Week 10 Writeups and Hopefully Feedback

Br@ssknux

Br@ssknux

Pretty much a regular
Man, one of these years I'm going to have my shit together enough to be able to get these write ups done earlier in the week before the line value disintegrates completely. I guess it's been like this for awhile, but it seems like line movement has been as volatile as ever this year. For example, there was no doubt that I will be on and writing up Nebraska + whatever for a number of reasons. It was 7 earlier this week and 6.5 this morning. Now? USC -5. By the time I get to it in chronological order it'll be USC -2.5 at this rate. I'll elaborate more when I get it written up, but Nebraska is an auto play for me.

The Illini are home this week against Rutgers, and the line is currently Illinois-13.5. I'm not sure why this line has moved that high, but I'm not aware of any injuries for Rutgers. Stud Scarlet Knights WR Ian Strong was out last week and is questionable this week, but I can't imagine he would have that much of an effect on the line. In short, this is too much. This Illinois defense cannot cover anyone right now. Las week, Washington scored on 6 of their 7 possessions(other than the kneel downs at the end of the game) and the one drive they didn't score on was die to a hideous drop by their tight end on 3rd and 2 when he was wide open and would have run for another 15 yards. They shouldn't be this bad, but their DC Aaron Henry is getting absolutely whipsawed schematically every week. He's a long time Bielema guy which is why he hasn't been canned, but he's regressed in this 3rd year. Now they face Rutgers, who is actually 2nd in the Big Ten in passing yards per game and just outgained Purdue 543-345 last week. Rutgers defense is horrific and Altmyer has torched bad pass defenses this year, but Schiano finally took control of the defensive play calling last week and they looked much better overall. Bielema also has a knack for insisting on running even when they can gain 15-20 yards per play in order to take time off the clock, and that's the one thing Rutgers might have a fighting chance of stopping. Illinois is not a good home favorite, and it's going to be wind in Champaign, which is not good news for the Illini as they for some unknown reason are always flummoxed by the wind in Memorial Stadium even though they're the ones who should be used to it. 13.5 is a lot of points to lay if you can't stop the opponent, so I would recommend take the points with Rutgers is you're playing that one.

And then Illinois just "played well on defense" in this game. How did it happen? No idea, they just did. Not that I'm complaining. Nice win for them because Rutgers has moved the ball on everyone other than Oregon this year.

Went 8-7 last week to bring the season total to 59-66-4. On to the week.

Duke +3.5 WIN
Buffalo +2 WIN
Ohio State -19 WIN
UCF +3.5 LOSS
Navy +7 LOSS
Virginia Tech +11 LOSS
New Mexico +4.5 WIN
Minnesota -3.5 LOSS
Florida +7 WIN
Purdue +21.5 WIN
Oklahoma +3 WIN
Nebraska +5 WIN
Kentucky +11.5 WIN
Utah -10 WIN

10-4

1. Duke +3.5 (-118) @Clemson (BOL): Clemson comes into this game at 3-4, so you have to wonder where they are at emotionally. Swinney teams are always gong to play hard, but their three wins were a dogfight against Troy and easy wins over BC and North Carolina, arguably the two worst teams in the ACC. Their defensive numbers aren't bad, but in their last 2 home games, SMU and Syracuse have both topped 400 yards against them, and Duke is a much better offensive team than both of them. The Blue Devils are 20th in the country in yards per play and have moved the ball pretty effortlessly against just about everyone they've played this year. The problem for them has been turnovers, and most of them have been devastating, including the 14 point swing on a 95 yard fumble return by GT their last time out. That final score was completely misleading, and they've had a week off to stew on it( as has Clemson). Clemson will not be able to run the ball on Duke, as they've been bad all year at that and the Blue Devils are 28th in yards per rush against. As a result, they'll have to rely on Klubnik and the passing game, and you can bet that Diaz will bring the pressure against him. Bryant Wesco is their best big play threat, and he's out for the year so the Tigers will have to be able to sustain droves with their passing game, and I don't know that they'll be able to avoid drive killers(turnovers, TFL, sacks, etc) in this one. Duke is due for some good fortune, I like their chances a lot in this one. A Clemson team that can lose at home to Syracuse and an SMU team that has otherwise been sleepwalking all year can certainly lose to a Duke squad that has outgained opponents of the #38 ranked schedule by 80 yards per game.

I said Duke would probably make Klubnik beat them because of their ability to stop the run and he basically did. He threw for 385 yards and 10 yards per attempt and Duke wasn't even all that able to pressure him. Duke was moving the ball all day on Clemson too but got a big PI call on the final game winning drive when they were down 7. It wasn't PI, but they could have easily called defensive holding on the play because Terrell for Clemson was holding his guy the entire route until the ball got in the air. Got a break there, but I was due. Also thanks to Diaz for going for 2 which clinched the cover. Dabo is crying about it, but stop the 2 pointer and you win the game.
 
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2. Buffalo +2 @Bowling Green (BOL): Buffalo had some pretty decent expectations this year and as a result of that as well as a very weak slate of opponents so far this year, they've been favored in 6 of their 8 games. Their performance in those games has been terrible, and includes close wins over Kent, UMass and Eastern Michigan and a loss to Akron, all as a significant favorite. Now they go on the road against a BG team that has thrived as a dog, but finds itself as a favorite over one of the league favorites coming into the season. They're favored here because of that loss last week by Buffalo to Akron, but I don't know that the Falcons should be favored either. We really have no idea who's going to play QB for them. It appears that Drew Pyne is still not ready to play and they lost their #2 and #3 QBs to injury(who both stunk anyway). Now they have to go to a 4th stringer (Hunter Najm??). And they're favored? Clearly Buffalo should be embarrassed about that loss to Akron and their other performances, but they're still 4-4 and rank 23rd in the country in yards per play against on defense. Their schedule has been very weak, but they have a pedigree on that side of the ball and are well coached typically by this Lembo staff. BG is going to have to go into panic mode on offense with the 4th stringer, and their defense is ranked 115th in yards per play against and 130th in yards per pass attempt against. There's really no way they should be favored here, and it's typically a good bet to play the dog on principle in MAC conference games.

This was a rocking chair winner. 28-3 game, BG had no shot of moving the ball. They actually brought Pine in the game after it was clear the 4th stringer had no shot and Pyne was worse than him. The fact that BG was favored in this game when they were in that situation was ridiculous.
 
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3. @Ohio State -19 v Penn State (BOL): There's a chance that Penn State plays inspired football in this one, but how are they going to score? Ohio State has given up only 43 points all year. 2 weeks ago at Iowa the Nits managed only 266 yards and new QB Grunkmeyer had 93 yards passing on 28 attempts. If not for a blocked FG TD, that game wouldn't have been close. Ohio State shouldn't have any issue stopping Penn State's 2 stud backs because they have nothing to fear from the passing game. In that Iowa game, Penn State gave up 245 yards rushing and 7+ yards a carry after Northwestern and UCLA ran all over them when it mattered the two games prior to that. Bo Jackson has looked increasingly good running the ball for OSU and Julian Sayin has been uber efficient in his recent games, completing torching a pretty good Wisconsin defense his last time out. OSU has motivation for margin due to their dislike of Penn State and the whispers they've undoubtedly heard about Indiana possibly coming out at #1 in the first CFP rankings. The Buckeyes have gone 10-0-1 in their last 11 ATS, and I'm sure that's not by coincidence. This one could be 21-0 early in the second quarter, and I don't think the Buckeyes are interested in having their great defensive numbers sullied. I think Penn State gets hammered in this one.

This got a little hairy late in the first half when Penn State forced a fumble and punched in a TD to make it 17-14, but Ohio State covering this seemed inevitable. They've now covered what, 11 in a row other than the push with Ohio? Juggernaut.
 
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4. UCF +3.5(-115) @Baylor(BOL): I typically like backing this Baylor offense, but I don't like this matchup for them, and I think UCF has quietly had themselves a pretty nice year despite having all kinds of trouble getting consistent QB play of any sort all year. Their best option is Tayven Jackson, but he's been injured for most of the year. Defensively they've been very solid, albeit against a questionable schedule. However, they have had good performances against solid offenses. They held the Cincinnati offense to 306 yards on the road a couple weeks ago, and the only time they've had anything resembling an off game was at Kansas State in early October when they gave up 430 yards. They're 22nd in yards per play against and 15th against the pass as well as 6th on third down. On offense they've been able to run on just about everyone on their schedule, and that should n't be a problem against this Baylor defense that ranks 103rd against the run, 117th on 3rd down and puts zero pressure on the QB. Jackson came back for the Knights last week and looked very good in a 578 yard offensive performance against West Virginia, but this offense has even looked passable with longtime failure and multiple stop reject Cam Fancher at QB. UCF has been the better team pretty much all year, and I trust their defense to contain Sawyer Robinson and the Baylor offense. If they do that, and maybe even if they don't, the Baylor offense is likely to concede enough points to make this one difficult for the Bears to cover.

If you're gonna lose one, this is the way to lose it. Never had a chance from the start. UCF had almost 600 yards against a better defense than this their last time out and off a bye week they got held to 200 total yards by Baylor's dogshit defense. On to the next.
 
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sixsheets said:
Appreciate your great write-ups. I agree that Illinois line seems quite high I favor the over here based on trends from Rutgers
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Yeah no doubt both defenses have been horrific, especially lately. I heard a stat today that if you limited the Illinois defense's 3rd down defense to 3rd and 10 or more, the opponent's conversion rate is 38%. That would rank 67th!
 
5. Navy +7(-120) @North Texas (BR) : The last time these two teams played each other in Denton, in 2007, Navy outlasted the Green Mean 74-62 in a game that the two teams combined for 1,315 yards. I'm not saying that this one will be THAT high scoring, but let's just say both of these defenses will be at a bit of a disadvantage. Both of these defenses aren't terrible overall, but they both malfunction against what the other team excels at. Navy is alright at stopping the run, which is good because UNT can run it, but under Drew Mestamaker, North Texas certain can fling it around the yard, and Navy is ranked 104th in yards per pass attempt, and you can make a case UNT is better than anyone the Middies have faced this year in the passing game. On the flip side, it's an even more stark difference for North Texas against the run. They also rank 104th in their weak spot, and now they'll be facing the #4 rush offense in yards per attempt. They've already surrendered 300+ rushing yards twice this year and it would have been more if South Alabama and UTSA would have stuck with the run game. Army piled up 387 yards against the Green Mean and Navy has a more effective running game than the Knights do. Also remember that Blake Horvath certainly can throw it to Eli Heidenreich as the Middies boast the #1 pass offense in terms of yards per attempt. navy also has a relative strength on 3rd down defense while UNT is 114th, so that's another point in Navy's direction. Usually, when a dog can outrush the favorite in a game, it's very difficult for the favorite to cover a decent sized spread. and 7 certainly qualifies. This is an even steven game, so I'll take the 7. Navy is still unbeaten and UNT has only the loss to USF, so both teams are still alive for the American crown. Plenty of motivation for both.

Kudos to the Green Mean here. They fooled Horvath into a couple bad throws and punched out a fumble which you have to do when Navy gives you an opportunity like that to stop them. They also kept the passing game in front of them and Navy thrives on explosives in the passing game. UNT showed you can get run on by Navy(311 rush yards for the Middies) and still keep them in check.
 
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6. @Virginia Tech +11 v Louisville(BOL) : I took Cal on the road at VT last Friday because I felt the Hokies were not worthy of that kind of lofty favorite status, and I lost in double OT as a 6 point dog. That might seem like a bad beat, but it really wasn't because VT was the right side. In the process it's pretty easy to see that the Hokies have a new lease on life under interim Philip Montgomery, and they look significantly better coached. The absolutely drove the Bears into the ground last week, rushing for 300+ yards behind big QB Drones and RB Marcellous Hawkins who is averaging almost 7 yards per carry. Defensively, with only a few exceptions they've been good against the run, holding 4 of their last 5 opponents under 3 yards per carry, and Louisville has struggled to run the ball all year, I think the Hokies will be making Miller Moss beat them, and Moss has been very turnover prone when he's anxious. Louisville also has been a bad road favorite, as has Brohm over this career. They're 2-7 since 2022 and 2-5 ATS under Brohm. I just think this is a VT squad in a good spot and renewed under the new coaching leadership. If they are effective running it, it could be a long day for the Cards, who are now under the pressure that comes with being potentially projected into the 12 team playoff. I think 11 is too much.

VT could have actually won this game if they stuck with attacking the middle of the field. Drones and Hawkins were tough to handle for the Cards in the first half but they dried up in the second half, only 92 total yards. It was 16-7 at half and then VT just went in the fetal position from there. The front door cover materialized when VT's defense paid down when they were still only down 5 and Louisville ran one in for a TD late when they were just trying to burn clock. Yet another front door cover we lose on.
 
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7. New Mexico +4.5 @UNLV (BOL) : The Runnin Rebels have lived a charmed life. The regression has to be coming. Although Dan Mullen and QB Anthony Collandrea have teamed up to lead a pretty effective offense, that defense has been terrible. The Rebs are 133rd against the run, are either bad or middling at best at pretty much every defensive category, and they're 122nd in sack rate. New Mexico does a number of things well, one of them being their balanced offense. They'll be able to run it with Bankston and Humphrey, and I think Jack Layne will have some time to throw, something he needs because he makes mistakes when under duress. This Lobo team does the little things well, such as avoiding penalties and stopping the run and they are very well coached under Jason Eck. UNLV has been very fortunate, and I'm pretty convinced these teams are quite similar despite the records. The Lobos are coming off 2 consecutive games where they ran for 200+ so they're lathered up. I think this is another close one.

Good ole Jason Eck. Any decent team who can move the ball is a viable play against UNLV. Jack Layne averaged 15 yards per attempt in this one, and he's average at best. Lobos never really were stopped in the game. Even though they had all kinds of problems themselves on defense trying to stop Collandrea, this cover was never really ever in doubt.
 
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Br@ssknux said:
3. @Ohio State -19 v Penn State (BOL): There's a chance that Penn State plays inspired football in this one, but how are they going to score? Ohio State has given up only 43 points all year. 2 weeks ago at Iowa the Nits managed only 266 yards and new QB Grunkmeyer had 93 yards passing on 28 attempts. If not for a blocked FG TD, that game wouldn't have been close. Ohio State shouldn't have any issue stopping Penn State's 2 stud backs because they have nothing to fear from the passing game. In that Iowa game, Penn State gave up 245 yards rushing and 7+ yards a carry after Northwestern and UCLA ran all over them when it mattered the two games prior to that. Bo Jackson has looked increasingly good running the ball for OSU and Julian Sayin has been uber efficient in his recent games, completing torching a pretty good Wisconsin defense his last time out. OSU has motivation for margin due to their dislike of Penn State and the whispers they've undoubtedly heard about Indiana possibly coming out at #1 in the first CFP rankings. The Buckeyes have gone 10-0-1 in their last 11 ATS, and I'm sure that's not by coincidence. This one could be 21-0 early in the second quarter, and I don't think the Buckeyes are interested in having their great defensive numbers sullied. I think Penn State gets hammered in this one.
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B
Any idea where this line is dropping? I saw it as high as 21. It’s down to 18 1/2.
Appreciate all you do with your write ups. Major fan always start here when I’m hunting games.
Stay groovy
 
Br@ssknux said:
Man, one of these years I'm going to have my shit together enough to be able to get these write ups done earlier in the week before the line value disintegrates completely. I guess it's been like this for awhile, but it seems like line movement has been as volatile as ever this year. For example, there was no doubt that I will be on and writing up Nebraska + whatever for a number of reasons. It was 7 earlier this week and 6.5 this morning. Now? USC -5. By the time I get to it in chronological order it'll be USC -2.5 at this rate. I'll elaborate more when I get it written up, but Nebraska is an auto play for me.

The Illini are home this week against Rutgers, and the line is currently Illinois-13.5. I'm not sure why this line has moved that high, but I'm not aware of any injuries for Rutgers. Stud Scarlet Knights WR Ian Strong was out last week and is questionable this week, but I can't imagine he would have that much of an effect on the line. In short, this is too much. This Illinois defense cannot cover anyone right now. Las week, Washington scored on 6 of their 7 possessions(other than the kneel downs at the end of the game) and the one drive they didn't score on was die to a hideous drop by their tight end on 3rd and 2 when he was wide open and would have run for another 15 yards. They shouldn't be this bad, but their DC Aaron Henry is getting absolutely whipsawed schematically every week. He's a long time Bielema guy which is why he hasn't been canned, but he's regressed in this 3rd year. Now they face Rutgers, who is actually 2nd in the Big Ten in passing yards per game and just outgained Purdue 543-345 last week. Rutgers defense is horrific and Altmyer has torched bad pass defenses this year, but Schiano finally took control of the defensive play calling last week and they looked much better overall. Bielema also has a knack for insisting on running even when they can gain 15-20 yards per play in order to take time off the clock, and that's the one thing Rutgers might have a fighting chance of stopping. Illinois is not a good home favorite, and it's going to be wind in Champaign, which is not good news for the Illini as they for some unknown reason are always flummoxed by the wind in Memorial Stadium even though they're the ones who should be used to it. 13.5 is a lot of points to lay if you can't stop the opponent, so I would recommend take the points with Rutgers is you're playing that one.

Went 8-7 last week to bring the season total to 59-66-4. On to the week.

1. Duke +3.5 (-118) @Clemson (BOL): Clemson comes into this game at 3-4, so you have to wonder where they are at emotionally. Swinney teams are always gong to play hard, but their three wins were a dogfight against Troy and easy wins over BC and North Carolina, arguably the two worst teams in the ACC. Their defensive numbers aren't bad, but in their last 2 home games, SMU and Syracuse have both topped 400 yards against them, and Duke is a much better offensive team than both of them. The Blue Devils are 20th in the country in yards per play and have moved the ball pretty effortlessly against just about everyone they've played this year. The problem for them has been turnovers, and most of them have been devastating, including the 14 point swing on a 95 yard fumble return by GT their last time out. That final score was completely misleading, and they've had a week off to stew on it( as has Clemson). Clemson will not be able to run the ball on Duke, as they've been bad all year at that and the Blue Devils are 28th in yards per rush against. As a result, they'll have to rely on Klubnik and the passing game, and you can bet that Diaz will bring the pressure against him. Bryant Wesco is their best big play threat, and he's out for the year so the Tigers will have to be able to sustain droves with their passing game, and I don't know that they'll be able to avoid drive killers(turnovers, TFL, sacks, etc) in this one. Duke is due for some good fortune, I like their chances a lot in this one. A Clemson team that can lose at home to Syracuse and an SMU team that has otherwise been sleepwalking all year can certainly lose to a Duke squad that has outgained opponents of the #38 ranked schedule by 80 yards per game.
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The last time Clemson played Duke was a shocking and unforgettable debacle. It was like the Duke/GT game you discussed, but much worse. It was one of Dabo’s five worst losses ever. It was game 1 of the post-DJU era. And a disaster. It was Monday night the first week of the season.

Duke is 3-3 ATS this year (not counting the Elon game), but in all of the covers they were at least +3 in turnovers.

I don’t think Clemson is a great bet, but it’s the right side.
 
7 games? Thats rookie numbers. I expect to awake to at least 7 more amazing writeups 10 hours from now. Regardless, Im tailing em all. Ok several at least. Good luck as always. Not that youll need it
Im feeling a 70% week outta ya. Dont let me down. Lol. You gonna rake this week!
 
Br@ssknux said:
5. Navy +7(-120) @North Texas (BR) : The last time these two teams played each other in Denton, in 2007, Navy outlasted the Green Mean 74-62 in a game that the two teams combined for 1,315 yards. I'm not saying that this one will be THAT high scoring, but let's just say both of these defenses will be at a bit of a disadvantage. Both of these defenses aren't terrible overall, but they both malfunction against what the other team excels at. Navy is alright at stopping the run, which is good because UNT can run it, but under Drew Mestamaker, North Texas certain can fling it around the yard, and Navy is ranked 104th in yards per pass attempt, and you can make a case UNT is better than anyone the Middies have faced this year in the passing game. On the flip side, it's an even more stark difference for North Texas against the run. They also rank 104th in their weak spot, and now they'll be facing the #4 rush offense in yards per attempt. They've already surrendered 300+ rushing yards twice this year and it would have been more if South Alabama and UTSA would have stuck with the run game. Army piled up 387 yards against the Green Mean and Navy has a more effective running game than the Knights do. Also remember that Blake Horvath certainly can throw it to Eli Heidenreich as the Middies boast the #1 pass offense in terms of yards per attempt. navy also has a relative strength on 3rd down defense while UNT is 114th, so that's another point in Navy's direction. Usually, when a dog can outrush the favorite in a game, it's very difficult for the favorite to cover a decent sized spread. and 7 certainly qualifies. This is an even steven game, so I'll take the 7. Navy is still unbeaten and UNT has only the loss to USF, so both teams are still alive for the American crown. Plenty of motivation for both.
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Excellent
 
Bubbalicious said:
B
Any idea where this line is dropping? I saw it as high as 21. It’s down to 18 1/2.
Appreciate all you do with your write ups. Major fan always start here when I’m hunting games.
Stay groovy
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Not sure. I've noticed that significant dogs have gotten play late in the week quite a bit this year. I might be off on this, but it seems like "the public" is a lot more willing to play dogs than they used to be.
 
M.W. said:
The last time Clemson played Duke was a shocking and unforgettable debacle. It was like the Duke/GT game you discussed, but much worse. It was one of Dabo’s five worst losses ever. It was game 1 of the post-DJU era. And a disaster. It was Monday night the first week of the season.

Duke is 3-3 ATS this year (not counting the Elon game), but in all of the covers they were at least +3 in turnovers.

I don’t think Clemson is a great bet, but it’s the right side.
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I remember that Monday nighter. As for this one, although Duke has been fortunate in their wins, it's been the opposite in their losses. If they have that happen again they are losing. If they get turnovers, they're winning. The only game that turnovers were pretty much neutral was their game at Tulane, and I'm guessing this version of Clemson would have had a similar result on that day. Ultimately, I think Duke has proven they can move the ball on anyone and that they'll stop the run and pressure the QB, so Klubnik(if he plays which I assume he will) will have to beat them. I was hoping I would get a "that's the right side" response from you on this one, but it doesn't always happen that way. Always interested in your takes on the Tigers MW. Thanks as always.
 
8. @Minnesota -3.5 v Michigan State(BR) : This might seem like a bit of a square side, but it really looks like the right play to me here. One of my biggest regrets was not fading Minnesota at Iowa last week. When you looked closely at it, there was a ton of evidence that Iowa was going to do whatever they wanted in that game and that the Gophers were a bit of a fraud. Their performance against Nebraska the week prior was a bit of an outlier on the rest of their season performances, etc. Ultimately, I could not lay almost double digits with Iowa and the result ended up being what it was, an Iowa destruction. This week, this Minnesota team that I have been down on as a bit of a fraud looks significantly better than Michigan State on paper. why is the line only 3.5? Maybe we're getting residual benefit from the Minnesota blowout loss last week as well as some positive MSU vibes since they covered two weeks in a row(miraculously). I was on the wrong side of both of those late covers for the Spartans and I'll be against them again here. Minnesota's offense has not been good, but they will get class relief here for sure as MSU is significantly worse on that side of the ball than Iowa and Nebraska. Also, the Minnesota defense can stop the run and can get pressure on the QB, which doesn't bode well for the MSU OL and whichever QB they are planning to use. There's also been a lot of instances where Minnesota's final scores "outperform" the box score and I'm sure Fleck will have his team ready to respond after getting worked over so extensively last week.

Minnesota was up 10-0 at half and just played to win by 3 from there. MSU had 200+ yards on 3 plays so their offensive numbers were a bit exaggerated, but PJ Fleck has this weird habit of appearing as though he does NOT want his offense scoring when they are ahead. Even though the numbers looked good for Minnesota, it's probably never a good idea to lay points with them. MSU has gotten me 3 times in a row. I'll try to stop bullying them.
 
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PNGFROM2003 said:
7 games? Thats rookie numbers. I expect to awake to at least 7 more amazing writeups 10 hours from now. Regardless, Im tailing em all. Ok several at least. Good luck as always. Not that youll need it
Im feeling a 70% week outta ya. Dont let me down. Lol. You gonna rake this week!
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Man I ran out of gas and had people at the house last night that wouldn't leave. Don't worry, I'll be playing way too many games this week just like usual :)
 
9. Florida +7 v Georgia (BOL): This one is a situational play for me. Throughout his tenure, Billy Napier has been on the hot seat. We saw it many times when Florida would lose a game badly and appear dead to rights, but then they would right the ship and be back in business. So much so last year that by the end of the season, things were so positive that Florida was on #15 in the preseason AP Poll. Then the bottom fell out early, but Billy survived. It was after a win against Mississippi State that he was pretty abruptly canned. What are we to make of this? my guess is that there were some behind the scenes things either with player relationships/confidence in him or straight up incompetence, and we saw shadows of that on the sideline with some sideline reactions DJ Lagway had with the offensive calls. I think him being gone will be a positive for Florida, and we might see an even better Lagway as a result. Defensively, they are back healthy except for Caleb Banks, but they've been able to pressure teams even without him. I've mentioned my thoughts on Georgia before. They're good, but nothing about them is elite. Especially their pass coverage, 3rd down defense(107th) and ability to pressure the QB. Georgia ranks 130th in sack rate, almost dead last in FBS! As a result, Lagway will be comfortable in the pocket to get it to his weapons, and although a couple of their receivers are out, they have Eugene and Dallas Wilson, who are difference makers and I like Jayden Baugh in the backfield as well. I think Florida gives their max effort here as always in this game. It wouldn't surprise me to see this one in OT.

This was almost another disaster. Florida is covering the game for 59 minutes, and then Georgia is about to run in another score, but thankfully this time Stockton did the right thing and ran the clock out without giving the ball back to the opponent. There might be people saying that their Georgia -7 bet was a "bad beat" but please don't confuse a "bad beat" with an enormously fortunate front door cover. Florida was leading 20-17 in the 4th and they didn't get much at all from their offense, especially Dallas Wilson who only caught one ball for 7 yards. I can't deny this was a fortunate cover but I think Florida was the right side.
 
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love the navy play bro. Instead of messing with the +7 I took the ml then played navy tt ov 28.5 in case they end up losing a shootout. Just feel like there a ton of value getting better than 2-1 for them to win here, game feels pretty much like a toss up to me, agree both offenses gonna have a ton of success. USF qb is prob more talented but after watching him abuse unt d I can’t help but think horvath can do something similar. Big plays thru air and run all over them hopefully.

Agree with the gators play but think I prefer the 1st half just cause Uga penchant for slow starts and coming back on teams. Gotta think gators offense will have the element of surprise early but Kirby usually good figuring shit out/making adjustments that stifle offenses in 2nd halves.

Gl today
 
10. Purdue +21.5 @Michigan(BR) : Michigan has kind of entered the doldrums of their schedule with a bye week coming up next week and then games with Northwestern and Maryland on the road before the final tilt with the Buckeyes. This seems like a sleep spot with Purdue and I think this is a lot of points for Michigan to cover. They haven't sone it in similar spots against clearly inferior competition, having screwed around with the likes of Michigan State, Wisconsin and New Mexico previously. Purdue's major bugaboo is giving up chunk plays in the passing game, but that's not really Michigan's MO. Purdue is pretty good against the run on defense and is surprisingly good on 3rd down(29th) so if they can avoid giving up 60 yard passes, they can hang in this one. Offensively Ryan Browne will be back so they'll be rotating Malachi Singleton at times which has caused some trouble for defenses previously, and Purdue has some back door potential even if they get way behind. I just see this as a bit of a snoozefest for Michigan and I think Purdue will continue to make strides under the new staff.

This one went about how we figured. Purdue played pretty well and Michigan couldn't care less about the game. Cover was never in doubt, and nobody ever thought for a second Purdue would win.
 
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2daBank said:
love the navy play bro. Instead of messing with the +7 I took the ml then played navy tt ov 28.5 in case they end up losing a shootout. Just feel like there a ton of value getting better than 2-1 for them to win here, game feels pretty much like a toss up to me, agree both offenses gonna have a ton of success. USF qb is prob more talented but after watching him abuse unt d I can’t help but think horvath can do something similar. Big plays thru air and run all over them hopefully.

Agree with the gators play but think I prefer the 1st half just cause Uga penchant for slow starts and coming back on teams. Gotta think gators offense will have the element of surprise early but Kirby usually good figuring shit out/making adjustments that stifle offenses in 2nd halves.

Gl today
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Don't hate the ML play at all Bank. They way you've done it is absolutely logical. Not a totals guy but these defenses are going to be behind the 8 ball.
 
Quick couple of points:

I wanted to play K State +7, now 7.5 but I chickened out because my numbers were against it and two people I really trust were on the other side, but I feel like the tide might be turning for the Red Raiders. I don't like only using situational stuff for a play. Had I written it up, it would have been all situational, but here's my fear for people laying with TT. K State has been playing very well lately, especially Avery Johnson, and especially through the air, which for him is new. TT has some guys out again on defense(Skyler Gill Howard being gone for the year is big) but the biggest issue for them is at QB. Will Hammond has been very active this year because Behren Morton is always hurt. Well, Howard was a solid backup but he's out for the year now. If they lose Morton again, which is likely, they'll be down to Mitch Griffis, their 3rd stringer. He played last week and looked fine, but that was against Okie State in a controlled scrimmage. Griffis used to be at Wake, and if anyone watched him they know he is among the most incompetent QBs around. Unless McGuire did some kind of voodoo magic on him, Tech CANNOT win with him. If Morton gets hurt in Manhattan and that game is close, K State is winning. With Morton they are fine and I lean to them, but they better hope he doesn't get hurt.
 
11. Oklahoma +3(-120) @Tennessee(BOL): This +3 is currently -120 but I think more people are going to be on the Vols so this juice will probably stabilize to -110 at some point. When I first saw this line I was excited to find evidence to back the Vols here, but I didn't really find a lot. I actually kind of prefer the Sooners going on the road here, maybe even better than the situation they would be looking at if this game was at home coming off that Ole Miss game. They've gone on the road twice in true road games, and they've had no issues either time. First it was a complete dismantling of a Temple team that has turned out to be pretty good, especially at home and the second time they completely took South Carolina out of the game and bludgeoned them. They stepped up in class against the Ole Miss offense last week, but this defense is legit, and I think it poses a major threat for Joey Aguilar. They are #1 in the country in every pressure statistic you want to cite. Joey Aguilar is going to see pressure, and he's been successful this year against defenses that can't provide it (Georgia, Arkansas, Mississippi State, etc). His past history is littered with bad turnovers when under pressure and he's going to see that today. Also, this Tennessee defense is not good. As a result, Tennessee was only able to sneak by lesser teams and they gave up almost 500 yards last week to Cutter Boley and Kentucky. Mateer and the Sooners have not been good offensively, but they are good enough to move the ball here and I think they'll have success both on the ground and through the air with Burks and Sategna. This is a must win for the Sooners off a loss as well. It'll be a madhouse, but nothing Oklahoma hasn't seen. Sooners have edges in a lot of areas in this one, I like them getting a FG.

OU was ahead at halftime and were lucky to be there, but sometimes we look at fumble return TDs as lucky...that one wasn't lucky. Sack, fumble and the one handed scoop, stiffarm and return by R Mason Thomas was a helluva play. Sooners had 220+ yards in the second half and made the plays to win. Solid effort by the Sooners here even though they were outgained by about 100 yards.
 
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12. @Nebraska +5 v USC (BR): Line value has vanished, but this must be played. Lincoln Riley has never covered a game at USC in the Central or Eastern time zones. Have you heard that one? I'm sure I'm the first to tell you. He's 1-9 ATS as a road favorite regardless of where the game is, but he's been pathetic in these spots. In addition to that, I think there's some matchup positivity for Nebraska here. The Huskers main issue on defense is in the run game, and USC although good at that as well, is very banged up at RB and on the OL. They make their bones through the air with Maiava and those receivers(especially Makai Lemon), but Nebraska has been fabulous in their pass defense. They are 3rd in the country in yards per pass attempt, and although they haven't played a pass offense like USC's, they held Cincinnati, the 10th ranked pass offense in yards per attempt and #4 in passer rating to 69 passing yards in 25 attempts. There's some legitimacy behind that ranking. Also, the USC defense plays hard only in fits and starts, and they've had all kinds of trouble covering people and Nebraska has been able to have success in the passing game(29th). It's going to be around 40 degrees in Lincoln, not ideal. If USC figures it out and has a great effort tonight, as I said many times and as Mike Tyson once said, I'll take my hand off to them, but until I see it, I'm betting against it.

USC probably loses outright if Raiola didn't get hurt because the backup for Nebraska was helpless. Nebraska gave up yards on the ground as always, but that pass defense was indeed legit. 9/23 for 135 yards for Maiava. That for sure will be his worst output of the year. Nebraska has to be kicking themselves to have that kind of pass defense performance and lose. But they covered!
 
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Seeing a lot of these the same way and tailing on a few others. I'm a little worried about how much I like this card. GL Br@ss!
 
gps_3 said:
Seeing a lot of these the same way and tailing on a few others. I'm a little worried about how much I like this card. GL Br@ss!
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Agreed GPS, sometimes the best way to feel about a card is "meh". I've been conflicted on some games that I left off. I've had a bad year in terms of passing on games I liked and then they come through.
 
13. Kentucky +11.5 @Auburn (BR): Can we trust Auburn to cover this? I'm saying no. I think they made a smart move to see what Ashton Daniels can do, because we kind of know what Jackson Arnold is. They responded last week, but Daniels just avoided turning it over and kicked FGs on short fields more than anything else. Kentucky had been a non-entity on offense during most of the year, but it looks like they've found something with Cutter Boley. They aren't great, but they had a ton of yards at home against Tennessee last week and the week before that they got 395 yards against a great defense in Texas. Defensively, they completely stymied Texas 2 weeks ago and I think Auburn's offense is more in line with that one, and the Kentucky defense, which has been pretty good against the run, should be looking to redeem themselves after getting torched by the Vols. Kentucky also fell under an avalanche of turnovers last week, s chances are they'll see some regression there. This is a lot of points for Auburn to cover with a fragile offense.

Outright win for the Cats. Auburn's offense is bad regardless of who plays QB it appears. Both teams had 240 yards total. tossup on th winner and we had the points with us.
 
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14. @Utah -10(-120) v Cincinnati (BOL): Cincinnati has only gone on the road twice, and they were relatively easy places to play. They beat Kansas in an outstanding offensive performance early in the year and then sleepwalked through a layup at Oklahoma State. Everything else has been at home. Cincy has positioned themselves well in the Big 12 race with an undefeated conference record, but this is their 6th week playing in a row and they are way overdue for a setback type performance. The scenario kind of reminds me of Illinois going out to Washington last week. If you're Illinois, despite your new lot in life and how you can rationalize he matchup, you aren't winning at Washington and it probably won't be all that close. Same thing with this trip to Utah for Cincy. I think they know they're due for a loss, and Utah is a bad matchup for them. Utah is 6th in yards per pass against, and top RB Evan Pryor, who provides explosive runs for them looks like he'll be out. Defensively they haven't been all that good all year, and Utah should be able to run on them. This is just a bad matchup at a bad time for Cincy. I think they'll be looking at this one as a "let's get out of here and fight another day" kind of game. They're still alive for the Big 12 even if they lose this one. Utah on the other hand cannot afford another loss. Going with the Utes here.

The boxscore wasn't that bad for Cincy, but they couldn't get any stops and a going away victory was inevitable for the Utes.
 
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Go brass!

Cincinnati did play Nebraska at Arrowhead which was considered a home game for Cinci for some reason but I pretty much toss those week 1 games out pretty quickly come this time of year. Terrible spot for Cincinnati...altitude, 10:15 Eastern start time at that venue. Just think nothing lines up right for the Bearcats here. They likely need to outscore the Utes and nothing about the environment says they should do that.
 
KJ said:
Go brass!

Cincinnati did play Nebraska at Arrowhead which was considered a home game for Cinci for some reason but I pretty much toss those week 1 games out pretty quickly come this time of year. Terrible spot for Cincinnati...altitude, 10:15 Eastern start time at that venue. Just think nothing lines up right for the Bearcats here. They likely need to outscore the Utes and nothing about the environment says they should do that.
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Thanks KJ. I agree woth everything you're saying here. Very tough spot for the Bearcats.
 
That VT game...I swear I've had it with these front door covers. And VT can go fuck themselves as far as I'm concerned. Zero for the year in their games regardless of which side I'm on. The final drive was about the most spineless bit of defense you'll see. Louisville is trying to just run out the clock, and you still have a chance to win the game with a stop. A field goal is fine. 5 consecutive runs and a TD. See ya later. Up 16-7 at the half and you go into the fetal position for the remainder of the game. I'm still holding out hope that after about 2 dozen of those I'll finally get one of these front door covers. Trust me, when I get one, I'll shout about it from the rooftops.
 
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It ended up as a nice week, got a few breaks on some of the games and avoided at least one bad one. 10-4, best week for these writeups in awhile which brings the season total back to 69-70-4, almost .500.

Since I'm a YouTubeTV subscriber, I didn't get to see a second of a lot of these games. I'm a consumer of ESPN+ and the ESPN app which I pay every month for, but you do not get access to the games on the primary ESPN networks even then if you subscribe to a non-carrier of their TV networks. My initial reaction was to get pissed off at YouTube/Google. but this is a nefarious move by Disney. They clearly are using this to bully YTTV out of the streaming game because they own all of the reasonable non-pirated streaming alternatives. They already owned Hulu and on Wednesday, in preparation for this standoff, they quietly bought FUBO. So now, they have no incentive at all, and actually a business incentive to NOT negotiate with Google on this. Not that I would ever have any sympathy for Google, but this sucks for a guy who likes college football and doesn't want to switch off YTTV. One of the best things about YTTV is that they have unlimited "DVR". I record every college football game and can watch whatever part of any game I want in two minutes. They don't have additional ads and you can fast forward right to any point in the game. Peacock for example makes you sit through every commercial and then some even if you're watching a replay of the game which makes rewatching it completely impossible. If I want to see a certain play in the second half of a Peacock game, it makes me sit through every commercial break before I get there, and they are full breaks. It's ridiculous. YTTV was the best for that. I'm hoping they still allow the condensed games on YouTube, but I'm skeptical of that too.

Had to rant about that. Recaps coming.
 
Great week!
I couldn't agree with you more about YTTV and Disney. I also have espn+ and I think it's absolute bullshit that you aren't allowed to use an app that you pay for because YTTV is your provider. Refund my monthly premium of you are going to disable the app for YTTV subscribers. 🤬
 
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