Week 11 Discussion Thread

West VA +9???
Would like to get Louisville at +9 or more
Kansas catching more than 3
 
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Interesting spot for Bama. When was the last time they had 2 regular season losses before the Auburn game? How do they respond knowing what they usually play for is gone?
 
Frank Costanza said:
Ole Miss getting 12, at home, with Bama's season done?

Lulz.
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You think bama will just pack it in? I mean we really have no reference point for this under saban do we? I can’t recall last time they played a game that didn’t have playoff implications (for bama, I suppose still might be some outside shot for ol miss). I dunno if I can bet kiffen against bama, saban has straight up owned him and every damn game kiffen seems to do his worst coaching job of the year against them. On top of that he usually inserts foot into mouth before every one of them! Lol. I loved lsu with the points, even said I thought they could win that game. I’m not nearly as excited to back kiffen, with getting less points than a better lsu team just got!!! I’d think bama can slow the old piss run game down and Dart leaves a lot to be desired. I got way more digging to do but that just my initial thoughts bout it, no way can I take less points than I got w better team last week and when the track record for kiffen so awful!
 
I don't think Bama will pack it in. But when you bar is the highest in the sport and now you're looking at something less than a FF appearance, I don't know how motivated you're going to be. Others on this board can perhaps add more perspective and Kiffen may help with that this week.

I think both teams will score quite a bit, Bama more so than Ole Miss but I'll take the 12 in Oxford.
 
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2daBank said:
You think bama will just pack it in? I mean we really have no reference point for this under saban do we? I can’t recall last time they played a game that didn’t have playoff implications (for bama, I suppose still might be some outside shot for ol miss). I dunno if I can bet kiffen against bama, saban has straight up owned him and every damn game kiffen seems to do his worst coaching job of the year against them. On top of that he usually inserts foot into mouth before every one of them! Lol. I loved lsu with the points, even said I thought they could win that game. I’m not nearly as excited to back kiffen, with getting less points than a better lsu team just got!!! I’d think bama can slow the old piss run game down and Dart leaves a lot to be desired. I got way more digging to do but that just my initial thoughts bout it, no way can I take less points than I got w better team last week and when the track record for kiffen so awful!
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Kiffin is 1-1 ATS against Bama. He was down 4 with 7 minutes left in the game in 2020. I get why last year’s game was more memorable, but I think there’s some recency bias. I don’t see an edge fwiw.
 
MAC Standings for division races:
East Division
Ohio 4-1.8006-3.6675-01-30-0W4
Bowling Green 4-1.8005-4.5563-22-20-0W3
Buffalo 4-1.8005-4.5562-13-30-0L1
Miami 2-3.4004-5.4442-22-30-0W1
Kent State 2-3.4003-6.3333-10-50-0L1
Akron 0-5.0001-8.1111-30-50-0L8

West Division
Toledo 4-1.8006-3.6674-02-30-0W1
Ball State 3-2.6005-4.5563-22-20-0W1
Eastern Michigan 2-3.4005-4.5562-33-10-0L1
Central Michigan 2-3.4003-6.3331-32-30-0W1
Western Michigan 2-3.4003-6.3331-32-30-0L1
Northern Illinois 1-4.2002-7.2221-31-40-0L2
 
CPA-hole said:
Interesting spot for Bama. When was the last time they had 2 regular season losses before the Auburn game? How do they respond knowing what they usually play for is gone?
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I’d be shocked if they don’t respond well.
If they don’t the “Saban retire” narrative gets pretty loud I’m sure
 
Coastal has seriously been off the radar for me, didn't realize they're 8-1
 
KJ said:
Coastal has seriously been off the radar for me, didn't realize they're 8-1
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I'd say it has been a weird season for them. Generally they were playing poorly, or not as well as they could've as a favorite earlier in the year, but have been playing much better of late as dogs (won two straight as dogs). The loss to Old Dominion is hard to unsee. Unless that is a total fluke? ODU hasn't come close to being able to replicate that kind of game since and Coastal also hasn't played anywhere near that bad.
 
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Frank Costanza said:
I don't think Bama will pack it in. But when you bar is the highest in the sport and now you're looking at something less than a FF appearance, I don't know how motivated you're going to be. Others on this board can perhaps add more perspective and Kiffen may help with that this week.

I think both teams will score quite a bit, Bama more so than Ole Miss but I'll take the 12 in Oxford.
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I hear ya, I’m certainly not real excited or looking to lay the points either. I would think a modicum of big time pride might drive bama this week but I don’t know for sure how their mindset, practices, motivation be this week. If it was a team/coach I trusted more I’d prob consider being against them but as I said it seems off to me to take less points with ol miss and kiffen than we got with a lsu team I think way better than them.


I’ll Have to go back and look at more recent meetings but I feel somewhat like I did when I expected bama to shut down messy st offense, most likely not to that extent as saban teams has just taken apart the leech air raid, im pretty sure kiffen teams have scored some points but I think kiffen qb a lot worse this year, imo if you slow down the Ol miss run game and make Dart a thrower the Rebs offense will struggle.

Another problem with the over is bama wrs just mot as explosive and I think Saban finally made a huge mistake with one his retread saving a guy career coordinator hires, I’ve always thought Obrien was a total freaking tool and by far the worst of Saban last handful of oc’s imo.
 
I dunno what kind of jungle math they using to hang lsu-3 here? They really putting a huge amount of letdown into this line aimt they? On a neutral field lsu should be damn near -10 imo. How many points we giving arky for home field? Lol. Anything less than -7 is a freaking deal imo. I guess that should worry me cause I got a feeling this lsu bandwagon I been on most the year is gonna fill up fast this week!

Yes this about as square as a square can be but I don’t care. I don’t think one the best coaches in the sport who used to getting his teams back up after big wins is gonna let them have a letdown when the chance to play in the sec championship is in their sites as they control their destiny to do so, and all they gotta do is beat this mediocre arky team! (Maybe they have to beat AM last game of year also but prob not unless ol miss wins out) anyways they will smash A&M so this is the game that all but puts them playing for the SEC and they are gonna let down? I don’t think so! You don’t let down when you have a chance to play for a conf championship and just maybe more!! Brian Kelly no stranger to his team getting big wins and needing to keep their eye on the prize, he too good, this team too good, they not losing to the razorbacks w a banged up kj jafferson, or a healthy kj for that matter!!

We can argue till we blue in the face whether or not lsu will let down or not, I’ve stated my case for why I think it be a mistake to expect that. Maybe I’m wrong, maybe I’m not. So let’s get to the actual matchup on the field.

Last year when arky was a better team and lsu was just playing out the season with a lame duck coach this was a 16-13 game! Arky offense, the one that had a 1st round wr to go with this run game mustered a grand total of 13 1st downs in that game. I think it fair to say lsu d is capable of slowing this offense down. I have no doubt they can limit the arky run game and be all over Jefferson when he looks to pass. Most importantly when arky does get into scoring range they have not been very efficient and lsu d is one the better in the country keeping teams from
scoring tds when they in the red zone.

Conversely arky d has been awful, they allowing 6.4 ypp good for 114th in the country., they 121st getting off the field on 3rd downs. Their run d is bad, theIr base 3-3-5 is generally easy to run on, to make matters worse it not confusing passing games like they have in years past, when teams pass they allowing 8.6 per attempt which once again puts them down there as one the worst teams in the country. Simply put lsu can pretty much do whatever they want and with one the most dynamic playmakers in the country under center I expect they will do both!! Daniels has gotten so much better, every time lsu needed a answer last week I knew they would cause I had total confidence in this kid to get it done. Against a defense that can’t stop a nose bleed I see no reason he won’t do it again!

Maybe I’m crazy, i don’t love being on what I assume be one the squarest sides of the weekend but I see no other way and im
Way too confident in lsu to pass just cause of that. I’m sure arky take some big contrarian money (or line will shoot up), either way I’m fine with it. Lsu-3 a big one for me, you don’t let down when you on the doirstep
Of playing for the sec championship imo. You don’t let down you win this game by at least a td imo.
 
I don’t see any chance in hell clemson comes close to going over their team total which I assume will be around 29ish? Louisville might be the best defense nobody talks about (besides me!), they got a kid who a absolute game wrecker and nfl talent on every level. They giving up less than 20 per game, they 3rd in country in keeping red zone trips out the endzone. They only allow 3.7 per rush so it might be tough for tigers to try and win without a passing game! When they do try to pass look out as ville has one the best sack rates in the nation. Yes tigers d will be the one who gets talked about and yes they are really good, but going down the line of meaningful stats ville d stacks up favorably in most if not all of them, and oh yea, ville also has a qb who been known to be a lot tougher to stop than whomever tigers have playing qb! Think there a good chance clemson let’s one loss turn into 2 here, I mean what’s it matter? They not a playoff team and woulda got killed had they slipped in. Watch out for ville here, I’ll take the +7, dabble the ml, and hit the tigers team total under pretty good.
 
2daBank said:
I dunno what kind of jungle math they using to hang lsu-3 here? They really putting a huge amount of letdown into this line aimt they? On a neutral field lsu should be damn near -10 imo. How many points we giving arky for home field? Lol. Anything less than -7 is a freaking deal imo. I guess that should worry me cause I got a feeling this lsu bandwagon I been on most the year is gonna fill up fast this week!

Yes this about as square as a square can be but I don’t care. I don’t think one the best coaches in the sport who used to getting his teams back up after big wins is gonna let them have a letdown when the chance to play in the sec championship is in their sites as they control their destiny to do so, and all they gotta do is beat this mediocre arky team! (Maybe they have to beat AM last game of year also but prob not unless ol miss wins out) anyways they will smash A&M so this is the game that all but puts them playing for the SEC and they are gonna let down? I don’t think so! You don’t let down when you have a chance to play for a conf championship and just maybe more!! Brian Kelly no stranger to his team getting big wins and needing to keep their eye on the prize, he too good, this team too good, they not losing to the razorbacks w a banged up kj jafferson, or a healthy kj for that matter!!

We can argue till we blue in the face whether or not lsu will let down or not, I’ve stated my case for why I think it be a mistake to expect that. Maybe I’m wrong, maybe I’m not. So let’s get to the actual matchup on the field.

Last year when arky was a better team and lsu was just playing out the season with a lame duck coach this was a 16-13 game! Arky offense, the one that had a 1st round wr to go with this run game mustered a grand total of 13 1st downs in that game. I think it fair to say lsu d is capable of slowing this offense down. I have no doubt they can limit the arky run game and be all over Jefferson when he looks to pass. Most importantly when arky does get into scoring range they have not been very efficient and lsu d is one the better in the country keeping teams from
scoring tds when they in the red zone.

Conversely arky d has been awful, they allowing 6.4 ypp good for 114th in the country., they 121st getting off the field on 3rd downs. Their run d is bad, theIr base 3-3-5 is generally easy to run on, to make matters worse it not confusing passing games like they have in years past, when teams pass they allowing 8.6 per attempt which once again puts them down there as one the worst teams in the country. Simply put lsu can pretty much do whatever they want and with one the most dynamic playmakers in the country under center I expect they will do both!! Daniels has gotten so much better, every time lsu needed a answer last week I knew they would cause I had total confidence in this kid to get it done. Against a defense that can’t stop a nose bleed I see no reason he won’t do it again!

Maybe I’m crazy, i don’t love being on what I assume be one the squarest sides of the weekend but I see no other way and im
Way too confident in lsu to pass just cause of that. I’m sure arky take some big contrarian money (or line will shoot up), either way I’m fine with it. Lsu-3 a big one for me, you don’t let down when you on the doirstep
Of playing for the sec championship imo. You don’t let down you win this game by at least a td imo.
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I feel like I could make just as good of a case as to why LSU would be energized and fired up after the bama win and how it's going to propel good things going forward for the program.

This is why I've gotten away from trying to play armchair psychologist. Impossible to predict the emotions of 18-22 year olds. So I try to focus on the objective data in front of me. That's not to say that I don't keep situational stuff in mind but there's a limit to how much I'm going to let it influence my decisions.
 
I will be on Arkansas. It looks like a horrible bet but my data supports the play and the obvious line is congruent with my data.

When Alabama's D gives up more than 26 points they are 8-44 ATS last 52 times this happened. It happened 2 times this season and both were losses.

My thoughts support the data that Alabama is over-rated this season.
 
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AliShaheed said:
I feel like I could make just as good of a case as to why LSU would be energized and fired up after the bama win and how it's going to propel good things going forward for the program.

This is why I've gotten away from trying to play armchair psychologist. Impossible to predict the emotions of 18-22 year olds. So I try to focus on the objective data in front of me. That's not to say that I don't keep situational stuff in mind but there's a limit to how much I'm going to let it influence my decisions.
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Totally agree on both. Ive always made it clear situational stuff is like my biggest weakness., I figure cause im a different type Mfer so i just don’t understand sone the times ppl call for letdowns or look aheads, or any the other things that never would cross my mind from a emotional angle. I’ve come to understand there is absolutely something to it but myself personally figuring out when that is will never be a strength for me. My hope is to just avoid those type games the best I can.

I brought it up here for this game cause it felt like incredibly obvious thing that was gonna be discussed so figured I’d get out in front and say Im aware of but just don’t think this group gonna let down. Maybe im flat out wrong and they all still going to every party getting told how great they are instead of at practice grinding. I don’t think Kelly let’s that happen, I think they now have bigger goals in sight, I think the culture should be we expect to beat bama and play bigger games, not partying like it was the greatest achievement they will ever have!! This lsu, not little sisters of the poor! All that said I suck at this aspect so they prob have a huge letdown/be hung over sat morning!! Lol.

All that aside as I said at beginning, I think this line way short, as in lsu -10 on neutral I think incredibly fair considering what arky d been. Arky home field not worth 7 points!! Makes me think the letdown is clearly built into this line so you can be like me and think that creates value on lsu or ya can hope lsu doesn’t show up and take less points than ark should be getting imo.
 
spottie2935 said:
I will be on Arkansas. It looks like a horrible bet but my data supports the play and the obvious line is congruent with my data.

When Alabama's D gives up more than 26 points they are 8-44 ATS last 52 times this happened. It happened 2 times this season and both were losses.

My thoughts support the data that Alabama is over-rated this season.
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No bet any more horrible than the other, lol. Only question Is what does bama have to do with a play on Arkansas this week?
 
I like ecu to pull another upset Friday night. I’ve talked bout this game a bunch m the dog thread and somewhere else so no point with another long rant. I think it basically comes down to a couple things, which team can get pressure, which can keep their qb clean, which team can get 7 in red zone, and who can possess the ball longer, all pretty obvious things. Lol. Gotta think ecu chomping at the bit to get a chance to knock these guys off the way most the kids on this team been cincy whipping boys last 2-3-4 years!! Don’t think the talent gap is huge anymore. Ecu oline has been fantastic in pass protection this year, Cincy has not. Ecu been great converting 3rd downs this year and for as much pressure cincy gets they have still allowed opposing teams a very high conversion rate. Seems like a good matchup for ecu this time, ecu had the week off to prepare for this game while cincy had to deal with navy which always a exhausting game now playing Friday night, gottta be advantage ecu. Think all the stars align for a great dog to pull another upset.
 
I think I can make a case for mizzou with the points but I don’t want to, lol. They came dangerously close to beating my uk bet last week (I shoulda gotten on the under early in week!). I didn’t watch but have heard uk might have gotten a few huge breaks to win that game. What that has to do with vols? Nothing just thought I’d mention, lol. What I do think is mizzou d can watch how and what Uga d did and use that to slow vols offense down. Mizzou obviously not Uga but their d is pretty dang good. Problem is even tho I think they will be able to slow vols down some they not gonna stop them from scoring (they not Uga!), so can the offense give them help? Im not sure, vols d isn’t great but I hate mizzou offense, no identity. 57 might be high? Then again why bother w total cause I would think if mizzou can keep the game under 57 the +20.5 should cash! Mizzou can maybe keep vols to around 31-34, wouldn’t think mizzou scores more than 20, 23 been their highest output vs a power 5!! Feel like if mizzou can score 14 they have a very good shot with +20.5! Lol
 
texsn95 said:
Any idea why the Coastal line dropped 3 pts? McCall injury maybe?
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He’s out for rest of the year. Line now at -5. I’m tempted to take Coastal now but gonna lay off.

With McCall out, the Chanticleers will turn to either backups Jarrett Guest or Bryce Carpenter. The duo have combined for 71 yards passing, a touchdown and an interception on just 10 pass attempts in 2022.
 
carolinablue said:
He’s out for rest of the year. Line now at -5. I’m tempted to take Coastal now but gonna lay off.

With McCall out, the Chanticleers will turn to either backups Jarrett Guest or Bryce Carpenter. The duo have combined for 71 yards passing, a touchdown and an interception on just 10 pass attempts in 2022.
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Yeah I saw that not long after I posted the question, in my other contest, I can still get USM +11.5 (Tuesday lines) so I may make that a key pick for the week.
 
