122 Tennessee Titans +1 -105 vs Indianapolis Colts 3/2.86
I was expecting Titans to be -3 at the minimum. After seeing them move to +1 I was surprised to say the least. I thought it may be a trap with most of the public on Titans, but most of the money is actually on the Colts and looking at some people’s analysis of the game and statistics favoring Colts to win got me even more confident. I'm not fading the public, this was my side from the start. Tenny is playing very good right now with a respectable 4-1 home record vs a tight Colts defense which are 2-2 on the road. Colts supporters will say Titans had easy schedule so far, but the same can be said for the Colts... which makes their defensive stats heavily inflated. I’m taking Tannehill over Rivers at +1 and even though I considered ML at only 8 cent difference it wasnt worth it. (+1 -105 to +103 ML)
This is a huge matchup that could end up pivotal in deciding the divisional champ. I'm also riding with Ryan fucking Tannehill. Tannehill has been a near legend for the Titans since being named starter and he radiates Big Dick Energy. I know TEN is a run heavy team and IND has an good defense but Tannehill has thrown 2 TDs in his last 5 games and 2Tds in all but one game so far this season and has thrown 2Tds in 16 of his 18 total starts in Tennessee. He's done it against stout defenses like the Bears and Steelers who likely have a better D than IND this season. He has great weapons at WR/TE in AJ Brown, Corey Davis, Jonnu Smith and they will most likely need the TD's to win. Earlier in the week the 1.5 was only -130 but even at -160 I love the play.
121 Indianapolis Colts/Tennessee Titans Over 49 -102
3/2.94
122 Tennessee Titans +1½ -109 vs Indianapolis Colts 1/.92
122 Tennessee Titans +108 vs Indianapolis Colts 1/1.08
This season:
-Titans are tied for the lead in ATS % at 6-2 75%
-Titans trail only SEA in red zone percentage scored at 79.3%
-Tannehill is the #6 rated QB for 2020 so far at 109.4 (19 TD / 3 INT / 8.7 YPA)
-Rivers is the the $24 rated QB at 91.9 (10 TD / 7 INT / 7.2 YPA)
-Derek Henry leads the league in rushing by over 250 yards and averages 4.6 YPC
So in my mind I really feel pretty strong on the Titans. We know this is the NFL and anything can happen but I'm gonna add a little
Home teams in divisional matchups when line within 3 of pick are 72.7% over last 3+ years
Raiders good offense (12th) / bad D (31st), DEN good D (10th) bad offense (30th) made worse if Jeudy is out. These equal out, but in the modern NFL you have to take the better offense most of the time. Raiders more likely to score early and often although I could see garbage time scoring from Broncos late, so 1H and over for me
Of all regular season games lined >=11 over last 7+ season, the favorite has cashed 62.8% and the under has cashed 58.8% (5-3-1 ats & 6-3 under this season)
276 Chicago Bears +3 +110 vs Minnesota Vikings 2/2.2
276 Chicago Bears +160 vs Minnesota Vikings 1/1.6
275 Minnesota Vikings/Chicago Bears Under 43½ -105
3/2.86
275 Minnesota Vikings Under 23 -110 vs Chicago Bears 3/2.73
I really like this CHI D a lot, it's the main reason the bears have hopes at the playoffs. I know the Vikings have hit over this total every single game but the other games came against GB, TEN, DET, ATL and SEA...all of which have not shown to be a top tier defense like da bears. CHI only allows 21 ppg and have also done it against some of the best scoring offenses: NO, TB and ATL; holding them all under 26 so I think they can hold an offense inferior in comparison under that 23. Cousins on the road in prime time + an awesome bears D at home should help keep these Vikings under 23 for the night.
