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Week 11 ~ 2020

mrpickem

mrpickem

SDQL Badass Stat Boss
​
SATURDAY - [18-9 +16.42u]
WEEK 10 - [19-16 +3.75u]
SEASON - [54-66 -45.41u]​
  • 109 Kent State -20½ -107 vs Bowling Green
    3/2.8
  • 109 Kent State/Bowling Green Over 56 -105
    3/2.86
  • 111 Miami Ohio/Buffalo Over 56½ -105
    3/2.86

Finally had a good day Saturday and actually showed a profit for the week.

If you looks at all non-Saturday games not counting the bowls:
Including these conferences (B10, B12, MEAC, MAC, SWAC, OVC) since 2010 all games with totals of 58 or less have went over 56.1% (96-75-5) including 3-0-2 this year
1605041998249.png
If you omit the same conferences since 2010 and total <=58 the over actually cashed 59.7% (10-5 under this year)
1605041911487.png


6rmgczu3dey51.jpg
 
​
Yesterday [2-1 +2.66u]​
  • 115 Central Michigan -9 -105 vs Northern Illinois
    3/2.86
  • 119 Toledo/Western Michigan Under 58 -107
    3/2.8

145500.jpg
 
​
adding...​
  • 117 Eastern Michigan +9 -105 vs Ball State
    3/2.86
  • 120 Western Michigan -132 vs Toledo
    3/2.27

OU/Akron was a slow snooze fest that relied heavy on the ground game w/both teams combining for 75+ runs and 50%+ plays being runs. This game should be a little more exciting. I'm going to ride with the GOAT Preston Hutchinson QB1 for EMU to cover in this one. He has the ability to attack Ball State's glaring weakness, covering the passing game. After watching both these teams play last week I feel confident that PHutch will be able to move the ball and spread this defense out. He was hitting balls over 15 yards on a consistent basis against Kent, now combine that with the fact that Ball state has a defense that ranks 105 in pass coverage and it's a recipe for the Road dogs. If he can remove his 2 INTs from last week I think EMU will compete to the end with a great shot at winning. Also the EMU defense that started off poor really picked it up in the 2nd half to give their offense a shot at winning. I'm also a huge fan of trends, duh, and in the last 5 seasons the road team has won this matchup 4 times. EMU has covered 70% of games when they are a road dog of 7 or more. PHutch is going to come back with a more poised and methodical game after shaking the dust off from last week. Let's fucking go with some MACtion
 
Yesterday - [3-1 +4.99u]
Week 11 - [5-2 +7.65u]​
  • 123 Colorado State +14 -105 vs Boise State
    1/.95
  • 123 Colorado State/Boise State Under 61½ -105
    1/.95

Although most people associate Boise with scoring a lot, in reality over 65% of their home games since 2010 have stayed under! :popcorn:

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There's a lot of trends for both teams that also favor the under Mr. P.

Under is 5-0 in Rams last 5 games after accumulating less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
Under is 10-1 in Rams last 11 vs. a team with a winning record.
Under is 8-1 in Rams last 9 games in November.
Under is 11-2 in Rams last 13 conference games.
Under is 5-1 in Rams last 6 games overall.
Under is 5-1 in Rams last 6 games after allowing more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
Under is 4-1 in Rams last 5 games following a ATS win.
Under is 4-1 in Rams last 5 games on fieldturf.
Under is 4-1 in Rams last 5 road games.
Under is 8-2 in Rams last 10 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Under is 10-4 in Rams last 14 games after allowing more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
Under is 5-2 in Rams last 7 games as an underdog.

Under is 4-0 in Broncos last 4 Thursday games.
Under is 7-1 in Broncos last 8 games after allowing more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
Under is 4-1 in Broncos last 5 games following a double-digit loss at home.
Over is 4-1 in Broncos last 5 games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game.
Under is 19-6-1 in Broncos last 26 games after accumulating less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
Under is 8-3 in Broncos last 11 games as a home favorite.
Under is 8-3 in Broncos last 11 games in November.
Under is 25-11 in Broncos last 36 home games.
Under is 15-7 in Broncos last 22 games on fieldturf.

