Week 11 ML Dogs

ProV1Colt

CTG Super Moderator
Staff member
My goodness this season has flown by......

On to Week 11......

Let the discussions begin!!
 
early looks

Purdue
Kansas State
E Caro maybe
USF - (1st game with interim) is a must small at least -Ponies off huge W - @ Tulane in 5 / weak road team.
Arkansas
Hawaii
Ole Miss why not small
 
Can Ball St get two in a row?

Ball State has actually pulled 3 upsets in their 5 MAC games this year (won 3 of 4 straight up as dogs). One of their two losses was as a favorite. So the dog in Ball State MAC games is 4-1 straight up and ATS.

Toledo started conference play on fire 3-0 ATS, big wins, scores and margins. The last two games they have gone 0-2 ATS, but 1-1 SU.

Toledo DL is really good, Eastern Michigan couldn't block them. Toledo's D should make things a lot tougher on Ball St than Kent did last week.

I've seen no lines yet. I'd bet Toledo wins the game despite Ball's great record as a dog this year.
 
Ball State has actually pulled 3 upsets in their 5 MAC games this year (won 3 of 4 straight up as dogs). One of their two losses was as a favorite. So the dog in Ball State MAC games is 4-1 straight up and ATS.

Toledo started conference play on fire 3-0 ATS, big wins, scores and margins. The last two games they have gone 0-2 ATS, but 1-1 SU.

Toledo DL is really good, Eastern Michigan couldn't block them. Toledo's D should make things a lot tougher on Ball St than Kent did last week.

I've seen no lines yet. I'd bet Toledo wins the game despite Ball's great record as a dog this year.
Ball St is +11.5 right now, been hovering between 11 and 12
 
The standard has been upset wins or 3 losses as favorites. At this point in the season there are a lot of teams with 3 wins as dogs and 3 losses as favorites. No team has pulled 4 upsets yet, but two teams have been upset 4x

Here is the tally:

3 straight up wins as dogs:
Ball State, Baylor, Bowling Green, Eastern Michigan, FIU, Georgia Southern, Georgia Tech, Kansas, Kentucky (counting Mizzou last week as upset), Liberty, LSU, MTSU, Notre Dame, Ohio, Troy

4 straight up losses as favorite:
App State, Marshall, Northern Illinois

3 straight up losses as favorites:
Air Force, Central Michigan, FAU, ULL, Miami FL, Nevada, Northwestern, Oklahoma, Texas A&M, UAB, Wisconsin

Edit - I short changed App State by 1 loss as a fav, they join the 4 loss club
 
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Ball St is +11.5 right now, been hovering between 11 and 12

That line makes it tough. Ball State's history this year says they haven't lost by more than 11 in any game vs a G5 team this year.

They also don't score a lot of pts. 20, 16, 25, 17, 44, 23. Those are the pts they've scored the last 6 games which includes 4 MAC games plus UConn and Ga So which are all fairly comparable. The 44 vs NIU was a big comeback and a final in OT. Ball St had 7 pts in the 1H in that one.
 
Ball State has actually pulled 3 upsets in their 5 MAC games this year (won 3 of 4 straight up as dogs). One of their two losses was as a favorite. So the dog in Ball State MAC games is 4-1 straight up and ATS.

Toledo started conference play on fire 3-0 ATS, big wins, scores and margins. The last two games they have gone 0-2 ATS, but 1-1 SU.

Toledo DL is really good, Eastern Michigan couldn't block them. Toledo's D should make things a lot tougher on Ball St than Kent did last week.

I've seen no lines yet. I'd bet Toledo wins the game despite Ball's great record as a dog this year.
Good info, gracias!
 
Eastern Michigan is 0-4 ATS this year as a favorite and have lost 2 of those 4 straight up (Buffalo and NIU). They also needed a come-from-behind effort to beat UMass. Akron has covered 2 of their last 3 and 4 of their last 6. Akron had a legitimate shot to beat another poor MAC favorite in Central Michigan a few weeks ago and earlier had a shot at beating Bowling Green.

