Thanks D-Woww. Yes last week was atrocious. Thanks for the support. & I agree w/ the SJSU game last week....I feel like the game went just how I planned w/ UNLV coming out flat, however, SJSU let them back into the game b/c their defense just isnt that good at all this year. I'll explain more coming up:
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Nice way to start the week last night. I'll take it. I've got nothing for Wednesday. Still debating on Thursday. Right now as its looking, I might be putting 1/5 a unit on OU ML just for s*its & giggles.[/FONT]
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[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]San Diego St Aztecs (+7)[/FONT]
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SDSU is one of the top schools that I follow, & I've had a good read on them the last few weeks for sure. SJSU is a team I feel like I have a fantastic read on, as I have gone 5-0 on them w/ leans &/or bets their last 5 games, including MASTERing their games the last 2 weeks. [/FONT]
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Last week when I took SJSU it went exactly how i figured it would w/ UNLV being flat & in the let down spot. It did, however, get a little stressful at the end b/c SJSU let them back in the game. Sparty looked amazing early on in the game getting up 24-3, but once UNLV woke up, SJSU came back to life & showed why they aren't the team they were last year. Last weeks game actually helps make this bet this week easier for me though....b/c Sparty looked so good early on & the defense looked stellar, but then they gave up yards & made mistakes in the 2nd half. I'm not buying that SJSU has a good run defense just b/c they held UNLV's Cornett to 24 yds rushing. UNLV got down early & they were in a trap spot. SJSU's run game looked fantastic last week, as I said it had been coming along. David Fales looked human, but he is still a top QB.[/FONT]
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I said a few weeks ago that SDSU was a team that plays up or down to their opponents. That was clear early in the year. In a classic "bad spot" game last week against UNM, they actually came out & took care of business. The final score was a lot closer than the game was. The Aztecs are 4-4, but could very easily be 6-2 w/ wins over Oregon St & Fresno St...& that's no over exaggeration. [/FONT]
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Under Rocky Long, the defense is typically very good against the run, & that's no exception this year....so I don't think the trio of freshmen backs for the Spartans are going to have very much success against the Aztecs. SDSU is bigger & more physical than what Sparty is used to. [/FONT]
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A HUGE factor that I think helps the Aztecs this game is that they have already faced Sean Mannion & Derek Carr this year (& Eastern Illinois who's QB is a stud & will go to the NFL, & their HC coached under Art Briles & runs his system there). I said I thought the Aztecs would beat Fresno, & they probably should have, & a big reason was bc they had seen 2 really good QB's that are similar to Carr already. So now they get David Fales, who is a stud, but they have already seen 3 QB's like him, & should be well prepared for him. The pass defense has gotten much better as the year has gone on...which I expected it to b/c they were adapting over losing one of the best CB's to ever go to SDSU.[/FONT]
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The Aztecs running game is off and rolling here of late. Muema is back to his old form & is healthy now. Pumphrey is still a very good 2 back also. Quinn Kaehler continues to be very efficient, & this offense just seems to get better every week, especially with the emergence of WR Ruffin. They have limited TO's the last 3-4 games, & they are completing over 50% on 3rd downs the last 3-4 games. [/FONT]
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SDSU will be the most physical team SJSU has faced since probably Minnesota, or maybe Utah St. SJSU doesn't do very well against phyical teams, as the 3 most physical teams they have played have all beaten them handlily. SDSU red zone defense scares me, as does TO's...but those are somewhat unknowns. I think the Aztecs should be much more physical than the Spartans, & they should be able to run the ball on them to set up play action.....as SJSU still has a real bad run defense. I also believe that the Spartans fresh RB's will hit a brick wall this week against a hard hitting defense designed to stop the run, & the Aztec defense's experience with very good QB's they have seen this year should help limit Fales, although there will be no way to stop him.[/FONT]
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I've got 1 unit on SDSU +7 right now, but I will most likely come back & put more down. This line should be closer to +3 IMO, if that. This may be a rare week where I MASTER SDSU +7 & even throw a whole unit on the ML b/c I think the Aztecs win straight up.[/FONT]
check ya laatttteeerrr................
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Lean Add:[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]UCLA/Zona O 56[/FONT]
