Week 11 MADDEN SIMULATIONS (34-21-1 ATS) , POINT SPREAD RATINGS ( 20-12-1), WORLD CUP FUTURES KICKOFF, and NY STATE HS FOOTBALL PLAYOFFS $$$

DOUBLEUP4LIFE

Pretty much a regular
What's up Family ???

Whoa what a weekend on deck


USA USA USA :flag:FUTBOL WORLD CUP...Been waiting 4 years for this !!! Discipline is the key in the first games of group stage, as many countries play ultra conservative trying not to fall behind on goal differential , expecting a fair amount of draws ...
Don't laugh but the FIFA video game went 15-1 in the knockout round and correctly predicted France pre tournament....Posting all 50 pre tournament sim results right here ..



NFL stretch run ( Who are the real contenders , who are the pretenders ?) ..Heating up at the right time going 7-2 +$966 last week...Point Spread Ratings went 3-0 , while the Madden Sims went 3-2 ....



Major lake effect SNOW storm pushes SECTION 6 ( BUFFALO/Wny) vs SECTION 5 ( Rochester) back to Monday night....With the games moved to the home section 5 schools....My old school BENNETT has been my investment bread and butter..Monday they travel to 4 in a row section 5 AA champion McQuaid ...Current line is BENNETT-8 ...JAMESTOWN -1 travels to HILTON ...Both could be 3× mortgage wagers .





Anyways

Enough RAMBLING
Let's get to GAMBLING :moneyeyes:






BEST OF HEALTH, HAPPINESS, WEALTH,BLESSINGS, and LUCK to ALL !!!!
 
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BILLS VS BROWNS
MORTGAGE INVESTMENT :moneyeyes:


Current forecast has the heavy snow moving north OUT of Orchard Park ( Highmark stadium) by FRIDAY early afternoon. ...

Game time should be partly sunny , 25-29 degrees ...Light normal wind gusts under 20 Mph ...Only a 12-18 % chance of passing light snow showers during the game....

Of course Lake Effect weather is not easy to predict , especially with the lake being unseasonably warm over 52 degrees.

Tons of local media ,and fan pressure on the BILLS offense to score points right now ( only 12 combined total points in the last 6 quarters of 2nd half football )....



BILLS OVER 25.5 -104
6 UNITS ( $1200)
 
BILLS VS BROWNS
MORTGAGE INVESTMENT :moneyeyes:


Current forecast has the heavy snow moving north OUT of Orchard Park ( Highmark stadium) by FRIDAY early afternoon. ...

Game time should be partly sunny , 25-29 degrees ...Light normal wind gusts under 20 Mph ...Only a 12-18 % chance of passing light snow showers during the game....

Of course Lake Effect weather is not easy to predict , especially with the lake being unseasonably warm over 52 degrees.

Tons of local media ,and fan pressure on the BILLS offense to score points right now ( only 12 combined total points in the last 6 quarters of 2nd half football )....



BILLS OVER 25.5 -104
6 UNITS ( $1200)
Love the bet. Riding with you. Good luck brother!
 
BILLS VS BROWNS
MORTGAGE INVESTMENT :moneyeyes:


Current forecast has the heavy snow moving north OUT of Orchard Park ( Highmark stadium) by FRIDAY early afternoon. ...

Game time should be partly sunny , 25-29 degrees ...Light normal wind gusts under 20 Mph ...Only a 12-18 % chance of passing light snow showers during the game....

Of course Lake Effect weather is not easy to predict , especially with the lake being unseasonably warm over 52 degrees.

Tons of local media ,and fan pressure on the BILLS offense to score points right now ( only 12 combined total points in the last 6 quarters of 2nd half football )....



BILLS OVER 25.5 -104
6 UNITS ( $1200)
Are you thinking this total grows as the weather forecast becomes clearer?
 
Point Spread Ratings are for WEEK 11 ONLY , NOT for future or hypothetical match ups

( # has to be 3.22+ points off the current line to be a suggested wager) ..

PACKERS 93.41 HF +3.38. PSR -3.57

TITANS 93.22.