Good luck...
 
Last night - [0-2 -2u]

Friday action...
  • 125 Florida Atlantic -10 -105 vs Florida International
    2/1.9
  • 125 Florida Atlantic -6 -105 vs Florida International for 1st Half
    2/1.9
  • 125 Florida Atlantic/Florida International Under 41 -102
    2/1.96
  • 127 Iowa -3½ -105 vs Minnesota
    2/1.9
  • 129 East Carolina/Cincinnati Under 55 -102
    2/1.96
9wve5bjb72x41.jpg
 
Decent night last night plus hit my parlay at the casino, got a free steak and only contributed 2 bells on the tables. ;)

Friday - [3-2 +1.71u]
Week 11 - [8-6 +7.36u]

Saturday action...a cool 25 plays
  1. 139 Vanderbilt +18 -108 vs Kentucky
    2/1.85
  2. 139 Vanderbilt/Kentucky Under 41½ -103
    2/1.94
  3. 141 TCU +3 +105 vs West Virginia
    2/2.1
  4. 141 TCU/West Virginia Under 45 -105
    2/1.9
  5. 147 Notre Dame/Boston College Over 51 -105
    1.05/1
  6. 148 Boston College +11½ -105 vs Notre Dame
    1.05/1
  7. 149 Wake Forest/North Carolina Under 69 -107
    2.11/1.97
  8. 151 Texas State +10½ -107 vs Georgia Southern
    2.09/1.95
  9. 155 Miami Florida +2½ -105 vs Virginia Tech
    2/1.9
  10. 157 Temple/Central Florida Under 76½ -105
    2/1.9
  11. 163 Indiana/Michigan State Under 52 -105
    2/1.9
  12. 169 Middle Tennessee State/Marshal Under 56 -105
    2/1.9
  13. 171 South Florida/Houston Under 57½ -105
    2/1.9
  14. 185 Oregon -10½ -105 vs Washington State
    2/1.9
  15. 185 Oregon/Washington State Under 57 -103
    2/1.94
  16. 189 UNLV +16 -108 vs San Jose State
    2/1.85
  17. 191 Hawaii/San Diego State Under 52 -105
    2.73/2.6
  18. 195 UTEP +6½ +105 vs UTSA
    2/2.1
  19. 197 Baylor/Texas Tech Under 55 -105
    1.05/1
  20. 203 Army/Tulane Under 45½ -103
    1.03/1
  21. 195 UTEP/UTSA Under 45 -105
    2/1.9
  22. 205 Penn State -3 -110 vs Nebraska
    2/1.82
  23. 207 SMU -1 -101 vs Tulsa
    2/1.98
  24. 221 Southern Mississippi +8 -107 vs Western Kentucky
    2.08/1.94
  25. 221 Southern Mississippi/Western Kentucky Under 46 -105
    2/1.9
 
mrpickem said:
Last night - [0-2 -2u]

Friday action...
  • 125 Florida Atlantic -10 -105 vs Florida International
    2/1.9
  • 125 Florida Atlantic -6 -105 vs Florida International for 1st Half
    2/1.9
  • 125 Florida Atlantic/Florida International Under 41 -102
    2/1.96
  • 127 Iowa -3½ -105 vs Minnesota
    2/1.9
  • 129 East Carolina/Cincinnati Under 55 -102
    2/1.96
9wve5bjb72x41.jpg
Click to expand...
decent night betting - this girl is fkng unreal
 
Here's a couple under trends that both point to Vandy and the under, I really like these spots as well...

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other tidbits...
  • Under is 7-2 in VAN last 9 games in November.
  • VAN are 5-13 ATS in their last 18 games overall.
  • Under is 18-4 in UK last 22 conference games.
  • UK are 4-12 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.
  • Under is 6-2 in the last 8 meetings.
 
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