TreyDawg
Pretty much a regular
Overall YTD: -7.293u
Sides/ML: 8-10 (44%) -1.22u
Totals: 2-5 (28%) -1.75u
ML Parlays: 3-4 (43%) -1.123u
RR Parlays:
Teasers: 0-4 (0%) -2.45u
Degen Longshots: 0-3 (0%) -0.75u
Small winner last week picking up 0.681u and as minimal as it was I'll take anything on the + side to chip away at the deficit. My under play was never the right side and I should know better than play an under in this league. Missed both teasers by one game and thought 4 teams were 1 too many before I put em in. Oh well, live and learn. I guess I'm more stubborn than smart as I'll try and get each category in the black before the playoffs. May even try a longshot this week in the spirit of being stupid and stubborn. Will try and get thoughts down if I get time this week. On to week 10........
Only a few leans for now:
KC -1.5
Saints ML (parlay piece)
Falcons -1.5
Browns +6.5
Sides/ML:
Chiefs pk (.55/.50)
Lots of unknowns for the home team right now with Sammy's status in the air and the RB situation is not ideal. Bills only ran for 67 yds on 32 carries with the new cast last time out. If Sammy is a go he won't have it as easy this week against the only defense in the league yielding under 200 yds passing per game. They're also the #2 scoring defense in the league and I also discount the 43 they put on the pitiful Jets. The Bills do get to the QB and are 2nd in the league in sacks but I see Smith being able to get the ball out of his hands to mitigate the pass rush. It's not like he relies heavily on his receivers since he hasn't thrown a TD to one yet this year. Andy covers 60%+ for his career on the road and the Chiefs have covered 12 of their last 13 road games and the road team in L14 KC games are 11-3 against the number. I'll take my chances with the better coach and QB. Something like KC 24 BUF 17
Jaguars +7 (.55/.50)
Why oh why am I doing this to myself? Should just stay away from this one with all the variables in play here. Who knows what you'll get with Romo and the game being in London. All it takes is one hit to send Romo back to the sideline and in comes Mr Weeden. If the Cowboys were smart they'd hand it to 29 about 35 times and let him chew up the clock and set up play action. But that would require the Cowboys to be smart, lol. Last 73 Cowboy games the dog has covered 52 of em and the Dallas D is a bit banged up at the moment. Shoelace showing some nice flashes and could find some room to run and could cause some matchup problems. Just hoping for some bone headed football from the Cowgirls and a big play or two from Shoelace to keep it within a score. I'll say DAL 24 JAX 20
Lions -2.5 -120 (.60/.50)
Calvin and Reggie active and the Leos off the bye should be energized. Miami playing well no doubt but I think on the road today they'll face the best defense they've seen ytd. We'll see if they can move it and put up pts against the #5 D against the pass and #2 D against the run. Tannehill is turning into a solid QB but road wins against Jax, Chi, and Oak doesn't show me much. They lost in Buf so if they can get it done today it'll hold a little more water. Det goes on the road to Ari and NE next so they'll be focused today at home and I expect them to get it done. DET 27 MIA 20
Totals:
Falcons/Bucs o47 (.55/.50)
Last 6 between these two have gone 4-1-1 against this number. Bucs were humiliated in Atlanta earlier this year. I don't expect that kind of performance and I REALLY want to play the Falcons side here but I can't stomach playing them on the road even if road teams favored off a bye have covered 49 of the last 65. So I figure this is the best way. both defenses are terrible allowing over 400 yds each and a combined total of almost 60 pts per game. Maybe Glennon provides a spark to Tampa and Atlanta should be rested and ready to run through the holes in the Tampa D. Two shitty teams I'll play an over here. Call it ATL 31 TB 23
Bills/Chiefs o42 (.55/.50)
Sammy and Jackson are active which will help the Bills obviously. I was thinking along the lines of 24-17 but with Sammy in there I think maybe he turns a short FG into a TD. Make it KC 24 BUF 21.
ML Parlay:
Saints -240/Broncos -575/Cardinals -285 (.50/.623)
Saints: SF been a little smoke and mirror lately and I think everyone knows NO history in the dome. Jimmy getting healthy and that spells trouble for opposing defenses. Fully expect NO to get the job done here.
Broncos: Well they're playing the Raiders. Nuf said.
Cardinals: Zona 14-3 last 17 and haven't allowed 100 yds on the ground in the equivalent of more than an NFL season (18 games) so I don't expect much on the ground. Which will put the ball in the hands of Mr Davis and have had some tough sledding lately and now play their 3rd straight road game. Zona doesn't beat themselves and is Davis can throw the Lambs past the Cards so be it.
Teaser:
2T 6pts: Jets +10/Saints +1 (.55/.50)
3T 10pts: Ravens -.5/Seahawks -.5/Bears +18.5 (.65/.50)
4T 13pts: Chiefs&Bills o29/Falcons&Bucs o34/Broncos&Raiders o37/Bears&Packers o40 (.65/.50)
Sides/ML: 8-10 (44%) -1.22u
Totals: 2-5 (28%) -1.75u
ML Parlays: 3-4 (43%) -1.123u
RR Parlays:
Teasers: 0-4 (0%) -2.45u
Degen Longshots: 0-3 (0%) -0.75u
Small winner last week picking up 0.681u and as minimal as it was I'll take anything on the + side to chip away at the deficit. My under play was never the right side and I should know better than play an under in this league. Missed both teasers by one game and thought 4 teams were 1 too many before I put em in. Oh well, live and learn. I guess I'm more stubborn than smart as I'll try and get each category in the black before the playoffs. May even try a longshot this week in the spirit of being stupid and stubborn. Will try and get thoughts down if I get time this week. On to week 10........
Only a few leans for now:
KC -1.5
Saints ML (parlay piece)
Falcons -1.5
Browns +6.5
Sides/ML:
Chiefs pk (.55/.50)
Lots of unknowns for the home team right now with Sammy's status in the air and the RB situation is not ideal. Bills only ran for 67 yds on 32 carries with the new cast last time out. If Sammy is a go he won't have it as easy this week against the only defense in the league yielding under 200 yds passing per game. They're also the #2 scoring defense in the league and I also discount the 43 they put on the pitiful Jets. The Bills do get to the QB and are 2nd in the league in sacks but I see Smith being able to get the ball out of his hands to mitigate the pass rush. It's not like he relies heavily on his receivers since he hasn't thrown a TD to one yet this year. Andy covers 60%+ for his career on the road and the Chiefs have covered 12 of their last 13 road games and the road team in L14 KC games are 11-3 against the number. I'll take my chances with the better coach and QB. Something like KC 24 BUF 17
Jaguars +7 (.55/.50)
Why oh why am I doing this to myself? Should just stay away from this one with all the variables in play here. Who knows what you'll get with Romo and the game being in London. All it takes is one hit to send Romo back to the sideline and in comes Mr Weeden. If the Cowboys were smart they'd hand it to 29 about 35 times and let him chew up the clock and set up play action. But that would require the Cowboys to be smart, lol. Last 73 Cowboy games the dog has covered 52 of em and the Dallas D is a bit banged up at the moment. Shoelace showing some nice flashes and could find some room to run and could cause some matchup problems. Just hoping for some bone headed football from the Cowgirls and a big play or two from Shoelace to keep it within a score. I'll say DAL 24 JAX 20
Lions -2.5 -120 (.60/.50)
Calvin and Reggie active and the Leos off the bye should be energized. Miami playing well no doubt but I think on the road today they'll face the best defense they've seen ytd. We'll see if they can move it and put up pts against the #5 D against the pass and #2 D against the run. Tannehill is turning into a solid QB but road wins against Jax, Chi, and Oak doesn't show me much. They lost in Buf so if they can get it done today it'll hold a little more water. Det goes on the road to Ari and NE next so they'll be focused today at home and I expect them to get it done. DET 27 MIA 20
Totals:
Falcons/Bucs o47 (.55/.50)
Last 6 between these two have gone 4-1-1 against this number. Bucs were humiliated in Atlanta earlier this year. I don't expect that kind of performance and I REALLY want to play the Falcons side here but I can't stomach playing them on the road even if road teams favored off a bye have covered 49 of the last 65. So I figure this is the best way. both defenses are terrible allowing over 400 yds each and a combined total of almost 60 pts per game. Maybe Glennon provides a spark to Tampa and Atlanta should be rested and ready to run through the holes in the Tampa D. Two shitty teams I'll play an over here. Call it ATL 31 TB 23
Bills/Chiefs o42 (.55/.50)
Sammy and Jackson are active which will help the Bills obviously. I was thinking along the lines of 24-17 but with Sammy in there I think maybe he turns a short FG into a TD. Make it KC 24 BUF 21.
ML Parlay:
Saints -240/Broncos -575/Cardinals -285 (.50/.623)
Saints: SF been a little smoke and mirror lately and I think everyone knows NO history in the dome. Jimmy getting healthy and that spells trouble for opposing defenses. Fully expect NO to get the job done here.
Broncos: Well they're playing the Raiders. Nuf said.
Cardinals: Zona 14-3 last 17 and haven't allowed 100 yds on the ground in the equivalent of more than an NFL season (18 games) so I don't expect much on the ground. Which will put the ball in the hands of Mr Davis and have had some tough sledding lately and now play their 3rd straight road game. Zona doesn't beat themselves and is Davis can throw the Lambs past the Cards so be it.
Teaser:
2T 6pts: Jets +10/Saints +1 (.55/.50)
3T 10pts: Ravens -.5/Seahawks -.5/Bears +18.5 (.65/.50)
4T 13pts: Chiefs&Bills o29/Falcons&Bucs o34/Broncos&Raiders o37/Bears&Packers o40 (.65/.50)
:cheers3: GL Fellas :cheers3:
Last edited:
