NFL
LAST - [1-1 +1.76u]
2021 - [96-86 -1.87u]
SUNDAY:
- 5.25/5 BROWNS -12½ -105
- 5.25/5 49ERS -6½ -105
- 5.20/5 DOLPHINS -3½ -104
- 5.35/5 DOLPHINS / JETS UNDER 45 -107
- 4.60/4 FOOTBALL TEAM +3½ -115
- 2/3.10 FOOTBALL TEAM +155
- 5.25/5 RAVENS / BEARS UNDER 44 -105
- 5.55/5 SAINTS +3 -111
- 5.25/5 SAINTS / EAGLES UNDER 42½ -105
- 5/5.15 VIKINGS +103
- 5.25/5 PACKERS / VIKINGS OVER 47 -105
- 5.25/5 BENGALS -1 -105
- 5.25/5 SEAHAWKS -2½ -105
- 5.20/5 CARDINALS / SEAHAWKS OVER 46 -104
Pend; PIT U
randoms...
OVER LAST 5 WEEKS THE UNDERS ARE 40-29 58% AND THE GAMES HAVE ONLY AVG'D 44 PPG!
- Miami by DD ...The record shows 3-7 for Miami. But the arrow is pointing up for the Fish. They have a reasonable path of reaching .500 with their next four games vs the Jets here followed by home games with CAR, NYG and Jets again. The Dolphins are on extra rest. Their confidence is at its highest peak this season having soundly defeated the Ravens last Thursday. Miami limited the Ravens to 94 yards rushing. That was Baltimore’s second-lowest rushing output in four years. The Ravens managed only 10 points, the second-fewest they’ve ever scored with Lamar Jackson starting. The Jets have a far worse offense than Baltimore with serious quarterback concerns. Mike White has been exposed as a fraud. Zach Wilson still may not be 100 percent. He’s been overmatched and lacks chemistry with his wideouts. Joe Flacco has been washed-up for years. Whoever is the QB behind a weak offensive line can expect heavy blitzing from MIA. The Dolphins are among the NFL leaders in QBs hit and takeaways. Worse for the Jets is their defense has collapsed in the wake of injuries to many key defenders, including star safety Marcus Maye who’s out for the year with an Achilles injury. The Flyboys already lacked a deep defensive roster at the start of the season. Injuries have thinned it out even more. NY has surrendered 175 points in L4 games, an average of 43.7. So it’s no surprise the Jets have allowed the most points and yards in the NFL. They're also 2nd-to-last in pass defense setting up a dream matchup for the improving Tua Tagovailoa. MIAMI by alot!
- The Seahawks were goose-egged in GB and the Cards were 10-pointed by Carolina. ‘Oh, my God! Defensive global warming! Defenses are hot once again and prepared to dominate in the NFL! Let’s all overreact and pound the Under!’ Well... no. There were reasons for 17-0 and 34-10 against these guys. The reasons include Russell Wilson rust, and Colt McCoy playing QB for Arizona, not Kyler Murray, while WR DeAndre Hopkins didn’t play for AZ. Also, the opponents had pretty good defenses. Green Bay’s has sold out against giving up big plays, and Carolina’s is just darned good, having recently been sabotaged by Sam Darnold and his turnovers that masked the true Panthers’ defense.
This scatter chart plots the average margin against the Total of every NFL team for each full season since 2009.
As you can see, the gravitational laws that rule such things over the course of individual seasons keeps the teams in a cluster that for the most part, ranges in between -5 and +8 vs. the Total per game, with a few teams hanging outside that zone but not above or below +10 or -10. There is one exception, or outlier: the 2021 Seattle Seahawks. Look at them out there all by themselves, so far under the bar. Almost makes you sad. Definitely makes Jim Nantz sad.
But Wilson can probably have a more representative game in his 2nd try back from an injury layoff. The Seahawks have had three Geno Smith-QB’d games plus Wilson’s stinker in their L4. The Cards’ D has faced HOU rookie QB Davis Mills, Aaron Rodgers without WRs Alan Lazard and Devante Adams, the 49ers’ ho-hum passing game, and P.J. Walker with Cam Newton tossed in at the goal line in their most recent four games. There is talk about Seattle’s defense – maligned last season and allowing big yardage early on in 2021 – has tightened up recently. But the unit’s L4 have been vs PIT’s snore of an offense, NO trying to run the ball as much as possible to avoid Winston’s 50% completion rate and turnovers, the rookie JAX QB, and the Packers when Rodgers had no practice for almost two weeks going in.
It would be surprising if Murray missed another NFC West game. Although Hopkins will probably miss it, A.J. Green returned from a virus-enforced absence against the Panthers and is good to go still. Christian Kirk, A.J. Green and Rondale Moore still comprise a formidable receiving trio. SEATTLE, 30-24.
- Washington Football Team +3½ ...An interesting case study in NFL linemaking. The advance line was Panthers -2 last week. In the meantime, Cam Newton returned and combined with P.J. Walker to upset the Cardinals 34-10 as McCaffrey did his thing and the defense looked like it did early in the season (albeit against Colt McCoy). WAS was arguably more impressive in a 29-19 upset of the Buccaneers as its defense looked more like it did last season despite losing Chase Young to injury. Yet, after all that (and the announcement that Newton would start this Sunday), the line is now up to Panthers -3½. I just don't see it. In fact, I like the other side with The Football Team. Heinicke has been serviceable and now doesn’t have to look over his shoulder as Ryan Fitzpatrick is now out for the season. And if Ron Rivera could coach up the defense to shut down Tom Brady and Co., I’m assuming he can contain Newton, his former protégé. Taking point but I actually see a SU WAS win here today.
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there was only 7 points scored in the 2H vs the Boys. Lot's of folks backing ATL and I really can't see it. When NE gets hot, they typically roll on, see their 76-40 ATS record after winning 4 of 5 over the last 20+ years. ATL hasn't cashed a ticket at home yet this season and are 1-9 ATS @home after being blown out > 24 points.
