-week 10 nfl-

broadwayjoe

broadwayjoe

May 5Dimes MLB 2nd place
preseason: 13-4 +9.10
sides: 32-28 +2.10
totals: 3-4 -1.40
ml dogs: 13-25 +4.95
big plays: 10-6 +21.15 (one 5u play; one 10u play)
ytd: +35.90

pending season win totals (props 0-4 -2.00 so far)...

Cowboys UNDER 10.5 (+120)
Raiders OVER 6.5 (+145)
Dolphins OVER 5.5 (+105)
Panthers UNDER 7.5 (+150)

i said last week after that loss that i wouldn't bet the browns, well i don't necessarily endorse a fade here because all the excitement around brady will add a spark, and i've been betting against denver all year -- those of you who know me know that i think denver may be the most overrated team in the league and have thought so since week 1. there will be plenty of opportunities for the browns' weapons to get free downfield, and jlewis should have his highest season rushing total. still think the brady move is completely wrong long term, and still think there will definitely be an element of quit for a lot of aspects of the team -- namely injuries, where you will find a lot of questionable people sitting out where they'd normally go. rogers, corey williams, steinbach, and of course that pussy stallworth are among those that are questionable. not enough time for the defense to prepare, and den defense has little tape on brady that's relative. i believe a lot of that will come on the defensive end against a good offense with wr depth that we struggle with. i think we'll be able to score at that horrible den defense at home, and everyone will say how brady was the missing link, etc, etc...idiotic fans haha. these are some of my reasons for playing the over here...

Broncos/Browns OVER 46

Bills +4/ML

Falcons -1

Rams +9/ML

Raiders +9/ML

Eagles -3 (+105)

Texans +1

Niners +9.5

couple should make it to big plays for me, and will probably add a couple of totals....we'll see how thursday goes with this over and my 15unit play on the utes

GL:cheers:


 
some quick thoughts....

bills - i've called every bills game except last week correctly. they're a pretty easy team to read and i don't normally like to bet them on the road but this is in their backyard, and i see this as one of those passing the torches games. think the bills are the real deal and have what it takes to win this division. pats have been wishy washy on the surface, but i think i've read them pretty good too. they've turned into a resilient, gritty team with a lot of limitations. i was wrong that the colts would cover last week, but was right that they would struggle to score. i think they'll struggle to score here too. 20-14 bills

falcons - no idea why this isn't -3.5. can the saints defense get off the field here? may be 40/20 t.o.p. huge game in this dogfight division. i'll take the better team (right now) at home that will control the clock and the game.

rams - simply put, the jets aren't the caliber of team to lay this many to anyone except the chiefs or lions imo.

raiders - haha because i'm sick, that's why. look at my win totals in post 1. these are the two that i have pretty much lost, and i'm sticking to my guns here. didn't anticipate the raiders turmoil compounding to this extent, but they still have talent, and i guess i'm going down with the ship here. they should still put forth effort as professionals (i think they're professionals). should be interesting...a game that involves perhaps my two biggest mistakes in evaluation as shown in the first half of the season at least.

eagles - had a tough time here, but a lot had to do with the plus money. different team with westbrook, and i like the fact that they traveled twice across the country and got wins. not sure how much this phil offense can do; may actually look at the under here too. this looks to me like another situation where eli will struggle. if it moves in my direction and i can get out of it, which i doubt, i may bail. my least favorite play on the card, but tough to pass up plus money on a divisional game like this.

texans - two teams that are different teams home/away. if it weren't for the browns self-destruction, it looked bleak for the ravens on the road last week. houston will be able to score, and i think they win this game rather easily.

niners - i happen to love singletary, and this line makes zero sense. you wanna crown the cards and make them dd favs, then go ahead, crown their asses. i would like to hear some cards backers' opinions...no idea how you could see value in this line
 
With you on ATL bro, but going the other way with Balty.

Flacco actually looked really good last week, on the road at Cleveland.

I don't know why everyone smashes on Balty, saying they play like crap on the road. Look at their defensive stats in their road games this season...

Week 4 @ PIT --> Limited PIT to 69 yards rushing at 2.5 ypc. Rothlisberger was 14 of 24 for 191 yards, 1 TD 1 INT. Baltimore outgained PIT offensively.

Week 6 @ Indy --> TERRIBLE spot here for Balty, and was obviously there worst road performance this season. Limited IND to 76 yards rushing at 2.5 ypc. Manning had his best game of the year, completing 19 of 28 for 271, 3 TD 0 INT. Indy still only totaled 334 yards of offense, and outgained Balty by 75 yards.

Week 7 @ MIA --> Limited MIA to 71 yards rushing at 3.2 ypc. Pennington had a great day, but still struggled to convert drives to points, as the Baltimore defense did well to keep the Phins out of the endzone. Pennington was 24 of 35 for 295 yards, 1 TD 1 INT. Baltimore won TOP because they ran the ball with success. Both teams totaled around 360 yards of offense.

Week 9 @ CLE --> Baltimore ran ALL OVER Cleveland in this game, and statistically, dominated on both sides of the ball. Recall, one of Cleveland's TDs was a kick return by Cribbs. So, Cleveland really only put up 20 on Baltimore's defense, and one field goal was a 54 yarder by Dawson. Balty limited Cleveland to 64 yards rushing at 2.8 ypc. Anderson was 17 of 33 for 219 yards, 2 TDs 1 INT.

IMO, those are pretty solid road performances, with the exception of the loss against Indy, and Balty has shut down the rushing attack in EVERY road game this season. Again, I'm scratching my head, wondering why people say Baltimore plays bad on the road. Not to mention, Rosenfels is starting this week...and I put all four QB's above ahead if Rosenfels in terms of potential and talent.

Good luck on Atlanta...good health on Houston.

:shake:
 
agree they've always been good at stopping the run home/away, but those aren't numbers to write home about in the passing game. only the browns could have lost that game last week. they ran on the browns like hell, yes...but everyone runs on us. there were so many mistakes that were self-inflicted on the browns part that the stats and the final score was skewed imo. browns could do virtually whatever they wanted in the passing game--the opportunities were there they just didn't capitalize which is why these changes are happening this week. flacco has been decent on the road, but i don't know how much longer that can hold up for the rookie, in which i have a lot of respect for and i think has excellent potential. he has made a couple of key mistakes on the road, and all he did against hte browns was pick on mcdonald, who looked lost. not downplaying that, that's your job to pick on the weak guy, but just sayin he wasn't necessarily spreading it out all over the field to get his numbers. he was locating mcdonald, and throwing hte ball there. he should still have a good game on the road this week against one of the weakest secondaries in the league, but i'm hoping they'll be able to contain the run and get some pressure on him. maybe i'm relying too much on the last couple of years for ravens on the road...different coach and different offense helps aid that, but i don't bet on them when they're at home, so you gotta find spots to fade them on the road, and i think this team has the weapons to exploit their secondary
 
broadwayjoe said:
agree they've always been good at stopping the run home/away, but those aren't numbers to write home about in the passing game. only the browns could have lost that game last week. they ran on the browns like hell, yes...but everyone runs on us. there were so many mistakes that were self-inflicted on the browns part that the stats and the final score was skewed imo. browns could do virtually whatever they wanted in the passing game--the opportunities were there they just didn't capitalize which is why these changes are happening this week. flacco has been decent on the road, but i don't know how much longer that can hold up for the rookie, in which i have a lot of respect for and i think has excellent potential. he has made a couple of key mistakes on the road, and all he did against hte browns was pick on mcdonald, who looked lost. not downplaying that, that's your job to pick on the weak guy, but just sayin he wasn't necessarily spreading it out all over the field to get his numbers. he was locating mcdonald, and throwing hte ball there. he should still have a good game on the road this week against one of the weakest secondaries in the league, but i'm hoping they'll be able to contain the run and get some pressure on him. maybe i'm relying too much on the last couple of years for ravens on the road...different coach and different offense helps aid that, but i don't bet on them when they're at home, so you gotta find spots to fade them on the road, and i think this team has the weapons to exploit their secondary
Click to expand...

I watched the game...considering Anderson only completed 50% of his passes, I strongly disagree. IMO, Balty's defense played pretty well. I guess it's just a difference of opinion. Still...you're taking a big risk, betting on Sage. You're putting your money in the hands of a backup QB, who's playing one of the top 3 defensive units in the AFC, regardless of whether or not they're on the road...that's ballsy.

GL joe.

:shake:
 
Bills really missing Schoebel though and cant pressure the QB. Cassel if he isnt pressured will chew apart that defense IMO. Plus teams are just doubling Lee Evans and that kills what they call an offense .

As far as balt's defense well if they are playing good then why outside of Miami is everyone scoring 20 pts ?? In response to Atzec actually. Some defenses allow alot of yards but keep teams off the scoreboard or hold them to FGs . So Balt playing good defense and still seeing opponents crack 20+ pts regardless of how is still part of their profile IMO .

I wouldnt expect Houston to run much on them but Slaton ran on Tenny pretty well . So dont be suprised if he has an above average day either . Balt has always struggled defending the pass on the road and Sage can wing it . He is one of the 5 or so backups who should be starting somewhere.