ULL is favored again. They have been favored 5x vs FBS this season and have lost 3 of those 5 straight up (Rice, ULM, SMiss). They play Georgia Southern has been dogged 6x this year and have won 3 of those 6 straight up (Nebraska, JMU, ODU)

Cincinnati hasn't covered a spread since September, 0-5 streak and 3 of their wins during that streak have come by very narrow margins (4, 4 and 2). ECU was off back-to-back upset wins prior to their bye week (UCF and BYU).
 
West Virginia. TCU an obvious choice but I really like Texas in the game.

How can we not pound texas 1st half? Seems like a perfect storm the way they get leads on everyone and tcu seems to fall behind every week, I dunno I can go thru another 2nd half like last week w texas, tcu would have beat them and will beat t. hrm
If they play conservative garbage trying to hold a dwindling lead in the 4th. It one thing letting the d close it out vs k-st, tcu a different animal when it comes to scoring points once that offense gets rolling! It so obvious it scares me but can’t see how it not a horns 1st half play then live or 2nd half on tcu?
 
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Eastern Michigan is 0-4 ATS this year as a favorite and have lost 2 of those 4 straight up (Buffalo and NIU). They also needed a come-from-behind effort to beat UMass. Akron has covered 2 of their last 3 and 4 of their last 6. Akron had a legitimate shot to beat another poor MAC favorite in Central Michigan a few weeks ago and earlier had a shot at beating Bowling Green.

ULL is favored again. They have been favored 5x vs FBS this season and have lost 3 of those 5 straight up (Rice, ULM, SMiss). They play Georgia Southern has been dogged 6x this year and have won 3 of those 6 straight up (Nebraska, JMU, ODU)

Cincinnati hasn't covered a spread since September, 0-5 streak and 3 of their wins during that streak have come by very narrow margins (4, 4 and 2). ECU was off back-to-back upset wins prior to their bye week (UCF and BYU).

Sure seems like I get or at least cover and come really close to hitting Akron as a *** dog once every year. I havnt messed w thrm or followed much this year but that Irons kid can be super exciting and make big plays. Just noticed they playing this game right now, lol, god, I have forgotten what the hell it like being busy with life shit after doing nothing for months recovering from my eye surgery. Lol
 
Eastern Michigan is 0-4 ATS this year as a favorite and have lost 2 of those 4 straight up (Buffalo and NIU). They also needed a come-from-behind effort to beat UMass. Akron has covered 2 of their last 3 and 4 of their last 6. Akron had a legitimate shot to beat another poor MAC favorite in Central Michigan a few weeks ago and earlier had a shot at beating Bowling Green.

ULL is favored again. They have been favored 5x vs FBS this season and have lost 3 of those 5 straight up (Rice, ULM, SMiss). They play Georgia Southern has been dogged 6x this year and have won 3 of those 6 straight up (Nebraska, JMU, ODU)

Cincinnati hasn't covered a spread since September, 0-5 streak and 3 of their wins during that streak have come by very narrow margins (4, 4 and 2). ECU was off back-to-back upset wins prior to their bye week (UCF and BYU).

Havnt dug in yet but I already know I’m gonna go into it with a ecu lean. I’ve always liked this team as dogs and they ain’t been disappointing at all once again this year! Now they got a bye to prepare while cincy struggled with navy. Cincy has mostly dominated this series of late, feels like the year ecu matches up well enough to exact a bit of revenge.
 
@2daBank

Akron is doing Akron things. Iron got hurt and hasn't returned, so that certainly doesn't help.

The ECU-Cincy line is crazy considering where that number has been the past 4 years. It's hard to get past that for me with such a small number, but history aside, how the teams have played this year explain it fully.
 
@2daBank

Akron is doing Akron things. Iron got hurt and hasn't returned, so that certainly doesn't help.

The ECU-Cincy line is crazy considering where that number has been the past 4 years. It's hard to get past that for me with such a small number, but history aside, how the teams have played this year explain it fully.

