week 11 plays

HUNT

HUNT

CTG Partner
Staff member
13-17....+3.12 units YTD


Statement game:

Alabama -3 at -110 to win 2 units...

will be adding more units depending on line throughout week...hoping for a 2.5 or lower with game day being there and upsets galore every week yada yada.

Been riding this team all year, and not stopping now.

Bottom line, Alabama is the better team. They play side to side very well defensively and that will negate LSU's speed. The Oline will dominate as will the dline, especially if Cody is back. A little revenge from blowing the game last year in the 4th in Tuscaloosa will be on the player's mind.

I am not impressed by this LSU team, the lines aren't as good as last year and the QB is still very, very green imo.

Alabama has gone into places and just terrorized teams this year, I don't see it stopping here. Forget the conventional pro style offense argument against LSU's d, UGA did whatever it wanted offensively and Bama's is better.

GL all.

Hoping for Ok. State to go higher, but it's hard to fuck with Tech at night at home. I think they may win this week, then OU rolls them.

Iowa +7.5 at -110 for 2 units

Vanderbilt +24.5 at -110 for 1 unit

Minnesota -8 at -110 for 2 units

Notre Dame ML +135 1 unit to win 1.35

write ups below..
 
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Ok I got my 7.5

Iowa +7.5 at -110 for 2 units

So glad I got the hook, it really might come into play. I really think this Iowa team can hang with PSU, and Kinnick is not a road team's best friend. I know PSU is off a bye, but I expect them to be rusty on the road out of the gate. Iowa is no joke as a home team and will give PSU fits. If PSU loses in B10 play, it's here...no way MSU beats them on the road.
 
Sorry RJ..I got it at 7.5 obviously. PSU struggled at Purdue, Iowa is Purdue on steroids...it will be no gimme.
 
Vanderbilt +24.5 to win 1 unit at -120

Overpaid a little, but line keeps moving down. I think the defense can at least hold Florida under 35 and hopefully Vandy can get me a couple touches at home. I believe last week was a look ahead against Duke....and the letdown factor comes into play for UF.
 
Hunt you and me let's ride Bama from here to Miami. Can't believe this line is 3 although I do believe it will be their toughest test. LSU not impressed either but think they match up well with Bama, HOWEVER, Bama wins.

I think I'm gonna ride Penn State to Miami as well but that will be on ML this week. In fact I might be on both teams in this game love Iowa at +10 it was available for awhile but I think +7 is safe. Great test for Penn State I think Iowa a lot like Bama. That Oline has improved so much in one year, as improved as any oline I've ever seen....Iowa top 5 team nationally running the ball IMO. This game should be a dogfight.
 
O-State great to hear you like the plays...your as solid as they get brah.

The way I look at it, this is Bama's toughest test till they get to the SEC championship game and they know it...

People don't like them because they aren't very sexy...that's OK though.
 
Iowa is one of the best plays on the entire card. Think they can win this game outright. Snagged Iowa +9. I would have played Iowa at +6 or more for sure.

I also have a very small lean to Bama, I think that is the right side. This LSU team is a fraud, and Bama is for real. Bama has the better coach, better qb, better run game, and defense. I just can't lay points with Bama here and it is a tough situational spot, but believe Bama is the right side here.

I was very fortunate to win my LSU -24 play last week.

I also would have a very small lean to Vandy and the points, but everytime I try to take the points against Myer he ratfucks me (i.e. Miami game this year). There is no coach that knows the spread more than him. If Florida is up by 24 with 1 minute left he will still have the starters in there trying to cover the number and will kick a field goal or run in a touchdown to cover the number. Florida is in a beauty contest, and I can't get in their way when their goal is to impress pollsters by demolishing and embarrassing their competitors.
 
That's great to hear Sir, I definitely feel good having some solid cappers locking in this play including yourself.
 
sirwinzalot said:
I also would have a very small lean to Vandy and the points, but everytime I try to take the points against Myer he ratfucks me (i.e. Miami game this year). There is no coach that knows the spread more than him. If Florida is up by 24 with 1 minute left he will still have the starters in there trying to cover the number and will kick a field goal or run in a touchdown to cover the number. Florida is in a beauty contest, and I can't get in their way when their goal is to impress pollsters by demolishing and embarrassing their competitors.
Click to expand...

I couldn't agree with that any more
 
Yeah, it's kinda scary going against Florida but Vandy getting 24.5 at home is just flat out ridiculous imo...I believe it's at night too. I take stock in home night games more than others probably.
 
I do too, but in a game I don't think Vandy can win, I wouldn't put as much stock into it. I also would not rate Vandy's homefield advantage as too much of an advantage. I bet Vandy last year against Florida, and that was when Florida showed signs of being worn down, banged up, and not playing well and they covered. Granted it was with fewer points and on the road. If memory serves me right I took 17.5 or 17 points in that contest. So you have more points to play with, and they are at home.

You got a good number at 24.5, and I wish you luck. I would love to see Myer have to sweat to win this game, as he is the biggest asshole in college football. However, I do want to see the asshole win as I have a 1/2 unit on Florida over 10 wins and 1/2 unit on them to win the National title.
 
Hunt I've got a question for you and BAR

Michigan's defense bro?

There is some serious talent over there man. Now, i know at West Virginia Rich Rod was used to giving up a lot of points but I kind of thought it was due to a lack of talent.

This D-coord came over from Stanford though and they dropped the 3-3-5. Just don't get this.

Should I dare to ask another question....., here it is

Rich Rod, is this the right man for the job or do you wish you had a Brian Kelly type right now? -----Let's forget how early it is in his tenure. When that hire is made you are giving up at least two years or so until he gets his system in place. The rewards better be worth it on the backend. Now when he does get his system in place are you going to win national championships?? I haven't seen an offense like that win one since the army days. It'll win some games but not sure it can beat the USC's. Ultra drastic change made at Michigan that's a big commitment and decision.

I know college football needs Big Blue that's what I know. As an OSU fan I want to see Michigan in national title contention.
 
O-State said:
Hunt I've got a question for you and BAR

Michigan's defense bro?

There is some serious talent over there man. Now, i know at West Virginia Rich Rod was used to giving up a lot of points but I kind of thought it was due to a lack of talent.

This D-coord came over from Stanford though and they dropped the 3-3-5. Just don't get this.

Should I dare to ask another question....., here it is

Rich Rod, is this the right man for the job or do you wish you had a Brian Kelly type right now? -----Let's forget how early it is in his tenure. When that hire is made you are giving up at least two years or so until he gets his system in place. The rewards better be worth it on the backend. Now when he does get his system in place are you going to win national championships?? I haven't seen an offense like that win one since the army days. It'll win some games but not sure it can beat the USC's. Ultra drastic change made at Michigan that's a big commitment and decision.

I know college football needs Big Blue that's what I know. As an OSU fan I want to see Michigan in national title contention.
Click to expand...

Wow man, where do I begin?

To answer your first question, the defense is in shambles and Schafer might be let go at the end of the year. Why in the hell do they switch from a 4-3 to a 3-3-5 beginning last week? I don't like having Schafer in the booth either, he needs to be on the field. The DC has to be giving encouragement to the young freshmen etc, becasue honestly there are no leaders on that defense right now. RROd gave Schafer all the control for most of the season, but me thinks he is fed up with the defense and since he switched it to a scheme Schafer is not really in favor of, Schafer's days are numbered. Is it the right move? if they are staying in 4-3 no, but since they want to go to a 3-3-5 permanently it would be the right move to cut ties imo. RROd doesn't want to do anything with the defense, he let's the DC do everything..and it's added stress on him this year, and he didn't expect it. Another thing is, since RR is the grandfather of the modern day spread in some ways, why the hell can't he defend it?


Do I want RRod as coach? you betcha!

I personally am willing to sacrifice these losing seasons (next year will be 6-6 at best) for the future. If he continues to recruit and get his players in, they will be tough to beat every year. I believe they will win national championships. I think people don't realize Lloyd settled for mediocrity and recruited certain types of players. RRod is different, he goes after guys that play fast. Recruiting is the key....they ahve had a few decommitments and they hurt, but there are still a few big fish they can lure in.

His system is so predicated on the QB and Threet just doesn't have it.

I expect Tate Forcier to start right away next year which is why I don't think they will win more than 6 or 7 games next year, but they will be better. Forcier is a gamer and was born to QB in A2. He grew up a UM fan, understands the rivalries..just what UM needs.

QB play is huge in this system, once RRod gets his qb who can RUN and THROW and fast guys on defense, look out.

They are getting a pipeline in Florida for recruiting and this can only help.

All that being said, this is the worst UM team I have ever seen in my life bar none...but I'm willing to sacrifice it.
 
Florida won with that playbook O-State. It can be done...just my opinion though. COllege football might be 100 percent spread based in 5 years.
 
Hunt, appreciate your honesty about your squad. You and BAR are two guys on here that call it how they see it with their team and I respect the hell out of that. They stink this year, they should be a bit better next year, but Rich Rod will piece things together. So many talented run-pass QBs in the pipeline, especially in the southern states. When he finds one and unleashes him on the slow ass Big Ten defenses, I think you and Big Blue fans will be quite happy that they roped him in to A2.
 
