Week 10 plays, leans, and my opinion of Cincy/USF

Dmoney416

Dmoney416

Ben Mauk's Counsel
Week 1: 5-5, +2.25u
Week 2: 5-4, +0.8u (also 0-1 on ML plays)
Week 3: 7-3-1, +6.85u (also 0-1 on ML plays)
Week 4: 6-6, -2.575u
Week 5: 6-4, +3.825u (also 0-3 on ML plays for -.75u)
Week 6: 6-4, +4.45u
Week 7: 9-4, +9.7u
Week 8: 5-4, +1.8u
Week 9: 3-5-1, -4.95u
Straight plays: 52-39-2, +23.7u
MLs: 0-5, -1.55u
Total: 52-44-2, +22.15u

Not a good week 9. Happens though, off to week 10.

Season plays:

Syracuse Under 4.5 Wins (4.2u to win 4): OFF
Georgia Tech Over 7 Wins (3.45u to win 3): OFF
South Carolina Over 7 Wins (2.4u to win 2): L 24-27 (6-3)

South Car. lost a tough one. The other teams were off.

Week 10 plays:

South Carolina +6 (2.75u to win 2.5)
Army/Air Force Over 45 (2.75u to win 2.5)
California -13.5 (2.2u to win 2)
North Carolina -2 (2.2u to win 2)
Fresno St. -20.5 (1.65u to win 1.5)
Temple +8.5 (1.65u to win 1.5)
Eastern Michigan/Toledo Under 63 (1.65u to win 1.5)

Week 10 leans:

TCU -3.5
Iowa +1
Colorado St. +21.5
Penn St. -7
Wake Forest -1.5
Air Force -16.5
San Jose St +26

Write-ups to come tonight or tomorrow. There is a chance that this will be my last week for College FB, as CBB starts in a week and I am way behind in preparation. Besides, the lines are starting to get very tight and it is getting tough to find value.

GL to all this week. :cheers:
 
Last edited:
Thanks RJ - edited.

JP - that game reminds me of Nebraska/Texas last week. The line should probably be 14-17, but the notion that Nebraska/Colorado St. have quit adds to the line. The Rams seem like a good bet if they actually come to play.
 
Like the Fresno pick dmoney. Watched every play of the utah state game last week and they simply cannot tackle. Power run game of fresno st off a loss at home should have its way with the aggies. cannot wait for the cincy wrrite up this week. great game that one should be. hehe that sentence was yoda like.
 
Thanks VK - should have that one up tomorrow night. Usually it would be up by now, but I am still looking over stuff for that game.
 
On Wake Forest -1 (2 units). Line does not make sense to me. UVA is a decent team; but not good. Wake has some great schemes, and they play above their potential.
 
Thanks Jimmy - definitely lean your way there.
Thanks pags - still looking at those games.

Adding:

Army/Air Force Over 45 (2.75u to win 2.5)
Eastern Michigan/Toledo Under 63 (1.65u to win 1.5)
 
Cincinnati at South Florida (-5)

http://frontier.cincinnati.com/blogs/cincybearcats/

Quick note before the write-up. Brian Kelly has yanked both RB Butler Benton and WR Marty Gilyard form the starting line-up. Benton had led the team in rushing for 434 yards, but he has had 2 critical fumbles in the last 2 games. Marty Gilyard is 3rd on the team in receiving with 425 yards, but he had 2 false starts against Pitt and has dropped some ball lately.

Benton will be replaced with Jacob Ramsey at RB. Ramsey is a fan favorite that many think should have been starting form the beginning. He seems like the team's most dynamic runner, with a unique combo of size and speed. He had several impressive runs early in the year in the non-conference teams, but it was speculated that his inability to pass protect kept him from getting consistent carries. He is also the closest that Cincy has to Ray Rice and Andre Dixon in terms of build, so that may be another reason they are making the move (considering that USF has struggled with these types of backs lately).

Now, here is where it gets interesting. Gilyard will be replaced with either Charley Howard or Armon Binns. These guys have combined for 28 receiving yards this season. I hope that Kelly has seen something from these guys in practice, because putting them into this situation seems peculiar.

The Game

When both teams were still undefeated, I firmly believed this was where USF would fall if they were still undefeated. Now, I am not sure what to think.

I don't believe that either team can fully take advantage of the other team's weaknesses. USF didn't seem to have any real chinks in the armor on defense until two weeks ago, when Ray Rice imposed his will against them. Cincinnati doesn't have a bruiser like Rice or Dixon that can tire out the defense, but they will do their best when they counter with freshman Jacob Ramsey on Saturday (with several appearances by RB Greg Moore, as well). Ramsey has 236 yards on 46 carries this season (5.1 avg), but most of these carries were early in the season.

Cincy Offense vs. South Florida D

I still feel that USF boasts a premier passing defense. I trust Ben Mauk not to make critical mistakes in this game, but I question the ability of this young receiving core to get separation from these USF DBs. Neither Teel nor Lorenzen did too much agaginst this pass defense over the last two weeks. Teel was only 11-29 for 179 (69 coming on one play), and I felt that he looked anxious and frustrated for a good portion of this game. Lorenzen was consisten, going for 13-25 for 194 yards. He did a good job playing off the running game, but he wasn't spectacular.

I expect to see a bunch of bubble and quick screens from Cincy here. I wouldn't be surprised to see some QB and RB draws as well. They will try to throw off this team early on before they get into the spread offense. For some reason, Kelly reverted back into a pro-style offense against Pittsburgh. Hopefully this is something we do not see again.

I am interested to see if the USF D is banged up after facing to bruising RBs.

South Florida Offense vs. Cincy D

South Florida has several contributors on offense, but some will be injured coming into this game.

WR Taurus Johnson (2nd leading receiver with 22 rec and 260 yards) is out for this game. Both WR Amari Jackson (21 rec, 247 yards) and RB Mike Ford (57 carries, 287 yards, 5.0 avg, 3rd leading RB) are listed as questionable. This will put more pressure on Ben Williams at RB and WRs Carlton Mitchell and Jessie Hester.

I don't think that Ben Williams/Mike Ford can do enough with a standard running game to demoralize this defense (though I said that about Pitt too, so take this thinking cautiously). What I do fear is the running of Matt Grothe. This team is prone to a running QB, and it wouldn't shock me to see Grothe get 22-25 carries in this one.

Cincy has been most vulnerable through the pass. However, USF hasn't really been consistent enough through the passing game. Amarri Jackson was supposed to be a breakthrough WR, but he has been prone to several dropped balls and concentration lapses. Also, with him and Taurus Johnson potentially out, this puts a huge strain on USF's WR depth. Like Cincy, it wouldn't shock be to see some screens and QB draws from this team.

I've flipped back and forth on this game, and frankly I still am having a tough time predicting what will happen. Both teams should be determined after two losses, but I am interested to see if either team is deflated after seemingly losing their dreams of a BE Championship in two weeks. I personally would stay away from this game. I don't see a blowout either way, and I really feel that either team could win.

South Florida 24
Cincinnati 21
 
Army/Air Force OVER 45

Normally a match-up of these two teams would conjure up thoughts of a low scoring game. However, I think this one goes over.

Funny thing happened with Air Force totals this season. Early in the season, rumors swirled that AF would be converting to a spread offense, putting the option attack on the backburner. Because of this news, we saw some totals in the low 50s and high 40s for AF games. Even though AF has employed some spread formations, talk of scraping the option attack was greatly exaggerated. Because of this, the first four AF games went under the total.

After this, Air Force totals have been shaded down to the low to mid 40s, despite the fact that a couple of these games were not exactly defensive struggles on paper (vs. Colorado St. and New Mexico)

Air Force offense vs. Army D

Army's D has been respectable against the pass this season, ranking 47th in division I. However, Air Force will absolutely shred this team on the ground. Army ranks 89th in rush defense (184.6 ypg), and AF ranks 6th in the nation in rushing (254 ypg). Air Force ran for 267 yards against Army last season, and it could have been more had the game not gotten out of hand early due to 4 early Army turnovers. In addition, this was still at a time where AF was not a threat through the air. Now that Air Force boasts both a solid running and passing attack - I feel that it will be very difficult for Army to stop them. Here is how Army has fared against rushing attacks as of late (taken from JPicks' thread):

Georgia Tech - 49 rushes for 308 yards, 6.3 ypc
C. Michigan - 30 rushes for 251 yards, 8.1 ypc
Tulane - 45 rushes for 247 yards, 5.5 ypc
Boston College - 37 rushes for 202 yards, 5.5 ypc

Wake Forest, Rhode Island, and Akron also had moderate success on the ground, but their numbers were slightly skewed due to sacks.

All of these numbers are against traditional running teams. Now that they have to face a unique rushing attack, I would be surprised if Af didn't have their way on the ground.

Army Offense vs. Air Force D

This the critical part of the game, as Army will have to get a couple of points to send this over the total. I am confident that Army can get into the teens/20s in this game. It all starts behind Jeremy Trimble in all phases of the game. Army is 117th in total offense, but Trimble is a force that could single-handedly put points on the board, whether it be through the air or in special teams.

This may not seem like much, but Army has scored at least 10 points in every game this season. I feel that this is important regarding this total, as I expect AF to be around the 35 area. This team has put up at least 10 points against several stingy defenses, including Georgia Tech, Boston College, and Wake Forest.

Air Force ranks 54th in total defense, and they are only giving up 19.2 ppg. However, I feel that this unit is overrated. I watched the entire game against New Mexico, and this unit struggled on multiple occasions. In addition, they have had the benefit of playing several weak offensive teams this season. They have played South Carolina St., a Brian Johnson-less Utah, TCU, UNLV, Colorado St., and Wyoming. With the exception of Colorado St., all of these teams is 80th or worse in total offense (Colorado St. is 74th). All of these teams are either outclassed or have teams that concentrate on defense.

In the 3 games against respectable offensive opponents (BYU, New Mexico, and Navy), they gave up at least 31 points. Now, Army obviously fits into the poor offensive teams category, but I did that to show that AF defense has had it relatively easy this season. Their numbers are definitely a bit deceiving.

Also, in every game against D-I opponents, Air Force has given up at least 12 points.

Air Force 35
Army 17
 
linde - ha, no that has been there since the beginning. I definitely respect leans/plays based on hunches, and I know where you are coming from in your description of the Purdue offense. Still mulling that game over.

Thanks Aztec - I love the play on the over. Reasons for the play are above.
 
ymmy write ups.

appreciate the work you put into your threads.

damn you are always on the right side of the line moves.
 
VK - thanks - I consider myself an average capper, so I decided that getting the best of lines was the way I could potentially win.

Thanks macdamn - GL this week.

Bob took Ohio, Arky, and PSU, which is against two of my plays and with the strongest of my leans. Because of this, I am likely done for the week. Air Force and San Jose St are the strongest of my remaining leans.
 
dmoney- lets fuken secure win #7 this wkend, please!

hell of a fuken writeup on the AF over as well, I really like that play. Best of luck this wk
 
JPicks said:
There's a ref somewhere in the ACC right now who has you AFA O45 money. :hang:
Click to expand...

Maybe, but I was far more disappointed with Army super-conservative tactics, regardless of score or situation.

Looks like a disasterous week (potentially 1-6). This will definitely be my last week betting CFB - might as well quit before I throw away all the profit from the season.

Usually won't bump my thread with weekly results, but I'll put my final numbers here once today is over.
 
Final Numbers:

Week 1: 5-5, +2.25u
Week 2: 5-4, +0.8u (also 0-1 on ML plays)
Week 3: 7-3-1, +6.85u (also 0-1 on ML plays)
Week 4: 6-6, -2.575u
Week 5: 6-4, +3.825u (also 0-3 on ML plays for -.75u)
Week 6: 6-4, +4.45u
Week 7: 9-4, +9.7u
Week 8: 5-4, +1.8u
Week 9: 3-5-1, -4.95u
Week 10: 1-6, -10.65u
Straight plays: 53-45-2, +13.05u
MLs: 0-5, -1.55u
Total: 53-50-2, +11.5u

Still pending Season plays:

Syracuse Under 4.5 Wins (4.2u to win 4): L 17-20 (2-7)
Georgia Tech Over 7 Wins (3.45u to win 3): L 3-27 (5-4)
South Carolina Over 7 Wins (2.4u to win 2): L 36-48 (6-4)

Syracuse is basically a lock. GT has @Duke and North Car. coming up, so they could still conceivably push. Need SC to split Florida and Clemson for the push.

These will be added to my "total" at the end of the season.


Thanks to all in the forum for the insight this season, and GL to everyone for the rest of the season. Hope to see you all in the CBB forum. :cheers:
 
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