Week 11 Discussion Thread

B.A.R.

B.A.R.

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Starting to get into the stretch run here... lets see how things are looking early in the week...


Tenn and Pitt on Thursday night after both teams won thrillers at the end on Sunday. Line seems slightly inflated to me, to be honest. I would say 6 is more than enough and maybe even a 4.5 could be possible.

Lions and Bears...oh my...Lions small favorites in Chicago against a very good defense. Hopefully John Fox gifts us a replay or two. This is always a dangerous game before Turkey Day for the Lions. They need this to stay within distance of the Vikings before the big match-up on the Holiday. If the run defense wants to be as piss poor as last week, hammer your Jordan Howard props at 11:30 am Sunday.

The Chiefs off a bye week go face the hapless Giants. This line is double-digits, in Jersey. That tells ya about what you need to know. I am sure it will get teased to death across the board. Playing the Giants is like playing with fire though.

Baltimore is a slight favorite in Green Bay. This feels like a slug em out game. I do not feel sorry for the Fondy's and their injuries. It happens. Baltimore is always a question mark. No thanks here.

The Rams and Vikings square off in a possible playoff preview. This is a good measuring stick game for both teams. The Rams need a game against a good team and get it here. I totally like the Vikings in this one but will not be unhappy with a loss, for obvious reasons.

The Cardinals and Texans...poor poor Houston..it was fun for awhile. Now they are lined basically as a pick'em at home to the brutal Cardinals. This game is straight hot trash if I have ever seen it.

The Jags visit the Browns who played as good as they can and still lost by 14. The injury to Kizer was unfortunate and well, they are the Browns. The Jaguars will be working on new ways to taunt opponents all week this week as playing against Cleveland should bring plenty of those opportunities. No real opinion here...

Who are these Saints? Defense..running...these are not our fathers Saints..or Twinkies or even the Bobby Herbert editions.. Washington limps to two after getting drilled by Case Keenum. It was a bad spot for the Skins but that is still not something you want to be known for.

Cincy goes to Mile High... that is about all I want to talk about here....eff this game...

The Patriots and Raiders renew their rivalry in a different country. As noted, the Pats did not travel back home after the game in Denver. The Raiders are off a bye week. Can the Raiders get a full offensive game here? Methinks I want their tt here but will wait and think about it some more...

The Philly train is back this week heading to Dallas. I am sure it will be the trendy road fav of a FG play of the week. I can not give a good reason otherwise other than, well, it is the NFL.

Falcons and Seahawks on MNF.

I'll be on Falcons, most likely.


Alright, lets talk...
 
Might be 1st time all year I like the bills. Last 2 weeks seem to have gotten line adjusted. Love me some chargers as dogs but 4.5 point favs with a non existent home field? Team just finds ways to lose and if anything gotta believe per usual this one comes down to final possession.
 
Yea I lean Tennessee as the Steelers just have not been firing on all cylinders all year. They could win, but maybe not by 7 or 7.5. They could even lose this game IMO.

I like the Eagles and it seems like a no-brainer, but Divisional games always are funny. However, I think the Eagles are just too good right now.
I feel like riding the Saint Train, but -11.5 has to make you worry about the back door cover, i mean the Saints would have to blow the Redskins out.
Against the AFC north, JAX has generally done a number on the teams except for Cincy...., but their QB yeesh.....

The KC/Giants game is interesting...cause I feel that Reid really prepares his teams well off the bye. Giants to me feel like a hot mess, can't score, can't stop anyone. Could Tease this game with the Saints game maybe.

That Bears game has to make you wonder. Lions struggled at home against the browns and Put it away late. Can the Lions do it again on the road? If they put up 38 points, the Bears won't have a chance as they won't score that many points.

All those other games to me are trash and not worth betting unless you find a good angle.
 
KC will be a popular survivor pick. Not sure 10 is enough points. The Jints are a bad football team from soup to nuts. I can't think of one positive that would make me lean to NYG. This could get ugly real quick. And even if the Jints somehow hang in early they will eventually get steamrolled.

Kinda like TB this week. Defense showed a spark last week against the run. Could have been the fact that it was the Jets (Miami also shut down the Jets ground game a couple weeks ago) but the eye test has me leaning towards TB. Short week for Miami. Both teams with brutal schedule effectively not having a bye. Short trip for the visitor. Interstate rivalry.

Like the Eagles at that number. Not sure Dallas has the coaches to adapt to adversity. They are beat up and shorthanded at extremely key positions. I'm thinking it may take a couple weeks to right the ship. If you want to lean on the division aspect or the desperation aspect I can see how one could make a case for the Cowboys but I'm not seeing it this week.

Pats roll in Mexico City. It's that time of year when BB knows what he has and starts to leverage his weapons. Raiders off the bye, Pats practicing at 8,000 ft at AFA and bonding on the road. I've seen this too many times in the last 16 years. If the Pats play well they cover this number. Raiders are talented no doubt and on their best day could pull off a W on the neutral field but they are still the raiders. I'll take the more disciplined squad on the 'road'.

Lean ATL at that number. Same with WASH, 8 is too many imo but the skins are pretty beat up. RAMS VIKES game should be a good one. Two well coached teams. No opinion on result. JAX CLE. What level of stupidity are we in for in this game? Like Jax because of that D but boy are they immature and last I looked Bortles was still on the roster. Wouldn't touch this one. TEN PITT no fucking idea who shows up for either team. One or both of them are competing to be cannon fodder for the Pats in January.
 
If McAdoo had been fired this week, I think the Giants at this number would have been a decent play. With all that's going on with that team and KC and Reid off a much needed bye, I don't see how it will be close. I'll be there with the Mrs. to hopefully witness a beatdown
 
Capaholic said:
Taylor definitely shouldn't have let the Saints score 47 points if he wanted to keep playing. Obviously. :angrytomato:
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While I totally agree the Saints loss falls mainly on the defenses inability to stop anything, I do not disagree with the move at all. A bit surprised they would choose a road game especially after they were insistent Monday Tyrod would be the starter. Sitting at 5 wins and you know what Tyrod is, they have to find out what Peterman is before planning the future. If he can read a defense and get through the progressions in the pocket quicker than tt it would be nice. I have my worries about the oline protecting him but this just shows Mcd and beane are not afraid to make moves and have a longterm plan in place.
 
Capaholic said:
If McAdoo had been fired this week, I think the Giants at this number would have been a decent play. With all that's going on with that team and KC and Reid off a much needed bye, I don't see how it will be close. I'll be there with the Mrs. to hopefully witness a beatdown
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Ownership kept McAdoo because they are afraid that firing him will lead to a couple of wins and ruin their draft position. The Giants aren't winning another game.
 
Lexington 125 said:
While I totally agree the Saints loss falls mainly on the defenses inability to stop anything, I do not disagree with the move at all. A bit surprised they would choose a road game especially after they were insistent Monday Tyrod would be the starter. Sitting at 5 wins and you know what Tyrod is, they have to find out what Peterman is before planning the future. If he can read a defense and get through the progressions in the pocket quicker than tt it would be nice. I have my worries about the oline protecting him but this just shows Mcd and beane are not afraid to make moves and have a longterm plan in place.
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Its the right move and as a Jets fan I am completely envious that the Bills seem to have a long term plan. Signing Tyrod to a huge deal next offseason would be such a Jets move that I fully expect it to happen. The Bills rightly know that they aren't winning a championship with Taylor so they need to see if Peterman can play before making a move to draft their future QB in 2018.
 
Qb change doesn't really effect my reasoning for playing Bills this week. They still a team that wins off their opponents mistakes. Chargers are better than anyone at losing games they should win.
 
I swore I wouldn't, but everything I look at makes me want to take the Browns again. Why does this keep happening lol...
 
Capaholic said:
I swore I wouldn't, but everything I look at makes me want to take the Browns again. Why does this keep happening lol...
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Lol. I almost never do it but they very tempting this week. They pretty decent against the run, bortles throwing a bunch doesn't exactly strike me as a covering a td formula!!
 
I like the over 44 tonight. It could potentially be ugly if the OC's are stubborn but think both defenses vulnerable in the secondary. Lafell and green did a number on titans secondary last week and expect brown and ju ju to do the same. Think steelers jump out to early lead and force titans to throw to stay in it. Seeing something like high 20s low 30s for steelers and titans getting into low-mid 20s.
 
Just heard this crazy stat that Balty falls into on Sunday.