42/62 3tds 2ints 2 fumbles 470yds 7.6 YPA

LYR 4-1 as starter including 3-0 at home late in the year TB , Den , Jax . he almost rallied Hou back vs Tenny down 32-6 to start the 4th Q last season . Well he did but Tenny hit a FG as time expired .

Think you are underestimating him greatly....
 
SportsNut said:
Bills really missing Schoebel though and cant pressure the QB. Cassel if he isnt pressured will chew apart that defense IMO. Plus teams are just doubling Lee Evans and that kills what they call an offense .

As far as balt's defense well if they are playing good then why outside of Miami is everyone scoring 20 pts ?? In response to Atzec actually. Some defenses allow alot of yards but keep teams off the scoreboard or hold them to FGs . So Balt playing good defense and still seeing opponents crack 20+ pts regardless of how is still part of their profile IMO .

I wouldnt expect Houston to run much on them but Slaton ran on Tenny pretty well . So dont be suprised if he has an above average day either . Balt has always struggled defending the pass on the road and Sage can wing it . He is one of the 5 or so backups who should be starting somewhere.

42/62 3tds 2ints 2 fumbles 470yds 7.6 YPA

LYR 4-1 as starter including 3-0 at home late in the year TB , Den , Jax . he almost rallied Hou back vs Tenny down 32-6 to start the 4th Q last season . Well he did but Tenny hit a FG as time expired .

Think you are underestimating him greatly....
Click to expand...

I respect your opinion, but I think you're overrating him. Regardless of how much they're paying Schaub, if Rosenfels was THAT good, he would be the starter. On the year, Rosenfels is 42 of 62 for 470 yards, 3 TDs and 2 INTs...and most of those stats were chalked up against a rather unimpressive Minny defense. Hell, Orton lit up Minny like a Christmas tree, so I'm not impressed by Rosenfels numbers thus far. In his only previous game against Baltimore, he had a QB rating of 42.0, and was 16 of 38 for 264 yards, 1 TD and 3 INTs.

Also...no one is talking about Houston's DEFENSE...a squad that has given up 31 to Indi, 28 to Miami, and 21 to Detroit...in their most recent games AT HOME. They've allowed a total of 213 points so far this season, and give up nearly 27 points/game! That bodes very, very well for Balty, IMO.

Granted, Balty hasn't been much better, as they've given up an average of 23 points/game on the road this year...but again, the DEFENSE only gave up 20 points to Cleveland, not 27. So that number is a tad inflated, IMO.

When it comes down to it, I just think Balty is a better team, with a better defense and a better running game. I'm not saying Rosenfels is crap, because he's a solid backup. But if Houston is going to win, they'll need to do it thru the air...and I don't think Rosenfels can do it on his own. I'll take my chances with Balty at pick.

:cheers:
 
Last edited:
well i should have in fact gotten on the fade train. another unbelievable meltdown by the fuckin browns. at least the over was easy.
 
adding:

Chargers -15 - i have seen and heard so many people that think the chiefs are coming around, and maybe they will come around and do some things for me ATS in december at home, but all this talk about thigpen's numbers and improvement are laughable. i've heard several people say he can exploit the chargers weak pass defense. i agree their pass defense is weak, but the chiefs can't exploit it...they'll be lucky to score imo. 28-6 chargers

Dolphins -7.5 - why don't they just have the seahawks fly to peru and maybe they can play a football game there? how many ridiculous east coast trips do they have to make this year? tampa they should have never even been close, still lost by double digits, and buffalo and new york they got waxed. i don't believe in the seahawks, and definitely don't believe in them traveling 3000+ miles. 24-10 dolphins

Jags/Lions UNDER 43.5 - this can win two ways, which i like. the lions keep it close and lose 20-16 or get blown out and lose 38-3. either way, i think this one goes under the total.

Packers/Vikings UNDER 44.5 - to me this thing looks sky high, which is concerning, but i am seeing a 17-13 type win for the vikings here.

Vikings -2 - like the home team in this division matchup. gb hardly took care of business at home for most of the game in week 1, and minny always a tough place to play...i like giving under a fg here in a game where the packers are coming off a tough physical game last week
 
got the moneylines locked in at:

Bills +165
Rams +360
Raiders +380

upgraded bills, falcons plays

***BIG PLAY - Bills +4***

***BIG PLAY - Falcons -1***

what a massive card...gl fellas
 
of your money lines I really think the value on the Rams is superb.. Hope you hit that one and GL on the rest..

I do not understand all the love for the Falcolns around here however..
 
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