WEEK 10

[bookieassassin]

leans

LIBERTY
MISS ST
MIZZOU
TROY
JMU
ODU
BOISE
FLA

Fla St
Fla
Va Tech
Memphis
UConn
Cuse
Kan St
CLT
Fresno
Houston
Vandy
Georgia
TT 1H
UTSA

Ariz St?
Indy?
USF?


Love this week - we have a CLEAR identity finally, on most ....
>> beware the teams that PTTLOTP (play to the level of their opponent) - some simply can't play on the road, or maybe at home - most want to make a bowl, while some cannot f'in wait for this crappy season to be over (hint: don't bet on these)



$$ Adjust for injuries / many QB's are ?


TUES 11/1

301 BALL ST
7:00 p.m.
302 KENT ST -3

303 BUFFALO -2'
7:00 p.m.
304 OHIO


WED 11/2

305 CENTRAL MICHIGAN
7:00 p.m.
306 NORTHERN ILLINOIS -4

307 WESTERN MICHIGAN
7:00 p.m.
308 BOWLING GREEN -3'


THURS 11/3

311 UTEP
7:00 p.m.
312 RICE -6

313 APPALACHIAN ST -5
7:30 p.m.
314 COASTAL CAROLINA

ALABAMA A&M -12
MISS VALLEY


FRI 11/4

315 DUKE -7
7:00 p.m.
316 BOSTON COLLEGE

317 MASSACHUSETTS
7:00 p.m.
318 CONNECTICUT -13'

ALCORN
PRAIRIE VIEW -6



SAT 11/5

321 AIR FORCE -8
11:30 a.m. Arlington
322 ARMY

323 NORTH CAROLINA -6'
12:00 p.m.
324 VIRGINIA

325 MICHIGAN -25
12:00 p.m.
326 RUTGERS

327 WAKE FOREST
12:00 p.m. P
328 NC STATE

329 FLORIDA ST -6'
12:00 p.m.
330 MIAMI, FL

331 GEORGIA TECH
12:00 p.m.
332 VIRGINIA TECH -6

333 IOWA
12:00 p.m.
334 PURDUE -5

335 PENN ST -18
12:00 p.m.
336 INDIANA
$$ JF 25% ATS off SU loss

337 JAMES MADISON
12:00 p.m.
338 LOUISVILLE -10

339 SYRACUSE
12:00 p.m. P
340 PITTSBURGH

341 OKLAHOMA ST -6'
12:00 p.m.
342 KANSAS

343 NAVY
12:00 p.m.
344 CINCINNATI -17

345 USF -4
12:00 p.m.
346 TEMPLE

347 MINNESOTA -8'
12:00 p.m.
348 NEBRASKA

349 MARSHALL -6
12:00 p.m.
350 OLD DOMINION

351 LIBERTY
12:00 p.m.
352 ARKANSAS -13

353 MICHIGAN ST
12:00 p.m.
354 ILLINOIS -6'

355 MARYLAND
12:00 p.m.
356 WISCONSIN -6

357 TEXAS -2
12:00 p.m.
358 KANSAS ST

359 BAYLOR
12:00 p.m.
360 OKLAHOMA -2

361 KENTUCKY -5
12:00 p.m.
362 MISSOURI

363 OHIO ST -38
12:00 p.m.
364 NORTHWESTERN

365 WKU -14 ?
12:00 p.m.
366 CHARLOTTE
$ raw numbers < HC fired - WKU -22
367 OREGON -32
2:00 p.m.
368 COLORADO

369 BYU
2:00 p.m.
370 BOISE ST -7

371 ARIZONA
2:00 p.m.
372 UTAH -22

373 COLORADO ST
3:00 p.m.
374 SAN JOSE ST -21

375 HAWAII
3:00 p.m.
376 FRESNO ST -28

377 WASHINGTON ST -2
3:00 p.m.
378 STANFORD

379 CALIFORNIA
3:00 p.m.
380 USC -21

381 MIDDLE TENNESSEE -4
3:00 p.m.
382 LOUISIANA TECH

383 UCLA -7
3:00 p.m.
384 ARIZONA ST

385 FLORIDA
3:30 p.m.
386 TEXAS A&M -7

387 TULANE -7
3:30 p.m.
388 TULSA

389 HOUSTON
3:30 p.m.
390 SMU -2

391 TROY -3
3:30 p.m.
392 LOUISIANA

393 GEORGIA ST
3:30 p.m.
394 SOUTHERN MISS -3

395 SOUTH CAROLINA -10
3:30 p.m.
396 VANDERBILT

397 AUBURN
3:30 p.m.
398 MISSISSIPPI ST -15

399 TENNESSEE
3:30 p.m.
