but hard to bet without knowing whether Ragland can go...Drop off for Miami @ Qb and would jump on Zips if I knew he wasn't going...As I said last week, I do think Miami is overrated when you look at their record back to when Ragland came in last yr.

I was surprised the OU D didn't do a better job, were you? It was really one of the better outputs by the Redhawks this year, regardless of who was at QB for them.

Coming in Mia had only scored 28+ pts 3x on the year (31, 31, 29 vs some bad teams). Mia had only topped 400y 2x on the year. Either seemed Mia was doing better than expected or OU D was playing worse than expected. Mia outgained them and essentially handed OU 10 free pts OU O did little to earn (13y of offense to get those 10 pts after getting TO and SOD). OU was better team, clearly, but it has caused me to reconsider some things I thought about Mia.

I generally do not believe Akron is very good. They are "good enough" to play with teams that aren't significantly better than them, Mia is not significantly better than them, but I'm not sure they are any worse either. As the line climbs, I see 6, makes me hesitant to lay alot with Mia, but I thought about playing Redhawks when I first saw the line at open.

Like is Miami somehow improving and was last week illustration of that or are they still in the below average category, the game vs OU was a on-off performance unlikely duplicated?

 

[s--k]

Maybe just the OU D isn't as good as I thought it was.

 

[mrob]

I also was thinking Miami but I can't lay the points. I hope EMU pounds the hell out of the Chips and I get some $$ back I lost on WMU haha

 

[Marsski]

I was surprised the OU D didn't do a better job, were you? It was really one of the better outputs by the Redhawks this year, regardless of who was at QB for them.

Coming in Mia had only scored 28+ pts 3x on the year (31, 31, 29 vs some bad teams). Mia had only topped 400y 2x on the year. Either seemed Mia was doing better than expected or OU D was playing worse than expected. Mia outgained them and essentially handed OU 10 free pts OU O did little to earn (13y of offense to get those 10 pts after getting TO and SOD). OU was better team, clearly, but it has caused me to reconsider some things I thought about Mia.

I generally do not believe Akron is very good. They are "good enough" to play with teams that aren't significantly better than them, Mia is not significantly better than them, but I'm not sure they are any worse either. As the line climbs, I see 6, makes me hesitant to lay alot with Mia, but I thought about playing Redhawks when I first saw the line at open.

Like is Miami somehow improving and was last week illustration of that or are they still in the below average category, the game vs OU was a on-off performance unlikely duplicated?

It's a fair question, and the proof will be in the pudding tonight. I'm not really high on OU's defense to be honest with you. Mass hung 50 on them, and Kansas had one of the better performances of the year against them. At the game, the size difference between Miami's WR and OU's small corners was really evident. A lot of the completed passes seemed to be as a result of this size difference. Akron corners go 6'1 and 6'2 so not sure Miami will be as effective. I wasn't particularly impressed with Miami's back-up. They have won exactly one game without Ragland in 2 years, I think that speaks for itself. Their defense isn't anything special, OU ran zone read for good yardage, burned them deep, picked them apart in zone etc...

As for Akron, there's a bunch on the line tonight and I like wily old coaches which Chuck D'Amato certainly is in my book. They have found a way to win two close MAC games, and I expect the same tonight. I'll probably stay off the game because IF Ragland plays it will be a huge emotional lift (and game upgrade) for the Redskins. But if I knew he wasn't going, I would take a stab on the Zippies...

 

[Marsski]

*Can't lose ML parlay 1 to win 2.24: Ohio State/Louisville/Indiana/USC/Michigan/Fresno St


*Will lose

 

[s--k]

Thanks for the thoughts looking back on the MOh-OU game. Will have to see where the line goes.

Akron's O has been limited without Ball and the receivers are down considerably over last year, although the longer this ssn has gone on the receiving unit has gotten better. Akron does have a decent D vs teams their own size.

I think the line is a little curious. MOh is -6, but they are 4-6 and lost 3 of their last 4. Akron is 5-4 (4-1 MAC) and won 4 of their last 5.

For those that make PR and their own lines I would wonder what they had on this game. Either people are valuing MOh more than their results have shown, or people are disregarding the Zips performances.

 

[Marsski]

Thanks for the thoughts looking back on the MOh-OU game. Will have to see where the line goes.

Akron's O has been limited without Ball and the receivers are down considerably over last year, although the longer this ssn has gone on the receiving unit has gotten better. Akron does have a decent D vs teams their own size.

I think the line is a little curious. MOh is -6, but they are 4-6 and lost 3 of their last 4. Akron is 5-4 (4-1 MAC) and won 4 of their last 5.

For those that make PR and their own lines I would wonder what they had on this game. Either people are valuing MOh more than their results have shown, or people are disregarding the Zips performances.

I don't really make PRs, but on a N field I would have these teams right around PK....

 

[ksimpsc]

I had that line around 4-4.5 at current location. MiaOH QB concern is there.

 

[Marsski]

Weather should be clear in Athens tomorrow night. Expecting Toledo to have their way through the air and the Bobcats to put up their usual 30+.

