Week 11 ML Dog Discussion
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s--k
Goodbye to Romance College Football
Updated through 10 weeks:
Underdogs of .....number of upset winners
+6 to 10.5.....40x
+11 to 13.5....11x
+14 to 19.5 ....17x
+20 and up....6x
Best performers:
Wyoming with wins as +9, +6, +11.5, +15
North Texas with wins as +7, +11.5, +17.5
Charlotte with wins as +13, +8, +17
Teams with two upset wins dogged 6 pts and higher:
Arkansas, Army, Buffalo, Navy, North Carolina, Northwestern, South Alabama, UTSA, Vanderbilt, Wake Forest
Underdogs of .....number of upset winners
+6 to 10.5.....40x
+11 to 13.5....11x
+14 to 19.5 ....17x
+20 and up....6x
Best performers:
Wyoming with wins as +9, +6, +11.5, +15
North Texas with wins as +7, +11.5, +17.5
Charlotte with wins as +13, +8, +17
Teams with two upset wins dogged 6 pts and higher:
Arkansas, Army, Buffalo, Navy, North Carolina, Northwestern, South Alabama, UTSA, Vanderbilt, Wake Forest
rambler882
Head of the Justin Fields Fan Club
Underdogs I'm loving this week as I sit today - Indiana, Oregon, and USC for ML contention.
ksimpsc
Pretty much a regular
Pretty ridiculous but Cocks on a win streak and there is a small mathematical chance for them to go to Atlanta that starts with them beating Florida. Line opened at -15 most places and down to -11 with injury news of Del Rio. Del Rio back up is Austin Appleby who in 2014 and 2015 at Purdue managed in 15 games 263-479 54.9% comp for 2709 yds 18 TDs 19 INTs and at Florida 4 gms 44-72 61.1% 470 yds 3TD 1INT. So not great numbers for an offense that is not great anyways. Cocks D on the other hand is currently ranked 53 in the country and offense ranked now 119 but much improved team since Bentley went in.
Cocks vs Umass
First game with Bentley and the offensive production was the best of the season. 23:21 first downs favoring UMass, 8-17 UMass:6:12 Cocks on third down, 389:395 total yards favoring the cocks. USC lost 2 fumbles UMass lost 2 fumbles and 2 INTs for TO margin of -2.
Cocks vs Tenn
19:16 first down favoring cocks as well as 325-297 total yards 5-14:5-16 third downs 2INT and 1 fumble from Tenn for -3 TO margin. Cocks actually just won this game outright across the board.
Opening drive TD score from SC. Tenn answers two series later. SC INT and score short field from the Tenn 31. 14-7 halftime. SC FG to open up, and Tenn returns the kickoff for a TD 17-14. Tenn fumbles at the 50 and SC takes it right down to score from the 50yd line. 24-14. Tenn 7 play 77yd TD. 24-21 and then a little prevent defense and Tenn missing a 58 yard FG as time goes out.
Cocks v Mizzou
22:24 first downs favoring Mizzou, 8-18:8-17 third downs about the same, 465-428 total offense favoring Mizzou. 76:77 play run by each team! Mizzou had 1 lost fumble and 2 INTs for a TO margin of -3.
Pretty good offensive production in the second quarter by both teams. In the third cocks miss a FG to go up 24-21 directly after a mizzou TD to open the half. Next Drive INT at the SC 2 yard line followed by a 9 play 98 yd TD drive that included a big 3rd and 6 25 yd pass to Debo and a Dowdle 20 yd TD run. In the 4th three drives in a row featured missed FGs 2 by Mizzou 1 by SC. Last series of the game was a long sustained drive from the Mizzou 12 that ended in an INT in the redzone.
Cocks v Florida
Would not think if you asked me before Bentley went in that we would even be in a position for this game to matter. But cocks are on a run and now are in Bowl contention and even slight chance for the SEC East Contention if the chips were to fall perfect. I think it is a long shot but motivational factor with Muschamp playing Florida and wanting to continue to grow the program. Bentley is a young kid still, should be a high school senior currently, so he could very easily have a bad game on the road. Being at home has been a huge edge for us in some of these games so first big road test against the best defense in the country is a tall order but maybe we can pull it out. As you can see from the games above we are +8 TO margin and 10 turnovers total in our last 3 games and have scored on almost all of those turnovers. If we can somehow win the TO battle and continue to capitalize on those mistakes then I think we could have a real shot in this game. To be noted that against two SEC team and three games total Bentley has not turned the ball over at all.
Cocks vs Umass
First game with Bentley and the offensive production was the best of the season. 23:21 first downs favoring UMass, 8-17 UMass:6:12 Cocks on third down, 389:395 total yards favoring the cocks. USC lost 2 fumbles UMass lost 2 fumbles and 2 INTs for TO margin of -2.
Cocks vs Tenn
19:16 first down favoring cocks as well as 325-297 total yards 5-14:5-16 third downs 2INT and 1 fumble from Tenn for -3 TO margin. Cocks actually just won this game outright across the board.
Opening drive TD score from SC. Tenn answers two series later. SC INT and score short field from the Tenn 31. 14-7 halftime. SC FG to open up, and Tenn returns the kickoff for a TD 17-14. Tenn fumbles at the 50 and SC takes it right down to score from the 50yd line. 24-14. Tenn 7 play 77yd TD. 24-21 and then a little prevent defense and Tenn missing a 58 yard FG as time goes out.
Cocks v Mizzou
22:24 first downs favoring Mizzou, 8-18:8-17 third downs about the same, 465-428 total offense favoring Mizzou. 76:77 play run by each team! Mizzou had 1 lost fumble and 2 INTs for a TO margin of -3.
Pretty good offensive production in the second quarter by both teams. In the third cocks miss a FG to go up 24-21 directly after a mizzou TD to open the half. Next Drive INT at the SC 2 yard line followed by a 9 play 98 yd TD drive that included a big 3rd and 6 25 yd pass to Debo and a Dowdle 20 yd TD run. In the 4th three drives in a row featured missed FGs 2 by Mizzou 1 by SC. Last series of the game was a long sustained drive from the Mizzou 12 that ended in an INT in the redzone.
Cocks v Florida
Would not think if you asked me before Bentley went in that we would even be in a position for this game to matter. But cocks are on a run and now are in Bowl contention and even slight chance for the SEC East Contention if the chips were to fall perfect. I think it is a long shot but motivational factor with Muschamp playing Florida and wanting to continue to grow the program. Bentley is a young kid still, should be a high school senior currently, so he could very easily have a bad game on the road. Being at home has been a huge edge for us in some of these games so first big road test against the best defense in the country is a tall order but maybe we can pull it out. As you can see from the games above we are +8 TO margin and 10 turnovers total in our last 3 games and have scored on almost all of those turnovers. If we can somehow win the TO battle and continue to capitalize on those mistakes then I think we could have a real shot in this game. To be noted that against two SEC team and three games total Bentley has not turned the ball over at all.
booksbestfriend
On Johnny's Shitlist
Taking the points with Vandy, but it is one I have circled for this thread. Can't help but think most of the SECe is favorable for upsets this weekend. Seems like good value in the conference.
Others of interest
Tex Tech +380
Col St +190
Ore St +375
UTEP +130
Others of interest
Tex Tech +380
Col St +190
Ore St +375
UTEP +130
s--k
Goodbye to Romance College Football
Arz St +195. Ugly home dog off bye. If, if, Qb Wilkins is right this could be a game.
Duke +325. Home finale for Duke in big rivalry game. I think last time UNC was here they trashed the locker room and last year Heels embarrassed them (66-31). Duke is maybe better than perception on them, but going to be hard to get enough stops to win outright.
Not sure I play those ML, but may play them with pts.
Still too many to narrow down yet on Saturday.
Duke +325. Home finale for Duke in big rivalry game. I think last time UNC was here they trashed the locker room and last year Heels embarrassed them (66-31). Duke is maybe better than perception on them, but going to be hard to get enough stops to win outright.
Not sure I play those ML, but may play them with pts.
Still too many to narrow down yet on Saturday.
Two Utes
Manual Toothbrushes FTW
Utah is off a bye as well and have several players back that they have been without for the last 4 games. This game does worry me as a Ute fan though, they always give us fits. It all depends on the blitz pickup, if Utah counters/handles it they should win. If Utah doesn't have an answer for the blitzes, they could be in trouble.
and Duke did it
CHSGTMD
Pretty much a regular
Way too busy with other stuff lately and have had two weeks of break even or slightly down.
