Week 10 What Have We Learned

VirginiaCavs

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The Jaguar defense has improved — special teams allowed Indy to score seven of its 23 points today. This coming off a nice showing against Buffalo (6 points allowed). Meyer switching from man to man to zone coverage is paying off by allowing the players to play to their strengths:
 
They certainly have been impressive lately. Feeling good about my NE o9 wins season bet

Kinda figured bill had the defense where he wanted when he shipped Gilmore off for a bag of balls. He been owning young QBs and shitty ones like Faker, dunno why ppl liked browns today? Had to see that coming. Baker sucks.
 
Week 10 thoughts turned into Week 10 lessons

Balt/Mia - Ravens couldn't cover last week at home while the Dolphins got it done against lowly Houston. Last time Lamar played in Miami he put up 5 TDs in a romp. Can't expect the same tonight. Sounds like Brisset may start which hurts the total. No real good feel for this one, probably just tease Baltimore with some Sunday plays. Oof. We didn't expect 5 TDs but we sure as hell expected more than 1. No explanation for this one other than the Ravens inability to figure out a way to attack zero coverage. Will other teams copy this? They should, but next up is the Bears. You think Nagy is smart enough to copy that formula? I don't. Besides with extra time to prepare Harbaugh may have the light bulb go on and come up with something as a counter. Bottom line - don't read too much into this game.

Atl/Dal - 9.5 seems too much to lay on a Cowboys team that hasn't won by more than 6 in 3 weeks against a Falcons team that has played 6 straight one score games. I think the Boys win but this would be one of the teaser partners. Over was a comfortable hit in this one last year, so no bet there either. Might have to start believing in these Boys a little more with my wallet. The key factor missed was the familiarity the Cowboys DC has with the Falcons talent. Is this actionable in the future? Actually, YES. Next week guess who might be starting for the Panthers? And guess who they play? You think Riverboat Ron knows a thing or two about the Cam and the rest of the Panthers? Hmmm.

NO/Tenn - Titans won with defense last week as the offense without Henry was held well in check. NO is capable and I think they catch the Tits a little flat this week after 4 straight big games. I like NO +3 unless Kamara is out. Saints were the play even without Kamara and it took a special teams mistake to beat them. Titans are winning with smoke, mirrors, guts and duct tape right now. I don't have the stones to bet on them at this point, or to fade them.

Jax/Indy - Time to fade the Jags off that effort against the Bills. After they beat Miami a few weeks ago they came back flat against Seattle. I can see that happening again. Indy's O-line should be able to handle the Jags. Indy -10.5. Indy had it covered by halftime(!) then took most of the second half off. No regrets. Wentz is still up and down.

Cle/NE - These two teams are almost mirror images.....banged up run games, game manager QBs, better than average defenses. The lack of running backs may force both teams to throw it quite a bit, which leans this one over 45. Browns actually led this on 7-0. Patriots were nearly perfect on offense, with 6 TDs and a FG in 8 possessions. And they held the Browns to about 150 yards after that first drive. Don't look now but the Patriots are passing the eye test.

Buff/NYJ - Bills off a terrible performance, Jets off getting blown out by Indy. Jets at home have been a spicy meatball so I like the over 48 more than the side. 31-21 or 38-17 looks reasonable. How about 45-17? Like Dallas I think last week was just one of those days for the Bills. They're fine. Big quartet of games coming up.

Det/Pitt - said it last week, do not trust Tomlin laying a big number coming off a win. We all saw what happened Monday night, Steelers were seriously outgained but had the edge in a certain zoological area that helped them win. This is the biggest potential mismatch of the week for officiating. Lions come off a dreadful effort, should be better this week. Teaser play only. Lions were averaging 93 yards per game rushing, they put up 229 vs. Pitt. Last week the Bears were averaging 159 per game passing, they put up 278 vs Pitt. Meanwhile the Steelers offense is averaging under 20 points per game, by far the lowest of any team with 5 wins and actually lower than any team with four wins. TJ Watt left the game with knee and hip issues. He is listed as week to week before tests today. The schedule gets tougher starting now. The facade appears ready to break.

