Week #10 of CFB

Yanks27Sox9

Yanks27Sox9

CTG Partner
2007:
CFB ATS: 55-54-3, -0.175 units
CFB ML: 1-3, -1.75 units
CFB O/U: 20-22-0, -3.70 units
------------------------------
CFB Total/YTD: 76-79-3, -5.625 units

Which makes it two straight weeks under the Mendoza line this season. Not good...especially in terms of totals.
Anyways, made my first 3 plays of the new week tonight. I'll get into them more later, but just posting them for now.


Thursday, 11/1

Georgia Tech (-2.5) over Virginia Tech (-110) for 1.5 units L

Saturday, 11/3

Navy (+3.5) over Notre Dame (-110) for 1.5 units

Michigan (-4) over Michigan St (-110) for 2 units

Saturday, 11/3 (additions)

S Florida (-5) over Cincinnati (-104) for 1.5 units

Penn St (-8) over Purdue (-106) for 1.5 units

LSU (-7) over Alabama (+105) for 1.5 units

Arizona St (+7.5) over Oregon (-110) for 1 unit

New Mexico (+3.5) over TCU (-110) for 1 unit

E Michigan/Toledo over 62.5 (-106) for 1 unit

Texas Tech (-20) over Baylor (-110) for 1.5 units

Texas/Oklahoma St over 61 (-104) for 1 unit

Virginia (pk) over Wake Forest (-110) for 1.5 units

San Diego St (+4) over Wyoming (-110) for 1.5 units

Ohio St (-16) over Wisconsin (-105) for 2 units


And that's the final card for the week, with all the last minute additions.
Anyways, off to bed finally. Happy capping this week...and BOL.
:cheers:
 
Last edited:
sportfanatic71 said:
Still like GT with no choice or grant at RB???
Click to expand...


First off, i added a 2nd unit (as planned) on UM.



Now, all the GT questions...

When i made the play, i had read this...

Gailey said he planned to use three tailbacks against Virginia Tech: Grant, freshman Jonathan Dwyer and sophomore Jamaal Evans.
"We'll go with a three-man deal," Gailey said. "All three of them are going to play in the ballgame. Who starts really to me is immaterial. It will be a team effort."

Choice is definitely a loss, but i was expecting Grant.
However, i did find tonight that Grant is definitely out. Yet i'm still fine with my play, and i'm not gonna hedge out of it.

Here are my reasons...in no particular order.

- VT also has injury issues, and Taylor's ankle is still a problem. Glennon pretty much blows. Just a poor QB, overall. Wasn't his fault, but i got moosed taking them last thursday. But if he was any good, the moose woulda never had the opportunity to come knocking. In any case, there's no arguing VT is coming off a huge emotional/demoralizing loss.

- GT is obviously at home. But they've had 5 days more than VTech to prepare (and get healthy, outside of RB) for the game. Public's all over VaTech too, if you're into that, yet the line's crept up to 3 at some shops.

- We have 2 very good, and very comparable, defenses here...though GT has been slightly better.

<TABLE class=data cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=2><TBODY><TR><TD class=datahead colSpan=7>Overall </TD></TR><TR><TD class=datahl2>Off</TD><TD class=datahl2>Avg</TD><TD class=datahl2>Yards</TD><TD class=datahl2>Pass</TD><TD class=datahl2>Rush</TD><TD class=datahl2>Y/R</TD><TD class=datahl2>Y/A</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datahl2>VATCH
GATCH</TD><TD class=datacell>25.9
28.1</TD><TD class=datacell>294.6
390.5</TD><TD class=datacell>175.6
171.5</TD><TD class=datacell>119.0
219.0</TD><TD class=datacell>3.2
5.0
</TD><TD class=datacell>6.7
6.3
</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datahl2>Def</TD><TD class=datahl2>Avg</TD><TD class=datahl2>Yards</TD><TD class=datahl2>Pass</TD><TD class=datahl2>Rush</TD><TD class=datahl2>Y/R</TD><TD class=datahl2>Y/A</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datahl2>VATCH
GATCH</TD><TD class=datacell>15.8
15.5</TD><TD class=datacell>304.0
287.9</TD><TD class=datacell>214.2
200.9</TD><TD class=datacell>89.8
87.0</TD><TD class=datacell>2.7
2.5
</TD><TD class=datacell>5.7
6.9
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

But it's not so comparable (defensively) when you look at home/road #'s.