My list of plays at this time that I will take points just narrowing down ML angles
Vandy +3 / +155 @ Mizzou ( more fade of Mizzou )
Ole Miss +10 / +315 @ aTm (who has the best backup and will bounce back)
Syracuse +7 / +230 home vs NCST ( home dog )
Kansas +10 / +310 home vs Iowa St ( Kansas totally different at home )
Iowa +21.5 / +950 home vs Michigan ( make the season type motivation for Iowa )
Others not on list but possible
Kentucky +14 @ Tenn
LSU @ Arkansas +7
Minn +7 @ Nebraska
UTSA +22 @ La Tech
My list of plays at this time that I will take points just narrowing down ML angles
Vandy +3 / +155 @ Mizzou ( more fade of Mizzou )
Ole Miss +10 / +315 @ aTm (who has the best backup and will bounce back)
Syracuse +7 / +230 home vs NCST ( home dog )
Kansas +10 / +310 home vs Iowa St ( Kansas totally different at home )
Iowa +21.5 / +950 home vs Michigan ( make the season type motivation for Iowa )
Others not on list but possible
Kentucky +14 @ Tenn
LSU @ Arkansas +7
Minn +7 @ Nebraska
UTSA +22 @ La Tech
s--k
Goodbye to Romance College Football
So many candidates look appealing this week, I'm going to group the following as good-to-decent underdogs that are taking on a vulnerable or suspicious favorite. Those would include:
Kentucky+385
What game hasn't Tennessee looked beatable in (not including Tenn Tech) vs Kentucky who has exceeded expectations several times. UT deserved to win comfortably last year, but that score is misleading. Lately UK plays Vols close early then Vols pour it on.
Rutgers+430
Both teams 0-fer in B1G play. Rutgers run D worrisome. MSU rarely has looked like a competent team themselves.
Syracuse+245
NC St alternates good showings and embarrassing ones the last 4 weeks. The team that shoulda, coulda, woulda beat Clemson vs the team that lost to them 54-0. What is Dungy's status?
Georgia+325
Really like the pointspread value in this one, suppose I like the SU odds as well. Auburn gets back-to-back game saving INTs in wins vs Ole Miss and Vandy...how much should we be concerned by last week's Auburn game? Is the Georgia rushing output vs UK to be believed?
Vandy+155
Not typical odds I look for when playing MLs...but they would appear to be the better team.
Arkansas+230
Much respect for the Tiger D...and some respect for Hog O vs a quality D last week. One team likely has some confidence in home finale, the other a hangover after O was dominated by Bama. LSU lost last 2 vs Ark week after losing to Bama.
Minnesota+225
Hard for me to look past some misleading finals in favor of Minnesota, but certainly believe they will be up for this one big time. Gophers believe this will be the start of their "playoff" run to win the division. Neb only averaging 25 ppg vs B1G teams not named Ohio St.
A couple others I'm a little hung up on:
Marshall+295
Aside from some lucky covers, I've already lost more than I'd like to admit on Marshall this year. Do I really want to do it again? In two home games vs CUSA they only lost by 6 and 3, that's the good news. The bad news it was vs FAU and Charlotte. As was mentioned, no Stockstill for MTSU.
Oregon St+355
Beavers scored less than 20 in 4 out of 6 PAC 12 games is concern. UCLA is a complete basket case.
Cal+500
Talk of W St's potential for taking the division in the Apple Cup. I don't think teams look 2 weeks ahead, but W St's head may be full of big dreams and lofty praise currently. Cougar D is pretty decent, but before playing Zona they did allow Ore St and Az St to score 31 and 32. Ore St is a limited offensive team and since Az St lost their QB early in that one, it was the true Fr playing most of the game (when Devils weren't running sparky). Both teams figure to score alot, in a shootout figure Cal would have a chance right? Cal scored 51 total the last 2 games, something tells me they could come close to that just in this game.
Something about SC's QB taking on the FL D makes me nervous even though e will be the best QB on the field. Kind of the same thing with Ole Miss, I am not going to take them to win with a new QB.
I'll see if I can come up with some compelling info on any of those to push me towards a play.
Kentucky+385
What game hasn't Tennessee looked beatable in (not including Tenn Tech) vs Kentucky who has exceeded expectations several times. UT deserved to win comfortably last year, but that score is misleading. Lately UK plays Vols close early then Vols pour it on.
Rutgers+430
Both teams 0-fer in B1G play. Rutgers run D worrisome. MSU rarely has looked like a competent team themselves.
Syracuse+245
NC St alternates good showings and embarrassing ones the last 4 weeks. The team that shoulda, coulda, woulda beat Clemson vs the team that lost to them 54-0. What is Dungy's status?
Georgia+325
Really like the pointspread value in this one, suppose I like the SU odds as well. Auburn gets back-to-back game saving INTs in wins vs Ole Miss and Vandy...how much should we be concerned by last week's Auburn game? Is the Georgia rushing output vs UK to be believed?