NO ATS PLAY IS SUGGESTED


Might be a good spot for the more desperate team...Packers should be flying high after the comeback win over the Cowboys ...I'll pass betting ATS ...CHRISTIAN WATSON OVER 38.5 Recieving is worth some smaller Parlays ..
DISCIPLINE for me tonight, just getting the Degen fix for a little more than half a unit



These Parlays are NOT standard suggested wagers ..

Parlay +575
0.2 UNITS $40/$230
WATSON over 38.5 +
TD +
PACKERS WIN


PARLAY +370
0.3 UNITS $60/$222
WATSON OVER 38.5

PACKERS FG OVER 1.5+ PACKERS WIN



PARLAY +2200
0.1 U ...$20/$440
WATSON OVER 38.5

2TD +




MADDEN 23 SIMULATIONS

Result must occur in at least 13 out of 20 Sims for it to he a suggested wager

PACKERS 3.5 TITANS

PACKERS COVER IN 10 OF 20 , Also win by 3 or less twice..

NO ATS WAGER is SUGGESTED ..

Watson props also did well in Sims going over 44+ yards in 12 of 20 games .. Scored in 7 games ( 9TD total ) ...The game coincidentally seems to elevate players production the following week after a breakout performance on the field....
 
BILLS VS BROWNS
MORTGAGE INVESTMENT :moneyeyes:


Current forecast has the heavy snow moving north OUT of Orchard Park ( Highmark stadium) by FRIDAY early afternoon. ...

Game time should be partly sunny , 25-29 degrees ...Light normal wind gusts under 20 Mph ...Only a 12-18 % chance of passing light snow showers during the game....

Of course Lake Effect weather is not easy to predict , especially with the lake being unseasonably warm over 52 degrees.

Tons of local media ,and fan pressure on the BILLS offense to score points right now ( only 12 combined total points in the last 6 quarters of 2nd half football )....



BILLS OVER 25.5 -104
6 UNITS ( $1200)
I have 29.5 as the Bills TT
 
Phew that was a lucky cash ..Had to wait until the 2nd last Packers snap to get the OVER 38.5 ...Nice 19 yard catch on 3rd and 20 LOL...

Of course Watson scores 2 TD sitting on my fantasy bench..

PARLAY +2200
0.1 U ...$20/$440:cheers6:
WATSON OVER 38.5
2TD +


Lost the 2 other Parlays though -100

+1.7 Units ( $340) :moneyeyes: on the night
 
We're rolling out the red carpet here in SE Michigan for your Bills the next 7 days.

Enjoy!

Go Watkins
Appreciate it Brother

My son wants to get out of dodge tomorrow early before the heavier snow reaches where we live
..Might be taking a guys trip to Motown... 50/50 ....

Very cool that they play there twice in 5 days ...It's like the founder Ralph Wilson is smiling down from heaven ( our original jerseys were Lions colors with numbers on the helmet bc he loved the Lions ) ..
 
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Appreciate it Brother

My son wants to get out of dodge tomorrow early before the heavier snow reaches where we live
..Might be taking a guys trip to Motown... 50/50 ....

Very cool that they play there twice in 5 days ...It's like the founder Ralph Wilson is smiling down from heaven ( our original jerseys were Lions colors with numbers on the helmet bc he loved the Lions ) ..
Oh man, love it. Didn't know that about Mr Wilson.
 
Oh man, love it. Didn't know that about Mr Wilson.
Wilson was a minority owner of the Lions in the 1950's -- before Ford owned the team -- Then he purchased a team in the upstart AFL ( BILLS ) ..

Wilson was born in Columbus, Ohio, but went to high school in Detroit and it was there, watching the Lions, where he fell in love with football.

"I went to my first pro football game in 1935. The Lions were playing the Bears," Wilson said at his Hall of Fame induction speech.
 
Wilson was a minority owner of the Lions in the 1950's -- before Ford owned the team -- Then he purchased a team in the upstart AFL ( BILLS ) ..

Wilson was born in Columbus, Ohio, but went to high school in Detroit and it was there, watching the Lions, where he fell in love with football.

"I went to my first pro football game in 1935. The Lions were playing the Bears," Wilson said at his Hall of Fame induction speech.
Okay, I did know that, had just forgotten.
 