400 GEORGIA -8
$ raw numbers < week 9 show a SOLID 10'

401 TEXAS TECH
3:30 p.m.
402 TCU -10

403 UCF -6
3:30 p.m.
404 MEMPHIS

405 WEST VIRGINIA
3:30 p.m.
406 IOWA ST -6'

407 NEW MEXICO
3:30 p.m.
408 UTAH ST -13

409 UTSA
3:30 p.m.
410 UAB -1

411 ALABAMA -13'
3:30 p.m.
412 LSU

413 FIU
4:00 p.m.
414 NORTH TEXAS -20

415 SOUTH ALABAMA -1'
4:00 p.m.
416 GEORGIA SOUTHERN

417 TEXAS ST
5:00 p.m. P
418 ULM

419 UNLV
7:00 p.m.
420 SAN DIEGO ST -5

421 CLEMSON -7
7:30 p.m.
422 NOTRE DAME



BOL boys - back later today ............. :shake:

 

[bookieassassin]

gonna lock these from MB in small .... might add to 'em later


JMU +10
Liberty +14
Clt +17
Ariz St +10
S Miss -2'
Miss St -11'
Clemson -3'

 

[satnightfever05]

Surprised to see you lean Mizzou here. Tennessee just elite this year- no shame in that L by UK. Tigers of road W vs ranked team. Situation seems UK or nothing. But at under a FG, big lean to the Cats here

 

[bookieassassin]

Surprised to see you lean Mizzou here. Tennessee just elite this year- no shame in that L by UK. Tigers of road W vs ranked team. Situation seems UK or nothing. But at under a FG, big lean to the Cats here

hey man - tough to bounce back off a beatdown like that, plus lost 3/4 - Mizzou playing with confidence, and on the UPswing ... so don't expect a letdown off big W.
>> A N D - Stoops is the 2nd worst coach in CFB in preparing his team off a loss (35% ats or so / Franklin #at 25%) . That said, this one is one of many weird lines this week - < week 9 line woulda been 6'/7 - here should be 4/5 maybe - now 1' ?. Kentucky play or Mizzou ML.

 

[satnightfever05]

Why has Kent steamed to 7? They are still a shell of what they were last year. And Ball St has some success throwing the ball.

I also know it’s a matter of time before you give us the Ohio +3 play

 

[bookieassassin]

bumped up Liberty - added a few

Liberty +14

Okie St -2
Texas -2'

smaller

JMU +10
Clt +17
Ariz St +10
S Miss -2'
Miss St -11'
Clemson -3'

App St -2'
Troy -4'
Houston +3

Why has Kent steamed to 7? They are still a shell of what they were last year. And Ball St has some success throwing the ball.

I also know it’s a matter of time before you give us the Ohio +3 play

Got me .... plus Flashes are 0-4 ats in MAC play / missing cover by 9.5/game
>> BSU 6-1/5-2 on MAC rd ..... home team in series is 7-0 su / 5-2 ats

They roll in with #128 D (SP+) - and roll up a ton of yards, but struggle closing the deal - #114 in yards per point margin. Their run D is fine / pass D is TURRIBLE. If BSU played slower, and had a better passing QB I might back them here - but they play faster than KSU - so if they can't move the chains this one could get away from them. In-game / 2H play on KSU or the OVER for me.