Vandy+155
Not typical odds I look for when playing MLs...but they would appear to be the better team.
Arkansas+230
Much respect for the Tiger D...and some respect for Hog O vs a quality D last week. One team likely has some confidence in home finale, the other a hangover after O was dominated by Bama. LSU lost last 2 vs Ark week after losing to Bama.
Minnesota+225
Hard for me to look past some misleading finals in favor of Minnesota, but certainly believe they will be up for this one big time. Gophers believe this will be the start of their "playoff" run to win the division. Neb only averaging 25 ppg vs B1G teams not named Ohio St.
A couple others I'm a little hung up on:
Marshall+295
Aside from some lucky covers, I've already lost more than I'd like to admit on Marshall this year. Do I really want to do it again? In two home games vs CUSA they only lost by 6 and 3, that's the good news. The bad news it was vs FAU and Charlotte. As was mentioned, no Stockstill for MTSU.
Oregon St+355
Beavers scored less than 20 in 4 out of 6 PAC 12 games is concern. UCLA is a complete basket case.
Cal+500
Talk of W St's potential for taking the division in the Apple Cup. I don't think teams look 2 weeks ahead, but W St's head may be full of big dreams and lofty praise currently. Cougar D is pretty decent, but before playing Zona they did allow Ore St and Az St to score 31 and 32. Ore St is a limited offensive team and since Az St lost their QB early in that one, it was the true Fr playing most of the game (when Devils weren't running sparky). Both teams figure to score alot, in a shootout figure Cal would have a chance right? Cal scored 51 total the last 2 games, something tells me they could come close to that just in this game.
Something about SC's QB taking on the FL D makes me nervous even though e will be the best QB on the field. Kind of the same thing with Ole Miss, I am not going to take them to win with a new QB.
I'll see if I can come up with some compelling info on any of those to push me towards a play.
s--k
Goodbye to Romance College Football
Care to share any thoughts on Pitt. I had wanted to take them with the spread, am a little gun shy after last week. Suppose that makes it a decent situation, Pitt off their first real all-around poor performance of the year and a Clemson team that just beat the living hell out of an overmatched team. What are you thinking?
CHSGTMD
Pretty much a regular
Like all in the first group except Georgia so you should double down on that one lol
I am going to look to do some first half ML this week, especially with home dogs like Syracuse, Arkansas and add a few more
Appreciate all your posts s-k and can't get the pictures of your command central out of my head.
Will see about posting pics of our outdoor deck and sports bar, especially if the sunsets stay great and the wins come through:cheers3:
I am going to look to do some first half ML this week, especially with home dogs like Syracuse, Arkansas and add a few more
Appreciate all your posts s-k and can't get the pictures of your command central out of my head.
Will see about posting pics of our outdoor deck and sports bar, especially if the sunsets stay great and the wins come through:cheers3:
booksbestfriend
On Johnny's Shitlist
Cincy +345. don't know why Cincy keeps popping up for me, but I see this as a 1 score game.
SMU +230
Syracuse +245 If Dungy is a go
So Miss +120 If Mullens is a go
I believe Houston has quit. They are vastly superior to their competition. I think it was final 4 or nothing. Once their bubble burst, they have been playing half assed. I will stay away from playing games in which they are involved, but another loss would not surprise me in the least.
SMU +230
Syracuse +245 If Dungy is a go
So Miss +120 If Mullens is a go
I believe Houston has quit. They are vastly superior to their competition. I think it was final 4 or nothing. Once their bubble burst, they have been playing half assed. I will stay away from playing games in which they are involved, but another loss would not surprise me in the least.
s--k
Goodbye to Romance College Football
yeah, isn't that the way it works!
I had Georgia last week, and watched it ofcourse, but again watching 8 games at once you miss alot and forget alot.
Looking back, UGA did outgain them 460-308, how was it a 27-24 game that Dawgs had to kick a time expiring game winner? Georgia fumbled 3x and kicked a FG from the 8, one of UK's TDs was a 38 yard drive following a muffed punt. Another fumble was inconsequential and the 3rd stopped a drive in UK territory. UK lost 2 TOs, one led to a UGA FG and one was inconsequential.
Dawgs have the SEC's #3 rush D, Auburn is #5. The 40 att for 186 UK gained on Georgia was their most allowed of the year, but consider that UK came in avg 278 rush ypg in 4 of the last 5 entering that game (didn't count the rush numbers UK had vs Bama who is just other-worldly). So it was a hot Cat running O.
