Week 10 - NFL BLITZ

BlitzBandit

Friend of CTG
All-Out Blitz: 32-32 (+0.9 units)


Monday Night Blitz: 5-2 (+7.5 units)


** Last 6 Weeks ** 25-19 (+9.9 units)


Week 9 - (3-5) (-9 units)

Week 8 - (4-5) (-4.5 units)

Week 7 - (4-1) (+5.8 units)

Week 6 - (4-5) (-1.9 units)

Week 5 - (7-3) (+9.5 units)

Week 4 - (3-0) (+10 units)

Week 3 - (5-2) (+2.8 units)

Week 2 - (2-8) (-6.8 units)

Week 1 - (0-3) (-5 units)



Coming off my worst week of the season. I was actually 3-3 going into the afternoon games but I was not around to make my afternoon leans (Hou, Indy) official... had I done that, I woulda been up and would have avoided the night game and probably not messed with the Monday Nighter.. instead, I took a hit with Philly Sunday Night and then forced some action on a Monday Night total play... that's right.. I played my first total... and my last.

Well, enough with the crying. I think I'm just playing too many plays. It has worked well for me in the past years, but for some reason, this year doesn't seem like a good one to do that. You have teams like Buffalo beating Cincy straight up, and Cleveland beating Cincy and Seattle Straight up. Then you have teams like New England covering a 15 pt spread against what seems to be a tough Washington team and Pitt covering a high spread against a division foe in Baltimore.

I'll be getting really picky on what I take from here on.

Three of the last four weeks have been pretty brutal and I'm not going to take that shit sitting down... it's time to make some adjusments and start cashing in... enough of the bullshit...


now with all that said, let's move on to week 10...



San Francisco @ Seattle -10

( 4 units )


This is the first and only play I'm making official right now. The Niners just plain suck. They have four losses by double digits and their two wins were by a measley fg against Arizona and a one point win against St. Louis. Alex Smith is crap too. He has more interceptions and fumbles than he does touchdowns. His O-Line has given up 28 sacks and now they face a Seattle Defense with 23 sacks to date. About their only bright spot is Gore, but he can't seem to play a full game these days, and besides, Seattle is ranked 13th at stopping the run.. once they shut down the running game, that's it... it will be Alex Smith to Bobby Engram all day.. ;)

Seriously though... SF should not have any business staying in this one. They are off a loss where Smith threw a last second pick inside the redzone. That should be enough to depress any team... but the fact it happened against the Falcons makes it that much more depressing. Seattle is off an overtime loss.. a stinger. They will take it out on the poor Niners at home this week.

It seems Seattle should run away with the Division and shouldn't be up for this one much against this crap Niner team, but since it's a Monday Nighter, what better team to show off your talent with?.. hehe.




here's my leans...


Minnesota +6 @ GB

St. Louis +11.5 @ NO

Atlanta +4 @ CAR

Cincinnati +4.5 @ BAL

DET @ Arizona -1

Dallas -1 @ NYG





gl to all this week


thoughts and comments welcome...
 
like cincy to win su
like zona
liked minn but after looking at the matchup and considering bollinger will be starting Im not sure I can lay money on them.
Dallas game is tough call but lean towards dallas. Giants off a bye and will be able to pressure romo.

GL THis week :cheers:
 
Yeah i had the worst week of the season last week too my friend.

I like the seattle call especially off there close loss...morris might be in for alexander who has been horseshit and tampered with injury.

Kind of like ur G-men off the bye, but if you end up hitting dallas i might pass since you prolly know ur team better than i do..haha
 
Dallas game is tough call but lean towards dallas. Giants off a bye and will be able to pressure romo.


yea.. I think this game is gonna end up going down to the wire and risking money on a side that should be that close probably just aint worth it... at least not in my opinion... I still lean a bit to Dallas, but I could probably be swayed either way... that's enough for me to just lay off... I just wouldn't be surprised at all to see either team win.

gl this week bud.
 
Yeah i had the worst week of the season last week too my friend.

I like the seattle call especially off there close loss...morris might be in for alexander who has been horseshit and tampered with injury.

Kind of like ur G-men off the bye, but if you end up hitting dallas i might pass since you prolly know ur team better than i do..haha


I'll lay off Dallas... it's too close to bother with... gl with it if you take em' though.. I'll root for you.. and the G-Men of course.. ;)

it's comeback week this week.. we'll get it back bro... we need a Precise Blitz soon.. hehe.
 
what up sammy?

i lean:

Minnesota +6 @ GB (dont like this game)

St. Louis +11.5 @ NO - stl

Atlanta +4 @ CAR - atl

Cincinnati +4.5 @ BAL - (this line is funny huh?)

DET @ Arizona -1 - ari

Dallas -1 @ NYG - YOUR G-MEN...this line is funny for a reason sammy. there should definately be late action on the boys sunday night with a bunch of people chasing. but then again it is a lean.

if i were to post my picks now i would seem bi-polar come sunday...:consoling1:
 
Add:


DET @ Arizona -1

*** ( 5 units ) ***

This is my biggest play of the season to date. I already posted some thoughts in another thread on this game, but I'll recap. Over 80% of the public is pounding the shit out of Detroit and the line keeps going in reverse. Like Vegas doesn't want 80% of the public on em'... they want 100% on em'.. hehe. Just the fact that they have a 6-2 team as a dog against a 3-5 team says something. I'm not letting the line move anymore. I'm taking it now.

Before Sundays game against Tampa, the Cards had only lost one game by more than 3 pts. And that one game was against the Panthers when Warner got hurt and Rattay came in. They have been close in every game this season and even beat the Steelers early on.

Detroit was demolished 56-21 at Philly and 34-3 at Washington. They are not too good on the road against tough stop defenses. The only two road teams they have beat were Oakland and Chicago. This Arizona team could be tougher than those when you consider that if you don't count that game against the Panthers where Warner got hurt, the Cards are actually undefeated at home beating Seattle and Pittsburgh.

It's a situation where Detroit is facing a defense that's better than last weeks' Denver defense and Warner will be facing a defense that is worse than last weeks' Tampa defense...

Detroit is ranked 30th against the pass.. six Detroit opponents have passed for at least 248 yards against them. Only two teams in the league have allowed more passing yards and only four have allowed more passing touchdowns than the Lions... and Detroit has allowed opposing quarterbacks to throw for at least 2 touchdowns in five of its eight games.

The only thing I see disrupting this play is the fact that Detroit is leading the league in turnovers and Arizona is great allowing them. But I still like the home team alot here.
 
Hedging:

San Francisco @ Seattle -10

( 3 units )



I'm hedging this play down one unit (to 3 units)... the fact is, I still like this play alot, but I just want to tone things down a bit for the week since I threw out the 5 unit play this week...

as Mr. Miagi would say to Danielson in Karate Kid...

"Focus.. remember Balance".. haha.
 
Hedging:

San Francisco @ Seattle -10

( 3 units )


I'm hedging this play down one unit (to 3 units)... the fact is, I still like this play alot, but I just want to tone things down a bit for the week since I threw out the 5 unit play this week...

as Mr. Miagi would say to Danielson in Karate Kid...

"Focus.. remember Balance".. haha.

Man, you know you're old when you're quoting The Karate Kid! Funny thing is...I'm right there with ya!

:cheers:
 
Against you in AZ and I don't like it. Especially as I started the week on AZ and flipped.

Good luck in Seattle and with the rest of your day tomorrow, B.
 
cliffy... great to see your leans... I figure I'll probably go light on Minny.. gl bro

tsadams... thanks bud.. gl this weekend..

Fonds... thanks man.. gl as well..

Aztec... don't like the way the line is moving on Seattle.. gl bro... and btw... don't make me feel older than I am... 35 isn't old.. hehe.

whoswho... heaven knows how Shaun performs too.. he's been shit all year.. maybe that evens things out.. hehe...

babyneedshoes... "can you say AARP?"... No.. not yet.. lol.. gl bud

Joe.. I really like Zona tomorrow.. I'm even thinking adding an extra unit on it.. but I think I'll stay where I'm at... I'll be rooting for the G-Men though.. hehe... gl this week
 
Last edited:
okay.. couple adjustments...


Hedging:

the Seattle play even more... dropping it one more unit (to a 2 unit play). Not liking the line movement and don't want to water down the Zona play any more than I have to on any one play.. yes.. I like Zona that much...


Adding:

leans that are working out with the line movements... I'll be taking these for 2 units each..

Minny, St. Louie and Cincy... have all gone against me in the direction I expected... added em' in..


also adding my other lean, but for only 1 unit...

