smh212
Awesomeitus Degenerate
YTD: 34-27 +18.63
Sides: 11-12 -3.02
Totals: 9-7 +2.25
Teaser: 6-2 +16.00
Parlays 1-2 +1.85
Prop : 3-0 +2.85
Half 4-3 +0.18
Team Totals: 0-1 -1.10
Margin Against the Close
The MAC system requires that a teams MAC score is either + or – 40 and if they are a fade team (score in the +) they had to have covered the prior week. If they are a PLAY ON team, they had to have not covered last week. The purpose of the MAC is to measure a team’s performance against the markets expectations.
Mac Fades
Overall 3-0 +3.00
MAC Play On
Overall 1-0 +1.00
Week 9 had 1 MAC play:
Play On: Titans +7.5 SU WINNER
Week 10 MAC plays:
Play on: LIONS (-60.5) at +10.5 or better
MAC Buy and Sell Arrows: Based on ATS runs and the corresponding MACs. Games listed in no particular order:
BUYS:
Lions
Titans
Browns
Jax
Dallas
Mia
Hou
Atl
Pitt
Phi
Was
GB
Chi
Tb
SELLS:
NE
SF
Cincy
Car
Min
KC
No
STL
Injuries of note:
TENNY: Still following the PERRISH COX situation in Tenny. W/ JASON MCCOURTY likely done, the Titans 3[SUP]rd[/SUP] overall D pass rating needs adjusting.
PHILLY: JORDAN HICKS LB – Phila. HICKS has been the Eagles most best LB this season. An absolute steal in the draft, more pressure will be applied to Kendricks, Ryans, and Alonzo – none of which are 100%.
GB: Think the Pack missed SAM SHIELDS last week? Even if he returns, a matchup w/ the 6’5” Megatron does not bode well for thr 6’ Shields. Fantasy nerds take note, Megatron will get in the endzone this week. Reminder, fantasy isn’t gambling…….it’s just like luck, no skill involved. Any president that states he will legalize and tax sports betting gets my vote. Remember the Lottery support older Americans and helps ensure the poor stay poor. Like your friend who thinks black is “due” in roulette, because 10 reds have hit. Sorry for the tangent, the whole thing disgusts me.
NYG: AMUKAMARA likely out again. His injury is worth ABSOLUTLEY NOTHING in my PR, but thought I’d mention it.
TB: Vinny Jax – OUT this week, hurts as VJax, Mike Evans (despite his historic drop numners) and ASJ, make a nice trio. Think about Vinny Jax, is his replacement, Donteea Dye – is TURRIBLE.
NE: DION LEWIS – yeah he is a RB, in New England, which is always tough to evaluate, but Lewis was more than. He was worked his way into the offense , as a guy who has plays called specifically for him. In his absence, we will see more BOLDEN and WHITE in the passing offense. Keep in mind that both had more time as RB in NE before Lewis, and Lewis beat them both out. Expect WHITE to play more of the “Lewis” role, and Blount to stay in his role. I think this is a pretty big blow to the PATS offense.
Considerations and Plays
Det@Gb
Play: LIONS +10.5 (1.5)
My Line: GB -10
Lean: GB 1[SUP]st[/SUP] half
Lions are a MAC play. GB outscored opponents 254-67 at home L9, so while Det is a MAC play, and thus a bet, may look to double dip. Det a -60.5 MAC L4, and season worst -71.5 overall MAC score on the season. GB comes in posting a -29.5 MAC over their L4, and a season worst -8.5.
Dal@TB
My Line: Tb -1.5 47
My Play: OVER 43.5 (1.5)
I don’t see any value in the number, but the total is another story. TB’s defense has been terrible over their last 4. They allowed two of the NFL’s worst offense’s in Jax and Wash to score 30+. Bit of a false final in last weeks Giants game, as the score was 26-18 NYG, when they scored off a fumbled lateral by TB with 4 secs left. Tampa had ample opportunity to score, but when you lose 3 fumbles, you kill any shot you have. Consider that Tampa out gained NY, with more yards per rush 5.9-3.5 and per pass 6.9 to 5.3. Take those 4 FGs, and make half TDs and you have 26 pts, not 18. Maybe the fact that NY allowed 608 yds the prior week, and “appeared” to play better defense last week has this number low.