Auburn is a hot running O as well, but Pettway playing? How effective will he be if he does play? Pettway avg 192 rushing himself the last 4 games! Johnson who played in just 3 of the 4 in that span rushed for just 99 on 23 att. Truitt ran for just 124 in that span. Kam Martin had 80 vs Arkansas, but just 8 in the other 3. I'm worried that Pettway is the key cog in that attack and if he is out the run game not only will be less effective and less dangerous, but it asks White to do more. And White has been pretty good, but I wonder how much of the run threat in the O has helped him?
Admit that Georgia O can be kind of schitzo, but they certainly have some potential at RB and QB. The OL isn't great, sometimes kinda bad actually, the WRs aren't great, but the O has shown flashes. Eason did lead game winning drives at Miz and at UK, he can make some plays, but has some ups and downs too.
Other food for thought, doesn't mean much I suppose, but Georgia is winless at home vs SEC (lost to Ten, Vand). Now facing Auburn as their final shot at an SEC home win, they haven't gone winless in home SEC play since 1962. They've only had 3 home games overall (actually 0-3 ATS including the Nichols game) and after Auburn play 2 nonconference home games to close the season.
We know that Vandy beat Georgia, but they did so on just 171 yards (to Georgia's 421). Auburn beat Vandy, but Vandy O had much more life gaining their best output vs any SEC opponent 341y (entered the game avg just 239 in SEC play). Teams go up and down, they improve, they regress. But allowing Vandy 100y over their O average? It isn't the only time. Auburn allowed Ole Miss 570y, that is 130y over their average! Now Georgia's O isn't as good as Ole Miss when they are clicking, but the last 2 weeks Auburn's D is allowing 100y more than their opponents normally get. Contrast that with Georgia, who held Florida to just 231, I know doesn't sound good right, Gator O sucks. But believe it or not entering that game Gators were averaging 431y in 4 SEC games! And UK was averaging 350 ypg in their 6 SEC games (including vs FL and Bama)...and UGA held them 40y below that average. If we just look at UK's recent O yardage when they really got things going, Cats avg'd 481 their prior 3 before facing Georgia. And Dawgs held them 173 below that recent avg.
So just saying here...home dog, with a competent D...or better D than Auburn?...Kirby has plenty of experience getting ready for Auburn. An O that can be unpredictable, but at times can show flashes. Auburn's best weapon is injured or may not play? I think it is a decent shot on the Dawgs here to get the upset.
s--k
Goodbye to Romance College Football
Minnesota's beat 2 teams with a winning record...5-4 Colorado St and 5-4 Maryland. The last 3 weeks Minny has beat 3-6 Purdue, 3-6 Illinois, 2-7 Rutgers. Yuck. Purdue led 28-20 at HT. They beat ILL 40-17 but Min only outgained them 283-245. Rutgers erased a double digit deficit and had a 32-31 lead with 4 minutes left. A bunch there not to like and Min hasn't played shit and hasn't done shit. I've seen teams like this before and learned the hard way that they aren't always automatic fade material even though signs point to doing so.
Min's O avg:
9 games in 2016 - 33.4 ppg, 387 ypg, 5.5 ypp, 210 rush ypg, 177 pass ypg, 56% completions, 3rd down 40.74%, sacks allowed 9
13 games 2015 - 22.5 ppg, 359 ypg, 5.34 ypp, 144 rush ypg, 215 pass ypg, 58% completions, 3rd down 38.86%, sacks allowed 18
Min's D avg
9 games in 2016 - 23.1 ppg, 242 ypg, 4.79 ypp, 81 rush ypg, 161 pass ypg, 54% completions allowed, 3rd down allowed 41.18%, sacks 25, +12 turnover margin
13 games 2015 - 25.2 ppg, 345 ypg, 4.90 ypp, 166 rush ypg, 179 pass ypg, 58% completions allowed, 3rd down allowed 41.63%, sacks 22, -4 turnover margin
Some of the O numbers are up, but you could say that is because they haven't faced 3 of their tougher opponents yet. They've run for 200+ 6x this year. They only did that 3x all of 2015. And while they are passing less, the sacks allowed is improved. 9 allowed is 2nd best B1G and interesting Nebraska is just 6 allowed for 1st B1G. Leidner is also running more and gaining more. He has 4x games out of 8 played where he ran for 39, 50, 74, 76 yards.
The impressive thing about the D numbers is the increase in sacks, they are on pace for their best sack numbers since 2008 (34). The +12 TO margin has also been a big part of their games.
