TNF: Packers
I don’t think that Seattle should be favored. Seattle’s only wins have come against losing teams. They beat Dallas, which had been abysmal on the road, the Lions, and pitiful Arizona and Oakland. Nevertheless, oddsmakers are asking Seattle to cover a three-point spread against the Packers.
What impresses me most about Green Bay is actually its defense, which has stepped up against stronger competition. Lately, it held the Rams to a yard below its season average in terms of YPC. Stopping the run is crucial against Seattle, which runs the ball more than any other team.
Green Bay’s offense had been ridden by injury-issues and question marks at running back. Aaron Jones was phenomenal last week, rushing for 145 yards on 15 carries against Miami. He’ll have another great performance against Seattle’s 29th-ranked run defense in terms of opposing YPC. The receivers had been injured. While Devante Adams is the 10th-best receivers in terms of yards, Marquez Valdes-Scantling has stepped up with two 100-yard performances in his past four games. Tight end Jimmy Graham is a reliable target and Randall Cobb is listed as ‚questionable‘ for this game.
SNF: Bears
In a game where points will be hard to come by, I look for turnovers to make the difference. The Bears rank nine spots better than Minnesota in avoiding gameaways. In their last three games, they’ve averaged only 0.3 giveaways per game, one lower than Minnesota. The key to this improvement has been the maturation of second-year quarterback Mitch Trubisky. Trubisky had thrown six picks in his first six games, but only one in his last three combined. When teams avoid turnovers, they can sustain drives, wear out the defense, and score more points.
Chicago is also better at forcing turnovers. It ranks first in the category whereas Minnesota ranks 10th. Chicago gets turnovers despite the injury to Khalil Mack, who played through injury in two games and sat out two games. The superstar linebacker is healthy. He achieved two sacks last Sunday against Detroit.
The Bears are 5-1 ATS in their last six home games and 8-2 ATS in their last 10 home games against Minnesota. Minnesota comes in with a number of potential injuries, such as to receiver Stefon Diggs, without whom Kirk Cousins produced his lowest yardage output in his last game.
PACKERS: Seahawks are favored, but have only beat losing teams. Packers D has stepped up lately against strong competition and the offense found stability in receiving corps after injuries.
FALCONS: Falcons return home where their offense works so much better. Cowboys rank 27th in passing defense, which Atlanta’s plethora of weapons in pass attack will take advantage. Cowboys won’’t keep up.
LIONS: Detroit has one of most pass-heavy offenses. Carolina’s pass defense is very vulnerable, especially on the road, where their opposing average passer rating is 125.5. Panthers 1-6 SU L7 on the road.
COLTS: Fading Tennessee off a big home win that was emotional for many of its players/coaches. Titans rely heavily on run game, but Colts rank 7th in opp. YPC. Titans are 1-6 ATS L7 and 1-9 L10 SU in Indy.
GIANTS: Saquon should have a bounce-back performance against poor Tampa tackling. Despite public perception, Eli and Odell have been clicking lately. Giants are 5-1 SU and ATS L6 against Tampa Bay.
TEXANS: Texans run more than almost any other team. But the Redskins are poor against the run, allowing 4.7 YPC at home. Skins have been unreliable at home, whereas Texans have won three straight away.
JAGUARS: Despite the struggles, Jags showed good things on offense last week and played well in London the week before. Jags match up well with Pitt, scoring over 30 and beating them twice as underdogs last year.
BENGALS: Bengals will get a new defensive coordinator. The defense is much better than it’s been showing lately. Against division rival, with desperation, and hopefully healthier, it will show up to play.
CARDINALS: Fading Oakland at all costs, even against Arizona. Cardinals at least look competitive. They beat San Francisco then took the monster Chiefs into the fourth quarter. Raiders have thrown the towel.
BRONCOS: Broncos have lately found success on the road and they come off a bye week. They’re run-first and the Chargers rank 20th in opposing YPC. Lindsay is an underrated running back, Freeman will return.
EAGLES: Don’t let your recency bias guide you. Eagles back Josh Adams is averaging 5.7 YPC. Eagles need to feed him the ball more. Plus Eagles bring a solid pass attack and a respectable D. They’ll hang.
BEARS: In a game with few points, turnovers really matter and da Bears are better at forcing them, especially with a healthy Mack. Cousins will struggle against strong D especially if Diggs is still out.
CHIEFS: Rams’ defense has turned out to be a total dud, allowing over 30 points in past two games. LB’s Ford and Houston are back for improved Chiefs D that has a solid pass rush, especially with the lead.