Fair, pretty sure this game last year was one the few times I was against cincy and lost badly, lol. I want to say ecu played them
tough for a lot the game where I thought they could/were gonna cover. Think a blocked fg for a td did in the spread in the 4th. Not that ecu was really in game but played them tough, Cincy had monster 2nd qrtr. If memory serves me correct cincy was just all over Ahlers, sacked him a ton! Cincy has another crazy high sack rate this year just over 11% good for 4th in the country, the main difference might be ecu line has done a fantastic job protecting Ahlers this year only being sacked on 3.5% of dropbacks good for 15th in the country. I think that right there goes a long way deciding this one, does cincy pass rush get home or dies Ahlers have time? Ecu one the best 3rd down offenses in the country and cincy allowing teams to convert over 41% which really damn high for a team w such a good pass rush. Both teams defenses been great in the red zone, the 3rd down discrepancy so great I could see ecu being the team getting more those zed zone opportunities, feel like this ecu team has a ton the same guys with a really bad taste about how this series has went. I think the oline holds up and they win this game.
 
I want to say the 1st game the year ecu played against ncst who I would argue prob has as good a pass rush as cincy and I don’t think they got to Ahlers at all! Ecu oline can without a doubt pass protect!! Really the biggest concern I see for ecu is can the corners hold up? They way down at bottom
the country in yards per pass attempt allowed, that said they don’t get as many sacks as cincy but they do create pressure and cincy hasn’t done nearly as good a job protecting their qb. Maybe this oversimplifying but think it really comes down to which qb has time, I feel pretty confident ecu can keep Ahlers clean and the d can get to Bryant.
 
Mentioned this last week and they put clemson total right bout where I expected. Im not sure if ppl have figured this out yet but ville defense is really freaking good! They got a edge dude who could easily be a top 10 pick who a total game wrecker and they have nfl talent at every level. Clemson-7 with a 52 total puts clemson team total right around 30ish, I said anything 27 or higher I’d be all about the team total under, I don’t think there any chance they score 28 on ville. I think ville very well could win this game but im far more confident saying tigers not scoring 4 tds vs this ville d unless the d turns cunningham over a bunch for points or really short fields. I could easily see that 1 loss turn into a 2 game slide for clemson cause I just don’t think they can score on this ville defense. The question will be can Cunningham make enough plays to win?
 
It would be so pac-12 for huskies to upset the ducks, would that shock anyone?

Not at all. It's a huge rivalry game. We talked about it a little I think in the in game. Oregon should get a lot of credit for their win vs UCLA, but UCLA wasn't outclassed in that game. Oregon coaching decisions got the better of UCLA on a few occasions and the biggest thing was UCLA kicking FGs while Ducks scored TDs. But check that yardage - 448 TY with 6.5 ypp. And a hot / cold Wazzou O lit up this Duck D too - 428 with 5.9 ypp. Ducks allow 5.77 ypp which puts them 5th in the league, just one spot ahead of the vaunted Arizona State D. Oregon run D has good numbers, UW doesn't run much anyway. Oregon pass D rating is more important and Ducks are midpack between Stanford and Cal.

My worry is that the UW D actually is not as good as they have shown at times. Well, I guess we have evidence it is not at UCLA and at ASU....or vs Zona. This isn't the Husky D of old.

But yeah, rivalry aspect. Two head coaches in it for the first time. Two transfer QBs in it for the first time. Two strong offenses, two Ds that can be had - anything could happen.
 
This week feels a bit anti climatic after all the excitement of the last few weeks. Just not a super exciting card, far as dogs go lean ecu, Louisville.

I guess the spot bad for lsu but I couldn’t play ark, I think Kelly have his boys ready to go. Spot has to be built into thst number cause -3 feels short for lsu honestly,

maybe a case for odu? Them and jmu both on 3 game slides, just looking at both seasons im not sure there thst much difference between them?

It gonna be like crazy cold in the rice/wku game, I can’t imagine that would be very favorable for wku, rice no strangers to winning as dd dogs and I could see wku offense struggling w the unusually cold temp.

Feel like you pretty much have to take the points with Nebraska right? They really don’t get blown out, no chance they win but 29.5 really?

Maybe udub. They could certainly go score for score with ducks. The concern gotta be Penix has turned it over in 2 of 3 road games, don’t see many punts in this one, 72 total and dunno how ya play under? It def take 40 points + to win this game.

