Week 10 plays, leans, and Cincy/USF

Dmoney416

Dmoney416

Ben Mauk's Counsel
Week 1: 3-5, -2.75u
Week 2: 3-5, -0.87u
Week 3: 7-2-1, +6.15u
Week 4: 3-6, -3.35u
Week 5: 5-7, -4.57u
Week 6: 7-3, +3.4u
Week 7: 8-2, +5.93u
Week 8: 5-4, +4.03u
Week 9: 6-5-1, -1.1u
Straight plays: 47-37-2, +7.47u
Sides: 23-21-1, -4.24u
Game Totals: 24-13-1, +15.16u
Team Totals: 0-3, -3.45u
MLs: 0-2, -0.6u
Total: 47-39-2, +6.87u

Season plays:

Cincinnati OVER 6.5 Wins (+115) (10u to win 11.5): 5-2
Last Week: L 16-40 at Connecticut
Next: vs. South Florida

Purdue UNDER 7 Wins (-140) (1.4u to win 1): 2-6 (win)
Last Week: L 6-17 vs. Minnesota
Next: vs. Michigan

Week 10 plays:

Kent St. +9.5 (2.2u to win 2)
Northwestern/Minnesota Over 44 (2.2u to win 2)
FIU/UL-Lafayette Under 62 (2.2u to win 2)
Syracuse/Louisville Under 56 (1.65u to win 1.5)<!-- sig -->
North Texas +17 (1.65u to win 1.5)
Oregon/Cal Under 66.5 (1.32u to win 1.2)
Utah -7 (-120) (1.2u to win 1)
Clemson/BC Over 41.5 (1.1u to win 1)
South Florida/Cincinnati Under 50.5 (1.1u to win 1)
Temple +8 (1.1u to win 1)

<!-- / message -->
Week 8 leans (bolded leans are the stronger leans)

Cincinnati +2.5
Syracuse +14: outright again?
Illinois -1
Western Mich -17: someone tell me how Ball St. lays 27.5, and then WMU lays merely 17?
Texas A&M -2.5: Almost certain play - concerned about their horrendous DL though.
Pittsburgh +5: Missed 7, so a likely no play. Would need Stull too.
Georgia +5.5: Actually tried to bet +7 (-120), but missed.
Temple +7.5: Great match-up IMO.


BOL to all this week. :cheers:
 
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<TABLE class=BlogMain_MabAuthTable cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0><TBODY><TR><TD class=BlogMain_MabAuthTableRight>Tony Pike update - such as it is

Posted by BKoch at 10/26/2008 7:08 PM EDT on Cincinnati.com
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

Tony Pike's availibility for Thursday's game against USF will be a game-time decision. I'm told that he was at practice today, but it's unclear how much he actually participated. If Pike can't go, obviously, Chazz Anderson will run the show. The good news for UC is that, despite the loss at UConn, almost everyone in the Big East is struggling. Only West Virginia, at 2-0, has reached this juncture without a conference loss. Four teams have one loss, including UC, which means if the Bearcats can beat USF and then go to West Virginia the following week, they would be in relatively good shape with three league games remaining - at Louisville, Pittsburgh at home, and Syracuse at home.
 
would love for wvu to lose this week for obvious reasons.. cant get a great read on the game tho.. they are more talented with white and devine posting huge mismaches, but they will struggle on defense and are a bad road team.. what you think?
 
husky17 said:
would love for wvu to lose this week for obvious reasons.. cant get a great read on the game tho.. they are more talented with white and devine posting huge mismaches, but they will struggle on defense and are a bad road team.. what you think?
Click to expand...

I made WVU -2.5 (assuming Frazer plays), so I'd lean very slightly to UConn at this point. I just see WV as a finesse team that doesn't have what it takes to consistently get it done on the road (ECU, Colorado). Obviously you have the coaching advantage as well.

I have a lot more digging to do here, but I think Brown will get his and make this a very close game late. White and Devine do provide the definitive speed advantage, but I'm interested to see if that's enough.