In September Nebraska avg'd 485 ypg and scored 38.5 ppg. Since then Neb avg'd just 340 ypg and scoring 21 ppg. Take out tOSU and those numbers improve to just 374 ypg and 25.5 ppg.
The last 2 games vs Wisconsin and Ohio St have brought the Huskers back down to earth, but remember vs Purdue, the Boilder led 14-10 at HT and it was just 17-14 Neb 3rd qrt. Vs IU Neb led just 24-22 in the 4th qrt. Vs ILL Neb led just 17-16 early 4th qrt. They played solid D, but were hardly setting the world on fire for a team that would open 7-0.
Nebraska has played the much tougher schedule, but even vs the weaker teams they haven't really played as if they were head-and-shoulders above those teams. These two teams feel kind of even to me.
I see this game being tight and the Ds should control most of the action. On paper Neb has more play makers and balanced O, but we haven't seen much over the last 5 games from them. Both teams are 4-2 and need this win for division crown hopes. I think this is right were Min wants to be and will have alot of confidence. Nebraska is reeling a bit, and it is must win for them as well. I just can't expect them to flip some kind of switch on offense and it feels like they aren't playing to their potential.
And remember Armstrong still throws some ill advised passes at times and just a 51% passer (worse than last year). And with 3 games to go this year his TD-INT ratio is 11-8, last year through 9 regular season games his ratio was 16-7...so he has 1 more INT at this point 2016 than he did 2015. His rush numbers are up (thanks to a 132y effort vs NW).
Last year Neb won 48-25 -2.5 and had 464-366 yard edge. It was 17-14 before Neb scored 21 straight. Min -3 TOs, Neb scored on D. Last time in Lincoln 2014 Min won 28-24 +10 with a 416-397 yardage edge. Neb -3 TOs and Min outrushed them 281-174.
Minnesota hasn't won 5 straight Big Ten games in a row since 1962. They're on a 4 game run now.
I like Gophers more with the points than I do outright, but it wouldn't surprise me at all to see them win.
Min's O avg:
9 games in 2016 - 33.4 ppg, 387 ypg, 5.5 ypp, 210 rush ypg, 177 pass ypg, 56% completions, 3rd down 40.74%, sacks allowed 9
13 games 2015 - 22.5 ppg, 359 ypg, 5.34 ypp, 144 rush ypg, 215 pass ypg, 58% completions, 3rd down 38.86%, sacks allowed 18
Min's D avg
9 games in 2016 - 23.1 ppg, 242 ypg, 4.79 ypp, 81 rush ypg, 161 pass ypg, 54% completions allowed, 3rd down allowed 41.18%, sacks 25, +12 turnover margin
13 games 2015 - 25.2 ppg, 345 ypg, 4.90 ypp, 166 rush ypg, 179 pass ypg, 58% completions allowed, 3rd down allowed 41.63%, sacks 22, -4 turnover margin
Some of the O numbers are up, but you could say that is because they haven't faced 3 of their tougher opponents yet. They've run for 200+ 6x this year. They only did that 3x all of 2015. And while they are passing less, the sacks allowed is improved. 9 allowed is 2nd best B1G and interesting Nebraska is just 6 allowed for 1st B1G. Leidner is also running more and gaining more. He has 4x games out of 8 played where he ran for 39, 50, 74, 76 yards.
The impressive thing about the D numbers is the increase in sacks, they are on pace for their best sack numbers since 2008 (34). The +12 TO margin has also been a big part of their games.
In September Nebraska avg'd 485 ypg and scored 38.5 ppg. Since then Neb avg'd just 340 ypg and scoring 21 ppg. Take out tOSU and those numbers improve to just 374 ypg and 25.5 ppg.
The last 2 games vs Wisconsin and Ohio St have brought the Huskers back down to earth, but remember vs Purdue, the Boilder led 14-10 at HT and it was just 17-14 Neb 3rd qrt. Vs IU Neb led just 24-22 in the 4th qrt. Vs ILL Neb led just 17-16 early 4th qrt. They played solid D, but were hardly setting the world on fire for a team that would open 7-0.
Nebraska has played the much tougher schedule, but even vs the weaker teams they haven't really played as if they were head-and-shoulders above those teams. These two teams feel kind of even to me.
I see this game being tight and the Ds should control most of the action. On paper Neb has more play makers and balanced O, but we haven't seen much over the last 5 games from them. Both teams are 4-2 and need this win for division crown hopes. I think this is right were Min wants to be and will have alot of confidence. Nebraska is reeling a bit, and it is must win for them as well. I just can't expect them to flip some kind of switch on offense and it feels like they aren't playing to their potential.
