Week 10 Writeups and Hopefully Feedback

Br@ssknux

Br@ssknux

Pretty much a regular
It was a good week last week...my faith in all that is good in the world was restored, especially after Sean Clifford cashed in on a clutch TD late to turn the result of the PSU/OSU game from "horrific beat" to "appropriate result". That contributed to an 8-4 week, which brings my season long total to 66-63. I need a couple more weeks like that to actually result in a worthwhile endeavor, but we are running out of time!

I mentioned this at the end of last week's thread, but I'll never write a better writeup than the last two from last week. (Tennessee and UCLA). Lord knows I have a ton of misses, but it was good for the psyche to have a couple go according to plan.

I usually try to keep these in chronological order, but I'm going to start with the headliner game because I already bet it and I'm afraid the public is going to move this line overnight.

Tennessee +8 LOSS
Maryland +5 LOSS No show for the Terps.
Iowa +4 WIN
Missouri +1 LOSS
Western Kentucky -16 WIN
Baylor +3.5 WIN
Kansas pk WIN
Memphis +3.5 LOSS
Navy +18.5 WIN
Liberty +14.5 WIN
Kansas State +3 LOSS
Boise State -8 LOSS
Florida State -7.5 WIN
James Madison +7 LOSS
Arizona +17.5 LOSS ---Arizona now on the Do Not Play list

7-8

1. Tennessee +8 @Georgia: I'm on the square side here, but I don't care because I think the squares are correct here, and laying this many points against this Tennessee team seems unjustifiable to me. The only MNC futures ticket I own is on Georgia, so I definitely have a healthy respect for their squad, but there are some things that seem like warning signs here. Georgia has had too many questionable performances, be it the Mizzou game, where I spent the entire game waiting for Georgia to impose themselves on the Tigers to no avail or the Kent game, which at times appeared to be inconculsive as to who the more physical team was. This Tennessee offense is a machine, and due to the speed in which they play, they are extremely difficult to simulate in practice. Now that Cedric Tillman is healthy, Tennessee has 3 well above average WRs that can make big plays, with Tillman added to Jaylin Hyatt and Bruton McCoy. They key to stopping Hooker, like many pass offenses is to pressure him, because if you allow him to stand back there, one of those receivers is going to break open, and it allows him to default to the deep throw, which is when the Vols are at their best. Georgia has struggled to generate pressure all year, coming in at 119th in sack rate. It's possible that Georgia might come up with some sort of coverage scheme to offset the lack of pressure, but this offense is leaps and bounds better than anyone they've faced since the opener against Oregon, and that was the first game for an Oregon offense that is much better now than it was then. Defensively, Tennessee definitely has their work cut out for them, especially as they try to stop Brock Bowers, but they have fared much better lately and they are among the best in the country at stopping the run, and they have excelled on 3rd down. This is going to put a lot of pressure on Stetson Bennett to convert 3rd and medium. I think highly of Bennett, but that's asking a lot. Also, when it comes down to this spread, we have to consider game scripts. In order to lay 8 and be comfortable, Georgia is going to have to be up by 14+ in the later stages of the 4th quarter to be safe from what would be an almost inevitable backdoor TD from the Vols. Is anyone else skeptical of that being a high probability? It might happen, but I like Tennessee's chances of winning this game outright better than Georgia being ahead far enough to be immune to a backdoor.
 
Last edited:
Re-wrote the back half of the Tennessee play as I didn't like how late night me worded the original.
 
2. Maryland +5 @Wisconsin: This play of course is predicated on Young Tagovailoa playing, but it appears he is probable as of now. Ultimately, when you stack these two teams up with each other this year, Maryland has been the better team. Wisconsin has improved lately on defense, but this has not been a vintage Wisconsin defense, especially against the pass. The Terps come in with a solid passing attack, one that has moved the ball on pretty much everyone, including Michigan, and Wisconsin has not shown much ability to pressure the QB(111th in sack rate) so Tagovailoa should have plenty of time to work. Usually by now, Maryland is dead and buried under the rigors of a Big Ten schedule, but they've proven themselves to be much more resilient than in years past. They've been solid defensively, both against the run and the pass on a per play basis. Their bugaboo has been on 3rd down, but the Badgers are only mediocre in that regard on offense, and Graham Mertz has a rough time trying to fit throws into tight windows, which is required against this Terps secondary because they can cover. Overall, I think Maryland has a great shot at winning this one outright, so I'll definitely take the 5.
 
3. Iowa +4(-115) @Purdue: As everyone knows, I love playing Purdue as a dog, especially at home, but not as a favorite as they are here this week. For all of the deserved shit that Iowa takes for their horrific offense, they are going to catch a bit of a break this week, specifically against this Purdue pass defense. In their FBS games this year, Iowa has faced the #1, #2, #15, #16 and #33 pass defenses on a per pass attempt basis. Obviously they haven't fared well in those games. However, in the two cases where they faced mediocre of worse pass defenses, they've averaged more than 7 yards per attempt. This week they face the worst pass defense they've seen so far, Purdue, who is ranked 113th in yards per attempt against. That's worse than Northwestern, who Spencer Petras actually looked pretty good against last week (21-30, 220 yards, 1TD/0 INT). An actual average passing performance! Also, we can't forget that this Iowa defense is elite. Also, heavy wind is forecast for West Lafayette tomorrow along with some rain, so that will handicap Purdue's ability to throw. In the past couple years, Purdue has owned Iowa, but the main culprit in that endeavor was David Bell, who torched the Hawkeyes two years in a row. Also, Aiden O'Connell, though a productive QB, has been much more careless with his throws, especially lately, having thrown 7 picks in his last 4 games. He's forcing things into tight windows, and that is death against this Iowa defense, one which is very adept at stepping into passing lanes. I think there's a good chance that Iowa's bad luck against the Boilers comes to an end this week.
 
4. @Missouri +1 v Kentucky: I grabbed this one earlier this week at 2.5 and I think I'd probably go so far as lay a field goal with the Tigers here. I'm a bit biased because Missouri has been good to me, but their defense has proven to be legit. They rank favorably in virtually every defensive category, including 15th in yards per play, 26th in yards per rush and 11th in yards per pass attempt. Kentucky's offensive line proved last week that they are beyond hope, possibly as bad as any OL in the Power 5, and Missouri has a very solid front 7. The Cats can't run the ball and they are near the bottom of the FBS in sack rate allowed(128th). Defensively, the Cats are decent, but the Missouri offense is much better at home and stacks up well against the Kentucky pass defense. Kentucky is coming off an ass whooping last week, and things look to be falling apart a bit while Missouri is gaining momentum under Drinkwitz. I'll go with what appears to me to be the better team at home, both on paper and via the eye test.
 
5. Western Kentucky -16 @Charlotte: Had this game been played a few weeks ago, WKU would probably be somewhere in the neighborhood of a 28 point favorite. As i stands, Charlotte is coming off a remarkable road blowout of Rice(???) and WKU had just about everything go wrong in a 40-13 loss to the Mean Green as a 10.5 point favorite. As it stands, Charlotte ranks either dead last or close to it in every defensive category, while the Hilltoppers sport an above average offense with Austin Reed at QB (70% completions, 21/5 ratio). How bad is Charlotte's defense? In 7 of their 9 games, the opposing offense had their highest yardage output of the year. Luckily for them, the Hilltoppers piled up 688 yards against FIU earlier this year, so that trend probably won't hold, but if it does, yikes. Defensively, the Hilltoppers will have to deal with a solid QB in Chris Reynolds, but they are 26th in pass defense and they'll be able to pressure him all day, as they do a great job sacking the QB(12th) while Charlotte can't predictably struggles to keep Reynolds upright. If Reynolds happens to get hurt, which has happened in 3 different games this year, the ballgame will be over because Charlotte's backup QBs are among the worst in the country. Also, all of Charlotte's competent efforts have been on the road, and every game coming off their decent performances has been followed by a clunker. I don't like laying more than 2 scores in any situation, but there looks to be a lot of value in this instance at 16.
 
6. Baylor +3.5 @Oklahoma: Oklahoma has won a couple games in a row, but the warning signs are still there for the Sooners, especially on defense . Last week, they help Iowa State to 13 points, which looks like progress, but that was mostly due to turnover luck and bad 4th down play calls for the Cyclones as QB Dekker threw for more than 300 yards and the Cyclones outgained the Sooners in the process. Prior to that, the Sooner defense has given up an average of more than 550 yards in their previous 4 games, and they still rank 100th against the run and 99th on 3rd down. Baylor QB Blake Shapen has been efficient, averaging 8.4 yards per attempt and completing 67% of his passes, and he won't see much pressure from this OU pass rush, as they've had all kinds of trouble getting to the QB in Big 12 games. It's also tough for Qbs to have success the first time against a Dave Aranda defense, as Caleb Williams found out for the Sooners last year. Gabriel is going to have to light up the scoreboard here, and I trust this Baylor defense to give him problems while their offense keeps the chains moving. Baylor looks like the better team to me in this one. There's major edges for Baylor when the Bears have the ball, and I handicap this one a stalemate when the Sooners have it. I'll take the FG+ in that instance.
 
7. @Kansas pk v Oklahoma State: Can I cash two tickets in a row against Mike Gundy? Can I do it with my boys, the Kansas Jayhawks, a team I admit I have a very strong affinity toward? Well, we're about to find out because, as usual, I see some value with the Jayhawks. As I figured might happen, all of the good fortune the Cowboys had enjoyed throughout the season got taken back from them in one brutal beatdown last week. That game with K State has left them totally banged up. There's rumors that Spencer Sanders will not be available this week as well as many other starters on both sides of the ball. This is a team that even when healthy has been having success using what appears to be smoke and mirrors. Other than on 3rd down, OSU doesn't rank higher than 72nd in any meaningful category. Now they are banged up and facing a very well coached team coming off a bye at home in a game they have to have if they want to cash in on a rare bowl opportunity. The Jayhawks are at 5 wins, but since they have road games with Texas Tech and Kansas State and a home game with Texas left, it would behoove them to get that 6th win under their belt while they have a good opportunity. It looks like they'll finally get Jadon Daniels back, but even if they don't Jason Bean is a solid backup and either one will have some new Lance Leipold voodoo to unleash on the Cowboys. Really good spot for the Jayhawks here.
 
Good luck this week, I echo your sentiments re Tenn-Georgia. Georgia D is solid but it’s not “explosive” like it was last year. You correctly touch on the sack rate, I’d add that the Dawgs are also towards the bottom of the pack when it comes to tackles for loss
 
8. @ Memphis +3.5 v UCF: This is a good spot for Memphis. UCF is coming off of an emotional and hard fought win over Cincinnati, which represents the first conference loss for Cincinnati in the American conference since since Memphis beat them twice in 2019. It also resulted in UCF re-entering the AP poll at number 25. The spot reminds me a lot of the spot UCF found themselves in a couple weeks ago when they lost decisively to at East Carolina: road game against a team that can throw it effectively but also stops the run, which is UCF's bread and butter. There's a chance that backup Mikey Keene will be playing QB for UCF if John Rhys Plumlee can't go, but in either case, I like Memphis. I've played against Memphis in each of the last two games, and they burned me once when they took ECU to OT and they almost came back for the backdoor cover after being down 35-0 two weeks ago at Tulane. They're coming off a bye, and they throw the ball effectively with QB Seth Henigan, something that UCF has struggled with. Some much less effective passing offenses than Memphis have had their way with UCF, including Georgia Tech and ECU, who both threw for more than 300 yards. We should also remember that Memphis hasn't lost ATS as a home dog in 5+ years, and Ryan Silverfield is 4-0 in that role with all four of those being outright wins.
 
9. Navy +18.5 @Cincinnati: I would have liked to have gotten the +20 that was available a couple days ago, but this will do. The Bearcats are coming off 3 consecutive non-covers, including failing to cover by 23 points in their last home game against USF. This week, they tee it up with Navy looking to bounce back after winning something like 19 consecutive American Conference games. We all know what the benefits are in backing a service academy team like Navy as an 18 point favorite. Even in these past 2 years, which have been leaner than usual under Niamatulolo, Navy has gone 7-2 as a double digit underdog, including a 7 point loss as a 27 point dog last year against Cincinnati. Surprisingly enough, I think navy will actually have the advantage in the trenches when Cincy has the ball, as Navy ranks 33rd against the run and the Cincy offensive line has struggled to run it and has given up plenty of sacks of the immobile Ben Bryant. Navy's Achilles heel on defense is the pass, but Ben Bryant has been very inconsistent throwing the ball this year. Navy's QB Tai Lavatai is injured, but I don't think there's a dropoff at all with new QB Xavier Arline, who has played before. This shapes up to be a repeat of the type of game these two teams played last year. This is a bit of a sandwich spot for Cincy, coming off the UCF loss and with a date against fellow American contender East Carolina next week on a short week. It shapes up to be a good spot for Navy in a role they seldom choke on.
 
10. Liberty +14.5 @Arkansas: After a 3 game losing streak that culminated in a 40-17 beating at the hands of Mississippi State, Arkansas has looked lethal on offense, and it's no wonder, as QB KJ Jefferson returned from injury. Off a nice win at Auburn, the Hogs now have this game with Liberty ahead of their next one, a home date with rival LSU. To say this is a sandwich spot is an understatement, and it's a tough assignment as well for several reasons. First, Liberty is one of the best road underdogs in FBS as they've covered 8 of their 9 games in that role since the beginning of 2020, and they've lost only once this year, a 1 point defeat at wake Forest in September. Second, Liberty probably has the best defense the Hogs have played this year, other than Alabama and Cincinnati. The Flames rank 20th in yards per play against, 34th against he run, 21st in yards per pass attempt against and 9th in 3rd down conversions. They'll also pressure Jefferson when he throws as they rank 7th nationally in sack rate. Offensively, they are down to their 3rd string QB Jonathan Bennett who has also battled the flu this week, but he's been cleared to play. Bennett got off to a rough start, but the Flames are undefeated with him under center and he's improved every week, culminating in their win against BYU in which he presided over an offense that gained 500+ yards and scored 41 points. Although I'm sure that Arkansas will have a lot of success with Jefferson on offense, the Hogs defense remains one of the worst in Power 5, ranking 119th in yards per play, 105th against the run, 117th against the pass and 123rd on 3rd down. If you're going to give me 14.5 points with a resourceful underdog, who can play some defense and is playing a bored opponent who can't get off the field on defense, I'm pretty interested in those points.
 
11. @Kansas State +3(-114) v Texas: A lot of people that whose opinion I trust are on the Longhorns here, and for the predictable reasons. Texas has 3 losses but they're still in people's top 8 or 10 in their Power Ratings because Texas could easily be 8-0 or whatever. I'll buy that they should have won the Alabama game, I agree that they were screwed in that game and would have won if not for the QB injuries. But the Texas Tech and Oklahoma State losses? This are just 2 more examples of Texas continuing their trend of finding ways to lose on the road, regardless of their talent advantage over their opponent. The trend started before Sark, but since Sarkisian has been there Texas is 1-6 on the road straight up and 1-3 as a road favorite. They're going up against one of the most resourceful ATS coaches in FBS in Chis Klieman, and even if Adrian Martinez doesn't play(most assume he'll be in there), Will Howard can move the ball well enough to get the job done as well. Texas is pretty good in the trenches, but I think the K State lines will have the edge in this one, and the weather is calling for wind and some rain, so K State will be right at home running the ball like they always plan to do. Quinn Ewers got off to a great start, but there's been some question marks with him, and he hasn't shown(along with the rest of the Texas roster and coaching staff) that he can be effective on the road. I can't resist snatching these points with a solid home dog against a team that can;t get out of it's own way when they play on the road.
 
12. @Boise -8 v BYU: Delay in grabbing this line has cost me a point, but even at 8, I think Boise handles things here. The Broncos underwent a metamorphosis a few weeks ago when they launched offensive coordinator Tim Plough after their embarrassing loss to UTEP in which they gained less than 200 yards. Not only did they get rid of Plough and rid themselves of that terrible scheme, they were able to get old pal and previous hero Dirk Koetter to come out of retirement for a bit to run the offense. The results have been great, especially since they also were fortunate enough to see long time underachiever Hank Bachmeier leave for the transfer portal. Since backup Taylen Green took over the helm, the Broncos have been a different team on offense, and they'll have the pleasure of going against the non threatening defense of BYU, a team that can't stop a soul on that side of the ball. Defensively, Boise has been predictably good all year, ranking 4th in yards per play, 8th in rush offense, 38 in yards per pass attempt and 3rd in sacks. I think Boise will have a clear edge on both sides of the ball, and they have a Mountain West title in their grasp. Although BYU always plays with a chip on their shoulder, you have to wonder if they know how to fix this defense, which is now down to the low 100's in most measurable categories BYU has a knack for playing over their heads at times, but all the data tells you Boise is easily the choice between these 2 team at a reasonable number.
 
Wow, we're on a LOT of the same sides here Brass. Two I haven't bet, and on the other side in the Wiscy game.

Good luck today!
 
13. Florida State -7.5 @Miami: It's been a terrible season for the Canes this year, which is somewhat of a surprise to me based on how good QB Tyler Van Dyke looked last year. Changes in scheme can change everything though, and we probably shouldn't be surprised that Mario Cristobal has shackled another quarterback. Offensively, Miami has been terrible in whatever way you slice it. They can't run it(115th), they are weak in yards per play(93rd) and their passing performance has been weak as well(83rd). Even worse, most of the success they've had passing the ball is either against horrible pass defenses, when they were several scores down, or both(MTSU for example). Defensively, they are even worse. They've been good against the run on paper, but when you examine their schedule, you see that the run offenses they've faced include the 117th, 114th, 101st, 96th and 91st run offenses. The only good one they've faced is Duke(20th) and naturally, Duke ran for 200 yards on them. FSU's rush offense will be by far the best they've seen(19th) and FSU has done that against a schedule miles better than Miami's.(Seriously, I don't want to document it here, but take a look at those two schedules side by side) Even though I think FSU will be able to run all over the Canes defense, that's not even the biggest mismatch. The biggest mismatch would be the passing game, where Miami's defense comes in at 118th in yards per attempt against. Even though Miami actually leads the nation in sack rate, they STILL rank 118th in yards per pass attempt, which means they give up big passing plays by the bushel. FSU with Johnny Wilson and their fleet of receivers is more than capable of pulling off those big plays here. I've been on FSU a lot this year because of their good numbers in just about every category. On paper, the only edge I see for Miami is that they might sack Jordan Travis a couple times, but the pressure they exert hasn't resulted in turnovers or wins because their coverage downfield is so bad. It's a rivalry game, so there's risk in laying too many points on one side, but this is such a mismatch on paper that I can't pass it up. I could probably go on for another paragraph, but I'd just be belaboring the point.
 
14. James Madison +7 @Louisville: This play is 100% predicated on JMU QB Todd Centaio playing. If he does not play, I will not be bailing on this bet, even if the line moves 7 points. All signs point to him playing however, so I'm making that assumption in the write up, and for good reason because he has been one of the most efficient QBs in the country this year. Louisville has struggled to stop the pass all year, and when they've had any success it's been due to the opponent's incompetence. Even some incompetent offenses have thrived, as both Virginia and Boston College(yes, that Boston College) have thrown for 300 yards against them. JMU leads the nation in rush defense, and although they have played much weaker run offenses than Louisville, #1 is #1, and that's the game that Louisville needs to play on offense. Most importantly though in this game is the spot for Louisville. This is a sandwich game between games with #10(at the time) Wake Forest and their tilt next week against Clemson. JMU is definitely a tough team to sneak in there, especially when we consider that nobody has ever accused this Louisville program of being the sharpest knives in the drawer in recent years. They also benefitted from some of the best turnover luck any team has ever had last week in that Wake game, when the Demon Deacons turned it over 6 TIMES in one quarter! Extremes like that have a way of evening out quickly, and all signs point to a less than stellar focus from the Cards in this one.
 
15, Arizona +17.5 @Utah: Since their opener at San Diego State, I haven't had good luck backing the Wildcats when they are dogged, but this is a situation that just looks like too much value to me to pass up, despite my respect for the long term competence of Kyle Whittingham and the Utes. In the short term however, it's easy to notice that the Ute staff's attention to detail isn't the same as it's been historically, and that is especially true on the defensive side of the ball this year. Make no mitake, Utah will score a lot on this Arizona defense, Everybody does, and a QB as good as Cam Rising (and I'm assuming he plays)certainly won't have any difficulty doing it either. However, I'm skeptical that Utah can get off the field against this Arizona offense. Utah has the edge in every category when the Utes have the ball, but the same is true for the Wildcats. Utah is 100th or worse in all 3 categories on a per play basis, and the only things they are decent at(3rd down defense and getting pressure on the QB) are strengths to a larger degree for the Arizona offense. The only thing I'd like to see from Jedd Fisch is Jacob Cowing being sent downfield more often, rather than just giving him high volume Rondale Moore style "get it in his hands" screen passes. I think Arizona will score plenty in this one, making 17 1/2 a tough nut to crack for the Utes.
 
AliShaheed said:
How you feeling about your Cal Bears tonight?
Click to expand...
Good question. Typically an auto play for me, and 21 is a lot of points, but that Cal defense has really dropped off. Typically Cal would cover games in this role because they could be trusted to play some solid defense, but I'm afraid USC will be able to throw on them at will, and Jack Plummer is going to be taking sacks all night. Laying off the Bears this week. Watch them take USC to the wire. I'd love to see it, but I won't be betting on it this time.
 
That's going to be it for writeups, but I figure I'll give some thoughts on some near misses:

I think 24 is a lot for this current San Jose State version (it wasn't 3 weeks ago), and Colorado State can play a little bit of defense, but they are so bad offensively that I can't bring myself to write them up.

I lean a lot to NC State, especially since they moved off Jack What's his name in favor of the 4 star freshman they have. He threw the ball very well on a good VT pass defense in their comeback win last week, but the NC State defense hasn't been as good as their reputation and Wake has torched them in recent years. Would not lay with Wake here though because I think NC State would be very live in the dog role.

Rutgers always fails to cover as a home dog, but I'm tired of laying with Michigan. I had a light bet on them last week but got a bad number so the constant FGs burned me and they also couldn't pull away from Maryland earlier. Just not interested in watching them kick Fgs again when I need them to cover a big number.

Thought about Auburn since they seem like a good candidate to have a great effort like other teams with fired coaches(and especially with Cadillac taking over) have had, but their defense has been so bad that I can't pull the trigger.

My numbers say Bama should roll against LSU, and LSU is due to come back to earth and be consistently inconsistent after a couple nice efforts, but Bama has been so unreliable in true road games lately that the numbers lie with them sometimes.

LaLa is a great home dog, and I like their chances this week against Troy, but that line was at 6 all week so I can't justify taking only 3.

South Alabama should roll against that terrible Georgia Southern defense, but Clay Helton has killed me this year, despite getting abused like I thought he would in the box score. Not going down that road again.

UAB looks good to me, but although UTSA can't be trusted to cover a big number, they definitely can be trusted to win. Also, the bloom seems to have faded off UAB's rose since Bill Clark isn't on the sidelines. UAB would have to win to cover, and I don't trust them to do that against Traylor.

Illinois should roll, but Bielema shuts down the offense when they get up. Just about every win they've had was more severe in the box score than the final score, so 16 seems about right.

I like Temple as a home dog(who wouldn't be interested in fading USF as a road favorite?) but that offense is BAD.

Virginia would be a play if their offense had a pulse, and it probably would have been at 7 or more, but not under a TD. Drake Maye will score on anybody, and I could see UVa hanging and then falling apart late under Tony Elliott. I'd pull the plug on that one pretty quick if I was in the UVa admin.

Tulane should roll, but I don't want to go to the well too often there, and it's a bit of a trap spot. Backup QB likely in there for Tulsa so it actually makes Tulane more attractive, but I just have a bad feeling about that one.

I like UCLA, but the new kid playing QB for ASU looks like the real deal, so I can see UCLA being stuck on a 17/10 game script, and the back door will likely be wide open for a team that's engaged now. ASU will only stop UCLA if UCLA allows themselves to be stopped however,

That's it. I hope everyone has a great week!!!
 
Br@ssknux said:
I lean a lot to NC State, especially since they moved off Jack What's his name in favor of the 4 star freshman they have. He threw the ball very well on a good VT pass defense in their comeback win last week, but the NC State defense hasn't been as good as their reputation and Wake has torched them in recent years. Would not lay with Wake here though because I think NC State would be very live in the dog role.
Click to expand...
I agree with this, but played the game total over and Thayer Thomas over receiving yards instead of NCSU. NCSU will score.
 
Br@ssknux said:
5. Western Kentucky -16 @Charlotte: Had this game been played a few weeks ago, WKU would probably be somewhere in the neighborhood of a 28 point favorite. As i stands, Charlotte is coming off a remarkable road blowout of Rice(???) and WKU had just about everything go wrong in a 40-13 loss to the Mean Green as a 10.5 point favorite. As it stands, Charlotte ranks either dead last or close to it in every defensive category, while the Hilltoppers sport an above average offense with Austin Reed at QB (70% completions, 21/5 ratio). How bad is Charlotte's defense? In 7 of their 9 games, the opposing offense had their highest yardage output of the year. Luckily for them, the Hilltoppers piled up 688 yards against FIU earlier this year, so that trend probably won't hold, but if it does, yikes. Defensively, the Hilltoppers will have to deal with a solid QB in Chris Reynolds, but they are 26th in pass defense and they'll be able to pressure him all day, as they do a great job sacking the QB(12th) while Charlotte can't predictably struggles to keep Reynolds upright. If Reynolds happens to get hurt, which has happened in 3 different games this year, the ballgame will be over because Charlotte's backup QBs are among the worst in the country. Also, all of Charlotte's competent efforts have been on the road, and every game coming off their decent performances has been followed by a clunker. I don't like laying more than 2 scores in any situation, but there looks to be a lot of value in this instance at 16.
Click to expand...
Thank you
 
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