Tam/Wash - both teams off bye weeks trying to snap a losing streak. Tampa on the road has been winning close games. Washington should empty their bag of tricks in this one. Give me Washington + 9.5. Brady put them in a hole early and the two times it looked like they were gathering momentum the Team blunted it with a huge scoring drive. Tough win for the Team though as it looks like Chase Young is done for the year. Bucs are continuing to struggle on the road. They have a "get right" game next week against the Giants. AB returning would be a huge benefit.

Car/Ari - Saw where the Panthers are kicking the tires on their old buddy Cam, wow. Both teams are pretty banged up, Cards especially. Should trust them but they've actually played much better on the road. Another teaser play only. Opposite of the Bucs, the Cards are disappointing at home, go figure. Lack of Murray and Hopkins finally caught up to them. Like most teams they can rally for one week but an extended period with their key guys will weigh them down. On the other hand, should've seen the loss of Darnold as more of a positive I guess. Panthers are wildly inconsistent.

Min/LAC - Vikings have been able to tighten the ship after high scoring losses this year. I think both teams can be run on, which could limit the number of plays, although both teams are pretty high on the pace of play charts. A close, fairly high scoring game is on brand for both teams, and that's exactly what the oddsmakers show. Pass. Pretty good game, as tight as expected. Teams have been choking off Mike Williams recently and as a result the Herbert is struggling a bit and they've gone 1-3. At the start of the year the Chargers said the offense would be running through his position on the field (X?, I forget which spot). Chargers run D is still bad, Vikes closed it out with a 4th and 2 conversion on the ground. Minnesota is up and down. They have five division games left and a good five game stretch coming up to get some playoff traction.

Phi/Den - Denver goes for the 4-0 sweep of the NFC East, while Philly tries not to go 0-4 against the AFC West. The Theory of Mediocre Teams tells me Philly should bounce back off their loss and Denver is due for a clunker after being almost perfect last week. Philly +3 for me. Easiest call of the week. Eagles have found an identity without their starting RB as a, go figure, run first team. Denver is as up and down as they come.

Sea/GB - Battle of the returning QBs, just in time for CBS. Imagine a national broadcast of Geno Smith vs Jordan Love? Not sure how either does coming off their breaks, so pass for now, although gut says Packers get back on track. I think Russ may have rushed back too soon. His QB rating was half of Geno's WORST game in his four game stint. Who had that wager? LOL. Rodgers was also worse than Geno's worst rating....what would that parlay have paid? Pack might have lost Jones for awhile but Dillon is about as good right now, no drop off there. Pack defense is pretty damn good.

KC/LV - Two teams that did not play well last week, even though KC pulled out the win. Raiders seem to be getting played hard at the windows this week, which makes me nervous even though they're the side to play. Las Vegas +2.5 for now but may pull out of it later. Ended with a dud, leave it to the Raiders to be Mahomes get right game. Dallas at KC next week is going to be a classic. Its a shame we're stuck with Joe Buck on it.
 
By the way, on the Santoso kick in overtime, I'm not a conspiracy theorist (yeah right) but the question should be asked of whether that was actually a K ball in play or if it was one of the waterlogged regular balls. That ball flew like it was a water balloon.
 
Cute QB substitutions suck.

Raiders 1st possession. Just past midfield. 4th and 1. They put Mariota in. False start. Drive killed.

I get that Mariota can run. I also get that Carr is 6'3 and 220 lbs. And can get under center, with 2 backs behind him, and get 1/2 to 1 yard. Mariota's inserted into the game. Cadence is different, etc. Result = no good.

Don't overthink things. QB sneak continues to be the most underutilized play in the sport. Use them, coaches.
 
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Cute QB substitutions suck.