Running out of time this weekend ....
These greedy derps that run the soccer complex refuse to cancel my kidd games today and tomorrow morning ( Northtowns has much less snow , but still a pain in arse getting everyone there)
 
Point Spread ratings

RAVENS 97.63. Hf +2.63. PSR -13.82

PANTHERS. 86.44

NO ATS PLAY IS SUGGESTED ...

Flu is spreading like wildfire around the NFL ...6 Bills had it this week , sounds like Lamar will play but has been sick ...Pass for me ...






Madden 23 Simulations

RAVENS 13. PANTHERS

RAVENS cover 14 out of 20

RAVENS are a suggested wager



Wow the game strongly dislikes Mayfield ...Dude had some of the worst statistical games of all the sims this season ..
 
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FALCONS 3 BEARS

NO ATS play is suggested

Point Spread ratings have FALCONS -1.88 and the MADDEN SIMS have the BEARS covering 11 of 20 .

If Kmet plays he's likely an insta bet on yards over
 
GIANTS 3. LIONS

POINT SPREAD RATINGS do NOT suggest a play with GIANTS -4.22

MADDEN 23 SIMS SUGGEST a play on GIANTS -3 as they cover In 13 of 20...
 
PATRIOTS. 3.5. JETS


PSR have NO PLAY SUGGESTED with PATRIOTS -4.12

MADDEN 23 SIMS has NO PLAY SUGGESTED with PATRIOTS covering in 10 of 20 ..

I do like the Patriots to win straight up and may use them in a ML Parlay....Stevenson TD props might also be in play .
 
SAINTS. 2.5. RAMS

PSR has no Suggested play ..Saints -0.98

Madden 23 Sims have no suggested play with RAMS covering 11 of 20 ..

Don't plan on watching a second of this game until next week on all 22 .
 
EAGLES. 7. * COLTS

PSR DO NOT suggest a wager with EAGLES -5.99

MADDEN 23 SIMS SUGGEST a wager on COLTS +7 as they cover 13 of 20 ...

Tough to bet on either side imo , might just on some Campbell rec props ...
 
COMMIES. 3.5. *TEXANS

PSR do NOT suggest a wager as it has the COMMIES -3.77

MADDEN 23 SIMS Do not suggest a play as the COMMIES only cover 11 or 20 ...


I might take Henickie rushing props over if the number is 11.5 or less..
 
BRONCOS. 3. RAIDERS


PSR have NO suggested play with BRONCOS -3.44.

MADDEN 23 SIMS SUGGEST BRONCOS as they cover in 14 of 20 ...


Another game I have zero interest in ...Pass..
 
BENGALS. 4. *STEELERS

PSR suggest a play on STEELERS +4 as it has STEELERS -0.14

Madden 23 Sims suggest a play on STEELERS as they cover in 14 of 20 , including 10 out right wins ....



Steelers team total over will likely be my 1 unit wager..
 
Switching gears here to FIFA 23 PREDICTIONS for the WORLD CUP

GROUP A


Simulated the tournament 50 times and here is what the results were for this Group

Winner
NETHERLANDS 38. (76%) -317
SENEGAL. 7 (14%) +614
ECUADOR 5. (10%) +900
QATAR. 0. (0)

ADVANCED
NETHERLANDS 47. (94%)
SENEGAL. 28. (56%)
ECUADOR. 22. (44%)
QATAR. 3. (6%)




My own personal thoughts

The Sadio Mane injury for Senegal is a massive blow...Before his injury I was very close to hammering them to advance , and some smaller money on them to win the group ....Now both bets are a pass ...

Be very careful with this group there is already news of some shady dealings were ECUADOR'S players would be paid to throw the game vs host QATAR ...

I'll pass on all GROUP A futures other than all 8 group winner long shot parlays...At the current price of -215 I'll be Wheeling Netherlands in most of those parlays .
 
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COWBOYS 1.5. *VIKINGS


PSR do NOT suggest a wager as it has VIKINGS -0.27.

MADDEN 23 SIMULATIONS. SUGGEST the COWBOYS as they cover 13 of 20 ...


Hats off to the VIKINGS for beating the BILLS ...Should never even have been close with MCDUMMY blowing a 17 point 2nd half lead ...This game will probably see a ton of action from the public on both sides....Might just take a flier on long shot OT wager ...
 