If Schrader plays for cuse I could prob get behind them, without him no chance, Babers ain’t being very straight forward with that, so no freaking clue.

That bout all I see far as dogs.
 
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Not at all. It's a huge rivalry game. We talked about it a little I think in the in game. Oregon should get a lot of credit for their win vs UCLA, but UCLA wasn't outclassed in that game. Oregon coaching decisions got the better of UCLA on a few occasions and the biggest thing was UCLA kicking FGs while Ducks scored TDs. But check that yardage - 448 TY with 6.5 ypp. And a hot / cold Wazzou O lit up this Duck D too - 428 with 5.9 ypp. Ducks allow 5.77 ypp which puts them 5th in the league, just one spot ahead of the vaunted Arizona State D. Oregon run D has good numbers, UW doesn't run much anyway. Oregon pass D rating is more important and Ducks are midpack between Stanford and Cal.

My worry is that the UW D actually is not as good as they have shown at times. Well, I guess we have evidence it is not at UCLA and at ASU....or vs Zona. This isn't the Husky D of old.

But yeah, rivalry aspect. Two head coaches in it for the first time. Two transfer QBs in it for the first time. Two strong offenses, two Ds that can be had - anything could happen.

Yea, ucla didn’t punt. As you said it just came down to red zone/scoring range. Ducks finished drives bruins didht. I have no faith in husky d, I assume this be pretty similar, no punts, take at least 40 to win. My biggest concern is Penix has had a few road games with turnovers, that would be how ducks get up a score or 2 and huskies have no way to correct it since they prob can’t get stops.
 
There looks like some good off the radar types this week.

Hawaii hosting Utah State?
USU did cover last week vs hapless New Mexico. It took a fake Aggie FG and a fumble return TD to propel them to the 17 pt win. They only outgained the Lobos by 22 yards. Now Hawaii won't attract many fans after getting blowout at Fresno last week, but that might be just what UH needs, a kick in the ass, come home for back-to-back home games and prove you're better than that. Before the Fresno game UH was on a 4-0 spread run with one upset and several other close calls among them. Plus, who doesn't want something serious on the line at 3am eastern when this game will be wrapping up?! I love me some Hawaii home dog ML plays. They beat UNR at home this year, were in it late vs Wyoming. Different staff, but last year they beat Fresno at home as 10.5 pt dog. 2020 they beat UNR at home as 7pt dog. It can happen.

FIU hosting FAU?
First of all, betting FIU is not for everyone. You have to be willing to take it on the chin. Good? Ok. FIU has pulled two upsets this year as DD dogs and another as just under a TD dog. Now they just got their shit kicked in last week at UNT, so that kind of stuff happens to teams like them. But a team like UNT, strong. Lost by 20 to UTSA, strong O. Lost by 19 by UConn, Huskies proving to be pretty respectable. Now, FAU? They've lost straight up 3x this year as a favorite. New staff here for this rivalry game. Taggart or MacIntyre? I'll take MacIntyre, although FAU does have the better roster and all right now. Historically, FAU POUNDS FIU, I mean ugly. So the confidence level can't be high. Just the inconsistency that FAU has shown as a favorite, especially as a road fav, all of their straight up losses as a fav have come on the road and FIU has surprised before this year. Come on Panthers, make a statement here!

Colorado State at Wyoming?-
Another rivalry game - border war - battle for the bronze boot. CSU is actually playing some better football these days. Check the total yardage at San Jose last week, CSU outgained them 468-355 and held the lead at HT. Boise blew them out 2 weeks ago, ok. But they beat Hawaii before that with a 386-257 yardage edge. Only lost to Utah State by 4 although USU was going through some QB attrition that game. It's baby steps here, but some positive signs of life among the recent games. Wyoming has dominated the series, winners of 5 of the last 6. Not sure, Wyoming running game vs this Ram D...it could get ugly...or CSU could win! So I don't know, but it jumped out to me as a possible.