Raiders 1st possession. Just past midfield. 4th and 1. They put Mariota in. False start. Drive killed.

I get that Mariota can run. I also get that Carr is 6'3 and 220 lbs. And can get under center, with 2 backs behind him, and get 1/2 to 1 yard. Mariota's inserted into the game. Cadence is different, etc. Result = no good.

Don't overthink things. QB sneak continues to be the most underutilized play in the sport. Use them, coaches.
I said the same thing. 4th and 1 foot. It wasn't 1 yard. Why is a trick play needed in such a short distance situation? Overcoaching is what it is. This Raiders interim HC has shown he lacks what it takes. KC has it 1st and goal at the 2 minute warning with Raiders having 3 timeouts. He loses 6 seconds off the click not being prepared for the situation off a timeout.
Play calling was abominable
 
Cute QB substitutions suck.

Raiders 1st possession. Just past midfield. 4th and 1. They put Mariota in. False start. Drive killed.

I get that Mariota can run. I also get that Carr is 6'3 and 220 lbs. And can get under center, with 2 backs behind him, and get 1/2 to 1 yard. Mariota's inserted into the game. Cadence is different, etc. Result = no good.

Don't overthink things. QB sneak continues to be the most underutilized play in the sport. Use them, coaches.
Trick plays and actual kick returns

Two things that seem like they get flagged over 50% of the time...and with kicks you get the auto 25 these days, returning it out of the EZ MAYBE you get back to the 25-30, but the inevitable hold or block in the back takes it back inside the 15. Take the freebie when you can.
 
For all the hand wringing about upsets and unpredictability, here we are ten weeks in and these are the division leaders:

Buffalo
Baltimore
Tennessee
Kansas City
Dallas
Green Bay
Tampa Bay
Arizona

Are we really surprised by anyone other than Arizona? And the NFC West favorite, the Rams, could have the exact same record after tonight. The road may have been crooked, but we seem to be heading in the right direction.
 
I said the same thing. 4th and 1 foot. It wasn't 1 yard. Why is a trick play needed in such a short distance situation? Overcoaching is what it is. This Raiders interim HC has shown he lacks what it takes. KC has it 1st and goal at the 2 minute warning with Raiders having 3 timeouts. He loses 6 seconds off the click not being prepared for the situation off a timeout.
Play calling was abominable

Don't get me started on clock mgmt.
 
Now Minkah Fitzpatrick has da Rona, and no word on his vaccination status. TJ Watt apparently avoided major injury but could miss this week vs Chargers.

Aaron Jones probably out for 2 weeks then the Pack have a week 13 bye. Dillon holders hit on their scratchoff, but only for $500, not for $1 million.
 
I will gladly admit to not watching a ton of NFL yesterday. Which was probably better for my blood pressure seeing as how TB lost and Indy basically stopped playing at halftime laying over 10.

That said, a few things did jump out to me.

I’m not entirely sure Sam Darnold ever takes another snap in the NFL as a starter. He may not take another one again unless it’s due to an injury. Sort of amazing, btw, if you remember back to that draft which seems like forever ago, but it was only 2018, but there was that whole debate about who would go first, Darnold or Rosen. Then Baker jumped up and Josh Allen jumped ahead of Rosen. Anyway, Rosen is now like third string in Atlanta which is where about where I imagine Darnold will be next year, riding the pine in Indy or wherever.

Both Dallas and Buffalo did what you want good teams to do after a bad loss. That’s the kind of thing you like to see from a team getting ready to make a run. What would make you feel even better is if they did it again next week.

Speaking of which, the wrong team is favored in the KC/Dallas game. Though I think that opened at a PK so it makes me wonder a bit who’s pushing that line. But the wrong team is favored.

It’s interesting to me that the Chargers have essentially no home field advantage. As someone who lived in LA for a long time and always said that town didn’t want an NFL team, you ‘d think I’d feel vindicated, maybe? Something? I don’t though, it’s just weird. Although the Chargers feel like they haven’t had a home in years so maybe that’s it.

Also, maybe it truly is that the only people who want and can afford to go to games any more in towns like LA are the people who are visiting fans who are just going to that one game rather than die hard season ticket holders. I think the Raiders are going to be slightly different here in Vegas simply because you can get a lot of people driving out—and because the Raiders fan base is so much more of the west coast than just LA or Oak. But at this point I wonder if it will take years for the Chargers to really build up a place that’s difficult for others to play.

On the field, yeah, run against the Chargers. All day.

Also, run against Pittsburgh.

Also, Pittsburgh sucks and the only sub-.500 team left on their schedule is at Minnesota.

But speaking of running, we're starting to get into that part of the season where a running game matters. Looking at you, Kansas City.

I love the Browns, those orange pants are a thing of pure majestical beauty, but they’re not healthy and I can’t bet them against good teams. Well, any more. I teased them yesterday which felt incredibly smart for like five minutes. Then, not so much.

Are the Raiders coming apart? Is it really as simple as they no longer have a deep threat which means you can cover Waller better and now Carr doesn’t know what to do?

Also, the wrong team is favored in the Eagles game this week. Which, naturally, means they’re going to win by 10. Or three. Or maybe four. Whatever, point is, Philly shouldn’t be favored. But I’m assuming that line is with Kamara out. Anyway, I feel like this has to move back by game time, although for some reason, the Birds have been getting a ton of betting love. I don’t know if I see it, but what I do see on the field is a team that’s starting to figure it out. Both coaching and at QB, it’s taken some time, but they’re getting there.

The Eagles season win total was, I believe, 6.5. They still have two vs. the Giants, two vs. Washington without Chase Young, and one at the Jets. Gents, this may be an eight win team when it’s all said and done.

Speaking of Washington, great win yesterday. Was I worried about TB being flat, yes. Did I bet them anyway? Yes. So shame on me, I guess. But from what I saw of this game it looked a lot like that Tennessee win over the Rams where the Rams just kept giving Tenny the ball to start the game and score points. Yes, Tampa eventually woke up, but the problem is, their defense still struggles to get stops. Good news for them, apparently DT Vita Vea’s injury isn’t as bad as feared. But this team still needs to get healthy. As for Washington, I sort of keep waiting for them to quit and they keep … not quitting. And now you have Ron Rivera vs. Cam this week? Even without Chase Young, I’ll pass on that game.

As was mentioned above, Green Bay’s defense is good.

Right now, if you have to pick a team in the NFC, it has to be GB and Dallas on top then Arizona, LAR, and TB, right? At least until Arizona gets healthy again.

In the AFC, to me it just looks like’ Buffalo’s to lose. Though I wouldn’t be surprised to see Baltimore make a statement this week to make people think otherwise and, as was also said above, at some point you have to accept that Tenny is more than just Derek Henry.

Also, New England is going to the playoffs. And I’m not sure there’s a team other than Buffalo or Tenny that has any desire to face them.
 
It’s crazy that in the leauge’s first 17 game season and we may not have a team with 13 wins. I stopped looking but you would have to go back quite a few years to not have a 13 win team in the NFL.
 
Imagine how bad the Jets defense would be if they didn't have a great defensive genius like Saleh running things. Rex Ryan going off on this idiot coach was fantastic.
 
Lawrence and Wilson are definitely facing challenges that Mac will never know about.
If there is any competence in Jax this will be Urban's only season, don't need your star draft pick going through regime changes more than necessary. It was a failed experiment, cut ties to it now.

As for the Jets, Wilson is screwed. It's clear that leadership there doesn't want to pay or give power to a coach that deserves it.
 
Everyone loves Teddy. He’s the ride the bike to the game guy. Always same demeanor, win or lose.

Great guy, he just ain’t winning the big game. Ever.
 
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