2daBank said:
No bet any more horrible than the other, lol. Only question Is what does bama have to do with a play on Arkansas this week?
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I was using Bama's long and strong history of being elite. Even the best elite teams fail when giving up points. This season when Bama plays a good team like an LSU they dont win or cover. This LSU win is good but its not as good as previous Alabama teams so their upset win vs Bama is given too much credit. In my opinion of course.
 
Another interesting side note to the TCU / Texas game...TCU's bye week was back in mid September. They will be playing their 8th consecutive game this Saturday.
 
texsn95 said:
Any idea why the Coastal line dropped 3 pts? McCall injury maybe?
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KJ said:
I don't do x and o but that's certainly what I'd love if I was waiting out for Coastal

Backup is probably just as good
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I tend to agree that with this line drop, now Coastal is appealing to me even without McCall. If they go with Carpenter, he is very experienced, not especially good, but should be adequately good. I'm familiar with Carpenter, not with the other backup Guest.

I looked up 2020 because I remember an early kick between Coastal at Ga So when McCall was out. Now departed backup Peyton replaced McCall, point spread crashed from a high of Coastal -6.5 down to 1, but Coastal won 28-14. That Coastal team was better than this one for a host of reasons, but while I would rather have McCall, I wouldn't be betting them laying the spread where it was before his injury was announced. Now at this number I could.

Southern Miss has been all over the map this year. They allowed nearly 400y rushing last week. I'm sure that bothers them and I'm sure they want to atone for that, but can they? Coastal has been inconsistent this year rushing and in other aspects. I still see a team with recent momentum (2-0 since bye) and rallying behind the backup.
 
Good story with Kansas but this seems to be a huge letdown spot in Lubbock after last week.
 
CPA-hole said:
Good story with Kansas but this seems to be a huge letdown spot in Lubbock after last week.
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I could lay about 3 with Tech, leery of much more. I think Tech has some good qualities, but they are also hard to trust.

Kansas was also in a let down spot post hosting game day and when they lost to TCU. Oklahoma led KU 35-21 HT, although KU rallied in the 2H and ultimately lost by 10, which was very close to closing numbers of 9.5, 10 or 10.5. I had +10 and pushed, but I imagine many got 10.5 and won. This also reminds me that ATS records and logs can be misleading when you have a game like the KU-OU game where one outlet might count that game as a loss and another might have it as a win (PowerSweep counts it as a KU ATS loss, Pointwise counts it as an ATS KU Win).
 
CPA-hole said:
Good story with Kansas but this seems to be a huge letdown spot in Lubbock after last week.
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Agree. Really like Tech in this spot.

Tech played TCU really well, in Ft Worth, last Saturday. McGuire has to reel in the wild, wild west attitude of going for it on his on 31. If he does against TCU it could have been a different outcome.
 
CPA-hole said:
Good story with Kansas but this seems to be a huge letdown spot in Lubbock after last week.
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Oh no doubt. It was basically like winning the SB for them last week becoming bowl eligible, this one letdown angle I can def get behind. Not to mention I think texas tech been too good not to make a bowl and they in a situation still needing 2 wins, I think they could win all 3 but it has to start here at home in what should be best time to face ku all year!
 
DaRaiders said:
https://twitter.com/x/status/1591113536083632135
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Lsu only one im on. I knew they be public but im super happy with amount of support arky getting from touts and tv picker types, I only get scared off bets when we all agree, sharps/squares/everyone in between, when it seemingly everyone against books I run, long as one faction or another on the oppo im
Not worried, books get their money either way then! I rather be on the “sharp” side, prob am more often but I don’t mind rolling with a square play every now and again, we all got a little square in us!! Lol
 
Just seeing now that UNC got to play Virginia without their top 3 receivers. Combined 99 catches on the year DNP last week.

Without them UVA put up their best offensive yardage vs a P5 team this year, 418 yards.
 
The Hokies have lost six straight games under first-year coach Brent Pry. That hadn’t happened since 1987 before this season. Duke hasn’t beaten Virginia Tech at home since 1981. The Hokies have won five of the past six meetings.
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Liberty is in an Arkansas - hosting Virginia Tech sandwich...and UConn has covered 6 straight
 
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