La Tech at UTSA?
Man I got a bunch of bad teams listed here. UTSA has covered a favorite line of more than 3 once this year! All their games are close, excpet for FIU, but FIU still covered that one. LaTech doing some things right, like beating MTSU with a 446-420 yardage edge (although LaTEch was beneficiary of 5 turnovers). Lost a close one to Rice in OT prior. Then, the bad, you know lost at FIU, that's never a good look really, but LaTech was without their starting QB in that one. Lost by 20 to UNT, but McNeil passed for 400+ and they, beat UTEP by 10. Just feels a little like UTSA isn't the same team this year. LaTech O might have something for them. UTSA beat UAB in OT last week, but UAB outgained them 553-494 and UAB is still on their backup QB who previously in 2 games didn't look that good. He put up All Conference worthy numbers on UTSA D last week. Road Runner O still tough with Harris at QB. Seems like some high odds and it is CUSA where there were no big upsets last week, so this week we maybe get back to the theme of the year for their league. UTSA has not been involved in an upset yet this year.

Some more bad teams to investigate, I think I saw some potential Sun Belt dogs.
 
This week feels a bit anti climatic after all the excitement of the last few weeks. Just not a super exciting card, far as dogs go lean ecu, Louisville.

I guess the spot bad for lsu but I couldn’t play ark, I think Kelly have his boys ready to go. Spot has to be built into thst number cause -3 feels short for lsu honestly,

maybe a case for odu? Them and jmu both on 3 game slides, just looking at both seasons im not sure there thst much difference between them?

It gonna be like crazy cold in the rice/wku game, I can’t imagine that would be very favorable for wku, rice no strangers to winning as dd dogs and I could see wku offense struggling w the unusually cold temp.

Feel like you pretty much have to take the points with Nebraska right? They really don’t get blown out, no chance they win but 29.5 really?

Maybe udub. They could certainly go score for score with ducks. The concern gotta be Penix has turned it over in 2 of 3 road games, don’t see many punts in this one, 72 total and dunno how ya play under? It def take 40 points + to win this game.

If Schrader plays for cuse I could prob get behind them, without him no chance, Babers ain’t being very straight forward with that, so no freaking clue.

That bout all I see far as dogs.
Nice analysis. I think it could happen, the ducks are tough at home though.
 
Texas should win but of course you have a lot of conference power going on here. Remember the ok st game penalty situation and now you have the conference needing TCU to boot. TCU playing terrible football right now though.
 
Texas should win but of course you have a lot of conference power going on here. Remember the ok st game penalty situation and now you have the conference needing TCU to boot. TCU playing terrible football right now though.

I was all about tcu early in the season but think they have gotten crazy fortunate. Beating all these ranked teams looks great on paper but did any of them have their starting qb start and/or make it through the entire game? Seems like they have beaten a whole bunch of backups!

As I been saying it seems so freaking obvious to me to play texas 1st half. They get ahead of everyone, then they let everyone back in it. I thought for sure texas was gonna F me again last week, tried their best to let k-st back in that game then handed them the ball with a chance to drive and beat them at the end. Now they face a tcu team who pretty much falls behind every week and comes back. Could there be any 2 more opposite teams? Think you could argue their records should be flipped! Minimum texas should have another win or 2 and tcu should have a L or 2. Don’t think I can handle a 2nd half with a texas-7 ticket, Of course this be the week it the exact opposite, tcu will go up early and texas will come back, lol.
 
How can we not pound texas 1st half?

The 2H issues are well documented but Sarkisian has been really good scripting the 1H of games this season where Texas is a plus 119 points for the season. TCU has been slow out of the gate of late.

The 1H is probably the most painfully obvious play on the board this Saturday so good reason to probably run from it. I'm not, it will be a good-sized play for me. This is going a really energized crowd on Saturday, nothing like TCU has played in front of this season. Estimating a record crowd of 106,000. I expect the Horns to get out of the gate especially quickly.
 
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Texas should win but of course you have a lot of conference power going on here. Remember the ok st game penalty situation and now you have the conference needing TCU to boot. TCU playing terrible football right now though.

No doubt that this is a scary aspect of the game.
 
Another important angle that bears mentioning, thanks.

It can't hurt to have Patterson scheming against TCU for this game. He has a pretty good handle on the players there.
 
The 2H issues are well documented but Sarkisian has been really good scripting the 1H of games this season where Texas is a plus 119 points for the season. TCU has been slow out of the gate of late.

