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Week 11 Discussion (Current lines post #6)

B.A.R.

B.A.R.

CTG Partner
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Always good to look ahead and get some prep done!


Baltimore is laying 3 at home to the Bengals... a lot of discussion around here with regards to the AFC representative in the SB and seemingly more of you than not think the Ravens are superior. So, this line indicates PK or maybe even a slight lean-to Cincy on a neutral field...

Houston laying 4.5 at home to the Cardinals. Will Kyler start again? Can Houston become more consistent? They seem like they are on another level than the Cardinals. I don't know, this seems like a pretty interesting game...

Jacksonville will be hosting the Titans. The component here that is interesting is the fact the Jags will be off a game against the Niners. This is a rivalry game with a new QB. This feels like a potential situational spot.... Jags are laying 6...

Miami off a bye, and perhaps gaining Achane back (plus others?). The current number is -10. The Raiders will be 3 games into the new regime, and off a prime-time physical affair. With a total of 48, this feels like a pretty good opportunity for a TT perhaps? Either way, I'd lay 10 right now and may have already done that (wink, wink)...

Super Bowl rematch on MNF, this time the venue is Arrowhead. The current numbers are 2.5 and 48.5. I do love me some Chiefs unders, and this feels like the ultimate ball control game. Wait on the total, let Joe Public bet this one up a bit...
 
Agreed on dolphins, raiders are clearly in a better mood now without McDaniels, but it's still AOC at qb and with the matchup on d vs the dolphins speed is a bad one

Dont know how crosby can play as usual 95% of snaps vs a team who play so fast, and if hes not on the field there is zero pressure, Tyree wilson has been invisible


I think philly matchup for KC is bad, reid off a bye numbers are legit though
 
B.A.R. said:
Always good to look ahead and get some prep done!


Baltimore is laying 3 at home to the Bengals... a lot of discussion around here with regards to the AFC representative in the SB and seemingly more of you than not think the Ravens are superior. So, this line indicates PK or maybe even a slight lean-to Cincy on a neutral field...

Houston laying 4.5 at home to the Cardinals. Will Kyler start again? Can Houston become more consistent? They seem like they are on another level than the Cardinals. I don't know, this seems like a pretty interesting game...

Jacksonville will be hosting the Titans. The component here that is interesting is the fact the Jags will be off a game against the Niners. This is a rivalry game with a new QB. This feels like a potential situational spot.... Jags are laying 6...

Miami off a bye, and perhaps gaining Achane back (plus others?). The current number is -10. The Raiders will be 3 games into the new regime, and off a prime-time physical affair. With a total of 48, this feels like a pretty good opportunity for a TT perhaps? Either way, I'd lay 10 right now and may have already done that (wink, wink)...

Super Bowl rematch on MNF, this time the venue is Arrowhead. The current numbers are 2.5 and 48.5. I do love me some Chiefs unders, and this feels like the ultimate ball control game. Wait on the total, let Joe Public bet this one up a bit...
Click to expand...
If you want to hedge your Jax to win AFC South bet now‘s the time. Desperate 49ers then opponent seven days later then Houston who basically always has our number then Bengals
 
VirginiaCavs said:
If you want to hedge your Jax to win AFC South bet now‘s the time. Desperate 49ers then opponent seven days later then Houston who basically always has our number then Bengals
Click to expand...
See, this is the kind of capping I like to see.

Two game lead for Duval but the schedule is tough coming up.

Texans schedule is pretty average at best the rest of the way.

These two play each other twice, still.

Now, this is assuming the other two are out of it. What if Levi's is the real deal and they go on a run?

Just food for thought.

In the event this is a two horse race, staking a bit on Houston Texans +550 would guarantee profit currently. But, again, we have those pesky two other teams.

Good looking out VC.
 
