Week 10

[mrpickem]

​	Week 9 - [9-16 -12.56u] Season - [35-50 -45.79u] Wednesday night action...
	285 Ball State/Miami Ohio Under 56½ -105 2.1/2 290 Akron +20½ -108 vs Western Michigan 2.16/2 289 Western Michigan/Akron Under 52 -107 2.14/2 293 Buffalo/Northern Illinois Under 53 -103 2.06/2 295 Ohio/Central Michigan Under 54½ -105 2.1/2

 

[mrpickem]

adding
285 Ball State* -1 -101 vs Miami Ohio
2/1.98

randoms...

• EMU/Kent St over 65.5 -105 - SP+ has both offenses far ahead of their respective D's, makes sense as both teams give up more than 30.5 ppg. QB Dustin Crum and WR Isaiah McKoy put up lots of big plays last year and are back, but Kent St's D-line is really undersized and didn't stop anyone on the ground. EMU has some weapons with All-MAC WR Dylan Drummond and TE Thomas Odukoya, and the D lost a bunch of starters. Light it up!
• Ball St -1 vs. Miami Ohio - Miami won 8 games last year but didn't look great stat-wise, a bunch of the wins were in very close games and the offense was not that good, QB Brent Gabbert didn't show much. Defense blitzes a fuck ton but lost its 2 best blitzing DBs. Ball St seems more like a team that would be ready for a season opener to me with a lot of returning experience/production at the skill positions, OL and the secondary.
• CMU vs. Ohio under 54.5 - I doubt either team will be terrible offensively over the course of the season but liking this under because of the QB situations. CMU will rely on untested redshirt freshman Daniel Richardson, Ohio lost an excellent QB in Nathan Rourke and now will rotate between UNLV transfer Armani Rogers who can run but is inaccurate, and Nathan's brother Kurtis who is a freshman. CMU should be a top 2-3 MAC defense as well with a ton of returning production, Ohio isn't as good but at least returns almost everyone.

Missed out on KSU over as I didn't notice it was 6PM kick, I may look for in-game if it presents itself.

 

[mrpickem]

Glad a few people liked the thread despite going 0-6 last night.
I try to a least provide some nice eye candy even if my picks aren't working out.

• 305 Wyoming/Colorado State Under 54 -103
  2/1.94
• 307 Utah State/Nevada Under 57 -105
  2/1.91

 

[CPA-hole]

Just keep plugging along. Those nights happen. Especially opening night in the MAC. Get it back tonight.

 

[Wonderboy]

And nobody does a better job than you.

 

[2daBank]

We don’t come here for your plays bro! lol

Not to be judgey but what the hell you thinking making 6 plays on opening night of Maction? That asking for punishment.

 

[mrpickem]

We don’t come here for your plays bro! lol

Not to be judgey but what the hell you thinking making 6 plays on opening night of Maction? That asking for punishment.

I suppose I live for the action. I consider myself a grinder as I never met a bet I didn't like. :rofl:

Another thing, in the past I've always moved my unit value up and down, but this year I have kept my unit value the same(small) and I just move number of units up or down based on bankroll and not necessarily how much I like a particular game.

:cheers3:

 

[mrpickem]

Thurs [1-1]
ytd [36-57 -58.45u]

• 309 Miami Florida -10 -120 vs NC State
• 2/1.66
• 309 Miami Florida/NC State Under 60½ -131
• 2/1.53
• 311 San Jose State/San Diego State Under 49½ -105
• 2/1.91

Canes have played really well beating everyone cept Clemson, off bye vs pack also off bye should be somewhat of an ACC mismatch imo
Unders just cash way more often in all games played any day except Saturday
If you throw out B10 and AAC, the under cashed 59.2% when the home team was favored last 8+ years 258-178 including 7 of last 8 :shocked:

 

[mrpickem]

​

1-2 last nite, if ever there was a "due" factor...ITS NOW!​

321 South Alabama/Coastal Carolina Under 55½ -105 2.01/1.91 323 Liberty +16½ -105 vs Virginia Tech 2.01/1.91 329 UL Monroe +18½ -105 vs Georgia State 2.01/1.91 335 North Carolina -11½ -105 vs Duke 2.01/1.91 340 Indiana +3½ -105 vs Michigan 2.01/1.91 345 Baylor/Iowa State Under 47½ -109 1.99/1.83 348 Illinois +7 -105 vs Minnesota U 2.01/1.91 349 Michigan State/Iowa Under 47 -105 2.01/1.91 364 UNLV +12 -105 vs Fresno State 2.01/1.91 372 Oklahoma -38½ -105 vs Kansas U 2.01/1.91 375 Oklahoma State -13½ -105 vs Kansas State 2.01/1.91 375 Oklahoma State/Kansas State Under 47 -105 2.01/1.91 382 Georgia -2½ -117 vs Florida 1.97/1.68 387 Vanderbilt +18½ -102 vs Mississippi State 2/1.96 387 Vanderbilt/Mississippi State Under 45 -103 2/1.94 393 New Mexico +15½ -102 vs Hawaii 2/1.96 395 Western Kentucky +6½ +105 vs Florida Atlantic 1.91/2.01

Here's a cute little trend that's been 70% in database history
Fade the road fav or dog less than 3 on full rest with short week coming before game #10

 

[2daBank]

Good luck today

 

[UTSUX]

BOL

 

[mrpickem]

​	Change of heart on cocktail party. Just can't bet vs my alma mater so I'm buying out of Dawgs and really seeing a shootout type game. Not sure if UGA came keep pace with Trask an Co. Not to mention all the injuries on the UGA defense. Let's fucking go! :cheers3:​
	381 Florida +3 -105 vs Georgia 2.1/2 381 Florida/Georgia Over 54 -107 2.14/2

 

[mrpickem]

​	adds...like Irishto get out ofthe gate but will look for Tigers 2H or in-game​
	381 Florida/Georgia Over 27 -110 for 1st Half 1.1/1 402 Notre Dame +3½ -120 vs Clemson for 1st Half 1.5/1.25 381 Florida +136 vs Georgia 1.45/1.97 ​