Can Ball St get two in a row?
Ball St is +11.5 right now, been hovering between 11 and 12Ball State has actually pulled 3 upsets in their 5 MAC games this year (won 3 of 4 straight up as dogs). One of their two losses was as a favorite. So the dog in Ball State MAC games is 4-1 straight up and ATS.
Toledo started conference play on fire 3-0 ATS, big wins, scores and margins. The last two games they have gone 0-2 ATS, but 1-1 SU.
Toledo DL is really good, Eastern Michigan couldn't block them. Toledo's D should make things a lot tougher on Ball St than Kent did last week.
I've seen no lines yet. I'd bet Toledo wins the game despite Ball's great record as a dog this year.
Ball St is +11.5 right now, been hovering between 11 and 12
Good info, gracias!Ball State has actually pulled 3 upsets in their 5 MAC games this year (won 3 of 4 straight up as dogs). One of their two losses was as a favorite. So the dog in Ball State MAC games is 4-1 straight up and ATS.
Toledo started conference play on fire 3-0 ATS, big wins, scores and margins. The last two games they have gone 0-2 ATS, but 1-1 SU.
Toledo DL is really good, Eastern Michigan couldn't block them. Toledo's D should make things a lot tougher on Ball St than Kent did last week.
I've seen no lines yet. I'd bet Toledo wins the game despite Ball's great record as a dog this year.
West Virginia. TCU an obvious choice but I really like Texas in the game.
Eastern Michigan is 0-4 ATS this year as a favorite and have lost 2 of those 4 straight up (Buffalo and NIU). They also needed a come-from-behind effort to beat UMass. Akron has covered 2 of their last 3 and 4 of their last 6. Akron had a legitimate shot to beat another poor MAC favorite in Central Michigan a few weeks ago and earlier had a shot at beating Bowling Green.
ULL is favored again. They have been favored 5x vs FBS this season and have lost 3 of those 5 straight up (Rice, ULM, SMiss). They play Georgia Southern has been dogged 6x this year and have won 3 of those 6 straight up (Nebraska, JMU, ODU)
Cincinnati hasn't covered a spread since September, 0-5 streak and 3 of their wins during that streak have come by very narrow margins (4, 4 and 2). ECU was off back-to-back upset wins prior to their bye week (UCF and BYU).
Eastern Michigan is 0-4 ATS this year as a favorite and have lost 2 of those 4 straight up (Buffalo and NIU). They also needed a come-from-behind effort to beat UMass. Akron has covered 2 of their last 3 and 4 of their last 6. Akron had a legitimate shot to beat another poor MAC favorite in Central Michigan a few weeks ago and earlier had a shot at beating Bowling Green.
ULL is favored again. They have been favored 5x vs FBS this season and have lost 3 of those 5 straight up (Rice, ULM, SMiss). They play Georgia Southern has been dogged 6x this year and have won 3 of those 6 straight up (Nebraska, JMU, ODU)
Cincinnati hasn't covered a spread since September, 0-5 streak and 3 of their wins during that streak have come by very narrow margins (4, 4 and 2). ECU was off back-to-back upset wins prior to their bye week (UCF and BYU).
@2daBank
Akron is doing Akron things. Iron got hurt and hasn't returned, so that certainly doesn't help.
The ECU-Cincy line is crazy considering where that number has been the past 4 years. It's hard to get past that for me with such a small number, but history aside, how the teams have played this year explain it fully.
It would be so pac-12 for huskies to upset the ducks, would that shock anyone?
Not at all. It's a huge rivalry game. We talked about it a little I think in the in game. Oregon should get a lot of credit for their win vs UCLA, but UCLA wasn't outclassed in that game. Oregon coaching decisions got the better of UCLA on a few occasions and the biggest thing was UCLA kicking FGs while Ducks scored TDs. But check that yardage - 448 TY with 6.5 ypp. And a hot / cold Wazzou O lit up this Duck D too - 428 with 5.9 ypp. Ducks allow 5.77 ypp which puts them 5th in the league, just one spot ahead of the vaunted Arizona State D. Oregon run D has good numbers, UW doesn't run much anyway. Oregon pass D rating is more important and Ducks are midpack between Stanford and Cal.
My worry is that the UW D actually is not as good as they have shown at times. Well, I guess we have evidence it is not at UCLA and at ASU....or vs Zona. This isn't the Husky D of old.
But yeah, rivalry aspect. Two head coaches in it for the first time. Two transfer QBs in it for the first time. Two strong offenses, two Ds that can be had - anything could happen.
How can we not pound texas 1st half?
Nice analysis. I think it could happen, the ducks are tough at home though.This week feels a bit anti climatic after all the excitement of the last few weeks. Just not a super exciting card, far as dogs go lean ecu, Louisville.
I guess the spot bad for lsu but I couldn’t play ark, I think Kelly have his boys ready to go. Spot has to be built into thst number cause -3 feels short for lsu honestly,
maybe a case for odu? Them and jmu both on 3 game slides, just looking at both seasons im not sure there thst much difference between them?
It gonna be like crazy cold in the rice/wku game, I can’t imagine that would be very favorable for wku, rice no strangers to winning as dd dogs and I could see wku offense struggling w the unusually cold temp.
Feel like you pretty much have to take the points with Nebraska right? They really don’t get blown out, no chance they win but 29.5 really?
Maybe udub. They could certainly go score for score with ducks. The concern gotta be Penix has turned it over in 2 of 3 road games, don’t see many punts in this one, 72 total and dunno how ya play under? It def take 40 points + to win this game.
If Schrader plays for cuse I could prob get behind them, without him no chance, Babers ain’t being very straight forward with that, so no freaking clue.