Hotlanta...

and picked another lean along the way that I'm adding in... Denver for 1..


Denver was not an early lean, but I like em' now... regardless who starts at QB for em'...


so here's the recap...


Detroit @ Arizona -1 *** ( 5 units ) ***


San Francisco @ Seattle -10 ( 2 units )

St. Louis +11 @ New Orleans ( 2 units )

Cincy +3.5 @ Baltimore ( 2 units )

Minnesota +6 @ Green Bay ( 2 units )

Denver +3 @ Kansas City ( 1 unit )

Atlanta +4 @ Carolina ( 1 unit )



so much for limiting my plays ;)
 
hey BB - I'm on the Cards for a few and liking the Bengals, will probably put them in


gl today - GO Big Blue!!!!
 
Yanks... funny thing is, ATL and Sea are two I have been re-thinking alot.. haha.. but hopefully they still pull through.. gl bro

ToFurkey... "GO Big Blue!!!!".... you got that right bud.. gl.

ljc.. thanks man.. hopefully I don't end up with a hurt leg and trying to win at the end in a flamingo position though.. hehe... gl

Nugzz... well, not playing it because I have that feeling too.. and I don't want to root against em' in a big game like this.. gl bro
 
Great call on Zona, Blitz! Had to give you props there, especially since I tailed you for a small play myself. Thanks brotha, and keep up the good work!

:cheers:
 
thanks guys...

looks like the Vikes screwed up my day.. but still not a bad one..

I was also leaning Dallas but figured the game would be too close to call.. Romo played great... you gotta respect that guy...

I was leaning to Jack as well, but didn't want to get greedy as I was already on alot...

all in all, a good day with Arizona clearing the spread... still got the Monday Nighter pending..




Detroit @ Arizona -1 *** ( 5 units ) *** WON

St. Louis +11 @ New Orleans ( 2 units ) WON

Cincy +3.5 @ Baltimore ( 2 units ) WON

Minnesota +6 @ Green Bay ( 2 units ) loss

Denver +3 @ Kansas City ( 1 unit ) WON

Atlanta +4 @ Carolina ( 1 unit ) WON


5-1 ( +8.8 units )


pending:

San Francisco @ Seattle -10 ( 2 units )
 
hey d.. I really don't like the way the line is moving, but the Hawks should still be the play.. we'll cash in with em'... gl tonight.
 
well, didn't want to have to do this, but I really hate that the line is going against me (now 9 in some places)...

still think Seattle covers, but here's what I'm gonna do..


tonight:


San Francisco @ Seattle -10 ( 1 unit )

San Francisco @ Seattle UNDER 37 ( 1 unit )



hedging Seattle another unit (to a 1 unit play) and adding the total UNDER 37... If things go the way I plan, then Seattle will get over 20 in this one and the Niners will be grounded... which is what I think happens (Niners should be lucky to get 10 pts tonight imo)... I think the worse that can happen is if the Niners decide to keep it close and cover, it's going to have to be defensively in a low scoring game and I split...

how I brought Seattle down from a 4 unit play to a 1 unit play is still boggling me, but this is still the safest way for me to do things tonight...

I still think I hit both though.. ;)


gl to everyone
 
Wow, impressive week Blitz. Keep up the good work.

I like Seattle tonight, got them at -3 in a teaser. I think they run away with it just like the last time these 2 teams played.
 
Detroit @ Arizona -1 *** ( 5 units ) *** WON

St. Louis +11 @ New Orleans ( 2 units ) WON

Cincy +3.5 @ Baltimore ( 2 units ) WON

Minnesota +6 @ Green Bay ( 2 units ) loss

Denver +3 @ Kansas City ( 1 unit ) WON

Atlanta +4 @ Carolina ( 1 unit ) WON



San Francisco @ Seattle -10 ( 1 unit ) WON

San Francisco @ SeattleUNDER 37 ( 1 unit ) WON


updated:

7-1 ( +10.8 units )


well, followed my worst week of the season last week to the best one of the season this week..

not too bad.. hehe.
 
thanks Joe.. I needed it after last week.. haha..


btw... it kinda started looking like that Philly game afterall huh?.. man... those Niners really look like crap... plus their gameplan really sucked.
 
Yeah, it sure did. As it turned out it truly was a game that was over after one play. Thankfully I got in at half and fixed the money aspect so everybody comes out on top.

But man that team is a travesty.
 
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