ADD:

Toledo/Ohio U. Over 64.5 to win 1 unit

 

[Timh]

College Football: Ragland could return under center for RedHawks
http://www.daytondailynews.com/spor...r-center-for-redhawks/EvS9HcaG241qyACncWQ9uO/

 

[Marsski]

Spread up to 9...assuming Ragland is going...too much line value here for me not to bite on a small play

ADD:

Akron +9 to win half unit

 

[B.A.R.]

Talk to me about the total in C-Bus...

 

[Timh]

11/07 03:44 PM PST

College Football

GAME #101-102

Akron - QB Thomas Woodson (Suspension) is OUT Tuesday vs. Miami Ohio

 

[Timh]

11/07 02:29 PM PST

College Football

GAME #101-102

Miami Ohio - QB Gus Ragland (Lower Body) is upgraded to probable Tuesday vs. Akron

 

[inZane]

11/07 02:29 PM PST

College Football

GAME #101-102

Miami Ohio - QB Gus Ragland (Lower Body) is upgraded to probable Tuesday vs. Akron

That's probably why the line jumped to -9.5...

Sucks for us Zips backers.

 

[s--k]

It just hit 10.5 on my end. A full TD higher than it I thought it should be regardless of QB, I have to take some of that on the Zips for a small play. Got to think some Ragland possibility of playing was baked into the rise from 3.5 to 6-ish. He will be an emotional lift and is a better overall playmaker, but can't justify that many pts for him alone. MiaOh D is still bad. Just hope Akron has enough to exploit against it.

 

[booksbestfriend]

How is the Zip D?

 

[s--k]

Akron D can play pretty good as long as they aren't playing good Os...say like Toledo...teams that have more talent and operate at high levels. They have some guys on D and should be able to matchup against the mid-pack MAC teams. I really think Akron's O will be the key, they need to hold up their end of the bargain and then I'd think Zips could be ok.

 

[Timh]

Question is how is Akron back up QB?

 

[booksbestfriend]

Akron D can play pretty good as long as they aren't playing good Os...say like Toledo...teams that have more talent and operate at high levels. They have some guys on D and should be able to matchup against the mid-pack MAC teams. I really think Akron's O will be the key, they need to hold up their end of the bargain and then I'd think Zips could be ok.

Depends on what side if the total you sit. I'm looking for an under play. I could care less if the Zips score, just want the D to hold them out of the endzone. FG under bets should be autoplays in this conference. Apparently the coaches never got the memo that 3 points can be had by settling at times.

 

[s--k]

Ha....Woodson not playing. Not sure how Akron scores now. Kato Nelson gonna have to ball out and run like crazy!

 

[Marsski]

Well, I lost the bet and had no idea Woodson wouldn't play. I had a busy work schedule and couldn't monitor all night. Such is life when betting is a hobby. Like my bets tomorrow way more anyway....

ADD:

Ohio TT Bobcats Over 30.5 to win 1 unit (-120)

 

[ProV1Colt]

:cheers3:
The back up QB for Akron Nelson wasn't that bad last night. He has some potential

I'm gonna tail on Ohio TT w/ ya tonight.
Lost half my ass last night on a few plays.
I still have a littte ass left.

 

[Marsski]

Talk to me about the total in C-Bus...

I certainly lean to Over 55. Mich State will have success throwing the ball for sure, and OSU hasn't really had a dominant defensive performance against non-scrub squads. Doubting that MSU can run it much though. You would think JT & Co. would be fired up this week, but maybe they just aren't that good. Buckeyes at a crossroads here in my opinion, the season could go either way. Doubt I will be on the total...

 

[booksbestfriend]

Looking at injury situation with W Mich. Any idea what the RB/QB depth looks like?

 

[Marsski]

Looking at injury situation with W Mich. Any idea what the RB/QB depth looks like?

The freshman QB Goddard was pretty shitty in his first start. It was in a driving rainstorm, but he really couldn't complete much other than short stuff to the TE and backs. He did have a little running moxie but Central was stacking the box and daring him to throw and he really couldn't. Maybe he'll be better tonight in good weather but they are tough to bet with him at QB. Running back depth is good, they have very capable Franklin and a few other guys who can do the job. It's a no bet for me, but I'd take Western if you made me...

 

[Marsski]

ADD:

Penn State -31 to win 1 unit

 

[Marsski]

Stockstill going at QB for Blue Raiders...don't let it creep by you. He will hit the career MTSU mark this week unless he shits himself. Had 3 TDs last week and should have similar success against 1-win Charlotte who has #96 defense.

ADD:

M Tenn St -11.5 to win 1 unit

 

[booksbestfriend]

Good looking out. Did not realize he was back. Haven't even sniffed a MTSt game since his injury. With a game under his belt to knock off the rust to boot. Numbers weren't flashy against UTEP, but distribution was there.

 

[majent]

Great week for tOSU to roll imo...enjoy

Kudos KJ to you and everyone else who picked tOSU to blow out Sparty. What a call you made. Excellent.

I could not have missed by more. Urban is amazing at keeping his guys hungry and playing for something. Great, great coach. Most teams would have folded so fast after the 2nd loss.