Buffalo / Ohio

Can't go against a red hot Buffalo here - 5-0 su/ats in MAC play, covering by 14 pts/g!
>> BUT Ohio is 4-0 ats by 12pts/g as well ....... home team in series is 10-1 / 9-2

Buff D is weak statistically - allowing huge plays on early downs, but create havoc and can disrupt what the O likes to do. Ohio with a solid QB edge / but maybe nation's worst DB's (coverage and tackling) - run D not bad / defensive front a bit disruptive too. Note Buffalo is #16 in yppt margin - Ohio is #43. Buffs with a sizeable ST edge too (#41 - #106)

No doubt my 1st look would be to the weekday home dog - not here tho ..... Live/2H - I'll play either to come back if down, and or the over after a slow start - Buff will have trouble containing Ohio QB

 

[bookieassassin]

TGOTTPMT
* the greatness of the 10 pt maction teaser

Kent State +3

BSU/KSU Over 52.5

Buffalo +7.5

 

[bookieassassin]

Small

Buffalo+15' live

 

[bookieassassin]

Bumped up Clemson -3 - juiced
Added New Mexico +16 smaller

 

[winners41]

Bumped up Clemson -3 - juiced
Added New Mexico +16 smaller

winners here!!!! need your top # SIR!!! PLEASE ADVISE!! ONE GAME BY YOU IS EVEN GOOD ENOUGH, for TREMENDO play!

 

[Yanks27Sox9]

wiht you on Texas and Clemson :shake:

 

[spottie2935]

New Mexico +16 :shake:

 

[bookieassassin]

small play at MB - juiced slightly

Rice / UTEP over 22'

Rice D in the 2H - fades in a huge way

>> D - pts allowed #128
rush and pass D much worse (61% > 64% / 7 TD/6 INT > 11 TD / 0 INT)

UTEP - improves 2H
>> rush O 3.0 > 5.0
D does tighten up slightly - but Rice O slightly better too

If you can't get anything under 24 , UTEP TT over maybe better

 

[bookieassassin]

YANKS - good man BOL .......... :shake:

Spottie - yep forgot about that one - may bump that up - way too high .......:shake:

PL - whaddya mean man - you want me to narrow this down to a few play ha? ....:cowboy:
$ okey dokey I'll work on it

 

[Wolfeman]

New Mexico +16 :shake:

YANKS - good man BOL .......... :shake:

Spottie - yep forgot about that one - may bump that up - way too high .......:shake:

PL - whaddya mean man - you want me to narrow this down to a few play ha? ....:cowboy:
$ okey dokey I'll work on it

Lol where are you finding these emoji dudes? That blonde had me worked up. And you know by know PL is Cryptic…lol. Let’s have another weekend of punching the Book in the gut! Really like that Okie St rebound. Kansas exposed, time for NCAAB for the Jayhawks. WM now hitting at that ever elusive 56-50, winning $ record. Appreciate you & your help last two weeks!!

Been fortunate with 1st/2nd half plays with your guidance on the games. TOP NOTCH.

 

[bookieassassin]

winners here!!!! need your top # SIR!!! PLEASE ADVISE!! ONE GAME BY YOU IS EVEN GOOD ENOUGH, for TREMENDO play!

awright man here's a GTTH 5 (gun to the head)
* I'll pretend Luca Brasi is right outside my door - waiting for your orders ha


Clemson -3 (bit less if more)
Texas <3
Liberty +14'
Okie St +1
WF -3' (maybe wait for a juiced 3)'

maybe.....
JMU +7' +
UTSA +1/P
New Mex + 14' +
TTech at 10 (maybe wait - late)
Boise at 7

Note some I'm waiting for a better # - haven't posted. Had to back off several strong leans, as number shot to hell - and will play ML maybe.
* Mizzou .....Fla .....ODU....MEMPHIS


LIBERTY - these boys play to opponents level, and are a fantastic dog.
$$ Last 10 games as a dog - they've won 7 outright and have COVERED by 148 POINTS - (9-1 ats)
>> off a bye - with a HC, that no doubt is ready to go back to the SEC ... so this is an audition kinda sorta.