<TABLE class=data cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=2><TBODY><TR><TD class=datahead colSpan=7>Home/Away </TD></TR><TR><TD class=datahl2>Off</TD><TD class=datahl2>Avg</TD><TD class=datahl2>Yards </TD><TD class=datahl2>Pass</TD><TD class=datahl2>Rush</TD><TD class=datahl2>Y/R</TD><TD class=datahl2>Y/A</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datahl2>VATCH
GATCH</TD><TD class=datacell>30.3
31.5</TD><TD class=datacell>271.0
382.8</TD><TD class=datacell>163.0
149.5</TD><TD class=datacell>108.0
233.2</TD><TD class=datacell>3.0
5.2</TD><TD class=datacell>6.7
6.5
</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datahl2>Def</TD><TD class=datahl2>Avg</TD><TD class=datahl2>Yards</TD><TD class=datahl2>Pass</TD><TD class=datahl2>Rush</TD><TD class=datahl2>Y/R</TD><TD class=datahl2>Y/A</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datahl2>VATCH
GATCH</TD><TD class=datacell>28.3
12.8</TD><TD class=datacell>390.7
315.2</TD><TD class=datacell>265.0
233.2</TD><TD class=datacell>125.7
82.0</TD><TD class=datacell>3.8
2.6
</TD><TD class=datacell>6.3
6.7
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
VTech isn't the same defense away from Blacksburg.

- Then there's the offense. Obviously, GT has much better #'s...all w/ the rushing attack though, as the other #'s are very comparable.
So missing the top 2 RBs will definitely hurt. That said, i'm fairly confident that the freshman and sophomore RB's will have some success, and find the same holes. Reading some GT bulletin boards, they've both been talked up quite a bit. So as long as they hold onto the ball, i think it'll all be ok. It's not like i expect the 100 yards more per game than what VT is averaging...but i do expect them to still have the overall offensive advantage in the game, as it'll be the o-line that creates the running game.
But it'll all come down to turnovers in the end. Will the young RBs hold onto the ball? Will Glennon not turn it over? We shall see...but barring a turnover margin in VT's favor, I see GT winning the game by 7 or 8 pts still.
 
interesting...

so no one's eyebrows are raised when vegas opens this at GT -2.5, favoring the unranked team (at home) over the #13 team in the country?

then it hits the offshores...and despite when it seems like everyone and their brother is on VT, considering the 2 injuries at RB now for GT, the line hasn't budged...well, except for briefly going to GT -3 the other night...and still no eyebrows are raised?

well, good health to the overwhelming majority of VT backers on Thurs nite. but imo, it's a lot like weeknight home dogs in october...after seeing these situations over the years...you either go with it all, or simply lay off.

but that's jsut my take...and i could be wrong.
 
Yanks26Sox7 said:
interesting...

so no one's eyebrows are raised when vegas opens this at GT -2.5, favoring the unranked team (at home) over the #13 team in the country?

then it hits the offshores...and despite when it seems like everyone and their brother is on VT, considering the 2 injuries at RB now for GT, the line hasn't budged...well, except for briefly going to GT -3 the other night...and still no eyebrows are raised?

well, good health to the overwhelming majority of VT backers on Thurs nite. but imo, it's a lot like weeknight home dogs in october...after seeing these situations over the years...you either go with it all, or simply lay off.

but that's jsut my take...and i could be wrong.
Click to expand...

:shake:
 
Yanks26Sox7 said:
- VT also has injury issues, and Taylor's ankle is still a problem. Glennon pretty much blows. Just a poor QB, overall. Wasn't his fault, but i got moosed taking them last thursday. But if he was any good, the moose woulda never had the opportunity to come knocking. In any case, there's no arguing VT is coming off a huge emotional/demoralizing loss.Agree, its certainly an issue I have with this play. A TRUE frosh on the road vs. a good defense will lead to some mistakes, how many, I don't know. Taylor is not the best passing QB either as it is. Now the problem with Glennon is that you get experience and still some shit results. He is like a Reggie Ball type QB that no matter what just sucks. You raise a good point about the demoralizing loss as well since they led for 59minutes of that game.

- GT is obviously at home. But they've had 5 days more than VTech to prepare (and get healthy, outside of RB) for the game. Public's all over VaTech too, if you're into that, yet the line's crept up to 3 at some shops. Interesting

- We have 2 very good, and very comparable, defenses here...though GT has been slightly better.

<TABLE class=data cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=2><TBODY><TR><TD class=datahead colSpan=7>Overall </TD></TR><TR><TD class=datahl2>Off</TD><TD class=datahl2>Avg</TD><TD class=datahl2>Yards</TD><TD class=datahl2>Pass</TD><TD class=datahl2>Rush</TD><TD class=datahl2>Y/R</TD><TD class=datahl2>Y/A</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datahl2>VATCH
GATCH
</TD><TD class=datacell>25.9
28.1
</TD><TD class=datacell>294.6
390.5
</TD><TD class=datacell>175.6
171.5
</TD><TD class=datacell>119.0
219.0
</TD><TD class=datacell>3.2
5.0

</TD><TD class=datacell>6.7
6.3

</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datahl2>Def</TD><TD class=datahl2>Avg</TD><TD class=datahl2>Yards</TD><TD class=datahl2>Pass</TD><TD class=datahl2>Rush</TD><TD class=datahl2>Y/R</TD><TD class=datahl2>Y/A</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datahl2>VATCH
GATCH
</TD><TD class=datacell>15.8
15.5
</TD><TD class=datacell>304.0
287.9
</TD><TD class=datacell>214.2
200.9
</TD><TD class=datacell>89.8
87.0
</TD><TD class=datacell>2.7
2.5

</TD><TD class=datacell>5.7
6.9

</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

But it's not so comparable (defensively) when you look at home/road #'s.

