Week 10

[mrpickem]

​	Week 10 - [8-11 -13.3u] Season - [61-77 -38.81u]​
	5863 R.Tannehill TD passes Over 1½ -160 2.4/1.5 122 Tennessee Titans +1 -105 vs Indianapolis Colts 3/2.86

I was expecting Titans to be -3 at the minimum. After seeing them move to +1 I was surprised to say the least. I thought it may be a trap with most of the public on Titans, but most of the money is actually on the Colts and looking at some people’s analysis of the game and statistics favoring Colts to win got me even more confident. I'm not fading the public, this was my side from the start. Tenny is playing very good right now with a respectable 4-1 home record vs a tight Colts defense which are 2-2 on the road. Colts supporters will say Titans had easy schedule so far, but the same can be said for the Colts... which makes their defensive stats heavily inflated. I’m taking Tannehill over Rivers at +1 and even though I considered ML at only 8 cent difference it wasnt worth it. (+1 -105 to +103 ML)

This is a huge matchup that could end up pivotal in deciding the divisional champ. I'm also riding with Ryan fucking Tannehill. Tannehill has been a near legend for the Titans since being named starter and he radiates Big Dick Energy. I know TEN is a run heavy team and IND has an good defense but Tannehill has thrown 2 TDs in his last 5 games and 2Tds in all but one game so far this season and has thrown 2Tds in 16 of his 18 total starts in Tennessee. He's done it against stout defenses like the Bears and Steelers who likely have a better D than IND this season. He has great weapons at WR/TE in AJ Brown, Corey Davis, Jonnu Smith and they will most likely need the TD's to win. Earlier in the week the 1.5 was only -130 but even at -160 I love the play.

 

[B.A.R.]

I like that play Mista

Good luck

 

[mrpickem]

​	adding a little...​
	121 Indianapolis Colts/Tennessee Titans Over 49 -102 3/2.94 122 Tennessee Titans +1½ -109 vs Indianapolis Colts 1/.92 122 Tennessee Titans +108 vs Indianapolis Colts 1/1.08

This season:

-Titans are tied for the lead in ATS % at 6-2 75%
-Titans trail only SEA in red zone percentage scored at 79.3%
-Tannehill is the #6 rated QB for 2020 so far at 109.4 (19 TD / 3 INT / 8.7 YPA)
-Rivers is the the $24 rated QB at 91.9 (10 TD / 7 INT / 7.2 YPA)
-Derek Henry leads the league in rushing by over 250 yards and averages 4.6 YPC

So in my mind I really feel pretty strong on the Titans. We know this is the NFL and anything can happen but I'm gonna add a little
Home teams in divisional matchups when line within 3 of pick are 72.7% over last 3+ years

 

[Timh]

BOL MRP, agree on Tenn tonight.

 

[mrpickem]

​

Sunday action, I got a few :rofl:​

252 Pittsburgh Steelers -7 +100 vs Cincinnati Bengals 3/3 251 Cincinnati Bengals/Pittsburgh Steelers Under 46 -108 3/2.78 254 Detroit Lions -3 -115 vs Washington Football Team 3.09/2.69 258 Green Bay Packers -14 -102 vs Jacksonville Jaguars 3/2.94 257 Jacksonville Jaguars/Green Bay Packers Under 47½ -105 3/2.86 259 Philadelphia Eagles -4 -107 vs New York Giants 3/2.8 261 Tampa Bay Buccaneers -6 -107 vs Carolina Panthers 3/2.81 261 Tampa Bay Buccaneers/Carolina Panthers Over 51 -105 3/2.86 266 Las Vegas Raiders -2½ -105 vs Denver Broncos for 1st Half 3/2.86 265 Denver Broncos/Las Vegas Raiders Over 51 -103 3/2.91 267 Buffalo Bills +2½ +100 vs Arizona Cardinals 3/3 267 Buffalo Bills/Arizona Cardinals Over 56 -103 3/2.91 269 Seattle Seahawks +2½ +105 vs Los Angeles Rams 3/3.15 269 Seattle Seahawks/Los Angeles Rams Over 54½ -105 3/2.86 271 San Francisco 49ers/New Orleans Saints Over 49 -105 3/2.86 273 Baltimore Ravens -7 -107 vs New England Patriots 3/2.81 273 Baltimore Ravens/New England Patriots Under 43½ -102 3/2.94 277 Los Angeles Chargers/Miami Dolphins Over 48½ -102 3/2.94

randoms...