Hogs have played well in this spot- but have bigger things on their mind (off Auburn with LSU on deck). Note they did almost get their ass beat earlier this vs FCS Mizzou St and Bobby Petrino - had to score 21 in the 4Q just to win. Liberty is getting healthy (#1 QB might be ready) - even if the Hogs show up this one should be close IMO. BOL this weekend buddy - I'm busy and might not be around much ..........:cheers3:

 

[bookieassassin]

Lol where are you finding these emoji dudes? That blonde had me worked up. And you know by know PL is Cryptic…lol. Let’s have another weekend of punching the Book in the gut! Really like that Okie St rebound. Kansas exposed, time for NCAAB for the Jayhawks. WM now hitting at that ever elusive 56-50, winning $ record. Appreciate you & your help last two weeks!!

Been fortunate with 1st/2nd half plays with your guidance on the games. TOP NOTCH.

hit the 3 dots in toolbar or whatever you call it ha - you might have to hit preview 1st, can't remember.
>> on a decent run ..... hope to keep it up thru title game - this week I've gone back and forth on too many tho .....
BOL buddy ................:assshake:

 

[2dawgnation2]

Great week ahead BA—value your insights, as always. Any thoughts on UGA/UT? I see arguments for both sides—markets early draw is UT + points…but I know you filter a lot more then most.

And Charlotte getting +16 at home—they can score enough to win with +16..

What about the service academies? Under total and take the Dog…isn’t that the rule of them here?

Thanks again boss man

 

[Wolfeman]

Luca Brasi that’s fantastic… lol
And the Ladies call him Puppy Love. He’s a man of distinction, 3 ladies at a time and never says no to the rusty Trombone…Winners hunts the best # like no other…in fact, U better axe somebody bout Winners 1941. BA - I’m deep diving that WF play… cherry imo.

 

[Wolfeman]

Great week ahead BA—value your insights, as always. Any thoughts on UGA/UT? I see arguments for both sides—markets early draw is UT + points…but I know you filter a lot more then most.

And Charlotte getting +16 at home—they can score enough to win with +16..

What about the service academies? Under total and take the Dog…isn’t that the rule of them here?

Thanks again boss man

I agree with 2 DawgNation…that CLT ML will be mixed in a pizza dinner parlay with maybe Arizona St for me. New Mexico, JMU another couple darts worth major value in 2 team parlays
That UGA vs Ten (great seeing vols back!) has GOY potential!

Have another profitable week Brotha, as your due diligence is like no other… Wolfeman howling arrrrooooRRRooooo.

 

[winners41]

awright man here's a GTTH 5 (gun to the head)
* I'll pretend Luca Brasi is right outside my door - waiting for your orders ha


Clemson -3 (bit less if more)
Texas <3
Liberty +14'
Okie St +1
WF -3' (maybe wait for a juiced 3)'

maybe.....
JMU +7' +
UTSA +1/P
New Mex + 14' +
TTech at 10 (maybe wait - late)
Boise at 7

Note some I'm waiting for a better # - haven't posted. Had to back off several strong leans, as number shot to hell - and will play ML maybe.
* Mizzou .....Fla .....ODU....MEMPHIS


LIBERTY - these boys play to opponents level, and are a fantastic dog.
$$ Last 10 games as a dog - they've won 7 outright and have COVERED by 148 POINTS - (9-1 ats)
>> off a bye - with a HC, that no doubt is ready to go back to the SEC ... so this is an audition kinda sorta.

