Week 11 College Football

RambleOn

RambleOn

The Law of Winning
Gonna post my record in my sig from now on.

Will start with leans, and add final plays as the week goes on:

I have these locked in:

Navy -12 (3 units) (WINNER)

S.Miss PICK (win)/Vandy +8 (2 team teaser played Sunday night, Vandy pending) (2 units) LOSS

Southern Miss -6 (1 unit) WINNER

UCF ML +100 (2 units) WINNER

Indiana +19 (1 unit) LOSS

Wake Forrest +9 (2 units) WINNER

Purdue +3.5 (2 units) (WINNER)

Minnesota -1 (1 unit) (WINNER)

Tennessee +6 (1 unit) LOSS

Auburn -7 2nd H (1/2 unit) (LOSS)

Utah -11.5 (1 unit) WINNER

This week:
Louisville -5.5 (LOSS)
Toledo/NIU UNder 54.5 (WINNER)
UTEP +2 (WINNER)

Current Leans:

Vandy ML +111
California -13.5


Will add more leans and thoughts as the week progresses. I will leave this first window for plays, and put any writeups or analysis later on. Good luck guys, let's have a big week.
no-no.gif
 
Last edited:
Just played Southern Miss -6 at Tulane. Southern Miss played just as I thought last week, and I expect them to keep it up this week against the Green Wave. Tulane just got shelacked at Marshall and may have thrown in the towel for the year. Southern Miss beat down Tulane by 19 last year, and with bowl hopes one win away, I think they can cover the 6.
 
Added:

UCF ML +100

Decided to add this now, as I suspect UCF to be slight favorite or at worst pick when this game rolls around. This Memphis team has quit, bottom line. I think UCf should be the -1.5 pt favorite in this one.

*Line value: Power Ratings show UCF should be a 4 point favorite here.

*Let's look at UCF's road games (only 3)

*Played at FLA, lost 42-0. Not a surprise.

*Played at Marshall, won SU as a dog.

*Played at Houston, lost 31-51 as 16.5 pt dogs. This is a VERY deceptive non-cover, though. This game was actually TIED at the begging of the 4th quarter! But with 2 fumbled and 2 interceptions, UCF gave away the game late, to blow the win AND the cover.

*Last year, UCF beat Memphis at home 38-17, and Memphis had DeAngelo Williams then.

Memphis is in shambles and wants this season OVER with. UCF wins this one by 10.
 
Added:

Indiana +19

Many, many cappers I respect are on this one. Straight tail. Think Indiana has the offense to keep up with Michigan, who has trouble covering as of late.

UTEP +1

QB play much better for UTEP squad. Plus UTEP playing with revenge from last year, and 2 wins away from bowl eligibility. They should take this one.
 
ADDED:

Wake Forrest +8.5


Surprised more people are not talking about this one. Sagarin rankings have Wake as a -4 pt favorite! I think that's a good place to start, but then we need to decide if those are numbers we can accept, so where we go:

What has FSU done to mandate being a TD and Triple Hook favorite here? They've been chalk at home every game this season, and have only covered against the lowlies: Rice and Virginia. The funny thing is that I saw many on them for the other ones: it just doesn't seem like Free Shoes U is living up to public perception, and that's why I love this line.

What about Wake? All I hear is overrated, overrated, overrated, but the fact of the matter is that Wake has not only covered as a dog on the road, but won SU all three times they were a dog. Their last road game they won by 7 as -8 pt. favorites, so big deal there.

Another thing I like about the Deacons is that they protect the ball on the road. There is nothing worse than losing a fumble or throwing and INT and getting down on the road early, but they don't do that. In their 4 road games, Wake has thrown 0, yes, no interceptions and they've only lost 2 fumbles. This kind of discipline is enormous on the road.

Finally, Wake just plays good Ole D on the road, giving up only 14 points a game.

Don't say I didn't warn ya, Wake loses late in the 4th in this one!
 
RambleOn said:
ADDED:

Wake Forrest +8.5
Click to expand...

I am warming up top this one. I am scared that they keep winning games where they get outgained in yardage. It is remarkable!! Can FSU cover an 8.5 spread at home? I don't like the public 63% on a line that is so far off from where the power ratings have it. I am surprised the books haven't moved it down to take even action.

http://twominutewarning.com/xxbet.htm
 
I'm telling you, everyone loves FSU! I've seen many people bet them at home this year, and they just don't cover as chalk at home. Couple that with the fact that Wake is a LIVE LIVE LIVE away dog, and you've got a winner in the Demon Deacons!
 
ADDED:

Purdue +3

Have seen some on Illinois, but I don't get it. I think Purdue shoudl be the favorite here. How can Illy give up 3 when they haven't even won a game? Okay, I think they won 1 at home. Anyway, give me the better QB and more talented squad gettin 3.

Minny -2

Took this for the pure fact that I think Michigan St is done, and Minny still has some life. We saw a spark last game against an Indiana team that everyone loved. I'll take a chance here than Minny is playing for pride.
 
Thanks Yanks.

ADDED:

Tennessee +6

Final addition of the day. Waited to see if Rexy liked Tenny all week, because I've been about a sec. away from addin them. He's on em so I'm gonna pull the trigger. Very good chance of a SU win, but I'll take 6.
 
Funny thing is, the two tails on sides I lost, otherwise I kick some serious ass. Fuckin Indi and Tenny!
 
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