Br@ssknux
Pretty much a regular
Well, last week the day started out pretty rosy as I cashed my first 6 bets on the list, bu then the wheels fell off and I ended up as good as a coin flip, 6-6. The night games were especially bad. During a 45 minute period between about 7:30-8:15 central, North Carolina, Teas Tech, and Missouri got outscored collectively somewhere in the neighborhood of 103-7. It was rapid fire TDs...they were coming in so fast that all 3 of those games were effectively over before anyone even sniffed the 4th quarters. Ultimately, like any week there were some well handicapped games and some absolute abominations. We'll see if I can avoid the latter this week.
1. @Boise St +3.5 v BYU: I want to make it abundantly clear that I am a big admirer of this BYU team. They have been dominant for the most part all year, and Zach Wilson is a stud at QB, but now that this line has moved all the way to 3.5, this is an must play for me. It's been harped on ad nauseum this week, but Boise has been a dog only once in the last 10 years on the blue turf and they won that game a couple years ago when Fresno was good under Tedford. Due to COVID, BYU had to modify their schedule and it's resulted in a collection of patsies that have led to some formidable stats, but 2 games in, Boise has been similarly dominant against Utah State and Air Force. Regardless of who plays QB for Boise, BYU is going to see a major step up in class in passing games, and I think Boise will move the ball on them through the air. With the exception of Houston(who torched the Cougs for almost 10 yards per attempt) BYU hasn't seen a competent passing attack all year, so they'll have their work cut out for them. There's no doubt that I'm never going to be enthusiastically sprinting to the window to fade BYU this year, but when a very good Boise team with a high octane pass game is getting more than a FG at home, it's what the kids call an auto play.
2. Michigan State +7 (-120) @ Iowa: This line has meandered under 7, but you can reasonably buy it to 7 "globally". I realize this looks like a bit of a square play, but that's what I thought last week too when I laid off playing heavy on the Spartans and that ridiculous 20+ they were getting last week. I wouldn't be surprised if Iowa gets off to a good start again this week like they did against Northwestern last week, but I think the game will prove too long for the Hawkeyes once again to be able to cover a spread like this. It seems as though in both of their games this year, Iowa got out to a lead and then tried to hold on for dear life. Lat week, it became apparent that Ferentz and company had absolutely no interest in any further scoring while they were nursing their lead against Northwestern, and I was fine with that as I was holding a Wildcat ticket. Iowa QB Spencer Petras does not appear ready to lead the Hawkeyes to any meaningful offensive performances, and Michigan State's defense through two games has shown themselves to be stout against the run and the pass. Iowa's defense has been very good as well, but at least MSU's skill guys have been explosive enough to help Rocky Lombardi somehow show some flashes of competence in the passing game. 7 is too much here.
3. Michigan -3 @Indiana: This is just a terrible spot for Indiana in my opinion. Despite being 2-0 and a bit of a darling of the college football scene so far this year, they've been fortunate to find themselves in that position because their offense has been pretty anemic. They rank 89th in yards per play, 97th in rushing yards per attempt and 98th on third down. Now Michigan comes in fresh off the embarrassment of an outright loss as a 21 point favorite to their little brother who was supposed to be terrible this year. Indiana hasn't beaten Michigan in 33 years, and I could only find one time that they've pulled that feat off until I stopped looking once I got past 1976. That 1987 victory also represents the only time they would have covered a 3 point spread in that time period. I have a hard time believing that Indiana will be 3-0 and Michigan will be 1-2 after this week, and only spotting the Hoosiers 3 points when they can't move the ball with any kind of regularity represents a heck of a hill to climb.