• CIN: downgrade Joe Mixon (foot) to out Sunday
• SEA: Carson, Hyde both ruled out for Week 10 vs Rams
• LAC: move Justin Jackson to injured reserve
• CHI: A-Rob (knee) limited in practice, questionable
• CHI: David Montgomery (concussion) won't play Monday
• MIN: Irv Smith (groin) ruled out for Monday night
• HOU: Houston places David Johnson (concussion) on IR
• BUF: Bills move Norman, three others to COVID-19 list
• NYG: Completed 1 win of their eventual 8 game winning-streak
• NYG: Saquon: "My ACL is already healed and I am ready to rush for 400 yards a game"
• NYG: Judge is "ready" to play Chiefs in Super Bowl if they are able to make it there
• NYG: Daniel Jones completes surgery to have every tendon in his body moved to his hand and arm so he won't fumble anymore
• CLE: Nick Chubb (knee) activated, will play Sunday (was considering Texans but probably not now)
• DAL: Cowboys looking to extend LB Aldon Smith
• SEA 8-1 ATS away vs >= 60% win teams in division
• SEA 11-1 SU / 9-2-1 ATS off loss as favorite
• R Wilson is 13-1 SU and 10-1-3 ATS off loss with revenge(including 5-0-1 ATS in div)
• Rams 6-17 ATS as division home chalk(including 1-8 ATS vs >= 50% win teams
• Jags are a joke and Luton probably the worse QB in the league
• GB 10-3 ATS L13 week 10 games & 6-2 ATS L8 overall
• Raiders good offense (12th) / bad D (31st), DEN good D (10th) bad offense (30th) made worse if Jeudy is out. These equal out, but in the modern NFL you have to take the better offense most of the time. Raiders more likely to score early and often although I could see garbage time scoring from Broncos late, so 1H and over for me

​

Cincy is 9-21-2 SU and 13-18 ATS off bye week(including 0-4 SU & ATS in L4)
Road division chalk off bye is 60.8% ATS in SDQL history (30 years)

.

 

[mrpickem]

of note...

all non-divisional games with totals >= 50 for last 7+ years have cashed 61% (57% including divisional games which were only 51% alone)

 

[mrpickem]

Top 20 QB's (Active based on ATS win % when starting)



Dont sleep on Teddy and can we just appreciate Brady's almost 60% with 192 winning tickets!

...and for grins here's the bottom 10

 

[mrpickem]

Of all regular season games lined >=11 over last 7+ season, the favorite has cashed 62.8% and the under has cashed 58.8% (5-3-1 ats & 6-3 under this season)

​

 

[mrpickem]

​	adding a few including buying off DET​
	253 Washington Football Team +3 -115 vs Detroit Lions 4.17/3.63 255 Houston Texans +4½ -108 vs Cleveland Browns 3/2.78 265 Denver Broncos +3 +108 vs Las Vegas Raiders 2.4/2.59 277 Los Angeles Chargers +2 -105 vs Miami Dolphins 3/2.86 7619 R.Wilson TD passes Over 2½ +145 2/2.9 7627 R.Wilson rushing yards Over 19½ -165 1.65/1

 

[mrpickem]

​	SUNDAY - [12-10-2 +4.55u] WEEK 10 - [14-14-2 +1.68u] SEASON - [75-91 -38.64u]​
	276 Chicago Bears +3 +110 vs Minnesota Vikings 2/2.2 276 Chicago Bears +160 vs Minnesota Vikings 1/1.6 275 Minnesota Vikings/Chicago Bears Under 43½ -105 3/2.86 275 Minnesota Vikings Under 23 -110 vs Chicago Bears 3/2.73

I really like this CHI D a lot, it's the main reason the bears have hopes at the playoffs. I know the Vikings have hit over this total every single game but the other games came against GB, TEN, DET, ATL and SEA...all of which have not shown to be a top tier defense like da bears. CHI only allows 21 ppg and have also done it against some of the best scoring offenses: NO, TB and ATL; holding them all under 26 so I think they can hold an offense inferior in comparison under that 23. Cousins on the road in prime time + an awesome bears D at home should help keep these Vikings under 23 for the night.

• MIN is 2-12 ATS in their last 14 Mon. games.
• Under is 7-2 in MIN last 9 Mon. games.
• Under is 12-3 in CHI last 15 home games.
• Under is 6-2 in CHI last 8 games in November.
• Under is 20-7 in CHI last 27 games on grass.
• Home team is 25-10 ATS in their last 35 meetings.
• Under is 12-5 in the last 17 meetings.

​

​

 

[number2]

Also.....Cousins 0-8 on prime time games..,,

 

[SIGO]

Amazing pics, pick..