BILLS. 7.5 BROWNS

PSR has NO SUGGESTED play on this game with the BILLS -10.56...If the line drops to-7 it will be a suggested wager ...


MADDEN 23 SIMS ...Impossible to do in Ford field ....


I'm guessing there is a 60% shot the BILLS can fly out of here with there currently being a driving ban in the city and the Airport closed ....
Wouldn't be suprised if they have to bus it through Ontario to Detroit ....Wonder if everyone has passport and or enhanced license with no felonies lol ....

The BILLS offense is taylor made for a dome ....Oddsmakers tend to agree this should be a track meet as the total is now a whopping 50 ....




BILLS OVER 29.5 -107
. 1.6 UNITS ( $320 )


Smaller action
GABE DAVIS 2 TD + BILLS OVER 29.5. +1500. $20
 
College football

Been having decent success at low amount wagers on Saturdays the last 3 weeks

All plays for 0.3 units ($60 ) unless noted

ILLINOIS +18
TCU -2.5
WEST VA +8.5
KANSAS +9
MIDDLE TENNESSEE +6
MINNESOTA -2.5
OVER 76.5 USC AT UCLA
OVER 60.5 UTAH AT OREGON
SAN JOSE ST. ML +100
 
Week 11
( Still have to post the primtime games )




Madden 23 simulation suggested wagers

(34-21-2 ATS )

RAVENS -13
GIANTS . -3
COLTS. +7
COWBOYS -1.5
BRONCOS -3
STEELERS +4






My personal POINT SPREAD RATINGS (20-12-2 )

Strongly believe week 11 is easily the worst ATS investing slate of the season so far...

STEELERS . +4.
(One play suggested and I don't even like it that much , their TT OVER looks better IMO)
 
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Long shot Group Winner Parlays ....

The plan here is to get a ton of the Degen action I crave without much risk...
Every Parlay will pay at least $10K...
Less than. 0.75 Units($150) total spent below ...

These are my HOMER USA parlay wheels ...I'll probably only use them in a couple more cheap wheels because England is likely a deserving chalk in Group B ...

Will have more tickets with England / and or NO GROUP B Winner selected to follow
..

Ticket 1
+24397.
A NETHERLANDS / B USA / C ARGENTINA / D FRANCE / E GERMANY / F BELGIUM / G BRASIL / H URUGUAY


TICKET 2
+48152
A NETHERLANDS / B USA / C ARGENTINA / D FRANCE / E GERMANY/ F CROATIA / G BRASIL / H URUGUAY


TICKET 3
+65139
A NETHERLANDS / B USA / C MEXICO / D FRANCE / E SPAIN / F BELGIUM / G BRASIL / H PORTUGAL


TICKET. 4.
+62071
A NETHERLANDS / B USA / C ARGENTINA / D DENMARK / E GERMANY / F CROATIA / G BRASIL / H PORTUGAL.



TICKET 5.
+ 73589
A NETHERLANDS / B USA / C POLAND / D FRANCE / E GERMANY / F BELGIUM / G BRASIL / H PORTUGAL



TICKET 6
+95722.
SENEGAL / USA / ARGENTINA/ FRANCE / GERMANY / BELGIUM / BRASIL / URUGUAY



TICKET 7.
+106756
NETHERLANDS/ USA/ MEXICO/ FRANCE/ SPAIN / BELGIUM/ BRASIL/ URUGUAY


TICKET 8
+120598
NETHERLANDS/ USA/ MEXICO/ FRANCE/ GERMANY / BELGIUM/ BRASIL/ URUGUAY




TICKET 9. ( 7 selections)
+147508.
SENEGAL/ USA/ DENMARK/ GERMANY / BELGIUM/ BRASIL/ URUGUAY
 
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NFL Week 11 investments

44-35-2 YTD Standard Wagers
+$335 overall



BILLS OVER 29.5
1.6 UNITS ($320)

KMET. OVER 27.5 REC Y
1.25. ($250)

DRAKE OVER 67.5 RUSH Y
1.25 U

STEVENSON OVER 22.5 REC Y
1.25 U

HOCKENSON OVER 44.5 REC Y
1.5 UNITS

TONEY OVER 50.5 REC Y
2 UNITS ($400)