Since 2000
Road favs off a bye are 61-32 ATS 65.6%
 
Baltimore fall into that "road fave after bye" situation as well as Eagles & Chiefs - also Carolina next week. It also goes to 80% ATS laying more than 4 points (Chiefs).
 
Damn, nice stat.. I was all ready to play Baltimore then I heard Rodgers could come back next month? Was worried that news might propel pack to few wins.
 
2daBank said:
Yea that sucks, I was thinking if they were willing to open there it probably wouldn't move much, so much for that. Lol
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Locked in Eagles -3.5 (-117) yesterday with 5Dimes, right when all the offshore books were moving to Eagles -4.5. -3 would definitely have been nice, but i'll take -3.5. i can see this line move slightly a little more. i don't see a situation where there will be any buy back on the Boys.
 
Hakan's Picks said:
Locked in Eagles -3.5 (-117) yesterday with 5Dimes, right when all the offshore books were moving to Eagles -4.5. -3 would definitely have been nice, but i'll take -3.5. i can see this line move slightly a little more. i don't see a situation where there will be any buy back on the Boys.
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Yea I agree, seems like a situation where "sharps" and "squares" alike on philly for obvious and not as obvious reasons. Being the stand alone prime time game have lots of chasers loading up on eagles, might be 6 at some shops by kickoff.. most scary thing about betting eagles is it one those games pretty much going head to head w books, shady officiating almost a given, lol..
 
Bills thoughts-

2-2 ats otr (1-3 su) and evidently Tyrod is worth 1.5-2 points. Last week unfortunately I was correct in calling the Bills getting blown out. Tyrod is the better qb right now but the Bills have to see what they have with Nate in a game situation. Looking at the schedule there is no easy week to put him in so I'm ok with the decision. But to be clear Tyrod is not the biggest issue in recent struggles.

-Bills D-line is trash- and it's not because Dareus left. Kyle williams has been solid his whole career but is old. Hughes banged up but both him and Lawson have had trouble getting any pressure on the qb. Looking back the run d HAD to look good when u faced the #31, #28, #27 rushing offenses. Yes they beat the Falcons and Denver but also allowed 5 ypc to both. A look on the surface and ppl will say the Chargers have a terrible run d, but they have allowed 6tds as opposed to Buffalo's 14 allowed on the ground.

- The offensive line is shaky at best. Glenn and Miller (trash) will be out. Here is where there is some contention- they have allowed a ton of pressure this season but Tyrod is also slow in his progressions which causes inflated numbers. If there is a possible upside to Peterman it will be the ball getting out quicker. The fact remains Ingram and Bosa have combined for 18 sacks (by comparison Hughes/Lawson have combined for 5) so I still don't have faith in the line to keep the Chargers D out of the backfield. Most think this could be a breakout game for Shady, but I would expect 9 in the box and a ton of pressure....

Bills passing game should have everyone at their disposal as Zay is back. He was a bright spot in the Jets game, and KB/Clay should provide nice big targets for Nate. No Tolbert means Cadet will serve as the backup rb, so no heft to pound those short yardage plays. Shady will have a huge workload, he is the center of the offense and it goes as he does.

I think SD has the players to dominate the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball, and backing a rookie qb first start otr is a scary. Line says it will be a low scoring game and I would expect a vanilla game plan from Buffalo, but that # leaves little wiggle room. Gun to my head I would be on Chargers- pts. If the TT somehow dropped to 23 I would jump on the over but it likely won't. I'll be cheering for the road win but I don't endorse a wager on the Bills. IMO if you think they keep it close McCoy prop or the tt over could be the better option. I fully expect a 7-10 pt loss
 
Capaholic said:
I swore I wouldn't, but everything I look at makes me want to take the Browns again. Why does this keep happening lol...
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ha ha...so true...i am the say way, i keep finding ways to bet cleve and they keep burning me...i will not play them this week so jump on them because they will cover if i don't play them
 
Not really a road game for bills rookie. Travel yes, hostile crowd? Nope. I look at chargers soccer stadium as a neutral field so imo you get extra value going against them at home. Cetainly don't like play cause of anything bills do, simply a fade of chargers laying more points than they capable of covering with poor coaching/play calling, bone headed mistakes, and a knack for keeping games close to the last play. Ultra conservative game plan by bills should have them in it till the end.
 
How crazy is it to like Blane Gabbert and his cards this week.. I been bagging on gabbert since he was at mizzou, was shocked he was drafted in top 10, and he never really seemed to improve at all.