4. West Virginia +7(-125) @ Texas: I'm guessing that it's just a matter of time until Texas's point output starts matching the actual production their generating on the field. They had a nice win in Stillwater against Oklahoma State last week, but they were the recipient of a net 4 turnovers, which allowed them to rack up 41 points despite not cracking 300 total yards in the game. Now they face a West Virginia defense that ranks 4th in the country in yards per play, and 7th against the pass. Although Texas's defense is much improved as well, it's not so improved that they'll be able to cover a TD spread without putting up some points. Throw in the fact that Texas typically underperforms in the favorite role, and I'll take those points.
1. @Boise St +3.5 v BYU: I want to make it abundantly clear that I am a big admirer of this BYU team. They have been dominant for the most part all year, and Zach Wilson is a stud at QB, but now that this line has moved all the way to 3.5, this is an must play for me. It's been harped on ad nauseum this week, but Boise has been a dog only once in the last 10 years on the blue turf and they won that game a couple years ago when Fresno was good under Tedford. Due to COVID, BYU had to modify their schedule and it's resulted in a collection of patsies that have led to some formidable stats, but 2 games in, Boise has been similarly dominant against Utah State and Air Force. Regardless of who plays QB for Boise, BYU is going to see a major step up in class in passing games, and I think Boise will move the ball on them through the air. With the exception of Houston(who torched the Cougs for almost 10 yards per attempt) BYU hasn't seen a competent passing attack all year, so they'll have their work cut out for them. There's no doubt that I'm never going to be enthusiastically sprinting to the window to fade BYU this year, but when a very good Boise team with a high octane pass game is getting more than a FG at home, it's what the kids call an auto play.
2. Michigan State +7 (-120) @ Iowa: This line has meandered under 7, but you can reasonably buy it to 7 "globally". I realize this looks like a bit of a square play, but that's what I thought last week too when I laid off playing heavy on the Spartans and that ridiculous 20+ they were getting last week. I wouldn't be surprised if Iowa gets off to a good start again this week like they did against Northwestern last week, but I think the game will prove too long for the Hawkeyes once again to be able to cover a spread like this. It seems as though in both of their games this year, Iowa got out to a lead and then tried to hold on for dear life. Lat week, it became apparent that Ferentz and company had absolutely no interest in any further scoring while they were nursing their lead against Northwestern, and I was fine with that as I was holding a Wildcat ticket. Iowa QB Spencer Petras does not appear ready to lead the Hawkeyes to any meaningful offensive performances, and Michigan State's defense through two games has shown themselves to be stout against the run and the pass. Iowa's defense has been very good as well, but at least MSU's skill guys have been explosive enough to help Rocky Lombardi somehow show some flashes of competence in the passing game. 7 is too much here.
3. Michigan -3 @Indiana: This is just a terrible spot for Indiana in my opinion. Despite being 2-0 and a bit of a darling of the college football scene so far this year, they've been fortunate to find themselves in that position because their offense has been pretty anemic. They rank 89th in yards per play, 97th in rushing yards per attempt and 98th on third down. Now Michigan comes in fresh off the embarrassment of an outright loss as a 21 point favorite to their little brother who was supposed to be terrible this year. Indiana hasn't beaten Michigan in 33 years, and I could only find one time that they've pulled that feat off until I stopped looking once I got past 1976. That 1987 victory also represents the only time they would have covered a 3 point spread in that time period. I have a hard time believing that Indiana will be 3-0 and Michigan will be 1-2 after this week, and only spotting the Hoosiers 3 points when they can't move the ball with any kind of regularity represents a heck of a hill to climb.
4. West Virginia +7(-125) @ Texas: I'm guessing that it's just a matter of time until Texas's point output starts matching the actual production their generating on the field. They had a nice win in Stillwater against Oklahoma State last week, but they were the recipient of a net 4 turnovers, which allowed them to rack up 41 points despite not cracking 300 total yards in the game. Now they face a West Virginia defense that ranks 4th in the country in yards per play, and 7th against the pass. Although Texas's defense is much improved as well, it's not so improved that they'll be able to cover a TD spread without putting up some points. Throw in the fact that Texas typically underperforms in the favorite role, and I'll take those points.