HUNT, I think with what is going on down in West Virginia we are seeing what a good coach RR was there.

His hard ass approach that sent Boren to Ohio State is the same way Bo did it so I didn't get any of that negativity in the offseason. New coaches always get rid of those that don't want to stay. Surprising considering Boren's dad played for Bo. He's gonna coach them up and get them ready no question. Those that stay will be Big Ten champions someday I'm sure.


--Disagree that Florida did it with the same offense. That was a pass spread until Tebow came in. BUT Nebraska has done it haven't they.

Forgot about Nebraska.

EDIT: Forcier, looked him up I don't think he's an athlete like in the mold of a Pat White. 4.63 40. Gotta be honest I don't care how good he throws it IMO that's not the answer. The qb you've got now is vastly underrated. Threet he can throw it better than anybody in the Big Ten conference.
 
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J Galt said:
Hunt, appreciate your honesty about your squad. You and BAR are two guys on here that call it how they see it with their team and I respect the hell out of that. They stink this year, they should be a bit better next year, but Rich Rod will piece things together. So many talented run-pass QBs in the pipeline, especially in the southern states. When he finds one and unleashes him on the slow ass Big Ten defenses, I think you and Big Blue fans will be quite happy that they roped him in to A2.
Click to expand...


Thanks bro, and I hope your right about Rich Rod.
 
O-State said:
HUNT, I think with what is going on down in West Virginia we are seeing what a good coach RR was there.

His hard ass approach that sent Boren to Ohio State is the same way Bo did it so I didn't get any of that negativity in the offseason. New coaches always get rid of those that don't want to stay. Surprising considering Boren's dad played for Bo. He's gonna coach them up and get them ready no question. Those that stay will be Big Ten champions someday I'm sure.


--Disagree that Florida did it with the same offense. That was a pass spread until Tebow came in. BUT Nebraska has done it haven't they.

Forgot about Nebraska.

EDIT: Forcier, looked him up I don't think he's an athlete like in the mold of a Pat White. 4.63 40. Gotta be honest I don't care how good he throws it IMO that's not the answer. The qb you've got now is vastly underrated. Threet he can throw it better than anybody in the Big Ten conference.
Click to expand...

Boren leaving hurt, without a doubt. I don't think anyone will ever know the true story behind that...bottom line is you guys got a good one. Your right about Florida, I guess I'm just saying some form of the spread has been winning..flroida, lsu, yada yada. UM throws the ball more than people think.

RRod threw the ball the first 19 plays against Utah with Forcier in the stands...I think he wants to go in the direction he did with Shaun King at Tulane...throw for a lot, run for a bit.

I disagree with Threet. I have watched this kid regress week after week. He is inconsistent on his reads, and does not have the confidence or speed RRod wants from a qb. Yes the freshmen run a lot of bad routes, and that's to be expected, but Threet doesn't help with that either.

Forcier is the truth bro, seriously that 4.63 is a misprint. He is much faster..I would say 4.55 range. He has the moxy to be the QB here, he constantly makes big play after big play...I know it's high school, but I am excited to see him play..I see the potential...but we will see what happens. If he and Shav Beaver enroll in January the QB race will be very interesting.
 
vegaskyle said:
If you get time can i get your other big ten thoughts besides the "ssshhhhhhhh" game ??
Click to expand...


Haha well quick random thoughts...

Here are some interesting stats on UM I pulled from TJB over at GBW, since i know you love stats...


I. The "State of D"

The Michigan "D" is last in the league in
-- scoring defense
-- pass defense (and 10th in pass efficiency defense)
-- 3rd down conversion percentage

U-M is 7th in rushing defense
U-M is 10th in total defense
U-M is 4th in Red Zone Defense, at 76% (this is of course deceptive, lots of TDs-allowed have been from outside the redzone)

But how about Nationally (119 teams)?

Michigan is #90 in total defense (and last in B-10), allowing 393.56 yards per game (USC leads @ 211.63)

Michigan is #96 in scoring defense, allowing 30.9 points per game (USC leads @ 7.1)

Michigan is #64 in rushing defense, allowing 141 yards per game (TCU leads @ 38.9)

Michigan is #101 in pass defense, allowing 252.5 yards per game (USC leads @ 127.5)

Michigan is #85 in pass efficiency defense (USC is #1)

Michigan is #72 in 3rd Down Defense, at 39.7%

Michigan is #27 in Red Zone Defense, at 76% (this is of course deceptive, lots of TDs-allowed have been from outside the redzone)




pretty awful if you ask me......so Minny is worth a look for sure, and UM will have a hard time scoring on Minny D.