That said I saw him once or twice this preseason and was really impressed, he made some throws into really tight windows, he still has plenty of athletic ability. Maybe finally getting to learn under a good offensive coach like Arians has done him some good? In fairness he has never had even a competent coach. Possible Stanton was second guy in cause he been arians guy and in system for so long? Could this be chance this former top 10 pick needs to resurrect career? Can't believe I'm saying this and I know preseason doesn't mean much but I was more impressed w what I saw than ever from him and it stuck with me. Texans pass defense has plenty of holes, just saying!!
 
I don't think it's crazy at all to like the Cards this week. IF there's a dropoff from Stanton to Gabbert it's minimal and as you say, the Houston defense is nowhere near what it was earlier in the season before injuries took their toll. Add in that Tom Savage thoroughly sucks and I like Az to win outright and LOVE them in teasers in a game where not a lot of points should be scored.
 
The Cowboys were the huge public dog that lost last week, so as far as public perception goes, the "what have you done for me lately" has been clearly established. And it shows. Look at the distribution of wagers.

What gets me is that the Cowboys were sacked 8 times last week. Their left tackle received no help whatsoever. Was that adjustment ever made throughout the game? Because Aikman clearly pointed it out as soon as the first sack occurred. NFL coaches aren't that dumb. I want to know how much the Cowboys really brought to the table last week. How much did they want to show Philly?

You have to go back to 2004 before you can find the Cowboys losing this game - the game before Thanksgiving. They're 14-1 in this game the last fifteen seasons. Jason Garrett has never lost when he is looking ahead to Thursday. I think the biggest thing is Sean Lee. It's been a while since the Cowboys have won a game without him. I think this game sees 60 points, with the Cowboys having to score a shitload to keep up. Something really makes me sick to my stomach to back the heavy road favorite in prime time - "the only game in town" so to speak.

I sincerely want to know how much of last week was just smoke and mirrors, and if this is the game they were really trying to win the last two weeks.
 
Vikings are looking ahead to a Thursday game. Since Zimmer has been head coach they've gone 3-0 to the over in that spot with 90 points allowed.
 
I honestly believe Garrett and co are just that bad. In no way do I buy they let a journeyman scrub like Claiborne wreck their whole game plan and give them a loss they could really ill afford simply not to show philly they capable of making adjustments to help the turnstile backup tackle? When have we ever seen impressive game plan and/or in game adjustments from Dallas?

Absolutely share your trepidation about backing the road fav the whole world will be on sharp and square alike in stand alone prime time game when who knows how many be chasing! Clearly a game books will need Dallas and who the hell wants to be against them in that kind of spot? I sure don't, can't begin to tell ya how I'd expect this game to be officiated without sounding like a conspiracy nut job! lol.

I figured it be -6 by gametime but hell it already there, I'd be surprised if it didn't hit 7 now. philly taking all da money in, but how can ya be against them? Think I just held off all week hoping line would get away from me after I missed 3 so I could simply pass..

not even sure about total, initially leaned with you that gonna have to be high scoring for Dallas to compete but just not sure what their offense gonna do about eagles front 7 when they couldnt begin to block atl? Part of me thinks Dallas might be able to come up with better defensive game with the pass rush getting after wentz. Figure out a way to control clock w short passes. All that would depend on excellent coaching tho which I never expect from Garrett,
 
kdog said:
I don't think it's crazy at all to like the Cards this week. IF there's a dropoff from Stanton to Gabbert it's minimal and as you say, the Houston defense is nowhere near what it was earlier in the season before injuries took their toll. Add in that Tom Savage thoroughly sucks and I like Az to win outright and LOVE them in teasers in a game where not a lot of points should be scored.
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My biggest concern is while Houston central time cardinals have historically been terrible traveling anywhere east in early time slot. Until squeezing by colts in ot earlier this year zona had lost I believe 7 or 8 straight playing the early start game, not sure if that only eastern time zone or central as well? I was hoping it would get up to +3 as I think gabbert less liked than even savage by the majority, getting impatient and decided I'm playing zona ml +118.
 
KJ said:
Houston are an hour different from us now, not some major time change
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Yea but it is a early start which only happens to them on road, doesn't matter I'm committed to zona. I have convinced myself I like gabbert to have a nice game and savage to continue sucking.