If Frazer plays I don't see why UConn doesn't have a legit shot at winning at this point. Have to look deeper still though.
 
Grats on the purdue season total and thanks for pimping that in the offseason as your discusiions on that really pushed me over the edge to betting it.

thanks.
 
their incositencies make me wary to bet uconn, but they have won 11 straightat home, so that is a consistent factor that will make me wait till this line goes up, which it will.. i already see it at 4 at places.. Brown had a field day last year even though they got killed.. this is a better team with more weapons
 
being a wvu guy i know our style and how this team opperates....

we just had a huge win. WVU is a team that plays soley with momentum or lack there of. Big wins = more big wins and losses= more losses. This team just found out what it takes to win. Their defense has been good all year its the offense for once that has lagged. They have both now. From a value standpoint ATS UCONN is the play at +7.5 but thats it. Under a td i'd say WVU is money. BOH this week though
 
Those Big 10 totals bit us in the ass last week, but I suppose they were due.

New week, and new blood. Good luck D.
 
vegaskyle said:
Grats on the purdue season total and thanks for pimping that in the offseason as your discusiions on that really pushed me over the edge to betting it.

thanks.
Click to expand...

Thanks - glad to see you were on it too. Thank lindetrain also though, as he was the one who originally brought it up in our discussions of team totals. :cheers:
 
husky17 said:
their incositencies make me wary to bet uconn, but they have won 11 straightat home, so that is a consistent factor that will make me wait till this line goes up, which it will.. i already see it at 4 at places.. Brown had a field day last year even though they got killed.. this is a better team with more weapons
Click to expand...

An certainly an interesting one. Is Edsall keeping quiet on the QB situation again?
 
TroyStacks said:
being a wvu guy i know our style and how this team opperates....

we just had a huge win. WVU is a team that plays soley with momentum or lack there of. Big wins = more big wins and losses= more losses. This team just found out what it takes to win. Their defense has been good all year its the offense for once that has lagged. They have both now. From a value standpoint ATS UCONN is the play at +7.5 but thats it. Under a td i'd say WVU is money. BOH this week though
Click to expand...

GL this week Troy.

I won't be betting UConn unless the line approaches 6 or so. There was just some disagreement in the sunday morning thread as some were putting this line around a TD while others thought it would be closer to a FG.
 
Marlo Stanfield said:
Those Big 10 totals bit us in the ass last week, but I suppose they were due.

New week, and new blood. Good luck D.
Click to expand...

Yep, it was a rough one. Not worried though, as maybe they'll short them again.

I actually didn't even mind the NW total as I watched the whole game and Bacher gave away a bunch of opportunities.
 
Dmoney416 said:
An certainly an interesting one. Is Edsall keeping quiet on the QB situation again?
Click to expand...


Frazer is practicing, and im almost certain he'll start.. endres was a good fill in but the confidence is defenitely with zach.. the way he was tossing the ball around in the rutgers game is enough to believe in him.. he should start.. it will be known by thursday im sure
 
vegaskyle said:
Dmoney ... do you have any idea if the players care at all which qb is the guy for cincy ?
Click to expand...

If you read their quotes from this season, it would lead you to believe that they don't care:

"No offense to Coach (Brian) Kelly, but you could put him back there and we'd win." - OL Trevor Canfield before playing Marshall

"These guys were awesome in high school," "They're here for a reason. They'll do their job." - RB John Goebel

"It doesn't matter who's under the center. We trust all the guys that go under there. Both of those guys are highly capable of doing the job." - WR Mardy Gilyard


More:

UC head coach Brian Kelly wasn't surprised to hear that his players seem so unfazed after having lost two quarterbacks - first Dustin Grutza and then Tony Pike - to injury. They've seen a lot of both Collaros and Anderson in practice, first during the spring and then during the preseason.

Goebel worked extensively with Collaros and Anderson last year when all three of them were redshirted, so he saw first-hand what each can do.