That bout all I see far as dogs.
Nice analysis. I think it could happen, the ducks are tough at home though.
I haven't looked it up but that sounds rightVery tough! What like 35 in a row or something?
Texas should win but of course you have a lot of conference power going on here. Remember the ok st game penalty situation and now you have the conference needing TCU to boot. TCU playing terrible football right now though.
How can we not pound texas 1st half?
Texas should win but of course you have a lot of conference power going on here. Remember the ok st game penalty situation and now you have the conference needing TCU to boot. TCU playing terrible football right now though.
The 2H issues are well documented but Sarkisian has been really good scripting the 1H of games this season where Texas is a plus 119 points for the season. TCU has been slow out of the gate of late.
The 1H is probably the most painfully obvious play on the board this Saturday so good reason to probably run from it. I'm not, it will be a good-sized play for me. This is going a really energized crowd on Saturday, nothing like TCU has played in front of this season. Estimating a record crowd of 106,000. I expect the Horns to get out of the gate especially quickly.
4 big dogs.....
UConn
South Florida
Rice
Charlotte
If you are into conspiracies in CFB there will likely be no better game in the next decade than this oneTexas should win but of course you have a lot of conference power going on here. Remember the ok st game penalty situation and now you have the conference needing TCU to boot. TCU playing terrible football right now though.
The 2H issues are well documented but Sarkisian has been really good scripting the 1H of games this season where Texas is a plus 119 points for the season. TCU has been slow out of the gate of late.
The 1H is probably the most painfully obvious play on the board this Saturday so good reason to probably run from it. I'm not, it will be a good-sized play for me. This is going a really energized crowd on Saturday, nothing like TCU has played in front of this season. Estimating a record crowd of 106,000. I expect the Horns to get out of the gate especially quickly.
FAU is 0-4 on the road and FIU seems like good game-stinker pattern. They just had their stinker on the road. I'll likely be taking FIU.There looks like some good off the radar types this week.
Hawaii hosting Utah State?
USU did cover last week vs hapless New Mexico. It took a fake Aggie FG and a fumble return TD to propel them to the 17 pt win. They only outgained the Lobos by 22 yards. Now Hawaii won't attract many fans after getting blowout at Fresno last week, but that might be just what UH needs, a kick in the ass, come home for back-to-back home games and prove you're better than that. Before the Fresno game UH was on a 4-0 spread run with one upset and several other close calls among them. Plus, who doesn't want something serious on the line at 3am eastern when this game will be wrapping up?! I love me some Hawaii home dog ML plays. They beat UNR at home this year, were in it late vs Wyoming. Different staff, but last year they beat Fresno at home as 10.5 pt dog. 2020 they beat UNR at home as 7pt dog. It can happen.
FIU hosting FAU?
First of all, betting FIU is not for everyone. You have to be willing to take it on the chin. Good? Ok. FIU has pulled two upsets this year as DD dogs and another as just under a TD dog. Now they just got their shit kicked in last week at UNT, so that kind of stuff happens to teams like them. But a team like UNT, strong. Lost by 20 to UTSA, strong O. Lost by 19 by UConn, Huskies proving to be pretty respectable. Now, FAU? They've lost straight up 3x this year as a favorite. New staff here for this rivalry game. Taggart or MacIntyre? I'll take MacIntyre, although FAU does have the better roster and all right now. Historically, FAU POUNDS FIU, I mean ugly. So the confidence level can't be high. Just the inconsistency that FAU has shown as a favorite, especially as a road fav, all of their straight up losses as a fav have come on the road and FIU has surprised before this year. Come on Panthers, make a statement here!
Colorado State at Wyoming?-
Another rivalry game - border war - battle for the bronze boot. CSU is actually playing some better football these days. Check the total yardage at San Jose last week, CSU outgained them 468-355 and held the lead at HT. Boise blew them out 2 weeks ago, ok. But they beat Hawaii before that with a 386-257 yardage edge. Only lost to Utah State by 4 although USU was going through some QB attrition that game. It's baby steps here, but some positive signs of life among the recent games. Wyoming has dominated the series, winners of 5 of the last 6. Not sure, Wyoming running game vs this Ram D...it could get ugly...or CSU could win! So I don't know, but it jumped out to me as a possible.
La Tech at UTSA?
Man I got a bunch of bad teams listed here. UTSA has covered a favorite line of more than 3 once this year! All their games are close, excpet for FIU, but FIU still covered that one. LaTech doing some things right, like beating MTSU with a 446-420 yardage edge (although LaTEch was beneficiary of 5 turnovers). Lost a close one to Rice in OT prior. Then, the bad, you know lost at FIU, that's never a good look really, but LaTech was without their starting QB in that one. Lost by 20 to UNT, but McNeil passed for 400+ and they, beat UTEP by 10. Just feels a little like UTSA isn't the same team this year. LaTech O might have something for them. UTSA beat UAB in OT last week, but UAB outgained them 553-494 and UAB is still on their backup QB who previously in 2 games didn't look that good. He put up All Conference worthy numbers on UTSA D last week. Road Runner O still tough with Harris at QB. Seems like some high odds and it is CUSA where there were no big upsets last week, so this week we maybe get back to the theme of the year for their league. UTSA has not been involved in an upset yet this year.
Some more bad teams to investigate, I think I saw some potential Sun Belt dogs.
Went with
WVU, UNT, FIU
Not in love with any, still tempted to take UW
I'm probably one of the few in here that thinks tcu will beat UT. I may flip, I have 1:10
I dumped wvu as they could fuck up a wet dream. Swapped with tcu.Went with
WVU, UNT, FIU
Not in love with any, still tempted to take UW