Week 10

[Capaholic]

YTD 33-24-2 57.6% +12.73u


Feeling good. Played so far during the week

Cleveland -3 (-120)
Rams -1 (-113) (2u- first 2u play of the year)
Buffalo +8.5/Chargers +7.5 6 pt tease

More to come. Lean SF

Played Week 11

KC -7 (-125)

 

[Tin&Lint]

Cap - Can you elaborate on the 2u Rams play? Is it the bad spot for Sea, away after one of the longest road trips to Buf, with LA off bye? I can think of several factors that would lean in Seahawks direction:
1. Don’t trust Goff @ QB, except when scenario is perfect for him (which it might be here) ... Russ far better
2. Schottenheimer more aggressive play caller than McVay (although McVay aggressive with things like tempo)
3. Cupp & Henderson banged up, which puts more emphasis on Goff
4. Has felt like Sea D improving lately, albeit from rock bottom - tough one last week with 4 turnovers from the Off

Gotta love Fat Andy off a bye ...

 

[Lexington 125]

GL this week Cap! I like that tease, was thinking Bills/Ravens but Chargers play every game down to the wire. SF in the ultimate buy low spot & getting playmakers back offensively.



@Tin&Lint I know you didn't ask me but #4 is definitely NOT the case. That is about as bad a secondary as I've ever seen. Allen could have thrown 3 more tds last week (he actually threw 1 more that was ruled oob) had they not been up so big. The addition of Dunlap just means an extra 15 yd penalty at some point in the game. Watch Woods/Kupp & Reynolds all have td catches.

 

[Capaholic]

Cap - Can you elaborate on the 2u Rams play? Is it the bad spot for Sea, away after one of the longest road trips to Buf, with LA off bye? I can think of several factors that would lean in Seahawks direction:
1. Don’t trust Goff @ QB, except when scenario is perfect for him (which it might be here) ... Russ far better
2. Schottenheimer more aggressive play caller than McVay (although McVay aggressive with things like tempo)
3. Cupp & Henderson banged up, which puts more emphasis on Goff
4. Has felt like Sea D improving lately, albeit from rock bottom - tough one last week with 4 turnovers from the Off

Gotta love Fat Andy off a bye ...

Rams off bye. Two weeks to prepare for a very bad defense. McVay, while not as well rounded as the top echelon, is near the top offensively.

Rams undervalued in matchup. Last time out "manhandled" by Dolphins yet outgained Miami by 300 yards and 31 to 8 in first downs

Per Football Outsiders this will be the best defense Seattle has played this season. LA leads the league in opponent yards per play.

Bad spot for Seattle

Seattle last three games 6.1 yards per play allowed. Whole season 6.2 yards per play allowed. The improvement has not been measurable yet.

Sorry so choppy.. On the move

 

[UTSUX]

BOL

 

[C-MAN]

Like the Browns but wish I took it before it got to -4. Windy in Cleveland which favors the team with the better run game IMO.

 

[Capaholic]

Adding:

Carolina +6 (-113)
San Fran +10
Baltimore -7 (-102)

Said I would stay off Baltimore game but I cant help it. I can’t make a good case for why the Pats can stay within a TD against anyone good right now.

 

[wiseplayer]

GL Cap. Keep up the great work.

 

[Tin&Lint]

@Capaholic and @Lexington 125 Thanks for the commentary last week on Rams-Hawks. Good call Cap on the 2u play. You were right. Didn’t include on my posted picks, but tailed you on Rams despite initially leaning other way. These discussions are what this site is all about.

Tough loss for Ravens. I didn’t think of it or pick NE, but Ravens susceptible to run. They’re just usually ahead and other teams abandon the run. Was ready to pounce on Ravens to bounce back this week, but they get Titans & Henry. Only teams left for Ravens to take advantage of run against them are Titans & Browns. Stefanski smart enough to stick with run; Titans too dumb to consider being aggressive.

GL this week