And remember Armstrong still throws some ill advised passes at times and just a 51% passer (worse than last year). And with 3 games to go this year his TD-INT ratio is 11-8, last year through 9 regular season games his ratio was 16-7...so he has 1 more INT at this point 2016 than he did 2015. His rush numbers are up (thanks to a 132y effort vs NW).
Last year Neb won 48-25 -2.5 and had 464-366 yard edge. It was 17-14 before Neb scored 21 straight. Min -3 TOs, Neb scored on D. Last time in Lincoln 2014 Min won 28-24 +10 with a 416-397 yardage edge. Neb -3 TOs and Min outrushed them 281-174.
Minnesota hasn't won 5 straight Big Ten games in a row since 1962. They're on a 4 game run now.
I like Gophers more with the points than I do outright, but it wouldn't surprise me at all to see them win.
s--k
Goodbye to Romance College Football
Wash St allowing 61% completions on D, 4th worse in the PAC 12, 1 spot below Cal's pass D. And W St allows 7.6 ypa, 3rd worst, again, 1 spot below Cal. W St does have strong 13-11 TD-INT ratio however. Webb and the Cal passing O is off their worst effort of the year vs UW 23-47(49%)-262-5.6 ypa-1-3 ratio. That is pretty typical of what UW does to opposing attacks. Cal actually passed for nearly 100y more than UW normally allows. Vs USC Cal 34-53(64%)-333-6.3ypa-2-1 did better than USC typically allows. So I think a bounce-back from Cal O is in order this week.
While led by Goff and not Webb last year, Cal QB was 33-45(73%)-390-8.6ypa-4-1. Wash St was fairly respectable on D last year, as they are this year. I could see Webb doing something similar. This is Chad Hansen's 2nd game back.
W St is only getting 1.6 sacks per game to Cal's 1.5, although Cougs do get nearly 2 more tfl per game. Cal has only allowed 15 sacks all year, t-34th nationally, which doesn't sound especially great, but put it in perspective with sacks per pass attempt which is 1 sack allowed per 31 pass attempts. Compare that to Illinois for instance who has allowed the same 15 sacks, but they allow 1 sack every 16 pass attempts. So 15 is pretty good considering how much they throw it. Now W St is allowing 23 sacks, but that comes out to 1 sack per 20 attempts.
+10 TO margin has been big for W St (2nd best PAC 12), last year they were -1 and -17 2 years ago. Cal's 11 INTs include 3 vs UW and 3 vs SD St, both some pretty good pass Ds, W St is more average. Somehow W St allowed Ore St success passing like they rarely see ...59%-327-8.4ypa-2-0. That was their best yards by 100, 3rd best compl %, only the 3rd game this year Ore St didn't throw an INT. Now Ore St did something amazing vs Cal as well, like 474 rush yards allowed to Beavers!
Spent most of this time talking about Cal O matching up vs W St D. We know that Cal D is going to be a liability. W St isn't however very explosive in big plays. Just 41 plays of 20+ yards, just 16 of 30+ (that is 2nd worst PAC 12). That shouldn't matter, the Cal D is bad, very bad. Looking at over as well. But taking away the game vs Zona, WST only beat Ore St 35-31, Az St 37-32 and UCLA 27-21.
2015 Cal-17 vs W St 34-28
2014 Cal+3' at W St 60-59
Cal has won 10 of last 11.
Looks like rain should be out of there by kickoff, it will however be cold, below 50. Cal has beat two ranked teams this year (Tex and Utah). W ST is seeking their first 7-0 conference start since 1932.
While led by Goff and not Webb last year, Cal QB was 33-45(73%)-390-8.6ypa-4-1. Wash St was fairly respectable on D last year, as they are this year. I could see Webb doing something similar. This is Chad Hansen's 2nd game back.
W St is only getting 1.6 sacks per game to Cal's 1.5, although Cougs do get nearly 2 more tfl per game. Cal has only allowed 15 sacks all year, t-34th nationally, which doesn't sound especially great, but put it in perspective with sacks per pass attempt which is 1 sack allowed per 31 pass attempts. Compare that to Illinois for instance who has allowed the same 15 sacks, but they allow 1 sack every 16 pass attempts. So 15 is pretty good considering how much they throw it. Now W St is allowing 23 sacks, but that comes out to 1 sack per 20 attempts.