Nov 16 Thu 2023

07:15 PM
311Cincinnati Bengals+3½
-107		+165O 46
-111
312Baltimore Ravens+1 Markets-3½
-113		-190U 46
-109
Nov 19 Sun 2023

12:00 PM
451Pittsburgh Steelers+4
-115		+162O 37
-110
452Cleveland Browns+1 Markets-4
-105		-182U 37
-110
12:00 PM
453Arizona Cardinals+4
-110		+175O 48
-110
454Houston Texans+1 Markets-4
-110		-205U 48
-110
12:00 PM
455Los Angeles Chargers-3
-122		-175O 44
-110
456Green Bay Packers+1 Markets+3
+102		+155U 44
-110
12:00 PM
457New York Giants+10
-114		+360O 37
-110
458Washington Commanders+1 Markets-10
-106		-450U 37
-110
12:00 PM
459Tennessee Titans+6½
-109		+250O 40
-110
460Jacksonville Jaguars+1 Markets-6½
-111		-300U 40
-110
12:00 PM
461Chicago Bears+10
-110		+395O 47
-110
462Detroit Lions+1 Markets-10
-110		-500U 47
-110
12:00 PM
463Las Vegas Raiders+12
-110		+520O 48½
-110
464Miami Dolphins+1 Markets-12
-110		-700U 48½
-110
12:00 PM
465Dallas Cowboys-10½
-110		-550O 41½
-110
466Carolina Panthers+1 Markets+10½
-110		+430U 41½
-110
03:05 PM
467Tampa Bay Buccaneers+11
-110		+460O 41
-111
468San Francisco 49ers+1 Markets-11
-110		-600U 41
-109
03:25 PM
469Seattle Seahawks-2½
-112		-150O 44½
-110
470Los Angeles Rams+1 Markets+2½
-108		+130U 44½
-110
07:20 PM
473Minnesota Vikings+1
-110		O 43½
-110
474Denver Broncos+1 Markets-1
-110		U 43½
-110
Nov 20 Mon 2023

07:15 PM
475Philadelphia Eagles+2½
+105		+130O 46
-105
476Kansas City Chiefs-2½
-125		-150U 46
-115
 
The 9ers are a nightmare matchup for the Bucs. 9ers have dominated Baker while in Cleveland, and dominated the Bucs last year with Brady. Quick trigger high IQ guys like Kirk and Burr can attack the 9ers. But if you try to do what TLaw did you will get eaten alive. 20+ point win.
 
Miami has been bet up to -14 now. Wish I'd had jumped on them at -10. Can't touch them here.

I do love the 99ers @ -11 against the Bucs. Any thoughts on that?
 
Huge game for Cleveland as @Gandolf expressed in the 'what we know' thread...

This is the time to get next level for the Browns.
 
Lions have the quick turnaround here, so they would do well to get a big lead and rest some stars in the 4th.

We'll see. I feel like this could be an interesting game for a bit. That is just a gut feeling. I expect a lot of Gibbs/Monty here.
 
FWIW I think Houston wins this week and then next week vs. Jags to take lead in AFC South (both would be 7-4 but Houston won both games). They have Jags number over the years and destroyed them in Week 2 at Jags even before Stroud became a sensation. And they have a much easier schedule the rest of the year.
 
lvmike32 said:
FWIW I think Houston wins this week and then next week vs. Jags to take lead in AFC South (both would be 7-4 but Houston won both games). They have Jags number over the years and destroyed them in Week 2 at Jags even before Stroud became a sensation. And they have a much easier schedule the rest of the year.
Click to expand...
I don't disagree but in terms of passer rating Stroud had his second-best game of his season against Jax. He was very very good in that game, the media just took time to catch on.
 