It could also be the ineptitude of the Dallas offense since Romo went down. However, I think we saw signs of life last week with Cassel getting more comfortable, and Dez in his second game back, I like both teams to meet and exceed 24 pts…
Car@Ten
My Line: Car -4 43.5
Pass at current price - play at Tenny +6
Line is about right. Favor Tenny, as my PR calls for “4”, and I the fact that this game never reached “6” despite, the publics attempt to get it there, has me believing the books are backing Tenny. Tenny is the kind of team I bet when I see a situation I like, as was the case last week. This week it will take a “6” to get me involved.
NOTE:
[Panthers] NFL teams as road favorites out of division after playing three straight home games: 16-33 ATS
Chi@STL
My Line: Stl -6.5 41.5
My play: RAMS TT UNDER 25 (1.25)
consider UNDER if hits 43.5
I think this one is lined right. Some square shops are dealing 7.5’s, and I would get some of that action, if I had access to it but small. STL can’t throw the ball, so if Gurley isn’t going they aren’t going. Was able to pick the team total for STL from my local. I have 23-17. Small value their IMO, especially if we see the line drop as it has been.
No@Wash
My Line: No -1 53.5
PASS
I got nothing here. I think the Skins are overrated, but asking the Saints to win on the road has always been tricky. Skins continue to get healthy, but will be starting 2[SUP]nd[/SUP] string center, whom they like so much, they signed a guy off the street to replace him. Problem is Brian De Pulenta is not ready yet. Wash scores a -1 in my S+I rating, meaning they have thrown more picks then they have sacked the QB over their last 4. I suspect Wash will be favored by kick, but I can’t back a team that in their L4 are:
31[SUP]st[/SUP] in offensive yards per game
31[SUP]st[/SUP] in defense yards per game
32[SUP]nd[/SUP] in yardage differential
Mia@Phi
My line: Phi -5.5 48
PASS
Honeymoon w/ Coach Campbell seems to have worn off w/ Mia. I expect the Eagles to run the ball at will on Miami. Going to watch for some in game action. Typically, betting the Eagles games UNDER in the 1[SUP]st[/SUP] half and OVER in the 2[SUP]nd[/SUP] has been profitable. But, Miami has never seen this Phila offense, and the Eagles run blocking schemes will give them fits. Still, I’m not sold that Phila has turned a corner, and I have not faith in Miami being able to sustain.
Cle@Pitt
My Line: Pitt -5.5 42
PASS
Lean Williams (pitt) yardage prop
Pitt playing 3[SUP]rd[/SUP] straight at home. Both clubs have lost 3 straight ATS (Pitt -16 MAC : Cle -27 MAC). I don’t trust Landry Jones at all, so will be watching for some in-game action. Browns can’t stop run, so a D’Angelo Williams prop may be in order. Will take a look at team totals here as well. My three systems produced: 24-17/ 21-17/21-14.
Jax @ Balt
My Line: Balt -5 48
PASS – Play on Jax at +6.5
Missed the number here. Consider Jax on a teaser taking them across 7 and 10. I expect a close game. Will be looking for a way/reason to play Jax, as I have them trending in the right direction, while I have Baltimore standing still. Be interesting to see if Jax can take a step and beat a bad team on the road.
Min@Oak
My Line: Oak -3.5 44
Lean Oak -3 : want 2.5
My numbers say that Minny is not as good as their record. ATS they are 7-1, but are only have a+22 MAC. L4 they have posted a 3,9,1.5, and 2. So they are always around the closing number. These teams pose two contrasts in styles. Minny is all about defense and a conservative offense. Oakland is about a bend-don’t break defense and an explosive offense. I give OAKLAND the edge here for a couple of reasons:
Let’s see how the markets move, and if some value comes up.
Kc@Den
My Line: Den -6 41
PASS
KC has been a roller coaster both in my PR and in the MAC. From wk2 to wk6 they posted a -40 MAC number. L4 they have a +25 MAC. Which KC team will show up? Reid excellent off a bye, but Den is a tough place to play. Den has played around the closing number all season, posting a +20 through weeks 1-7. The +21 they posted in wk 8 (29-10 win over GB) only their second double digit MAC number of the year.
The markets open Den -6 and have settled around 4-4.5, Note that Denvers SI number is +4, lowest it has been all season (they have been in double figures all year). This is significant as it is a gauge of the Denver D covering for Mannings terrible play (8 ints L4). KC has a +12 rating over their L4, meaning they are getting to QB, and not turning it over. I think 6 is the right number, but I would rather use it back KC, then play Denver at 4.5. Markets are saying KC – I agree, but either a moneyline of +200 or better needs to present itself or a “6”. KC is a possible teaser team, given the fact that Denver has stayed within 10.5 or less in all but 2 of their games.
Thoughts on last three games coming.
Sides: 11-12 -3.02
Totals: 9-7 +2.25
Teaser: 6-2 +16.00
Parlays 1-2 +1.85
Prop : 3-0 +2.85
Half 4-3 +0.18
Team Totals: 0-1 -1.10
Margin Against the Close
The MAC system requires that a teams MAC score is either + or – 40 and if they are a fade team (score in the +) they had to have covered the prior week. If they are a PLAY ON team, they had to have not covered last week. The purpose of the MAC is to measure a team’s performance against the markets expectations.
Mac Fades
Overall 3-0 +3.00
MAC Play On
Overall 1-0 +1.00
Week 9 had 1 MAC play:
Play On: Titans +7.5 SU WINNER
Week 10 MAC plays:
Play on: LIONS (-60.5) at +10.5 or better
- Mac Range is +66 to 71.5 – 71.5 is the lowest mark of the season
- First time all season ARIZONA does not hold the top MAC spot (NE has a 66 – AZ 64). NE 5-1-2 ATS this season. One ATS lost resulted in only a -2.
- GB’s -29.5 MAC on last 4 played has them in the negative for the first time this year (-8.5)
- Falcons have lost 5 straight ATS (-38 MAC). Those 5 teams have a combined -103 MAC YTD. Against ATL they combined for a +43 MAC. Prior to their free-fall ATL had out-performed the market on average of +10.6 PTS per game (2 scores). During their streak they have under-performed on avg of 7.5 PTS per week. Underperforming by over a TD a week, is going to have the public fuming at ATL, and an adjustment may be coming. Off this week, they will enter wk11 against Indy with a -37 MAC in their last 4. Indy has a -2 MAC entering this weeks game, depending on how it goes, ATL may have value.
- Speaking of Indy, the Colts have posted a combined +12 MAC in Hasselbecks 2 starts (+1 wk4 – that game opened Indy 11, went to 9 and closed at 4 – Indy “beat” Jax 16-13 in OT at home avg
- 5.3 yds per pass (NO TD’s) – wk5 +12 – Beat Hou as 27-20 as a 4 pt rd dog. Indy much better 7.3 yd/pass – they avg 6.16 on the season).
- Pitt is 0-3 ATS L3 with a -16, BUT trending in the right direction, -7.-6,-3 – buy signal emerging.
- Minny is 7-1 ATS – yet are 10[SUP]th[/SUP] in the MAC with a +22. Minny has covered 7 straight, with 4 of their last 5 being right around the number (4,3,9,1.5, and ). Only 1 game in their last 5 have they outperformed the number by more than a TD (Week7 28-19 win @ Det in a game that closed at a pk). Their MEAN MAC is +3.5, they are 3 pt dogs to Oakland this week. Recent MAC performance would have Minny winning outright. If you don’t like that, taking them on a tease to +9.5, you should have confidence in their ability to stay within that number….if you think this is the week the ATS run ends.
- Speaking of OAK, this marks B2B weeks for them in + MAC territory. Oak has covered 3 straight and has done so with a +29.5 MAC over that time frame.
MAC Buy and Sell Arrows: Based on ATS runs and the corresponding MACs. Games listed in no particular order:
BUYS:
Lions
Titans
Browns
Jax
Dallas
Mia
Hou
Atl
Pitt
Phi
Was
GB
Chi
Tb
SELLS:
NE
SF
Cincy
Car
Min
KC
No
STL
Injuries of note:
TENNY: Still following the PERRISH COX situation in Tenny. W/ JASON MCCOURTY likely done, the Titans 3[SUP]rd[/SUP] overall D pass rating needs adjusting.
PHILLY: JORDAN HICKS LB – Phila. HICKS has been the Eagles most best LB this season. An absolute steal in the draft, more pressure will be applied to Kendricks, Ryans, and Alonzo – none of which are 100%.
GB: Think the Pack missed SAM SHIELDS last week? Even if he returns, a matchup w/ the 6’5” Megatron does not bode well for thr 6’ Shields. Fantasy nerds take note, Megatron will get in the endzone this week. Reminder, fantasy isn’t gambling…….it’s just like luck, no skill involved. Any president that states he will legalize and tax sports betting gets my vote. Remember the Lottery support older Americans and helps ensure the poor stay poor. Like your friend who thinks black is “due” in roulette, because 10 reds have hit. Sorry for the tangent, the whole thing disgusts me.
NYG: AMUKAMARA likely out again. His injury is worth ABSOLUTLEY NOTHING in my PR, but thought I’d mention it.
TB: Vinny Jax – OUT this week, hurts as VJax, Mike Evans (despite his historic drop numners) and ASJ, make a nice trio. Think about Vinny Jax, is his replacement, Donteea Dye – is TURRIBLE.
NE: DION LEWIS – yeah he is a RB, in New England, which is always tough to evaluate, but Lewis was more than. He was worked his way into the offense , as a guy who has plays called specifically for him. In his absence, we will see more BOLDEN and WHITE in the passing offense. Keep in mind that both had more time as RB in NE before Lewis, and Lewis beat them both out. Expect WHITE to play more of the “Lewis” role, and Blount to stay in his role. I think this is a pretty big blow to the PATS offense.
Considerations and Plays
Det@Gb
Play: LIONS +10.5 (1.5)
My Line: GB -10
Lean: GB 1[SUP]st[/SUP] half
Lions are a MAC play. GB outscored opponents 254-67 at home L9, so while Det is a MAC play, and thus a bet, may look to double dip. Det a -60.5 MAC L4, and season worst -71.5 overall MAC score on the season. GB comes in posting a -29.5 MAC over their L4, and a season worst -8.5.
Dal@TB
My Line: Tb -1.5 47
My Play: OVER 43.5 (1.5)
I don’t see any value in the number, but the total is another story. TB’s defense has been terrible over their last 4. They allowed two of the NFL’s worst offense’s in Jax and Wash to score 30+. Bit of a false final in last weeks Giants game, as the score was 26-18 NYG, when they scored off a fumbled lateral by TB with 4 secs left. Tampa had ample opportunity to score, but when you lose 3 fumbles, you kill any shot you have. Consider that Tampa out gained NY, with more yards per rush 5.9-3.5 and per pass 6.9 to 5.3. Take those 4 FGs, and make half TDs and you have 26 pts, not 18. Maybe the fact that NY allowed 608 yds the prior week, and “appeared” to play better defense last week has this number low.
It could also be the ineptitude of the Dallas offense since Romo went down. However, I think we saw signs of life last week with Cassel getting more comfortable, and Dez in his second game back, I like both teams to meet and exceed 24 pts…
Car@Ten
My Line: Car -4 43.5
Pass at current price - play at Tenny +6
Line is about right. Favor Tenny, as my PR calls for “4”, and I the fact that this game never reached “6” despite, the publics attempt to get it there, has me believing the books are backing Tenny. Tenny is the kind of team I bet when I see a situation I like, as was the case last week. This week it will take a “6” to get me involved.
NOTE:
[Panthers] NFL teams as road favorites out of division after playing three straight home games: 16-33 ATS
Chi@STL
My Line: Stl -6.5 41.5
My play: RAMS TT UNDER 25 (1.25)
consider UNDER if hits 43.5
I think this one is lined right. Some square shops are dealing 7.5’s, and I would get some of that action, if I had access to it but small. STL can’t throw the ball, so if Gurley isn’t going they aren’t going. Was able to pick the team total for STL from my local. I have 23-17. Small value their IMO, especially if we see the line drop as it has been.