The 1H is probably the most painfully obvious play on the board this Saturday so good reason to probably run from it. I'm not, it will be a good-sized play for me. This is going a really energized crowd on Saturday, nothing like TCU has played in front of this season. Estimating a record crowd of 106,000. I expect the Horns to get out of the gate especially quickly.

Gotta be one the most obvious things ever the way it sets up with these fuvking teams polar opposite. Running ain’t the worst idea but I don’t think I can do it either, if somehow texas doesn’t cover the 1st I think it would prob play out where they are the better 2nd half team: For most part I think texas is just better, last week was all I needed to go thru with full game texas bet, I was kicking myself the entire 2nd for not just playing 1st half, don’t wanna deal w that again. Lol.
 
4 big dogs.....

UConn
South Florida
Rice
Charlotte

I don't understand the Rice-WKU numbers, seems high for Rice who likes to compete vs everyone when dogged.

Not sure I would like USF, but I don't mind the idea of playing against SMU off their last game.

UConn believing in themselves, catch Liberty in a potential let down spot and Liberty has had a couple head scratcher games.

Charlotte could either win, or lose by 40 and probably equal chance of each one of those things occurring.

But yeah, those seems somewhat reasonable!
 
Texas should win but of course you have a lot of conference power going on here. Remember the ok st game penalty situation and now you have the conference needing TCU to boot. TCU playing terrible football right now though.
If you are into conspiracies in CFB there will likely be no better game in the next decade than this one
 
The 2H issues are well documented but Sarkisian has been really good scripting the 1H of games this season where Texas is a plus 119 points for the season. TCU has been slow out of the gate of late.

The 1H is probably the most painfully obvious play on the board this Saturday so good reason to probably run from it. I'm not, it will be a good-sized play for me. This is going a really energized crowd on Saturday, nothing like TCU has played in front of this season. Estimating a record crowd of 106,000. I expect the Horns to get out of the gate especially quickly.

Game line still at 7 but the 1H line went from 3.5 to 6.
 
Fuck work! It gets in the way of my gambling! Put work behind me this afternoon and have been capping for a few hours now....think I found me some good ones!

Rice 1st Half
Rutgers 1st Half
Neers FG
UVA FG
How about a state of Mississippi DH sweep this Saturday with the Dogs and Rebs? Southern Miss line is crashing down as well....all eyes are on the state of Mississippi this Sat!

Hope to find more soon....

:popcorn:
 
There looks like some good off the radar types this week.

Hawaii hosting Utah State?
USU did cover last week vs hapless New Mexico. It took a fake Aggie FG and a fumble return TD to propel them to the 17 pt win. They only outgained the Lobos by 22 yards. Now Hawaii won't attract many fans after getting blowout at Fresno last week, but that might be just what UH needs, a kick in the ass, come home for back-to-back home games and prove you're better than that. Before the Fresno game UH was on a 4-0 spread run with one upset and several other close calls among them. Plus, who doesn't want something serious on the line at 3am eastern when this game will be wrapping up?! I love me some Hawaii home dog ML plays. They beat UNR at home this year, were in it late vs Wyoming. Different staff, but last year they beat Fresno at home as 10.5 pt dog. 2020 they beat UNR at home as 7pt dog. It can happen.

FIU hosting FAU?
First of all, betting FIU is not for everyone. You have to be willing to take it on the chin. Good? Ok. FIU has pulled two upsets this year as DD dogs and another as just under a TD dog. Now they just got their shit kicked in last week at UNT, so that kind of stuff happens to teams like them. But a team like UNT, strong. Lost by 20 to UTSA, strong O. Lost by 19 by UConn, Huskies proving to be pretty respectable. Now, FAU? They've lost straight up 3x this year as a favorite. New staff here for this rivalry game. Taggart or MacIntyre? I'll take MacIntyre, although FAU does have the better roster and all right now. Historically, FAU POUNDS FIU, I mean ugly. So the confidence level can't be high. Just the inconsistency that FAU has shown as a favorite, especially as a road fav, all of their straight up losses as a fav have come on the road and FIU has surprised before this year. Come on Panthers, make a statement here!