Gonna be a hold my nose Sunday I'm on browns 1st half +4.5, game +7.5, and money line. Think this gonna be a physical old school type afc north battle. Browns want that feeling niners had last week, they havnt quit like gmen. Browns tough in the trenches I think early on they will bring the fight to jags and force bortles to throw in the cold wind. I like duke johnson to make some plays out of backfield as wr. Really only asking Browns to give me 14-16 points without putting d in bad positions and I think more than enough to cover, if the defense can make a play and push them up to 19-20 points they could very well win.
 
2daBank said:
Not really a road game for bills rookie. Travel yes, hostile crowd? Nope. I look at chargers soccer stadium as a neutral field so imo you get extra value going against them at home. Cetainly don't like play cause of anything bills do, simply a fade of chargers laying more points than they capable of covering with poor coaching/play calling, bone headed mistakes, and a knack for keeping games close to the last play. Ultra conservative game plan by bills should have them in it till the end.
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The crowd size doesn't matter it's still a road game for a team that has trouble on the road. To be clear I'm more worried about the Dline/oline getting dominated than Peterman. No Tolbert I think is bigger than most think, unless Shady takes over. Peterman does get the benefit of a full week of practice with KB, and Zay will play. I really hope Clay can play. I honestly think it would benefit the Bills to throw early but who knows what they are gameplanning....

I just think SD will find room to run and keep it short yardage 3rd downs. Rivers is good in those situations and right now the bills D is in full regression mode. I hope you are right and the Bills force Rivers into mistakes. Gaines will be back at cb which is MUCH needed, who knows maybe that's the catalyst for this secondary to get turnovers.
 
Found an error on Bovada. Has Patriots TT at 23.5 instead of Raiders. I locked in the over at 1u.
 
2daBank said:
Yea but it is a early start which only happens to them on road, doesn't matter I'm committed to zona. I have convinced myself I like gabbert to have a nice game and savage to continue sucking.

Gonna be a hold my nose Sunday I'm on browns 1st half +4.5, game +7.5, and money line. Think this gonna be a physical old school type afc north battle. Browns want that feeling niners had last week, they havnt quit like gmen. Browns tough in the trenches I think early on they will bring the fight to jags and force bortles to throw in the cold wind. I like duke johnson to make some plays out of backfield as wr. Really only asking Browns to give me 14-16 points without putting d in bad positions and I think more than enough to cover, if the defense can make a play and push them up to 19-20 points they could very well win.
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I thought of Browns ML.
No idea why , nothing to really give a good reason for it. Just seemed like the spot.

Screw it, I'm ML it.
 
ended up on Chergers-4 1sth along with o20.5. I could easily see a 17-7 type 1sth, and worry about the game slowing because SD pounds the run with the lead 2ndh.

I truly hope Peterman can come out and make big plays downfield....just think it's a bad matchup for Bills d right now
 
Hags like 11-1 ATS last 12 as home points but it's been awhile since they wore those pants.
 
Its hard to back Seattle after the carnage last week...they are pretty banged up.

Kam Chancellor - out
Duane Brown - GTD
CJ Prosise - done for the year
Richard Sherman - done for the year
DT Jarran Reed - status uncertain
Paul Richardson - Questionable, likely to play
Jimmy Graham - Questionable, likely to play
 
I looked at Lang's website a couple weeks ago. Just to see. To take a look and get a glimpse of what it might be. Because I'd never heard of him before you guys. It's pretty bad and exactly what you'd expect from someone, anyone selling ATS picks like that. It's no secret touts are shit, con-artists, and whatever. People who prey on and promise shitty things to feeble minds. Anyway, his dime system is supposed to be a percentage of your normal unit. A hundred dime play is a full unit, a forty dime play is 0.4 units, and so on. That is such useless information yet I know it. So I just figured I'd share it with you because I'm bored waiting on the game to start. Thank you.
 
Hulu said:
Its hard to back Seattle after the carnage last week...they are pretty banged up.

Kam Chancellor - out
Duane Brown - GTD
CJ Prosise - done for the year
Richard Sherman - done for the year
DT Jarran Reed - status uncertain
Paul Richardson - Questionable, likely to play
Jimmy Graham - Questionable, likely to play
Click to expand...

its hard to back atl on the road, ever.
 
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