-week 11 ncaaf-

[broadwayjoe]

ytd: -7.80

this is the swing week for me for sure. started off +16u, dipped down to below 13, and got some of it back last week. i have said that utah is a top 5 team all year long, and this is where they either prove me right or prove me wrong, but i'm certainly putting my money where my mouth is. had 3 plays that have been over 3u (a big play for me) all year -- 2 in the nfl...one 5u, one 10u that were both wins -- 1 in cfb, which was a sjsu loss vs boise for 5u. 2-1 winning the big one, which was browns hosting the giants getting 8 at home, a line that i thought should be +3. this line i think should be utah -9. it will be the biggest cfb play of the year, just haven't decided if it will be 10u or 15u yet. and btw, i'm well aware of how good tcu is, and i don't think they're very overrated at all. i think this line being this way has a lot to do with a couple of unimpressive wins by utah and a lot of tcu dominating wins. most recently was this past week, where i think if both teams blowout their opponents, utah is favored thursday. another big mistake. if it hits 3, it will likely be a 15u play, and if it should get to 3.5 or 4, it may even be as high as 20u. the books are grossly underrating utah imo. i've been waiting for this for a while, and feel very fortunate that tcu beat byu like they did (which i expected to a certain extent) and although i didn't think they would, even more fortunate they beat unlv the way they did. i fully expected utah to struggle to score and play a close game with new mexico. i don't expect this game to be close. 28-3 utah. this should be one exciting week.


Miami OH +8

Ball State -9.5

BIG PLAY - 15units - UTAH ML +105

Nevada +2.5

Ga Tech +4.5

W Michigan +7.5

Oklahoma State +3

Iowa +7

UCLA +7.5

Cinci +8

SJSU -8

:cheers:

 

[E.T.G.]

why MOH

 

[O-State]

good luck joe..........I think Ohio State dominates this week.

...Like TCU but not sold I can see Utah winnng this.

On a few of those plays you've got.

 

[broadwayjoe]

ETG, buff has been very impressive all season. i was on em last week and faded miami vs kent, so i realize miami has some major weaknesses. however, i like the way the offensive changes have made an impact. of course there will be some growing pains, but i like belton, and i like a few of the other younger guys they have placed into that offense. taylor has been running the ball well and some young receivers are emerging. they were just in the wrong place vs kent and matched up pretty bad. buffalo has a solid running game as kent does, but it's different. it's a lot different type of team. and i think the miami defense matches up a lot better to this type of offense. i don't expect miami to turn the ball over SIX times as they did vs kent, and i expect them to be able to score some points. buff has made major strides and are very well coached and just a solid all around football team. i've liked them most of the year, but there are certain spots that make sense from a line perspective because what they have accomplished, but just don't think they're ready to lay these kind of points in conference (which is why i faded them vs temple). i mean, miami was a favorite to win the east division of the mac, and they have arguably a better offense now. if you can look past the kent game, the previous two games they played better and more competitively on the road in conference games. the bg game was undoubtedly their most complete game of the year, and showed a flash of what they're capable of. that was the time they started making some of these offensive changes. if the defense can live up to their expectations, they still have a shot at going to the mac championship if they win here...

 

[broadwayjoe]

o-state...i am one of the few that has utah rated this high, so i completely understand by looking at the body of work why you'd lean tcu. i just hope you either change your mind or go small, because utah is much much better than the stats show or the overall perception that people have on this team...

i completely agree that ohio state dominates...u know why this game is otb at thegreek?

 

[O-State]

joe I use bookmaker line is up and at 11 there

 

[sirwinzalot]

Oklahoma State +3

On it at +5 love it, think the Cowboys win this game.

Iowa +7

On it at +9 love it, think Iowa has a reasonably decent shot to win this game, and at the least should keep it interesting, they are playing some pretty good football, just have had trouble with turnovers at times and closing games out.

UCLA +7.5

On UCLA +7, could not resist the 7, should have waited to see if it would hit 7.5. Not sure why all the love for Oregon State, was on them last week and loved that bet. I think this team may have been getting too much credit recently, and I love the matchup with UCLA's defensive line at home here, should be able to slow down Rodgers. Then Oregon State qbs have to beat you, Moevao hurt his shoulder and may not be 100% in this game, UCLA plays well at home and had a bye week with their superior coaching staff to work on things. Just can't understand why people are on Oregon State.

Cinci +8

On Cincinnati +8.5 and I will always take a shot with Brian Kelly. I may be in the minority, but I honestly think he is the best coach in the entire country.

Not against you on the others, no opinions on those. Good luck, always good to see another good capper on some of the same plays. I really like these plays you have, these are 4 of my 7 plays for the week. Also have

Nebraska +3 (love the situation here, not to mention going against a terribly overrated KU team on the road - these teams are even on a neutral field and I am getting a field goal, plus the situational angles)
NC State +3.5 (took the opener, could not resist)
Florida State -6 (love the situational angles of this game, not to mention FSU playing good football right now)

Good luck! I smell some money coming your way on the 4 we are both on.

 

[broadwayjoe]

good to see you're seeing things similarly, sirwinzalot. completely agree with ucla; they match up well here.

most of my utah thoughts are in the tcu/utah thread...may add some more during tonight's game

gl fellas

 

[broadwayjoe]

adding:

GaTech ML +170
Ok State ML +135
UCLA ML +275
Cinci ML +260
Colorado St ML +310
Marshall ML +290
Tulane ML +500
NMSt ML +130

Bama -3

Colorado St +10


GL

 

[JML4481]

HUGE HIT for ya on UTAH!!!! Those bastards didn't have to make it so last minute though.....just took two Tums

 

[scraps@midnight]

nice work on the utes joe. good luck the rest of the week... likely on nevada with you tomorrow.

 

[broadwayjoe]

very lucky on that one guys, thanks. that took away all of the bad beats and borderline bad beats from this year combined. back in black.

 

[RetroVK]

you were due for one of those , joe and quite frankly as well as you cap and as hard as you work on it , you deserve it.

nice hit on the BIG PLAY

 

[E.T.G.]

congrats on the big play Joe

 

[Dmoney416]

Grats on the big win there joe - BOL on Saturday.

 

[GmoNavarro]

Congrats Joe !!!

 

[broadwayjoe]

thanks fellas...

it was one of my more tentative plays, and i'm going to middle out of it..have no idea why this line shifted the way it did -- bob? a lot going on in the nba tonight, so i'm just going to sit this one out and root for a 1 or 2 point nevada victory haha

Fresno St ML +100 (to offset Nevada +2.5)

gl tonigth

 

[buckeyeburritos]

really like your card joe.

glad we hit utah last night

 

[broadwayjoe]

couple late adds at bad numbers...always a losing proposition:

Ohio State -12.5

Illinois/W Michigan OVER 63