"When my parents would ask me who's good, I could never choose," Goebel said. "I didn't know who I liked better, Zach or Chazz. On the scout team last year they would throw passes that I didn't know were possible. They'd be running back to the right and throw it back to the left on a dime.

"Zach is such a good scrambler. He kind of reminds me a little bit of (former UC quarterback) Ben Mauk in that he has the escapability and can still throw it downfield really far. He's got a great arm. Chazz, he's so smart. He's always in the playbook and Chazz can do a lot with his arm, too."

Goebel isn't the only player to have recognized similarities between Mauk, last year's starter, and Collaros. Mauk himself made the same comparison last year, and Gilyard also said he sees shades of Mauk in the raw freshman.

"I hate to put that tag on him like that, but I love him when he rolls out of the pocket," Gilyard said. "It's just so beautiful when the ball comes out of his hands when he rolls out. It's like pin-point accuracy with tight spirals. Chazz, he has a strong cannon for an arm. He likes to drop back and trust the pocket."

Kelly has not tipped his hand about which quarterback will start and has played along with questions from reporters about the competition between Collaros and Anderson, encouraging the notion that he doesn't know whom to choose, that he won't decide until just before the game Friday night, and that he probably will play both of them.

"My sense right now is that I want Marshall to prepare for multiple quarterbacks," he said Monday, "and I think each one of them brings something different to the table."

Still, neither has any meaningful experience in a game. Collaros threw four passes in relief of Pike at Akron last Saturday, and Anderson has yet to play in a college game.

No matter how good they might have looked in practice, no matter how impressively they might have run the scout team last year, it's not the same as playing on the road in a hostile environment when it really counts.

Sure, it's possible that whoever starts will play well and the offense won't skip a beat, but that won't happen without a lot of help from the rest of the offense.

Right guard Trevor Canfield says the offensive line is up to the task.

"We haven't given up a sack in two games," Canfield said. "No offense to Coach Kelly, but you could put him back there and we'd be all right. We've got confidence in Zach, Chazz, Pike, Demetrius (Jones), Grutza. Our offensive line is so strong that it really doesn't matter."
 
For what its worth, Brian Kelly is putting together a package for Zach Collaros for Thursday's game in case Anderson/Pike struggle (or maybe a surprise starter?).

This would further favor the under 51.
 
Forgot to add the totals from yesterday:

Northwestern/Minnesota Over 44 (2.2u to win 2)
FIU/UL-Lafayette Under 62 (2.2u to win 2)
Syracuse/Louisville Under 56 (1.65u to win 1.5)
Oregon/Cal Under 66.5 (1.32u to win 1.2)
Clemson/BC Over 41.5 (1.1u to win 1)
 
husky17 said:
Frazer is practicing, and im almost certain he'll start.. endres was a good fill in but the confidence is defenitely with zach.. the way he was tossing the ball around in the rutgers game is enough to believe in him.. he should start.. it will be known by thursday im sure
Click to expand...

Ok thanks. Would appreciate you letting me know if that plan changes at all.
 
vegaskyle said:
I see you like temple a little.

why waiting to play and why do you like ?
Click to expand...

I don't have too much to say here, but I think Navy has been up there with the luckiest teams in the nation to this point.

I think Temple front seven can slow the option, and I think Temple can beat them in the air.

The SMU game was very flukish.
 
horses said:
USF/'Nati total up to 51'; maybe it's best to just keep waiting...
Click to expand...

Saw the Greek go up to 51.5. Still at 51 on BM and Pinny. It briefly ticked to 51.5 at BM this morning but quickly went back down.

I just don't to be caught watching when some big wig hammers it down to 49.
 
South Florida/Cincinnati Under 50.5 (1.1u to win 1)

Needless to say, I won't be happy if this lands on 51.
 
Let's get this D; I actually think you made the better play than me but i get stubborn sometimes. Buying 1/2 pts or full points on totals isn't wise.
 