Colorado State at Wyoming?-
Another rivalry game - border war - battle for the bronze boot. CSU is actually playing some better football these days. Check the total yardage at San Jose last week, CSU outgained them 468-355 and held the lead at HT. Boise blew them out 2 weeks ago, ok. But they beat Hawaii before that with a 386-257 yardage edge. Only lost to Utah State by 4 although USU was going through some QB attrition that game. It's baby steps here, but some positive signs of life among the recent games. Wyoming has dominated the series, winners of 5 of the last 6. Not sure, Wyoming running game vs this Ram D...it could get ugly...or CSU could win! So I don't know, but it jumped out to me as a possible.

La Tech at UTSA?
Man I got a bunch of bad teams listed here. UTSA has covered a favorite line of more than 3 once this year! All their games are close, excpet for FIU, but FIU still covered that one. LaTech doing some things right, like beating MTSU with a 446-420 yardage edge (although LaTEch was beneficiary of 5 turnovers). Lost a close one to Rice in OT prior. Then, the bad, you know lost at FIU, that's never a good look really, but LaTech was without their starting QB in that one. Lost by 20 to UNT, but McNeil passed for 400+ and they, beat UTEP by 10. Just feels a little like UTSA isn't the same team this year. LaTech O might have something for them. UTSA beat UAB in OT last week, but UAB outgained them 553-494 and UAB is still on their backup QB who previously in 2 games didn't look that good. He put up All Conference worthy numbers on UTSA D last week. Road Runner O still tough with Harris at QB. Seems like some high odds and it is CUSA where there were no big upsets last week, so this week we maybe get back to the theme of the year for their league. UTSA has not been involved in an upset yet this year.

Some more bad teams to investigate, I think I saw some potential Sun Belt dogs.
FAU is 0-4 on the road and FIU seems like good game-stinker pattern. They just had their stinker on the road. I'll likely be taking FIU.

As for huskies/ducks, I really want to hit huskies as there's always a pac12 head scratcher but I just don't think they can get the stops that they'll need.
 
Oregon's won the last 3, DNP 2020. Total MOV in those three: 17 = 5.66 margin per game. Washington's average final record in those years was 7.3 wins 5.6 losses (10-4, 8-5, 4-8). So except for 2018 those weren't really great Washington teams compared to Oregon who was 9-4, 12-2 and 10-4 in those years (and Ducks O avg low to mid 30s for all those seasons). Point being, Oregon has been the better team and Washington still managed to play it close (or within what this spread currently is). Washington is definitely down defensively from those Petersen and Lake teams, but the offense is better, perhaps considerably better than even 2018 and 2019 Husky teams.
 
Went with
WVU, UNT, FIU
Not in love with any, still tempted to take UW

Im scared that Penix will turn it over a few times and don’t really think huskies can get any stops. Only hope I have for huskies really is the fact ducks or whomever the pac12 team that looks like they could get a playoff spot usually craps the bed right about now. At the moment pac-12 has 3 teams who could legit get into playoffs so maybe won’t happen this year? Or maybe they all do, usc beats ucla (even tho I like ucla big in that game), then usc loses to Irish, ducks either slip up before or loses the pac-12 ship and they all manage to keep that conf out the playoffs yet again! Lol
 
I could see Purdue beating Illini but I can’t bet those games do doesn’t do me any good to look real closely. Prob not great Illini lost last week either:
 
My card for Saturday.....

4, 5, 6, & 7-teamer RR with:

Rutgers Scarlet Knights 1st Half +255
Rice Owls 1st Half +285
West Virginia Mountaineers +240
Virginia Cavaliers +170
Virginia Tech Hokies +280
Army Black Knights +290
South Carolina Gamecocks +250
Risked $64 ($1 per Parlay) to Win $23,150.53

4, 5, & 6-teamer RR with:

Rice Owls 1st Half +285
Rutgers Scarlet Knights 1st Half +255
Mississippi State Bulldogs 1st Half +360
West Virginia Mountaineers +240
Ole Miss Rebels +310
South Carolina Gamecocks +250
Risked $35 ($1.59 per Parlay) to Win $13,849.08

BOLTA!!
 
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