Hogs have played well in this spot- but have bigger things on their mind (off Auburn with LSU on deck). Note they did almost get their ass beat earlier this vs FCS Mizzou St and Bobby Petrino - had to score 21 in the 4Q just to win. Liberty is getting healthy (#1 QB might be ready) - even if the Hogs show up this one should be close IMO. BOL this weekend buddy - I'm busy and might not be around much ..........:cheers3:

TREMENDO B.A. and wolfe too! that is a pair that beats a full house, honestly ,and I love that you mention me in your great "posts", this is "wwinners " and hopefully will get that issue resolver from my "puppylove"!! I am grateful for your response...absolutely you are so far in front of what is the next ranking, that the "rest is totally lonely"!!! let us win,,,,tremendo ...thank you SIR, SIRS!

 

[winners41]

TREMENDO B.A. and wolfe too! that is a pair that beats a full house, honestly ,and I love that you mention me in your great "posts", this is "wwinners " and hopefully will get that issue resolver from my "puppylove"!! I am grateful for your response...absolutely you are so far in front of what is the next ranking, that the "rest is totally lonely"!!! let us win,,,,tremendo ...thank you SIR, SIRS!

the rest is so far behind they "ARE LONELY", in other words.... "luca"

 

[bookieassassin]

small dart ....

Beavs +10' / over 48

 

[bookieassassin]

Bumping up JMU +7' - half unit on 10 opener

$ JMU QB should be ready

 

[satnightfever05]

awright man here's a GTTH 5 (gun to the head)
* I'll pretend Luca Brasi is right outside my door - waiting for your orders ha


Clemson -3 (bit less if more)
Texas <3
Liberty +14'
Okie St +1
WF -3' (maybe wait for a juiced 3)'

maybe.....
JMU +7' +
UTSA +1/P
New Mex + 14' +
TTech at 10 (maybe wait - late)
Boise at 7

Note some I'm waiting for a better # - haven't posted. Had to back off several strong leans, as number shot to hell - and will play ML maybe.
* Mizzou .....Fla .....ODU....MEMPHIS


LIBERTY - these boys play to opponents level, and are a fantastic dog.
$$ Last 10 games as a dog - they've won 7 outright and have COVERED by 148 POINTS - (9-1 ats)
>> off a bye - with a HC, that no doubt is ready to go back to the SEC ... so this is an audition kinda sorta.

Hogs have played well in this spot- but have bigger things on their mind (off Auburn with LSU on deck). Note they did almost get their ass beat earlier this vs FCS Mizzou St and Bobby Petrino - had to score 21 in the 4Q just to win. Liberty is getting healthy (#1 QB might be ready) - even if the Hogs show up this one should be close IMO. BOL this weekend buddy - I'm busy and might not be around much ..........:cheers3:

I can't believe Gundy is now a dog at KU.. I thank the books for the free point
Kentucky ML at -105 was too good to pass up.. if Tigers rock em, so be it...
on Clemson and Texas too
on UAB with Hopkins back- if their backup was playing, it'd be with you on UTSA

ODU appeals to me too.. line keeps climbing- if it hits 4, I'll prob bite

Tulsa is appealing to me as sneaky home dog that usually covers, but Green Wave on a tear here (but is hosting UCF next week)

La Tech needs a W in the worst way too, but maybe Mid tenn isnt as bad as we think? have really only lost to quality teams and that Tech D is pathetic

GL!

 

[bookieassassin]

added a few - Hokies (juiced) are a fade GT play really - rallied with the interim, then lost to Virginia, then at FSU - won't rally here. WF I'll actually wait a bit for a 2' (late game)

91-69 so far - 27-12 last 2 weeks

one unit or so

Liberty +14'
Okie St -2
Texas -2'
Clemson -3
JMU +7'/10
WF -3
Va Tech -3


smaller

Clt +17
Ariz St +10
S Miss -2'
Miss St -11'
App St -2'
Troy -4'
Houston +3
Buffalo +15' live
New Mex +16
UTEP/Rice 2H over 22'
Memphis +3'


leans

AF
Wisky
Fla St
Boise
Mizzou
Fla
Georgia
TTech
UTSA


ML DOGS
$ not bad lately 13-8 last 3 weeks / 4-2 last week

Iowa
ODU
CLT
Houston
Memphis



BOL today boys ...........:shake:

 

[winners41]

added a few - Hokies (juiced) are a fade GT play really - rallied with the interim, then lost to Virginia, then at FSU - won't rally here. WF I'll actually wait a bit for a 2' (late game)

91-69 so far - 27-12 last 2 weeks

one unit or so

Liberty +14'
Okie St -2
Texas -2'
Clemson -3
JMU +7'/10
WF -3
Va Tech -3


smaller

Clt +17
Ariz St +10
S Miss -2'
Miss St -11'
App St -2'
Troy -4'
Houston +3
Buffalo +15' live
New Mex +16
UTEP/Rice 2H over 22'
Memphis +3'


leans

AF
Wisky
Fla St
Boise
Mizzou
Fla
Georgia
TTech
UTSA


ML DOGS
$ not bad lately 13-8 last 3 weeks / 4-2 last week

Iowa
ODU
CLT
Houston
Memphis



BOL today boys ...........:shake:

thank you B.A. !!! TREMENDO!!! winners ... right here with you

 

[bookieassassin]

Great week ahead BA—value your insights, as always. Any thoughts on UGA/UT? I see arguments for both sides—markets early draw is UT + points…but I know you filter a lot more then most.

And Charlotte getting +16 at home—they can score enough to win with +16..

What about the service academies? Under total and take the Dog…isn’t that the rule of them here?

Thanks again boss man

wassup buddy hope all is well

Ga/Tenn

BIG PICTURE question ..... has Georgia (really) given their best effort this year so far? (Ducks notwithstanding) If you think they have - take the Vols and the points. I don't - they should step up their game here. Dawgs should be able to move the chains - on D play man / hit HH. Dropping back into a passive zone like Bama won't work - Pitt showed them the way - press/quarters - Georgia can do it with better players. I was waiting for a late crazy rush on Tenn, for a 7 - didn't happen so I'll pass.

Army/AF - holy crap already started haha (just woke up) - trends or analytics? - Data says AF and OVER - ain't gonna go against that trend freight train so pass for me. Key here is the Army D is horrible - I can't tell if they will be better here or not - AF really can't be trusted really.....

CLT is a leap of faith play (off 48 point cover) - will they continue to play hard? vs (overrated WKU). IMO Rice ain't the kind of team to lay down (NEED that W) - so I think they do.........BUT yes < week 9 - line woulda be 23/24. :shake:

 

[bookieassassin]

I can't believe Gundy is now a dog at KU.. I thank the books for the free point
Kentucky ML at -105 was too good to pass up.. if Tigers rock em, so be it...
on Clemson and Texas too
on UAB with Hopkins back- if their backup was playing, it'd be with you on UTSA

ODU appeals to me too.. line keeps climbing- if it hits 4, I'll prob bite

Tulsa is appealing to me as sneaky home dog that usually covers, but Green Wave on a tear here (but is hosting UCF next week)

La Tech needs a W in the worst way too, but maybe Mid tenn isnt as bad as we think? have really only lost to quality teams and that Tech D is pathetic

GL!

yep it's like Okie St is just gonna no show here (again). Kansas (could) win sure but line would be at least 7 with a healthy OSU.

Mizzou is P, or -1 now = ridiculous line

Like UTSA - much better HC and QB - tough ass team ......look for 2H play

Tulsa QB situation probably makes this one a pass for me

LT QB issues - IF #1 can go its worth several points -

BOL man

 

[bookieassassin]

Houston -3 2H .....juiced

great 2H team vs bad one in SMU

 

[spottie2935]

New Mexico +16 :shake:

bad beat my bad :beat: