Week 10 Writeups and Hopefully Feedback

[Br@ssknux]

8-6 was the total for last week although I wouldn't be true to my inner whiny handicapper if I didn't mention that the FSU debacle ruined some pretty good momentum. That brings the season long total to 68-50 with a couple pushes (.5762). I'll need some hot weeks here in the home stretch if I want to get to 60%.

Air Force -2.5 LOSS
Wake Forest +2.5 LOSS
Ohio State -14 LOSS
Memphis +5 WIN
Wisconsin -13 WIN
Michigan State -3 LOSS
Oklahoma State -3.5 WIN
Kentucky +1.5 LOSS
Boise State +5 WIN
Alabama -28 LOSS (and I am convinced there were imposters in the Alabama uniforms)
Louisville +3.5 LOSS
Washington +7 LOSS
UTEP +11.5 LOSS


4-9


1. Air Force -2.5 v Army: When two service academies get together, we can usually expect a low scoring game because both teams defenses are used to playing against the style of their opponent because that's what they match up with every day in practice, and they can replicate the triple option. As a result we can expect both defense to have success against the corresponding offenses, and both are good rush defenses anyway, ranking 28th(Army) and 36th(Air Force). However, the major difference between the two teams lies in their pass defenses. Army has had all kinds of trouble stopping the pass, and although throwing the ball is not Air Force's primary MO, they've always been able to throw the ball when necessary, and they do it efficiently. On the flip side, Air Force is as good stopping the pass as they are in stopping the run, which is a far cry from what Army is capable of with their pass defense. Air Force has the much better defense, and Haaziq Daniels is a capable thrower who can make plays in the passing game if necessary. Daniels is questionable, but even if he sits this out, there is enough on the Air Force offense to be able to score on Army's 108th ranked defense.

 

[2daBank]

I think AF qb is actually a pretty decent thrower this year. He shredded wyo on a couple dives on straight drop backs few weeks ago, I was impressed.

 

[KJ]

Yeah think I'd prefer AFA side to the under this go round. GL this week Brass.

 

[s--k]

Daniels for Air Force is practicing. He left and did not return vs San Diego State. So good news for them.
Anderson for Army is also practicing. Army is comfortable with and can play multiple QBs but Anderson was their game breaker vs Miami Oh. Laws will play regardless, he is the passer and has been good in that role.

 

[s--k]

Army has played some of the best passing Os in the country though, just for context. WKU#1, Wake #14. When Air Force played a good passing O in Utah State, they too were shredded (448, 9y per completion).

 

[Br@ssknux]

Army has played some of the best passing Os in the country though, just for context. WKU#1, Wake #14. When Air Force played a good passing O in Utah State, they too were shredded (448, 9y per completion).

Thanks for the injury update my man. I have to ask, where do you go for injury updates? Sometimes I waste a lot of time looking to see the latest on injuries but have trouble finding any info, especially on the lower division teams.

Good point about about the strength of opponents for the two teams. My point was that I'm more comfortable being on the Air Force side when it comes to the passing game. Both teams can be had by good passing attacks, but even though Laws can throw, Air Force is the more likely team to have success in the passing game v Army's defense than vice versa.

 

[Br@ssknux]

Will have more this afternoon.

 

[s--k]

Thanks for the injury update my man. I have to ask, where do you go for injury updates? Sometimes I waste a lot of time looking to see the latest on injuries but have trouble finding any info, especially on the lower division teams.

Good point about about the strength of opponents for the two teams. My point was that I'm more comfortable being on the Air Force side when it comes to the passing game. Both teams can be had by good passing attacks, but even though Laws can throw, Air Force is the more likely team to have success in the passing game v Army's defense than vice versa.

That particular one came from a story titled:

Starting quarterbacks for Air Force, Army are practicing after leaving last games with injuries​

from the Colorado Springs Capital Gazette

I often go to local news paper sites for updates. Most limit your free article count, the Cap Gazette here is one of the worst. I think they only give you one so make it count!

I also try and have a list of twitter people who update on their sports teams. Then rotowire, a fantasy information site, is very helpful. USA today has an injury report too.

You are right. When Laws is in the game for Army it will tip Air Force of as it is more of a passing situation, where as, with Daniels, it could be a pass at any time. I do think the rather prolific passing teams Army has faced (even some of the MAC opponents), compared to the rather pedestrian passing opponents AF has played skews the numbers. I'd expect both defenses to be adequately prepared and able to matchup here. But again, you correctly identify the better passing team and technically Army is worse at defending that.

 

[carolinablue]

Just wanted to say it is borderline eerie how similar our percentages are, as after last night I am at .5767%, so almost exactly the same, that is crazy when you consider how many games we both have been on so far this season. No play for me on the AFA game as I just can never seem to figure those games out, but will be rooting for the Falcons to come through for ya. Best of luck this weekend!

 

[2daBank]

Just wanted to say it is borderline eerie how similar our percentages are, as after last night I am at .5767%, so almost exactly the same, that is crazy when you consider how many games we both have been on so far this season. No play for me on the AFA game as I just can never seem to figure those games out, but will be rooting for the Falcons to come through for ya. Best of luck this weekend!

to me those games are pretty easy to figure out, just bet the under and wait to collect! obviously it could lose but i cash a ton of service academy unders, just a autoplay for me.

 

[Br@ssknux]

2. Wake Forest +2.5 @North Carolina: I realize that this is a very popular dog, but I can't pass up the chance to take a team that constantly finds ways to win against a team that has spent the entire season underachieving. First of all, I don't see how North Carolina is going to stop the Wake offense. Wake is ranked 9th in overall yards per play on offense and is 5th in yards per pass attempt and 4th on 3rd down while the UNC defense is 79th in yards per play against, 77th in yards per pass attempt against and 80th on 3rd down. They aren't on a roll of any sort either, as they gave up 523 yards last week to a Notre Dame offense who has struggled all year to move the ball. It's true that on paper the Heels appear to have the edge on Wake's defense, but that was the case in their games against Florida State(especially) and Georgia Tech and they failed to cover those games by an average of 30 points. Also, we have an undefeated team getting points against a .500 team. Although we all know unranked favorites against ranked dogs are dangerous, undefeated teams being dogs this late in the season (last I checked) have a great ATS record. (I should look it up). I just see this as a resourceful team against a basket case, so I'm taking the points.

 

[carolinablue]

to me those games are pretty easy to figure out, just bet the under and wait to collect! obviously it could lose but i cash a ton of service academy unders, just a autoplay for me.

153 plays this year, zero unders…won’t even pretend like I know what I’m talkin about when it comes to those!

 

[Br@ssknux]

153 plays this year, zero unders…won’t even pretend like I know what I’m talkin about when it comes to those!

Zero totals for me. And as soon as I posted one, you'd all know why.

 

[2daBank]

153 plays this year, zero unders…won’t even pretend like I know what I’m talkin about when it comes to those!

im sick, ive always loved playing unders!! lol

 

[2daBank]

i hate to say it cause i hate when we against each other but i been leaning army all week,, forget why at moment, lol., think it was army defensive line metrics stack up pretty favorably. Think this game generally really close/comes down to few plays so taking the plus money appealed to me, last 3 games been within 4 points and dog has covered 4 in a row.. i never do ncaa teasers but i was kinda thinking a army+8.5/u44.5 teaser might be a really good way to attack it, then we both could win!!

 

[Br@ssknux]

3. Ohio State -14(-118) @ Nebraska: I've made a living on Nebraska this year, mostly fading them but backing them when dogged, and this week we find both the Huskers and Ohio State in roles that demand an Ohio State play in my opinion. If you've been interested in playing Nebraska, the only time you were treated to any value was when they were getting a ton of points at Oklahoma...the rest of the year you've mostly had to lay points with them despite their propensity to find as many ways as possible to lose. I think they have the ability to hang with Ohio State, but the recent history of both teams suggests they won't. In their last 10 games as a home dog, Nebraska is 2-8 against the spread. Meanwhile, under Ryan Day, OSU has been money on the road, going 8-1-1 (they were favored in all 10). The only one they haven't covered was at Rutgers in 2019 when they were favored by 51(!!!), so I think we can give them a pass on that one. I'm not strictly a trend player, but these are too severe to ignore. I'm gonna keep backing OSU until they lose in this role, and I'm especially gonna do it when they match up with a team this bad as a home dog. I almost expect Nebraska to play well enough to cover, only to see OSU sneak out a front door cover. That end result is just what happens with these two teams in these roles.

 

[Br@ssknux]

4. @ Memphis +5 v SMU: Before I get into this one, I recommend holding off as long as possible because I don't think the line will get any worse for Memphis. QB Seth Henigan looks like he'll be a game time decision, but this line reflects the assumption that he and not backup Peter Patton. If Patton goes, I would assume that line will rise to perhaps 7 or more, and in that case I'd still like Memphis. It's a good matchup for the Tigers for a few reasons. Defensively, Memphis is ranked 51st in total yards per play against and 44th in yards per pass attempt against. Obviously, SMU has a potent pass attack, but Memphis represents one of the best defenses they've played. SMU's previous foes include USF (91st), North Texas (114th), Tulane (115th), Navy (112th) and TCU (128th), all horrific pass defenses, so they'll be experiencing a step up in class defensively. SMU is just as bad as all of them, as they are ranked 115th in yards per attempt, and if you take a look at that list of opponents again, you won't see any passing juggernauts in that group with the exception of TCU In addition, Memphis is the 21st ranked passing attack and they're coming off a bye, so even if they don't have Henigan, Memphis's staff will have had plenty of time to fashion a game plan against an extremely forgiving pass defense, Keep in mind that SMU just lost their first game of the year, which oftentimes leads to a second loss, and that Memphis is 8-0(!!!) in their last 8 as a home dog while SMU is 3-11 as a road favorite under Sonny Dykes. Lots of factors pointing to Memphis here. Keep an eye on that line though.

 

[Br@ssknux]

5. Wisconsin -13 @Rutgers: Last week Rutgers did what it does regularly under Greg Schaino: They played a Big Ten conference road game and covered. That makes them 6-1 in that role, but unfortunately, the opposite is true in conference home games, as the Scarlet Knights are 1-6 in that role. Although I would agree that 13 is a healthy dose of points, it's typically not enough for the Knights, and unless they can hold the Badgers to 20 or so points or less(which they have never done in any Big Ten Conference home game under Schiano) I don't see how they cover this one. The Knights come into this one ranked 124th in yards per play on offense, 104th in yards per carry and 123rd in yards per pass attempt. We all know what that kind of production will result in against this Badgers defense that ranks in the top 10 in every conceivable defensive category. On the flipside, Wisconsin is obviously not great on offense, but I think they'll have the advantage on that side of the ball as well. Rutgers ranks 117th against the pass, allowing 9.0 yards per attempt. Wisconsin QB Graham Mertz isn't good, but it's not like he'll be trying to crack a pass D like Iowa or Penn State or Notre Dame this week. Wisconsin also has really gotten their run game going with the 2 headed attack of Chez Mellusi and Braelon Allen. As much as Rutgers struggles at home in conference, the Badgers thrive on the road, especially in the favorite's role(12-4 since 2017).

 

[Br@ssknux]

6. Michigan State -3 @ Purdue: Another road favorite, and another pair of teams in roles where they are mismatched. I've seen a bunch of references this week to Purdue's "opportunistic" tendencies, and if you're referring to last week against Nebraska and two weeks ago against Iowa where they forced all kinds of turnovers, you'd be right. However, they aren't on the road this week, and that's where all their good fortune usually occurs. When they've been at home this year in conference, the offense, which looks pretty competent on the road, gets extremely pedestrian. The past 3 games, they've had the same result, scoring 13 points against Wisconsin, Illinois and Minnesota en route to 3 consecutive ATS losses and what should have been 3 straight ourtight losses had Bret Bielema decided not to punt late in the 4th quarter on 4th and 1 at the Purdue 38 up 9-6. This week, Michigan State rolls into town, fresh off a huge win over rival Michigan in a game they didn't even play all that well in. It's not an ideal spot, but the Spartans are in their element on the road, having covered all 4. I'd be tempted to consider Purdue if I could get a few more points or if they were in their own element as a road dog, where they have done most of their upset damage. I just think it's a lot to ask of them to win this game outright, which is what they'll probably need to do to cover this line.

 

[2daBank]

4. @memphis +5 v SMU: Before I get into this one, I recommend holding off as long as possible because I don't think the line will get any worse for Memphis. QB Seth Henigan looks like he'll be a game time decision, but this line reflects the assumption that he and not backup Peter Patton. If Patton goes, I would assume that line will rise to perhaps 7 or more, and in that case I'd still like Memphis. It's a good matchup for the Tigers for a few reasons. Defensively, Memphis is ranked 51st in total yards per play against and 44th in yards per pass attempt against. Obviously, SMU has a potent pass attack, but Memphis represents one of the best defenses they've played. SMU's previous foes include USF (91st), North Texas (114th), Tulane (115th), Navy (112th) and TCU (128th), all horrific pass defenses, so they'll be experiencing a step up in class defensively. SMU is just as bad as all of them, as they are ranked 115th in yards per attempt, and if you take a look at that list of opponents again, you won't see any passing juggernauts in that group with the exception of TCU In addition, Memphis is the 21st ranked passing attack and they're coming off a bye, so even if they don't have Henigan, Memphis's staff will have had plenty of time to fashion a game plan against an extremely forgiving pass defense, Keep in mind that SMU just lost their first game of the year, which oftentimes leads to a second loss, and that Memphis is 8-0(!!!) in their last 8 as a home dog while SMU is 3-11 as a road favorite under Sonny Dykes. Lots of factors pointing to Memphis here. Keep an eye on that line though.

i been looking at this one all week, i really would like to see Henigan in tho,. the parrish kid seems to be much more runner than passer at this time and smu defends the run way better than the pass. i do expect he will show better after getting a game under his belt and the bye week to practice more with 1st team. my concern is other than being more a runner, damn near all his completions in the ucf game were at or behind the los, he didnt have any success throwing down the field. . memphis always tough at home so i really want to play them.

 

[Br@ssknux]

7. Oklahoma State -3.5 @West Virginia: Watch as I continue to make a liar out of myself. "I'm a dog player!!" "I hate playing road favorites!!". Yeah, whatever. Usually I don't see a lot of value in road favorites, but this week is an exception. In this case, I think we see some value in the Pokes here because West Virginia was able to knock off Iowa State as a home dog last weekend. Over the years, Oklahoma State has been a great team to back, and this year is no exception as the Cowboys have covered 6 in a row. Defense has been their calling card as they have a legitimately outstanding defense, ranked 11th in yards per play and 7th against the run, which is the area that West Virginia prefers to attack. The Mountaineers offense is nothing special, so my expectation is that they will struggle to move the ball on this Cowboy defense. West Virginia's defense has not been good either, especially against the pass, and the Cowboys are more than competent in that area, especially now that top receiver Tay Martin is back for Spencer Sanders and Co. WV is just a mediocre team, I don't see them being able to rise up and beat 2 solid opponents outright in consecutive weeks. I like the Cowboys here.

 

[Br@ssknux]

i been looking at this one all week, i really would like to see Henigan in tho,. the parrish kid seems to be much more runner than passer at this time and smu defends the run way better than the pass. i do expect he will show better after getting a game under his belt and the bye week to practice more with 1st team. my concern is other than being more a runner, damn near all his completions in the ucf game were at or behind the los, he didnt have any success throwing down the field. . memphis always tough at home so i really want to play them.

Do it Bank!

 

[2daBank]

Do it Bank!

most likely will but as you suggested ill wait and see what happens with the line, even if Henigan gets announced as playing i cant imagine it drops very much and could def see it going up closer to a td if he is out.

 

[2daBank]

7. Oklahoma State -3.5 @West Virginia: Watch as I continue to make a liar out of myself. "I'm a dog player!!" "I hate playing road favorites!!". Yeah, whatever. Usually I don't see a lot of value in road favorites, but this week is an exception. In this case, I think we see some value in the Pokes here because West Virginia was able to knock off Iowa State as a home dog last weekend. Over the years, Oklahoma State has been a great team to back, and this year is no exception as the Cowboys have covered 6 in a row. Defense has been their calling card as they have a legitimately outstanding defense, ranked 11th in yards per play and 7th against the run, which is the area that West Virginia prefers to attack. The Mountaineers offense is nothing special, so my expectation is that they will struggle to move the ball on this Cowboy defense. West Virginia's defense has not been good either, especially against the pass, and the Cowboys are more than competent in that area, especially now that top receiver Tay Martin is back for Spencer Sanders and Co. WV is just a mediocre team, I don't see them being able to rise up and beat 2 solid opponents outright in consecutive weeks. I like the Cowboys here.

maybe im crazy but for the most part even with fans back home field hasnt seemed all that daunting this year, i know ive played a ton of road teams and havnt regretted it, much, lol.. There have def been games it mattered but for most part i think there been some value on road teams.

 

[Br@ssknux]

8. @Kentucky +1.5 v Tennessee: This line opened(I believe) at -5 in favor of Kentucky, and now sits at Kentucky +1 Tennessee has the edge in the passing game, Kentucky will have the better of the running games on both sides of the ball. This play really comes down to whether Tennessee under Heupel has the ability to go on the road and knock off a solid team like Kentucky. I don't think they do, and that's mostly because Kentucky doesn't have any obvious flaws, which isn't true for Tennessee. There will also be a huge mismatch on 3rd down. Kentucky's running game has made it easy for them to convert 3rd downs, (17th in the country) while Tennessee has struggled to get off the field all year. Tennessee has also had trouble protecting their QB's ranking 125th in that area. Ultimately I think Kentucky will be able to run the ball on the Vols, much like they have vs most of their non-Georgia opponents. I'm guessing Kentucky is also aware and quite tired of the Tennessee owns Kentucky narrative. That's actually true, but the Wildcats blew out the Vols last year, and most of that team returned intact. The Wildcats probably also are acutely aware that the betting markets moved them from a favorite to a dog. I think Kentucky gets back on the winning track back in their comfort zone at home. I think they can absolutely win this game.

 

[Br@ssknux]

More tomorrow AM!

 

[s--k]

I've found myself conflicted on that Kentucky - Tennessee games. I like the season on the line bounce back opportunity at home vs UK. There must be a high level of motivation to end this losing streak after such a good start to the season. But on the other hand, I find myself believing that Tennessee will have special focus on this game due to last season's result. Vols blown out at home 7-34 (but yards just 287-294, UK won by 27 and outgained them by 7 yards thanks to being +3 turnovers. So I should just assume both teams are really going to bring it. And then, I have a hard time with it...UK better D overall, but I like the Vols O more...I still don't know.

 

[2daBank]

I've found myself conflicted on that Kentucky - Tennessee games. I like the season on the line bounce back opportunity at home vs UK. There must be a high level of motivation to end this losing streak after such a good start to the season. But on the other hand, I find myself believing that Tennessee will have special focus on this game due to last season's result. Vols blown out at home 7-34 (but yards just 287-294, UK won by 27 and outgained them by 7 yards thanks to being +3 turnovers. So I should just assume both teams are really going to bring it. And then, I have a hard time with it...UK better D overall, but I like the Vols O more...I still don't know.

same here, i been leaning vols, most the guys i respect on uk., starting to think i like over 57 the best!!

 

[MBarnett]

GL - with you on almost all of them.

Exception is UNC. Mack Brown teams usually bounce back really well after a loss. He is 3-0 this year after a loss and won 80%+ of his games at Texas under the same

 

[mcculran]

GL - with you on almost all of them.

Exception is UNC. Mack Brown teams usually bounce back really well after a loss. He is 3-0 this year after a loss and won 80%+ of his games at Texas under the same

UNC played Georgia St, Duke, and Miami after those losses. This is the problem with trends…unc would have beat all three of those teams after a win, loss, or tie. I just feel like you always have to peel back another layer of the onion with trends. They may win today, but highly doubt it had anything to do with them losing last week.

 

[Br@ssknux]

9. Boise +5(-115) @Fresno State: When you match up these two teams on paper, Fresno looks like the side, but I'm here to tell you that this was the case last week and Boise was not overmatched in the least against Colorado State. Offensively the Broncos have been mediocre all year, but they racked up 430 yards on the road last week against one of the best if not the best defense in the conference, so Bachmeier and company are rounding into shape. Fresno is certainly a solid offense and Boise's defense is not as good as they have been in the past, but Fresno hasn't been lighting up the stat sheet this year, as they are ranked 72nd running the ball and 62nd in yards per pass attempt. The clincher for me is how good Boise has been in this role. It's not often, but Boise simply does not get blown out as a road dog, and they usually win outright. They've been in the road dog role twice this year, covering both times while handling a previously unbeaten BYU team outright. Since 2017 they've been in the role 5 times and they are a perfect 5-0 in it. They are also 7-2 as a dog anywhere and 16-8 on the road. There's just a lot of data suggesting Boise will be in this game to the wire, so I'm gonna take the rare opportunity to grab the points with the Broncos.

 

[MBarnett]

UNC played Georgia St, Duke, and Miami after those losses. This is the problem with trends…unc would have beat all three of those teams after a win, loss, or tie. I just feel like you always have to peel back another layer of the onion with trends. They may win today, but highly doubt it had anything to do with them losing last week.

I am a Texas fan, I don't have the exact stats but we rarely lost back to back games under Brown. His mantra was something like you can't let a loss beat you twice. His record was obscene in those games at Texas. Should have explained in more detail but your point is well made for this season.

 

[Br@ssknux]

10. @Alabama -28.5 v LSU: I really hate laying this many points and I generally try to lay off all Alabama games because they seem to burn me regardless of whatever I do. In addition, I shy away from fading Orgeron because he's got a great record as a dog and in conference games overall, but this is a special scenario. LSU is so beat up that they seem to be running out of players. Their top WR Boutte has been out for awhile and although they had kind of a dead cat bounce offensively against Florida, they are really feeling the effects of that loss now. You also have to assume that any residual emotion to play for Coach O has faded, and I can't imagine that staff has their heads in the game since they'll all be needing jobs soon. In order to hang in this game, they need 100% health and 100% attention to detail and I can't imagine that's a possibility here. There was a similar scenario last year in Baton Rouge when the COVID postponed game was rescheduled late and Bama could have scored as many points as they wanted in that game. It seems like an even worse scenario this year. The world will probably be on Bama 1H and game, and I'll be with them. This line should be in the mid 30's in my opinion.

 

[2daBank]

I am a Texas fan, I don't have the exact stats but we rarely lost back to back games under Brown. His mantra was something like you can't let a loss beat you twice. His record was obscene in those games at Texas. Should have explained in more detail but your point is well made for this season.

freaking damn near everyone i know on wake, the guys i respect and my lame friends who cant pick their noses! that scary. i left it alone! lol.. i was hoping to play some props in that game but pussy ass books didnt post any numbers, wonder why?

 

[Br@ssknux]

By the way, I just read the discussion about this game over in GPS's thread, and based on what Twinkie reported there....let's just say I'm even more confident in this one^^^^^^^

 

[Br@ssknux]

11. @Louisville +3.5 v Clemson: As we all know, Clemson is 1-7 ATS this year and but for an act of God last week, they would be 0-8. The reason for this ATS performance is obvious to all of us :Clemson's offense sucks, and it's sucked out loud all year. The defense remains pretty good, but it's been beset by injuries as well and is a far cry from recent Clemson vintage. The lines took awhile to adjust, and they have somewhat, but they still don't reflect the actual reality for the Tigers this year. When you look at Louisville's defensive performance this year, it might give you the impression that this might be the defense that Clemson has been waiting for. On closer inspection however, it probably isn't. Louisville opponents include a bunch of offenses significantly better than Clemson, and some (Wake, Virginia, Ole Miss) that are among the elite offenses in the country. When Louisville has played more mediocre offenses, and the best example of this would be the last 2 weeks (BC and NC State), they have performed well, giving up only 361 and 266 yards in those two weeks. Last week Louisville had an unlucky game against NC State, outgaining them significantly and piling up 435 yards on an NC State defense that ranks higher than Clemson's in most categories. If this was a blind test matchup assuming comparable schedules, the profiles of the two teams would lead you to assume that Louisville would be about a 4 point favorite(at least I would assume that). That indicates pretty good value to me, so I'll put my cash behind Malik Cunningham. That's a welcome change for me, because I've been against Louisville quite a bit this year, and I'm tired of watching defenses try to chase that guy around.

 

[Br@ssknux]

12. @Washington +7 v Oregon: I was glad to see Oregon get into the top 4 of the CFP standings, although what the standings look like now don't really mean anything. They deserve to be there by virtue of their win over Ohio State, and I was actually a little worried they might be slotted behind the Buckeyes, so the fact that they weren't was good to see. However, Oregon has had a penchant of playing to the level of their competition. Arizona and Colorado, for example, have both had significantly better than their average offensive outputs against the Ducks. Now the Ducks face a big rival, the Washington Huskies in Seattle with a forecast for a steady rain all night. That would lend itself to more of a low scoring game, and Washington's defense has been good enough all year, especially against the pass, to keep themselves in the game. Washington's Achilles heel is run defense, so it's likely the Ducks will focus there, but they'll have to do more than that, and Washington's 3rd ranked defense is no joke. If Washington can get some semblance of an offense going against a defense that appears to be pretty lenient to just about everyone, I like their chances to hang close in this one. 7 is a lot for a rivalry game.

 

[Br@ssknux]

13. @UTEP +11.5 v UTSA: I really don't know when people are going to realize that it's not 2018, or 2019, or 2011, or 2015, or basically any year other than this one. UTEP is 6-2, and they were completely unlucky to lose last week at FAU. They've played a weak schedule, but they've shut down just about everyone, ranking 6th in total defense, 8th against the run, 15th against the pass and 3rd in 3rd down conversions against. Offensively, they should have a major edge in the passing game, as they sport the 11th ranked pass offense in yards per attempt while UTSA is 91st in the same category on defense. UTEP has had no trouble covering spreads all year, and although I love UTSA this year, the value is definitely on the home dog here.

 

[Br@ssknux]

What an absolute choke job by Wake Forest. Outscored 17-0 in the 4th quarter to blow the cover by 1/2 a point against a dead team with nothing to play for. Went out with a whimper on the last drive when probably 90 teams would have scored with 3 timeouts against that defense.

I should have known better than to bet on a North Carolina game, so my fault ultimately, but come on.

 

[MBarnett]

freaking damn near everyone i know on wake, the guys i respect and my lame friends who cant pick their noses! that scary. i left it alone! lol.. i was hoping to play some props in that game but pussy ass books didnt post any numbers, wonder why?

I have been throwing money away on Texas this year but got lucky on this theory.

 

[2daBank]

What an absolute choke job by Wake Forest. Outscored 17-0 in the 4th quarter to blow the cover by 1/2 a point against a dead team with nothing to play for. Went out with a whimper on the last drive when probably 90 teams would have scored with 3 timeouts against that defense.

I should have known better than to bet on a North Carolina game, so my fault ultimately, but come on.

these all offense, no defense teams are a pain. They can come back on anyone if they get down but holding a lead not easy for them. i thought for sure when i saw they got up a few scores ya'll be good cause didnt think heels be able to stop them a few times in a row. did hartman throw a pick 6 in 4th?

 

[MBarnett]

What an absolute choke job by Wake Forest. Outscored 17-0 in the 4th quarter to blow the cover by 1/2 a point against a dead team with nothing to play for. Went out with a whimper on the last drive when probably 90 teams would have scored with 3 timeouts against that defense.

I should have known better than to bet on a North Carolina game, so my fault ultimately, but come on.

You had the right side. That was a tough beat.

 

[mcculran]

What an absolute choke job by Wake Forest. Outscored 17-0 in the 4th quarter to blow the cover by 1/2 a point against a dead team with nothing to play for. Went out with a whimper on the last drive when probably 90 teams would have scored with 3 timeouts against that defense.

I should have known better than to bet on a North Carolina game, so my fault ultimately, but come on.

Man, i feel you. Cost me a lot of money, with straight bet, ML play, and would have closed out 2 separate 4-team round robins…absolute killer

 

[Br@ssknux]

I could complain about today, and go into specifics about how absolutely excruciating it was, but everyone has been there and doesn't need to hear about it. It was a bad day. That's it.

Just as a heads up, I am going to be completely out of commission most of next week, and will be traveling, handling things all day Thursday and Friday, so anything write up will have to be done by Wednesday night. Chances are pretty good that you won't see much from me next week, but I'm going to try to get some capping done early next week.

 

[Big daddy naught]

I could complain about today, and go into specifics about how absolutely excruciating it was, but everyone has been there and doesn't need to hear about it. It was a bad day. That's it.

Just as a heads up, I am going to be completely out of commission most of next week, and will be traveling, handling things all day Thursday and Friday, so anything write up will have to be done by Wednesday night. Chances are pretty good that you won't see much from me next week, but I'm going to try to get some capping done early next week.

It’s happens to all of us bro. Some days just go like that. Been there done that. Nothing you can do when your research and analysis are spot on and teams decide to shit themselves late.