Aztec4Life said:
Dmoney - Is it official?...is Pike playing?...

:shake:
Click to expand...

I looked everywhere and couldn't find official word. That was the latest rumor/word to come out though, so that's the best I have to go on. I have to assume he's starting at this point.
 
Good Luck DMoney. I think if it stays Under your Cats win it.

You don't just walk into Nippert and expect to come out with a victory.

Mickens and the other corner NFL corners, they should hold down Grothe and possibly get some picks as Grothe overrated. So that evens the passing edge somewhat.

Think Cincy can win this running battle.

Cincy home dog on a Thursday, USF hates cold horrible horrible road recordin the north, and Kelly is the kind of coach who knows how to grind one out if needed and win shorthanded.
 
O-State said:
Good Luck DMoney. I think if it stays Under your Cats win it.

You don't just walk into Nippert and expect to come out with a victory.

Mickens and the other corner NFL corners, they should hold down Grothe and possibly get some picks as Grothe overrated. So that evens the passing edge somewhat.

Think Cincy can win this running battle.

Cincy home dog on a Thursday, USF hates cold horrible horrible road recordin the north, and Kelly is the kind of coach who knows how to grind one out if needed and win shorthanded.
Click to expand...

Thanks O. Should be mid-40s - hopefully thats enough to annoy USF. Hopefully Cincy can grind one out. :cheers:
 
nice hit on that under dmoney...tailed ya small on that and you made me feel much more confident in my cinci play.

i also like the way temple matches up and agree with your thoughts on navy. plus, for whatever reason, navy has been inflated at home for quite some time now. they have been horrible ats at home...

i'm on cuse and kent as well...couple of good lookin dogs. some tasty looking totals that i haven't really had a chance to look at with all the sides i have going on. may take a short cut and just look into yours since you're usually solid. gl this week...except on utah
 
Wow drooling at your oregon/cal under number.

guess i was late to the party this week.

Thing sits at 61 most places now ... incredible value for you.

nice hit on the under tonight and grats on being one game closer to BE title , bowl eligibility and a futures win.

I made the same kent st mistake this week as last week .... it's 6/6.5 now and unbettable for me .. nice number for you there as well.

You deserve a really good week when you have that much the best of it and i think you will have one .....again.
 
Nice W last night dmoney.. was on the other side.. oh well.. Anyway, There really is NO word about frazer or endres.. edsall is a master at the hush hush.. this makes me think Endres will start, but frazer is defenitely healthy enough to go.. it really is a toss up, but i lean to endres because he played last week and won...


Also, Darius Butler is going to be playing a LOT more wide reciever tomm, and a lot less cornerback.. This will spread the defense as another play maker will be on the field at all times.. really think don brown will have a huge day tomm, its just whether they can capitalize and punch it in each time..

good luck
 
joe - Thanks, glad to see you hit both. Temple is certainly at the top of my list and still may be added tomorrow. Syracuse is out of consideration though unless I get 14 again. BOL tomorrow.

VK - Thanks on Cincy - their season is going as I expected it might at 6-2. It might not be they way I envisioned they would get there, but they are there nevertheless. I am considering middling both Kent St. and the Cal total (58 - what the hell?). There has been some insane movement in both totals and sides this week that is quite unusual for this late in the season. GL tomorrow. Sorry about not getting to the box score stuff this week - the week kind of snuck up on me with the Phillies during the week and Cincy on Thursday.

aplous - Thanks - BOL on Saturday.

husky - Thanks for all the info on this game. If Frazer is healthy, why not start him? If they win here they control their BE title destiny (a little early to say that, but it would be true). If Endres plays, he'll just have to manage the game. GL tomorrow and enjoy the game if you happen to be going.

Grind - Thanks. Those two late goal line stands eliminated any tense moments down the stretch and made it a little easier than it should have been. GL tomorrow. 10 days....

Thanks Tim - keep up the great work this year with another solid Saturday.

Thanks bull - GL in your FBS and FCS action tonight and tomorrow. Leaning hard with you on the Owls.
 
GL this week D. What would you think about Kent +7. Would you still play it just for smaller? Pissed I missed that number most got of 9 or 9.5
 
signalcaller said:
GL this week D. What would you think about Kent +7. Would you still play it just for smaller? Pissed I missed that number most got of 9 or 9.5
Click to expand...

+7 would be the limit of where I'd play it. Both teams should score, so it could easily be a TD game. Outside of WMU/CMU/Ball St., I don't think any team in the MAC is really 7 points better than any other in the MAC. The middle of the pack is too unpredictable from week to week - I usually just take the points and ride with it.

If it ends up at +6 or so, I will consider middling my 9.5.
 
Thanks man, One more question. Doesnt the Iowa/Illinois total seem a tad high. I was thinking like a 21-17 type game. Your thoughts on that one would be great. Hope you have a big week
 
signalcaller said:
Thanks man, One more question. Doesnt the Iowa/Illinois total seem a tad high. I was thinking like a 21-17 type game. Your thoughts on that one would be great. Hope you have a big week
Click to expand...

I made it 48, so I do think its a little high, but not enough for me to play it. I think others made it higher though. Off the top of my head, I think Matador made it 52 or so (not sure, would have to check the totals thread). I also think I recall that kyle said that he had made it "significantly higher" than my 48. So there some differing opinions.

Before Wisconsin, Illinois did put up 500 yards in their previous three games. I guess the consensus is that Juice will get his against the Iowa D and that Greene will mow through the Illinois D.

It could come down to who sets the tempo. Illinois could come out firing, or Iowa could use a plodding/grind it out style running game to speed it up.

Iowa hasn't given up more than 22 points all season (they faced any great offenses though), so that is something to keep in mind here.

I would lean under a little bit, but would realistically need 53/54 to consider playing it. :cheers:
 
Dmoney416 said:
joe - Thanks, glad to see you hit both. Temple is certainly at the top of my list and still may be added tomorrow. Syracuse is out of consideration though unless I get 14 again. BOL tomorrow.

VK - Thanks on Cincy - their season is going as I expected it might at 6-2. It might not be they way I envisioned they would get there, but they are there nevertheless. I am considering middling both Kent St. and the Cal total (58 - what the hell?). There has been some insane movement in both totals and sides this week that is quite unusual for this late in the season. GL tomorrow. Sorry about not getting to the box score stuff this week - the week kind of snuck up on me with the Phillies during the week and Cincy on Thursday.

aplous - Thanks - BOL on Saturday.

husky - Thanks for all the info on this game. If Frazer is healthy, why not start him? If they win here they control their BE title destiny (a little early to say that, but it would be true). If Endres plays, he'll just have to manage the game. GL tomorrow and enjoy the game if you happen to be going.

Grind - Thanks. Those two late goal line stands eliminated any tense moments down the stretch and made it a little easier than it should have been. GL tomorrow. 10 days....

Thanks Tim - keep up the great work this year with another solid Saturday.

Thanks bull - GL in your FBS and FCS action tonight and tomorrow. Leaning hard with you on the Owls.
Click to expand...


Heavy rain is expected for the cal game which is the basis of the move downward there dmoney. if prior to kickoff you see good weather the middle is probably more valuable than the ticket .. but if it's raining cats and dogs you might have more EV with the locked in bet. in my opinion but i tend to guess wrong on when to middle and when not to sometimes so what the hell do i know.
 
vegaskyle said:
Heavy rain is expected for the cal game which is the basis of the move downward there dmoney. if prior to kickoff you see good weather the middle is probably more valuable than the ticket .. but if it's raining cats and dogs you might have more EV with the locked in bet. in my opinion but i tend to guess wrong on when to middle and when not to sometimes so what the hell do i know.
Click to expand...

Thanks - I remember rain being expected on Tuesday, but hadn't checked recently.

I also always choose wrong in this situations.
 
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