VirginiaCavs said:
I don't disagree but in terms of passer rating Stroud had his second-best game of his season against Jax. He was very very good in that game, the media just took time to catch on.
Click to expand...
Yeah don't disagree at all. Funny but everyone was on Jags that game and I thought Texans would beat them as they always do. But they killed them. Had my largest future on Jags to win AFC South but hedged out yesterday. I didn't expect them to beat SF but to not be competitive is a little scary. I honestly think Houston should win the AFC South now - their schedule has to be the easiest in the league going forward - and they have Jags number head to head. +240 is great value on them.
 
lvmike32 said:
Yeah don't disagree at all. Funny but everyone was on Jags that game and I thought Texans would beat them as they always do. But they killed them. Had my largest future on Jags to win AFC South but hedged out yesterday. I didn't expect them to beat SF but to not be competitive is a little scary. I honestly think Houston should win the AFC South now - their schedule has to be the easiest in the league going forward - and they have Jags number head to head. +240 is great value on them.
Click to expand...
As BAR mentioned, I think the Colts could be interesting, though, as well. But yes I agree, Texans have big advantages over Jax. I really felt before the season began a great fear in response to all the Jax hype. I did not invest in a Jax future and this unraveling feels inevitable. The AFC South loves the last-to-first move somehow. Last year it was Jax and Texans this year would prolong the trend.
 
VirginiaCavs said:
As BAR mentioned, I think the Colts could be interesting, though, as well. But yes I agree, Texans have big advantages over Jax. I really felt before the season began a great fear in response to all the Jax hype. I did not invest in a Jax future and this unraveling feels inevitable. The AFC South loves the last-to-first move somehow. Last year it was Jax and Texans this year would prolong the trend.
Click to expand...
Yeah i sprayed a little on Indy too just to cover. I really thought Jags would take leap forward and run away with that Division. But they haven't at all and Stroud has been unbelievable. I really like Houston to win Division now. We'll see how they do with more of a target on their back now. But their schedule is so so easy - they are set up.
 
lvmike32 said:
Yeah i sprayed a little on Indy too just to cover. I really thought Jags would take leap forward and run away with that Division. But they haven't at all and Stroud has been unbelievable. I really like Houston to win Division now. We'll see how they do with more of a target on their back now. But their schedule is so so easy - they are set up.
Click to expand...
I mean, to be fair, it‘s not like you can really say Jax has disappointed? The usual loss to Texans plus losses to two elite teams. They beat Buffalo. Did you see them being better than their current 6-3? They are on pace to improve on last year‘s record. This being said, I do like Texans as well. Winning at Cincy is super impressive for them.
 
VirginiaCavs said:
I mean, to be fair, it‘s not like you can really say Jax has disappointed? The usual loss to Texans plus losses to two elite teams. They beat Buffalo. Did you see them being better than their current 6-3? They are on pace to improve on last year‘s record. This being said, I do like Texans as well. Winning at Cincy is super impressive for them.
Click to expand...
BAR joined me on the bet and one thing i noted at the time was they played their tough games at home. Kc and sf and some others. Thought they might pull one out. But Texans destroying them at home in week 2 was a horrible sign. Thought they would end Texans dominance in Peterson year 2, etc. and it was worse. So was hoping for 7 2 now probably. Though i thought Buffalo was toss up.

But it is much more Houston and Stroud. I thought he would struggle big time and its been opposite. Thats Coach of the Year there imo.
 
I would love one especially as a Jags fan…can someone give me one good reason not to invest in Texans to win AFC South?
 
lvmike32 said:
BAR joined me on the bet and one thing i noted at the time was they played their tough games at home. Kc and sf and some others. Thought they might pull one out. But Texans destroying them at home in week 2 was a horrible sign. Thought they would end Texans dominance in Peterson year 2, etc. and it was worse. So was hoping for 7 2 now probably. Though i thought Buffalo was toss up.

But it is much more Houston and Stroud. I thought he would struggle big time and its been opposite. Thats Coach of the Year there imo.
Click to expand...
Them not bearing Chiefs was disappointing for me. Should have been a good revenge win. But it was tough catching them off a loss. We also caught SF in a desperation spot. Texans were weird. They also exploded vs Pitt the week after killing us, then cooled off.