+10 TO margin has been big for W St (2nd best PAC 12), last year they were -1 and -17 2 years ago. Cal's 11 INTs include 3 vs UW and 3 vs SD St, both some pretty good pass Ds, W St is more average. Somehow W St allowed Ore St success passing like they rarely see ...59%-327-8.4ypa-2-0. That was their best yards by 100, 3rd best compl %, only the 3rd game this year Ore St didn't throw an INT. Now Ore St did something amazing vs Cal as well, like 474 rush yards allowed to Beavers!
Spent most of this time talking about Cal O matching up vs W St D. We know that Cal D is going to be a liability. W St isn't however very explosive in big plays. Just 41 plays of 20+ yards, just 16 of 30+ (that is 2nd worst PAC 12). That shouldn't matter, the Cal D is bad, very bad. Looking at over as well. But taking away the game vs Zona, WST only beat Ore St 35-31, Az St 37-32 and UCLA 27-21.
2015 Cal-17 vs W St 34-28
2014 Cal+3' at W St 60-59
Cal has won 10 of last 11.
Looks like rain should be out of there by kickoff, it will however be cold, below 50. Cal has beat two ranked teams this year (Tex and Utah). W ST is seeking their first 7-0 conference start since 1932.
s--k
Goodbye to Romance College Football
Georgia 50 for 162
Cal 20 for 140
Marshall 20 for 57
If Armstrong doesn't play I almost like Minnesota less. Something about the team rallying around the backup QB, everyone steps up, etc. Line drop may be due to speculation on Armstrong. If line and odds come back up I may take Min ML. Got cold feet on UK, but loaded up on the line.
Cal 20 for 140
Marshall 20 for 57
If Armstrong doesn't play I almost like Minnesota less. Something about the team rallying around the backup QB, everyone steps up, etc. Line drop may be due to speculation on Armstrong. If line and odds come back up I may take Min ML. Got cold feet on UK, but loaded up on the line.
s--k
Goodbye to Romance College Football
Thanks. Still a few to go. Minn spread and odds did come back up when Armstrong confirmed a go. So got that a little over 2:1, 50 for 105 on them.
The Pitt game, CrimsonK planted the seed on that one. I had thought Pitt could keep it close and was going to back them with the pts. The story all year has been how bad their D is playing, but lost in that is that their O is pretty good. A 10:1 longshot, you noticed I didn't have any convincing words on that one, but hell what is ten buck risk for a 10:1 return! Lots of bad penalty calls in that one, but two huge 4th qrt plays on O that Clemson failed to execute and gave Pitt a shot they maybe wouldn't have otherwise earned on their own.
The Pitt game, CrimsonK planted the seed on that one. I had thought Pitt could keep it close and was going to back them with the pts. The story all year has been how bad their D is playing, but lost in that is that their O is pretty good. A 10:1 longshot, you noticed I didn't have any convincing words on that one, but hell what is ten buck risk for a 10:1 return! Lots of bad penalty calls in that one, but two huge 4th qrt plays on O that Clemson failed to execute and gave Pitt a shot they maybe wouldn't have otherwise earned on their own.
s--k
Goodbye to Romance College Football
A couple people here had Iowa ML? That Ole Miss comeback win was pretty great for you guys!
319 won vs 70 lost for me feels good. Glad I laid off UK ML, as it turned out they were lucky to back-door cover that one late. Minn had their shot, but lost..that's ok...feel pretty terrible about how Cal is playing though, currently down 35-7.
319 won vs 70 lost for me feels good. Glad I laid off UK ML, as it turned out they were lucky to back-door cover that one late. Minn had their shot, but lost..that's ok...feel pretty terrible about how Cal is playing though, currently down 35-7.
CrimsonK
Sid Bream Supporter
Ya hit two +900's in same day - incredible. Best week ive ever had as a bettor and not even close. Fun when the variance turns and the ball bounces your way. I wouldn't say UK cover was lucky - 29-29 FD's, Cats with 635-599 yardage edge although UT had massive ypp edge.
s--k
Goodbye to Romance College Football
Awesome!! Great to hear that.
I actually turned the UK-UT game off. It was 49-22 halfway through the 4th. I needed 2 scores to cover. Marked it a loss in my book and everything. Later I figured I would check back and I see Vols running the clock out with a minute left and the score is 49-36! Here I come to find out UK got TD - onside kick recover - TD in a 5-1/2 minute span! It feels really good to correct the book from a loss to a win!
CrimsonK
Sid Bream Supporter
I didn't actually see any games until the 7 Pm slate so I could be incorrect I'm just going on team sites and box scores so now I see why it could be considered lucky haha
