OU Sooners (-5.5) ----- HAMMERED
Obviously want to share additional thoughts added to what I said a few posts above. I thought the line would go down, but looks like that wont happen. Either way, I'm fine with it. So let me dive in:
OU Defense vs Baylor Offense:
The machine that is the Baylor offense has been slowing but surely building it's way up into CFB for a few years now. But last year was obviously when it took off....so I'll start there. Looking at last year, no team had any answer for slowing it down (KSU had some success, b/c that's what Bill Synder does) until early November. That game would be OU/Baylor of last year. You can look at the final score & tell me I'm foolish for thinking that, but final scores can be misleading. OU near completely shut down Baylor's offense for the whole first half, until Blake Bell threw an INT w/ 50seconds left in 1st half inside OU's own 30 yd line....that led to the wheels falling off for OU. Basically, OU shut Baylor down for 1 half, then the defense caved in b/c of the inability and absence of OU's offense leading to the ass whipping that occurred. The success OU had on defense, which has become a blueprint in ways, was that they installed a 3-3-5 Defense for the game & left Petty & the Bears puzzled. The basis behind this is that it gives much flexibility to help counter the wide splits Baylor takes. It gives the defense the ability to have 1, or even 2 deep safeties to help when Baylor runs their seem patterns, especially over the middle. It gives more DB's to cover the extra space. It also gives the ability to have enough bodies up in the box to limit Baylor's run game, especially up the middle. OU was even able to run this effectively w/o their best Nose Tackle on the team (Jordan Phillips), who will be back this game. So after OU had the success in the 1st half of this game, we have seen other teams add it to their arsenal.....Okie St used it when they beat the tar out of Baylor last year. The main difference for OSU is that their offense was able to move the ball & sustain a rhythm, giving their defense plenty of rest & keeping Petty off the field. Texas last year used it against them as well, in a game where it was 3-3 at half, before Texas' defense wore down (much like OU's) & Baylor was able to light it up in the 2nd half. This year we have seen Texas use the 3-3-5 against Baylor, yet again Baylor's offense was held scoreless in the 1st half before Texas' defense wore down in the 2nd half. And of course, West Virginia used it as well. WVU new DC Gipson has the 3-3-5 as his base defense, and it gave Baylor all kinds of trouble. WVU was even able to add numerous exotic blitzes to the package, leaving Petty confused & pressured all game long. I fully expect for OU to go back to the 3-3-5 defense for this game, & find ways to bring pressure based off of what WVU was able to do to Petty & the offense a few weeks ago. This defense will give Striker the ability to be closer to the action, as opposed to using OU's 3-4 where he has to be stretched out to help cover WR's or other split out players. The key for OU here is do they have the cover DB's to run it to it's full ability. They have the talent, but it's a question as to if they will show up on the field. OU's coverage has been suspect, but with them getting an extra DB on the field it should help, & should give OU the ability to bring more pressures at different positions on Petty. Last note: Baylor has lost it's whole right side of the OL, & I fully expect OU to exploit that come Saturday
OU's Offense vs Baylor's Defense:
Baylor's defense completely dominated OU's offense last year. The important factor to keep in mind here is that offense was completely different from what OU is running currently. It was more of a pocket passer w/ Blake Bell at QB (who is not a good QB at all) vs this year where they have Trevor Knight. OU has been their own worst enemy this year.....they have now lost 2 games, & I fully believe a large part of that was their stubbornness to not run Knight. Knight is not a great QB, but he is a good duel threat guy. OU did not want him to get hurt so they didn't run him much, & now that there are 2 losses it seems obvious that they are OK w/ letting the chains off him & letting him run. So, OU will have an extra dimension here in this game, and while I put zero stock into last week vs Iowa St, I do like the sets I saw & it seemed like a clear coaching sign that they wanted to make sure everything was ironed out before this Baylor game. Against KSU, OU was without their FB Ripkowski & TE Blake Bell, and it hurt the run game dramatically in the 4th qtr. This week they should have RB Keith Ford back, who is their best all-around RB, to go along w/ power man Perine & speedster Alex Ross. Ross has become a much better runner the last couple weeks, so they should have 3 reliable RB's. Last week they showed a lot of pistol formations, & that could give Baylor (or any defense) troubles. They have 3 RB's plus Blake Bell & Ripkowski, so there is a wide level of options to go along w/ a running QB. Biggest question is the WR position for OU's offense....and that I have no solid opinion about. I do believe that Baylor's defense is not as good as it was last year. Their DL is very, very good....however, I do not worry much about Shawk Oakman b/c while he will get his, he is also going against OU's strength, which is 2 OT's that will both be playing in the NFL next year. I have much more worries about the interior line.....Baylor's Billings & Blackshear are beast, & OU's interior OL has proven to be shakey. They will need a big day from Center Darlington who has been inconsistent at times this year. While OU's WR's are a question mark, they are also going against Baylor's DB's, who I believe are the question mark....so wash that out. If OU can get the ground game going, then I am certain they will find holes in the secondary of Baylor, & will be able to have much success sneaking players into the deep middle of the field. Last note: Okie St last year used the same 3-back pistol formation that OU has been showing the last couple weeks, and Baylor had no answer for it.
So this is legit HUGE revenge for OU and Stoops still has a tremendous home record (although it hasn't been near dominate the last couple years). And the fact that Baylor still hasn't proven they can play well on the road in a big game.....& the fact that they are 0-23 under Briles road games against ranked foes.
If this was a night game I would predict OU to win by 20+ points. But it's a rooster kick, & I will still call for OU to win by 10+ points.