This isn’t to say that Jax has just been unlucky. I think the main thing is that Trevor has been awfully overrated. He was never good last year against good pass defenses, I never understood why he should suddenly morph into Joe Montana. He‘s a good quarterback, just not a Burrow or Herbert.
 
lvmike32 said:
Yeah i sprayed a little on Indy too just to cover. I really thought Jags would take leap forward and run away with that Division. But they haven't at all and Stroud has been unbelievable. I really like Houston to win Division now. We'll see how they do with more of a target on their back now. But their schedule is so so easy - they are set up.
Click to expand...
I have basically bet enough on Houston to guarantee money both ways as of this morning.
 
The 49ers trend doesn't seem to be applying this year...plus I think it helps that Jax lost in a blowout (similar deal with Dallas). I know they spared Etienne.

Titans offense is radically worse on the road than at home. If you like TIts then I think you have to go "under."

Their offense is too reliant on explosive plays, which Jax hasn't been bad enough at giving up to justify optimism in Tits imo.

Tits front seven has been super disappointing and the secondary is expectedly vulnerable. They just don't generate pressure and their o-line is vulnerable. Jax should win the trenches. I think this is a good bounce-back spot for the Jags...I thought of maybe a look-ahead angle, but no way they look past Tennessee...we may not be Tenny's main rival, but they are definitely ours.

I know I'm usually the anxious pessimist as a fan (still am) but objectively speaking this looks pretty good for Jax.

May hope for a Texans let-down this week (does Houston look past Arizona for its showdown vs Jax??) and some Jax fortune this week and maybe even the week after, too, before playing Texans to win the division.
 
Texans: they played well against Lamar, holding Baltimore in that game to 265 total yards. So they are apparently good against mobile quarterbacks. Match-up wise they should be solid against Arizona
 
Here's another big home/away angle...this is something I've noticed over the years as a previous Dak Prescott owner in fantasy.

Dak this year at home: 124..2 passer rating

Dak this year away: 87.2 passer rating.
 
Talk about a spot for Buffalo! Off two losses. Eagles and Chiefs on deck. Revenge angle. 4-0 at home. I think Bills will be super focused and make for a great ML partner.
 
Broncos defense has improved a lot....the way to score a lot on Denver is on the ground, but Minnesota is weak at running back

Russell Wilson also playing a lot better, has a good matchup against weak corners
 
VirginiaCavs said:
I would love one especially as a Jags fan…can someone give me one good reason not to invest in Texans to win AFC South?
Click to expand...
That defense is not good. LB Perryman suspended 3 games thins out the lb core.

Big fan of how Stroud has been playing but I think Jax is a way better team overall. Recency bias because of Stroud's play paired with Jags getting owned in a tough spot vs a great team makes Houston tempting.

It wouldn't surprise me to see Jax go on a run and finish with 12 wins. I see the easier schedule lined up for Texans but they still have to face some tough defenses in Clev/Den/Jets. Texans would have to only lose 1 remaining game to get to 12 wins.

All in all I can understand why +240 looks like value but i tend to think you'd be buying high on Texans/selling low on Jags.
 
Lexington 125 said:
That defense is not good. LB Perryman suspended 3 games thins out the lb core.

Big fan of how Stroud has been playing but I think Jax is a way better team overall. Recency bias because of Stroud's play paired with Jags getting owned in a tough spot vs a great team makes Houston tempting.

It wouldn't surprise me to see Jax go on a run and finish with 12 wins. I see the easier schedule lined up for Texans but they still have to face some tough defenses in Clev/Den/Jets. Texans would have to only lose 1 remaining game to get to 12 wins.

All in all I can understand why +240 looks like value but i tend to think you'd be buying high on Texans/selling low on Jags.
Click to expand...


Great post.