<TABLE class=data cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=2><TBODY><TR><TD class=datahead colSpan=7>Home/Away </TD></TR><TR><TD class=datahl2>Off</TD><TD class=datahl2>Avg</TD><TD class=datahl2>Yards </TD><TD class=datahl2>Pass</TD><TD class=datahl2>Rush</TD><TD class=datahl2>Y/R</TD><TD class=datahl2>Y/A</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datahl2>VATCH
GATCH
</TD><TD class=datacell>30.3
31.5
</TD><TD class=datacell>271.0
382.8
</TD><TD class=datacell>163.0
149.5
</TD><TD class=datacell>108.0
233.2
</TD><TD class=datacell>3.0
5.2
</TD><TD class=datacell>6.7
6.5

</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datahl2>Def</TD><TD class=datahl2>Avg</TD><TD class=datahl2>Yards</TD><TD class=datahl2>Pass</TD><TD class=datahl2>Rush</TD><TD class=datahl2>Y/R</TD><TD class=datahl2>Y/A</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datahl2>VATCH
GATCH
</TD><TD class=datacell>28.3
12.8
</TD><TD class=datacell>390.7
315.2
</TD><TD class=datacell>265.0
233.2
</TD><TD class=datacell>125.7
82.0
</TD><TD class=datacell>3.8
2.6

</TD><TD class=datacell>6.3
6.7

</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
VTech isn't the same defense away from Blacksburg.

How much does LSU affect those numbers? They've played only 3 away games this yr so giving up 600yds of offense in 1 game is going to skew those numbers.

- Then there's the offense. Obviously, GT has much better #'s...all w/ the rushing attack though, as the other #'s are very comparable.
So missing the top 2 RBs will definitely hurt. That said, i'm fairly confident that the freshman and sophomore RB's will have some success, and find the same holes.
I think this is going to be an issue. GT has a good vetern line but asking a true frosh to carry the load vs. this defense is going to be tough. There are holes vs. the defense but they close quick because of the speed. In this game, I give VT maybe the edge at RB.

Reading some GT bulletin boards, they've both been talked up quite a bit. So as long as they hold onto the ball, i think it'll all be ok. It's not like i expect the 100 yards more per game than what VT is averaging...but i do expect them to still have the overall offensive advantage in the game, as it'll be the o-line that creates the running game.


But it'll all come down to turnovers in the end. Will the young RBs hold onto the ball? Will Glennon not turn it over? We shall see...but barring a turnover margin in VT's favor, I see GT winning the game by 7 or 8 pts still.
Click to expand...

GT has showed me they can win a game with no offense (Clemson) and you make some good points for GT. I don't trust Taylor Bennett anymore than I trust Sean Glennon though and that is important with the top 2 RB's out of the game. I have never considered backing GT in this game just because I like VT coaching, special teams, and defense more than GT. I likely won't play a side in this game but I think it is going under. Last yr the total was 37 and the end result was 38-27 GT. This yr the total is 41 and I just can't see either team pulling that off again.
 
you may be right w/ that under. but if both poor QBs throw some picks, turnovers will quickly kill that number.

vtech, and the under to a lessor extent, are SO public right now. just not comfortable with the total in this game, personally...kinda like you might be in terms of the side.

Good point about the young RBs. When they've played though...albeit against lessor quality teams...they have been pretty successful. We shall see, i guess.
 
Yanks26Sox7 said:
interesting...

so no one's eyebrows are raised when vegas opens this at GT -2.5, favoring the unranked team (at home) over the #13 team in the country?

then it hits the offshores...and despite when it seems like everyone and their brother is on VT, considering the 2 injuries at RB now for GT, the line hasn't budged...well, except for briefly going to GT -3 the other night...and still no eyebrows are raised?

well, good health to the overwhelming majority of VT backers on Thurs nite. but imo, it's a lot like weeknight home dogs in october...after seeing these situations over the years...you either go with it all, or simply lay off.

but that's jsut my take...and i could be wrong.
Click to expand...


Me and you think a lot alike. Go Georgia Tech. :smiley_acbe:
 
Thx, everyone. :cheers:

Sorry GT shit the bed on Thursday. But Saturday will turn out much better.

Enjoy the big games. :tiphat:
 
Glad you added the Hova I was talking to you about last night..Great start..so far for it

Nice routine buckeye backdoor..heh
 
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