MSU/Purdue...no interest in that one...Purdue will be starting Siller again, and UM made him look all world last week. He is actually a local kid...be his first road start.

Ringer will run for 200 though.

Over might be a good play.

Don't really give a shit about rest...

I like the Western situation, but a MAC team against Juice scurrs me...on turf too.
 
Nice call on the State game Hunt, I don't even know how we won. State really was dominated. I like the fact that we are winning games this year that in years past we were losing. Like the picks, will be on Bama and Iowa, not sure about Vandy though. Florida is pounding teams right now.
 
Raidertom said:
Nice call on the State game Hunt, I don't even know how we won. State really was dominated. I like the fact that we are winning games this year that in years past we were losing. Like the picks, will be on Bama and Iowa, not sure about Vandy though. Florida is pounding teams right now.
Click to expand...

Thanks bro, what a great win for Sparty...you are absolutely right they would have folded in years past..awesome game, and more importantly it showed me they can win without Ringer having a big game...even Hoyer wasn't great but they made the big plays.

GL to you too Pags
 
Adding:

Minnesota -8 at -110 for 2 units

Injury situation huge....Threet has a concussion and will not play Satuday and even if he does it won't be pretty, he hasn't praciced all week.

Nick Sheridan is the worst QB in college football.

I would take it up to 11.

Decker is cleared to go for Minny.

Quite a few big plays for me this week...I normally just play a unit a game...wondering what Bob does and watching the Bama line..really want to make that a 4 to 5 unit play but waiting it out for now.
 
on bama at very large units... Iowa, I hope you are right but laying off them this week. I'll be watching it closely and maybe get involved at HT..

GL bro.:cheers:
 
:23_6_114:

On bama as well... and may tail you on minny now that threet is out.

GL this week huntttt:cheers:
 
I would be concerned that Bob is on Alabama.. He could move that line to 4 or 4.5 in a hurry... Could be wrong but if you are looking to add units I would add them now.. But just my opinion.
 
Cap, if Threet is out for sure you won't find a better bet, Sheridan throws like a girl...and can't throw it downfield.

Tee...really thinking it over long and hard man...I really want to save the big one for the SEC championship game though.
 
LOL! I don't know why bro, but your avatar of Saban makes me laugh! I'm confident his Crimson Tide get it done this week! I don't buy into him saying it's not about him, but the players...HE WANTS THIS GAME, and so do his boys!

GL again, bro!

:cheers:
 
az..I had the same reaction as well...it's just funny in a weird way. fuckin dude is so serious.

thanks bro.
 
HUNTDOG said:
Iowa is physical enough to stick with PSU...and being at home is huge.
Click to expand...

physical enough for sure, but not sure they are fast enough?.. PSU will get to the edge much quicker than any team Iowa has played this year.

Trust me bro, I hope you fucking nail it-- just somewhat concerned..
 
HUNT - Since you're a Big 10 guy, I'd love to hear your opinion on the Ohio St @ NW game. I'm already on the Buckeyes -11, but...nonetheless, I'd still like to see your thoughts.

:shake:
 
tee, I hear you man..It's tough going against PSU, but Ithink PSU likes to go up the middle a lot whether it's vertical passing or running behind center and Iowa should be ready. PSU has been doing it with line play on offense all year and I think Iowa's contain will be eonough to keep them in it at least..They also showed me they can score if they have to with the performance last week, althhough PSU and illinois defenses aren't compararable.

Az, honestly haven't read up that much this week on it, but I like OSU coming off a bye giving Beanie and Pryor more time together...I'm not sure on Sutton and baecher's status and obviously i like the chances more with them out. NW runs a very efficient spread with those guys back there and might give OSU fits...gotta think they (OSU) got major revenge on the mind with illinois next week though...possible look ahead and if Baecher and Sutton play id bite on the 11.
 
no problem az...

Bama is my team, has been all year. Best team in the country hands down..not even close. If not for first half miscues, and stupid kickers they would have rolled.

Special thanks to VK and BAR getting me a hard on for Iowa the last few weeks. Shon Greene is one of top 3 or 4 backs in country easily.

adding:

Notre Dame ML +135

1 unit to win 1.35

I think ND is just the better overall team. BC suffers from sketchy qb play and lack of playmakers...I like ND here to win outright.



Notre Dame ML
 
didn't see your card till man it looked nice. on nd ml too
 
thanks buckeye...

Can anyone help me figure out this Michigan team? jeebus.
 
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