Smaller ( less than a Unit)
Counts in money won / lost above, but not YTD record

Parlay +1500
$20/$300
BILLS OV 29.5
G DAVIS 2+ TD




 
One of my favorite bets of the week ( Sunday night late pick 4 )

Del Mar

50 cent
Race 6. 5,6,7,2
Race 7. 3,7,4,6,10,5,1,2
Race 8. 2
Race 9. 9,10,7
Cost $48


25 cent
Race 6. 5,6,7
Race 7. 3,7,4,6,10
Race 8. 7,1
Race 9. 9,10,7
Cost $22.50
 
Switching gears here to FIFA 23 PREDICTIONS for the WORLD CUP

GROUP A


Simulated the tournament 50 times and here is what the results were for this Group

Winner
NETHERLANDS 38. (76%) -317
SENEGAL. 7 (14%) +614
ECUADOR 5. (10%) +900
QATAR. 0. (0)

ADVANCED
NETHERLANDS 47. (94%)
SENEGAL. 28. (56%)
ECUADOR. 22. (44%)
QATAR. 3. (6%)




My own personal thoughts

The Sadio Mane injury for Senegal is a massive blow...Before his injury I was very close to hammering them to advance , and some smaller money on them to win the group ....Now both bets are a pass ...

Be very careful with this group there is already news of some shady dealings were ECUADOR'S players would be paid to throw the game vs host QATAR ...

I'll pass on all GROUP A futures other than all 8 group winner long shot parlays...At the current price of -215 I'll be Wheeling Netherlands in most of those parlays .
Will you be simulating the other groups as well?
 
WORLD CUP



GROUP B

FIFA 23 SIMULATIONS (50)


Winner

ENGLAND 39. 78%

USA. 8. 16%

WALES 3. 6%

IRAN. 0.



ADVANCE

ENGLAND 47. . 94%
USA. 28. 56%
WALES. 22. 44%
IRAN. 3. 6%


Thought IRAN might qualify







My personal thoughts:

Trying my hardest not be a blind homer that hammers the USA to advance ...Betting with your heart can be a painful way to lose money ..Going with some discipline wheeling them in long shot parlays for low risk..

USA , WALES and IRAN could all be very close on the pitch...My personal numbers have draws between the 3 possible 30-36% of the time... insta betting draws in this group could be profitable...

Also wouldn't be a shock if Emgland poops the bed in at least one match.....

..
 
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WORLD CUP



GROUP B

FIFA 23 SIMULATIONS (50)


Winner

ENGLAND 39. 78%

USA. 8. 16%

WALES 3. 6%

IRAN. 0.



ADVANCE

ENGLAND 47. . 94%
USA. 28. 56%
WALES. 22. 44%
IRAN. 3. 6%


Thought IRAN might qualify







My personal thoughts:

Trying my hardest not be a blind homer that hammers the USA to advance ...Betting with your heart can be a painful way to lose money ..Going with some discipline wheeling them in long shot parlays for low risk..

USA , WALES and IRAN could all be very close on the pitch...My personal numbers have draws between the 3 possible 30-36% of the time... insta betting draws in this group could be profitable...

Also wouldn't be a shock if Emgland poops the bed in at least one match.....

..

Love these sims Du4. Keep emcoming

I was shocked there was no fuckery other than the weird offsides on that first goal
 
Will you be simulating the other groups as well?
Really appreciate you reading the FIFA 23 results ...
Finally finished all 50 Simulations Thursday night.....

Sorry for the slow roll Brother ...Should have them all posted by tomorrow...

Not sure how they'll pan out predicting results ...
Hoping they do very well , but it would also be profitable if they're horrible / FADE worthy ...

Best of luck on the World Cup
Sweep your slate $$$
 
Really appreciate you reading the FIFA 23 results ...
Finally finished all 50 Simulations Thursday night.....

Sorry for the slow roll Brother ...Should have them all posted by tomorrow...

Not sure how they'll pan out predicting results ...
Hoping they do very well , but it would also be profitable if they're horrible / FADE worthy ...

Best of luck on the World Cup
Sweep your slate $$$
I think it’s just good info, interesting for sure.
 
Love these sims Du4. Keep emcoming

I was shocked there was no fuckery other than the weird offsides on that first goal
I was expecting some home cooking / shady officiating....
Calling that 1st goal back was a joke from what I saw ...

Qatar looked shook on the big stage ...Thought they'd play much better after how they looked in the Tournament vs CONCACAF countries ...


Thanks again for reading and posting!!!
 
WORLD CUP

GROUP C

MADDEN 23 SIMULATIONS (50)


Group Winner

ARGENTINA 42 84%

MEXICO. 5. 10%

POLAND 3 6%

SAUDI ARABIA 0.



ADVANCE

ARGENTINA. 47. 94%
MEXICO. 26 54%
POLAND 24. 48%
SAUDI ARABIA 3. 6%








My Personal thoughts:

Would love to see Mexico make a run but final 16 might be EL TRI ceiling ( if they get there ?)


Both of my kids predict Argentina wins the WC ...
I'm not sold on them getting past the final 8 ...
My personal predictions has them losing to France in the semifinals or the round of 16 ..
 
Adding some early morning action

Don't like this game much so it will.NOT be a standard wager ( 1 unit )


England to win either 2-1/3-1/4-1 +425 ( Bet MGM)

0.125 units / $25 to win $106.25

Tempted to bet the draw as well but the +425 draws me in small for cheap action



This is a smaller wager that does not count in overall record but does count in world cup total bankroll
 
Adding

USA to qualify for round of 16 +100

2.1 units $420

Originally wanted to put close to 6 units on this one but discipline is the key ( I guess )
 
Long shot Group Winner Parlays ....

The plan here is to get a ton of the Degen action I crave without much risk...
Every Parlay will pay at least $10K...
Less than. 0.75 Units($150) total spent below ...

These are my HOMER USA parlay wheels ...I'll probably only use them in a couple more cheap wheels because England is likely a deserving chalk in Group B ...

Will have more tickets with England / and or NO GROUP B Winner selected to follow
..

Ticket 1
+24397.
A NETHERLANDS / B USA / C ARGENTINA / D FRANCE / E GERMANY / F BELGIUM / G BRASIL / H URUGUAY


TICKET 2
+48152
A NETHERLANDS / B USA / C ARGENTINA / D FRANCE / E GERMANY/ F CROATIA / G BRASIL / H URUGUAY


TICKET 3
+65139
A NETHERLANDS / B USA / C MEXICO / D FRANCE / E SPAIN / F BELGIUM / G BRASIL / H PORTUGAL


TICKET. 4.
+62071
A NETHERLANDS / B USA / C ARGENTINA / D DENMARK / E GERMANY / F CROATIA / G BRASIL / H PORTUGAL.



TICKET 5.
+ 73589
A NETHERLANDS / B USA / C POLAND / D FRANCE / E GERMANY / F BELGIUM / G BRASIL / H PORTUGAL



TICKET 6
+95722.
SENEGAL / USA / ARGENTINA/ FRANCE / GERMANY / BELGIUM / BRASIL / URUGUAY



TICKET 7.
+106756
NETHERLANDS/ USA/ MEXICO/ FRANCE/ SPAIN / BELGIUM/ BRASIL/ URUGUAY


TICKET 8
+120598
NETHERLANDS/ USA/ MEXICO/ FRANCE/ GERMANY / BELGIUM/ BRASIL/ URUGUAY




TICKET 9. ( 7 selections)
+147508.
SENEGAL/ USA/ DENMARK/ GERMANY / BELGIUM/ BRASIL/ URUGUAY


Ticket 10
+33096
NETHERLANDS/ USA / ARGENTINA/FRANCE/SPAIN/CROATIA/BRASIL/PORTUGAL


TICKET 11
+40738
NETHERLANDS/ ARGENTINA/DENMARK/GERMANY/BELGIUM/BRASIL/PORTUGAL
 
CLASS AA PLAYOFF
BUFFALO AT ROCHESTER
( SECTION 6 AT 5)

BENNETT 10 at MCQUAID

Excellent spot for my BENN HIGH TIGERS who stayed Sunday in Rochester hotel preparing for tonight's 6pm kickoff ...Perfect planning getting out of Snow crushed Buffalo a day early ....

BENNETT -10 --110
$4620 to win $4,200. 21 Units
 
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Where can you place nearly 5 dimes worth of action on High School ball? I rarely see it offered but I'm strictly using DK.
 
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