I don’t think that Seattle should be favored. Seattle’s only wins have come against losing teams. They beat Dallas, which had been abysmal on the road, the Lions, and pitiful Arizona and Oakland. Nevertheless, oddsmakers are asking Seattle to cover a three-point spread against the Packers.
What impresses me most about Green Bay is actually its defense, which has stepped up against stronger competition. Lately, it held the Rams to a yard below its season average in terms of YPC. Stopping the run is crucial against Seattle, which runs the ball more than any other team.
Green Bay’s offense had been ridden by injury-issues and question marks at running back. Aaron Jones was phenomenal last week, rushing for 145 yards on 15 carries against Miami. He’ll have another great performance against Seattle’s 29th-ranked run defense in terms of opposing YPC. The receivers had been injured. While Devante Adams is the 10th-best receivers in terms of yards, Marquez Valdes-Scantling has stepped up with two 100-yard performances in his past four games. Tight end Jimmy Graham is a reliable target and Randall Cobb is listed as ‚questionable‘ for this game.
SNF: Bears
In a game where points will be hard to come by, I look for turnovers to make the difference. The Bears rank nine spots better than Minnesota in avoiding gameaways. In their last three games, they’ve averaged only 0.3 giveaways per game, one lower than Minnesota. The key to this improvement has been the maturation of second-year quarterback Mitch Trubisky. Trubisky had thrown six picks in his first six games, but only one in his last three combined. When teams avoid turnovers, they can sustain drives, wear out the defense, and score more points.
Chicago is also better at forcing turnovers. It ranks first in the category whereas Minnesota ranks 10th. Chicago gets turnovers despite the injury to Khalil Mack, who played through injury in two games and sat out two games. The superstar linebacker is healthy. He achieved two sacks last Sunday against Detroit.
The Bears are 5-1 ATS in their last six home games and 8-2 ATS in their last 10 home games against Minnesota. Minnesota comes in with a number of potential injuries, such as to receiver Stefon Diggs, without whom Kirk Cousins produced his lowest yardage output in his last game.
PACKERS: Seahawks are favored, but have only beat losing teams. Packers D has stepped up lately against strong competition and the offense found stability in receiving corps after injuries.
FALCONS: Falcons return home where their offense works so much better. Cowboys rank 27th in passing defense, which Atlanta’s plethora of weapons in pass attack will take advantage. Cowboys won’’t keep up.
LIONS: Detroit has one of most pass-heavy offenses. Carolina’s pass defense is very vulnerable, especially on the road, where their opposing average passer rating is 125.5. Panthers 1-6 SU L7 on the road.
COLTS: Fading Tennessee off a big home win that was emotional for many of its players/coaches. Titans rely heavily on run game, but Colts rank 7th in opp. YPC. Titans are 1-6 ATS L7 and 1-9 L10 SU in Indy.
GIANTS: Saquon should have a bounce-back performance against poor Tampa tackling. Despite public perception, Eli and Odell have been clicking lately. Giants are 5-1 SU and ATS L6 against Tampa Bay.
TEXANS: Texans run more than almost any other team. But the Redskins are poor against the run, allowing 4.7 YPC at home. Skins have been unreliable at home, whereas Texans have won three straight away.
JAGUARS: Despite the struggles, Jags showed good things on offense last week and played well in London the week before. Jags match up well with Pitt, scoring over 30 and beating them twice as underdogs last year.
BENGALS: Bengals will get a new defensive coordinator. The defense is much better than it’s been showing lately. Against division rival, with desperation, and hopefully healthier, it will show up to play.
CARDINALS: Fading Oakland at all costs, even against Arizona. Cardinals at least look competitive. They beat San Francisco then took the monster Chiefs into the fourth quarter. Raiders have thrown the towel.
BRONCOS: Broncos have lately found success on the road and they come off a bye week. They’re run-first and the Chargers rank 20th in opposing YPC. Lindsay is an underrated running back, Freeman will return.
EAGLES: Don’t let your recency bias guide you. Eagles back Josh Adams is averaging 5.7 YPC. Eagles need to feed him the ball more. Plus Eagles bring a solid pass attack and a respectable D. They’ll hang.
BEARS: In a game with few points, turnovers really matter and da Bears are better at forcing them, especially with a healthy Mack. Cousins will struggle against strong D especially if Diggs is still out.
CHIEFS: Rams’ defense has turned out to be a total dud, allowing over 30 points in past two games. LB’s Ford and Houston are back for improved Chiefs D that has a solid pass rush, especially with the lead.