I will say, based on tracking their play, it wouldn’t surprise me if Jax started playing better now that this big target is on their backs. In multiple games (Week 1 vs Indy, TNF at Saints), Jax has struck me as a “fuck around” team
 
Do the Raiders have a problem traveling multiple time zones? Double digit losses at Buffalo, Chicago, Detroit. Now at Miami.
 
Is there any reason not to play the Chargers at -3 at Green Bay? I'm sort of conditioned to expect LAC to underperform, but I just don't get why this game doesn't play out basically similar to their double-digit win at the Jets? As long as vintage Favre doesn't replace Love...
 
Very fortunate for the Steelers. DTR has not looked good and I expect Clev to be ultra conservative with him and rely on their 3 RBs to control TOP. Points should be at a premium in this game.
 
brewers888 said:
The Jets are on the verge of quitting on Saleh and I expect a big effort from Buffalo in a last stand kind of situation. Breece couldn't run for 200 on a high school defense behind that line.
Click to expand...
Jets held a players-only meeting.

I'm sure not all players-only meetings are the same.

But I can't help remembering the Penn State situation some years ago: loss to Ohio State, players-only meeting, still unmotivated and suffer upset loss to Michigan State in the following week.
 
brewers888 said:
The Jets are on the verge of quitting on Saleh and I expect a big effort from Buffalo in a last stand kind of situation. Breece couldn't run for 200 on a high school defense behind that line.
Click to expand...
No I agree that line is terrible but there is NO WAY I would be looking at laying 7 right now with Buffalo. Said it after the Jags loss with that many defensive injuries the Bills won't be covering as a fave and boom 0-5 ats since.

I mean books throwing a -7 line again I thought it would be -5.5/6. Maybe Bills are the side I just couldn't stomach it. They might come out with a max effort offensively would love to see it but Allen is a turnover machine. Nobody has pointed this out but the Bills STAY losing the field position battle. IDK how you would look up the stats on that but they never flip the field!

I might still get involved in props- I would think new OC everyone furious about lack of designed runs for Allen he's going to run for 35+ yards. Diggs off a 5 target game easy 12+ target 7+ catch game on deck.
 
VirginiaCavs said:
Jets held a players-only meeting.

I'm sure not all players-only meetings are the same.

But I can't help remembering the Penn State situation some years ago: loss to Ohio State, players-only meeting, still unmotivated and suffer upset loss to Michigan State in the following week.
Click to expand...
Its a sure sign that things are falling apart. Watch how ugly it gets when they lose these next two to Buffalo and Miami.
 
Lexington 125 said:
No I agree that line is terrible but there is NO WAY I would be looking at laying 7 right now with Buffalo. Said it after the Jags loss with that many defensive injuries the Bills won't be covering as a fave and boom 0-5 ats since.

I mean books throwing a -7 line again I thought it would be -5.5/6. Maybe Bills are the side I just couldn't stomach it. They might come out with a max effort offensively would love to see it but Allen is a turnover machine. Nobody has pointed this out but the Bills STAY losing the field position battle. IDK how you would look up the stats on that but they never flip the field!

I might still get involved in props- I would think new OC everyone furious about lack of designed runs for Allen he's going to run for 35+ yards. Diggs off a 5 target game easy 12+ target 7+ catch game on deck.
Click to expand...
I think this game is a total stay away as its hard to have any confidence in either team. Maybe Buffalo gets a boost from having a new OC but its hard to lay 6.5 with their offense struggling against a good defense that usually plays well against them.
 
Coach of the year is gonna be tough and will depend on finishes

Obviously Campbell and Ryans are probably the frontrunners.

McDaniel probably the stalker

For me, Tomlin deserves it as of this moment. Amazing. But I wouldn't be upset with Lions or Texans guy winning. McDaniel has to give a lot of thanks to the personnel imo.

It is hard to figure out how Miami is going to pick up enough first downs to stay within two TDs of the raiders. Wait ... Dolphins are favored? In that case, I would think it is a trap and maybe Miami wins by 17. Tough one with that crazy line flip.
 
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