No@Wash
My Line: No -1 53.5
PASS
I got nothing here. I think the Skins are overrated, but asking the Saints to win on the road has always been tricky. Skins continue to get healthy, but will be starting 2[SUP]nd[/SUP] string center, whom they like so much, they signed a guy off the street to replace him. Problem is Brian De Pulenta is not ready yet. Wash scores a -1 in my S+I rating, meaning they have thrown more picks then they have sacked the QB over their last 4. I suspect Wash will be favored by kick, but I can’t back a team that in their L4 are:
31[SUP]st[/SUP] in offensive yards per game
31[SUP]st[/SUP] in defense yards per game
32[SUP]nd[/SUP] in yardage differential
Mia@Phi
My line: Phi -5.5 48
PASS
Honeymoon w/ Coach Campbell seems to have worn off w/ Mia. I expect the Eagles to run the ball at will on Miami. Going to watch for some in game action. Typically, betting the Eagles games UNDER in the 1[SUP]st[/SUP] half and OVER in the 2[SUP]nd[/SUP] has been profitable. But, Miami has never seen this Phila offense, and the Eagles run blocking schemes will give them fits. Still, I’m not sold that Phila has turned a corner, and I have not faith in Miami being able to sustain.
Cle@Pitt
My Line: Pitt -5.5 42
PASS
Lean Williams (pitt) yardage prop
Pitt playing 3[SUP]rd[/SUP] straight at home. Both clubs have lost 3 straight ATS (Pitt -16 MAC : Cle -27 MAC). I don’t trust Landry Jones at all, so will be watching for some in-game action. Browns can’t stop run, so a D’Angelo Williams prop may be in order. Will take a look at team totals here as well. My three systems produced: 24-17/ 21-17/21-14.
Jax @ Balt
My Line: Balt -5 48
PASS – Play on Jax at +6.5
Missed the number here. Consider Jax on a teaser taking them across 7 and 10. I expect a close game. Will be looking for a way/reason to play Jax, as I have them trending in the right direction, while I have Baltimore standing still. Be interesting to see if Jax can take a step and beat a bad team on the road.
Min@Oak
My Line: Oak -3.5 44
Lean Oak -3 : want 2.5
My numbers say that Minny is not as good as their record. ATS they are 7-1, but are only have a+22 MAC. L4 they have posted a 3,9,1.5, and 2. So they are always around the closing number. These teams pose two contrasts in styles. Minny is all about defense and a conservative offense. Oakland is about a bend-don’t break defense and an explosive offense. I give OAKLAND the edge here for a couple of reasons:
- Minny can’t sustain this level of play
- Bridgewater was not given the green light until yesterday (concussion)
- Minny’s two losses this season have both been when travelling out west (SF, DEN).
- Erick Kendricks OUT for Minny – although offset by Rodney Hudson C for Oak
- Minny has GB on deck. While they won’t look past OAK, the GB is a big one.
Let’s see how the markets move, and if some value comes up.
Kc@Den
My Line: Den -6 41
PASS
KC has been a roller coaster both in my PR and in the MAC. From wk2 to wk6 they posted a -40 MAC number. L4 they have a +25 MAC. Which KC team will show up? Reid excellent off a bye, but Den is a tough place to play. Den has played around the closing number all season, posting a +20 through weeks 1-7. The +21 they posted in wk 8 (29-10 win over GB) only their second double digit MAC number of the year.
The markets open Den -6 and have settled around 4-4.5, Note that Denvers SI number is +4, lowest it has been all season (they have been in double figures all year). This is significant as it is a gauge of the Denver D covering for Mannings terrible play (8 ints L4). KC has a +12 rating over their L4, meaning they are getting to QB, and not turning it over. I think 6 is the right number, but I would rather use it back KC, then play Denver at 4.5. Markets are saying KC – I agree, but either a moneyline of +200 or better needs to present itself or a “6”. KC is a possible teaser team, given the fact that Denver has stayed within 10.5 or less in all but 2 of their games.
Thoughts on last three games coming.
rayer
