Week 10 ~ MLB

mrpickem

mrpickem

SDQL Badass Stat Boss
sun 3-7
ytd 193-204 -27.5u
(ᗒᗣᗕ)՞

A third of the season is gone and it seems like it just flew by, every time I feel as though I'm getting a good feel a couple shit days sinks me back down. I'm hoping things will turn around as there have been some bad beats, some bad decisions, missed opps, etc... At some point this will go the other way
Happy Memorial Day and Good Luck Everyone!​
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tuck321 said:
I would limit Astros to first half. Very weak pen today
and honestly why Cleveland???
Click to expand...

Verlander may not need pen and tribe mostly fading sox play...but their pen is terrible and lotta chalk

Helluva wat to lose stros yesterday with 5 in 9th :eek:
 
getting on board with bucs
  • 902 Pirates +101
  • 902 Pirates +1½ -160
Kuhl has been good lately(3 of L4 were quality starts) and Monty making 1st start may not be that sharp. Pirates not great vs lefties, but ok.
I'll go with this angle from statfox:
Play Against
Road teams (CHICAGO CUBS)
good offensive team (>=4.7 runs/game) against an average starting pitcher (ERA= 4.20 to 5.20)-NL, with an overused bullpen that pitches more than 3.2 innings per game

77-43 over the last 5 seasons.
64.2% (34.4 units)

and also my query with home dog < 120 in day vs team off night after losing at least 7 of 10 since 2013
View attachment 32650
 
mon 9-3 (•‿•)
0-2 with adds

hadda nice day. should have left pit alone, but got caught up in so many on it and looked and looked for a reason to play it, also i had mets in gm 2 last night for another +155 winner as I found nice game 2 angle in div after losing 1st https://goo.gl/pgX3dH

going to the dogs tonight
Good Luck Degens.
 
Freeland* > Samardzija ??? What am I missing?

Lean over in white Sox & tribe ..

Fading King Felix been $ lately so I have Texas on the radar but the M’s been rolling so they it kinda scares me to fade them
 
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bee172 said:
Freeland* > Samardzija ??? What am I missing?

Lean over in white Sox & tribe ..

Fading King Felix been $ lately so I have Texas on the radar but the M’s been rolling so they it kinda scares me to fade them
Click to expand...

Yeah maybe SF is a reach, but gints are 13-8 vs lefties and I'm playing due factor after they've dropped 8 of 11

also my query: is a division road dog less than 145 with bad starter(>4.75 era) vs team after a walk off win has produced over 28% ROI over 126 games

View attachment 32669
 
mrpickem said:
Yeah maybe SF is a reach, but gints are 13-8 vs lefties and I'm playing due factor after they've dropped 8 of 11

also my query: is a division road dog less than 145 with bad starter(>4.75 era) vs team after a walk off win has produced over 28% ROI over 126 games

View attachment 32669
Click to expand...


Since they’re sliding is plus how their pitcher been throwing it made me play the Rockies. Thanks for your reply though, mucho appreciated.

BOL on the rest of your card. Joining you on the Over in Cleveland, F5 & whole game.
 
Kyle Freeland is dominant at Coors field throughout his career, a 3.3 era in 22 home appearances, including a 1.4 era in 3 starts at home this season. The Rockies have won 11 of the last 12 at Coors against the Giants, and Jeff Samardzija posted a cool 11.91 era at coors last season. (15 runs in 11.1 innings) Samards this season is posting a 6.2 era and has lost his last 3 outings. He’s only last 6 innings 1 time this season. Rockies have scored at least 5 runs in 4 straight games.
Click to expand...
( So this is the kind of thing I see everywhere, BUT we know it's not that easy! Always fade the locks.)
 
mrpickem said:
( So this is the kind of thing I see everywhere, BUT we know it's not that easy! Always fade the locks.)
Click to expand...

Truth. It’s what they teach you when you’re a kid, if it’s too good to be true, it probably is! Lol

:cheers3:
 
tue 5-3
once again my adds were not good at 1-2
  • 901 Cards -1½ +135
  • 901 Cards -117
  • 904 Dbacks -194
  • 906 Pirates +115
  • 913 Phillies +164
  • 917 White Sox/Indians Over 9 +101
  • 919 Astros +1½ -130
  • 928 Mariners -245
I settle for a lesser ROI when I got a big sample and high win pct >72
Considering: HOU ML, SEA UNDER, PHI OVER
Tonight will be last game for temp based CLE over at home. They have went 10-0 over this year when temp over 70 degrees. Unfortunately angle only applies for APR-MAY and they wont be back home for a week after today. https://goo.gl/LUmFcy

This for Snakes...big home fav with starter off quality start omitting sep over 4 years
-230 < line < -190 and HF and season >= 2014 and month < 9 and s:QS
SU: 177-57 (2.04, 75.6%) avg line: -207.5 / 186.1 on / against: +$5,928 / -$7,146 ROI: +12.2% / -30.5%
RL: 126-108 (0.54, 53.8%) avg line: 105.7 / -114.2 on / against: +$2,106 / -$3,625 ROI: +8.7% / -13.5%

This on good for Snakes and M's: Big home fav in conf with starter whip under 1 omits sep over 5 years(leans under too)
-245 < line < -180 and HFC and season >= 2013 and 4 < month < 9 and STDSWHIP < 1
SU: 82-30 (1.59, 73.2%) avg line: -206.0 / 185.4 on / against: +$2,065 / -$2,704 ROI: +9.0% / -24.1%
RL: 55-57 (0.09, 49.1%) avg line: 105.9 / -118.0 on / against: +$131 / -$799 ROI: +1.1% / -6.0%
OU: 43-64-5 (0.07, 40.2%) avg total: 7.6 over / under: -$2,747 / +$1,740 ROI: -22.1% / +14.2%

Phils: Road conference dog outside division after covering last 6 times favored 165 or more over 6 years
tS(W@line<=-165,N=6) = 6 and season > 2011 and ACD and 10 > month and NDIV
SU: 44-39 (0.19, 53.0%) avg line: 124.2 / -135.1 on / against: +$1,407 / -$1,898 ROI: +16.9% / -17.0%
RL: 55-28 (1.62, 66.3%) avg line: -174.0 / 157.7 on / against: +$777 / -$1,210 ROI: +5.3% / -14.3%
OU: 48-32-3 (1.73, 60.0%) avg total: 8.0 over / under: +$1,282 / -$2,033 ROI: +14.0% / -22.4%


Keuchel is an amazing 16-4 as road dog! 17-3 RL! Severino is top flight as well but I will take the chalk here. Also attached another low sample argument for stros with excellent starter as dog over 145 in series game > 1 and previous walk off win for opponent
View attachment 32674 View attachment 32675
 
BOL today sir!
Late adds cost me a great day last night as well. Bummer..

Onto today..

Agree on cws/clev Over. Even with Kluber out there I think the total can still hit double digits. Both pens are gas cans right now so a short outing by either pitcher would help a ton.

$ on Paxton to hold it down after last nights debacle. Can defo see him mowing down that rangers line up.

If you have time, what you think on SF/Col Over? Both pitchers got terrible ERA and like in Cleveland, temps rising so balls flying too?

Thank you.
 
bee172 said:
BOL today sir!
If you have time, what you think on SF/Col Over? Both pitchers got terrible ERA and like in Cleveland, temps rising so balls flying too?
Click to expand...

Rox have been under 6 of L8, both pitchers combines L5 starts each have yielded 8 unders and only 2 games over. Gints have only scored 22 runs L7 times out. I'm not gonna play under but not on over either.

under has cashed 63% alltime when rox home fav after 6 unders in last 9 games with starter > 4.75 era https://goo.gl/5ZXEBw
 
I'm gonna flip to RANGERS, I remembered this simple angle I've already won with several times this year.
  • 927 Rangers +248
  • 927 Rangers +1½ +110

Rangers on the road vs a team with 47% higher win pct

39-21 as average +157 dog for 64% ROI in history of SDQL database(2004) https://goo.gl/NXVsCo
10-5 as average +180 dog for 77% ROI this year alone https://goo.gl/4FU9wN
 
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fuck it, adding a few moore, I'm done now

  • 910 Rockies -168
  • 919 Astros +178
  • 913 Phillies/Dodgers Over 7½ +100
  • 927 Rangers/Mariners Under 7 +100
 
wed 5-8 but only lost 1.1u because of dog plays

sometimes it's hard to explain why...tribe is 12-0 over the total this year when temp over 70 at home or how rangers are 11-5(89% ROI) as an average +180 dog away vs teams that win 45% or more games. But when it works, I will ride it into the ground

Seattle no longer has win pcr 45% higher than TEX after last night, but if you simply reduce query to 40% better win pct, they get right back in at nearly the same returns
You get a slightly larger sample and still an amazing record of 52-32 as +157 dog or 58.6% ROI

View attachment 32689

Hell I took the query all the way down to 20% higher win pct and they were still winning 96-76 or 56% @ +155 for 41% ROI https://goo.gl/snG1xU
I guess this says TEX must add a psyche that plays up to better competition. Especially when traveling, but of course the odds are much better on road as well.
 
One of the better posters at Covers is large on Pitt over. Have not looked at it yet but that would worry me GL
 
I just saw why. Wolcott the ump last 6 with Pitt have gone over and all 7 with Cards have gone over
Pitt starter 9 ERA based on 5 innings with him
 
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tuck321 said:
I just saw why. Wolcott the ump last 6 with Pitt have gone over and all 7 with Cards have gone over
Pitt starter 9 ERA based on 5 innings with him
Click to expand...

Appreciate the tip, but my plays are relatively small and I'm already in so will probably let it ride.

adding...

  • 929 Brewers -128
  • 915 Yankees/Orioles Over 10 -116
 
O's 3-12 at home in division when riding 4 or more game losing streak
92c33df7-8fa5-4f63-90ba-b971ff5e3f84.png


but yanks only 9-18 last 3 years at Camden, however...they both point to OVER

0bed873c-d7fe-4c48-91e8-434a8d95e7b1.png
 
fri 3-4 after adding 2 losers late (¬､¬)

Big board today...
Verlander has been unreal; in his last 10 starts he's only gave up 2 runs twice. I think maybe all his grip practice on off days is paying off.

XckojgfNoLqstRzU7ZHBkjcXH7dFSCouYgblkDw9rf4.jpg
 
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Brewcrew has lost 3 straight to chisox and in over 8 years

P:L and P2:L and P3:L and o:WP < 50 and season > 2010 and AF and line <= -120
SU: 112-56 (1.62, 66.7%) avg line: -146.5 / 135.3 on / against: +$3,170 / -$3,762 ROI: +12.9% / -22.4%
RL: 90-78 (0.14, 53.6%) avg line: 116.9 / -129.0 on / against: +$2,725 / -$3,761 ROI: +15.7% / -17.2%
OU: 87-72-9 (1.04, 54.7%) avg total: 8.0 over / under: +$925 / -$2,401 ROI: +5.1% / -12.9%

and if you only include brewers it looks even better

P:L and P2:L and P3:L and o:WP < 50 and season > 2010 and team = Brewers and line <= -120
SU: 15-5 (1.95, 75.0%) avg line: -149.7 / 137.3 on / against: +$707 / -$777 ROI: +23.5% / -38.9%
RL: 12-8 (0.45, 60.0%) avg line: 134.6 / -148.8 on / against: +$864 / -$1,032 ROI: +43.2% / -34.5%
OU: 7-13-0 (-0.12, 35.0%) avg total: 8.3 over / under: -$705 / +$558 ROI: -32.0% / +25.4%

MIL screwed me yesterday, but I am seriously considering add them as Chacin is the most profitable active bet over last 365 days at 22-11 +16u 44% ROI https://goo.gl/TdJNe4
 
sat 7-4

tough beat on mets and stros too..still profit. i took mil also but didn't post it so no credit taken

Junis top five earner over last calendar year and Gosset top five loser...also Junis 4-1 in MAY-JUN at home mostly as dog https://goo.gl/wfGwXv
 
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Was looking at Junis. Naturally they give him worst catcher. Actually looking at Astros as well. I do not believe Mortom has ever pitched with Ben May will try Junis small
 
tuck321 said:
Was looking at Junis. Naturally they give him worst catcher. Actually looking at Astros as well. I do not believe Mortom has ever pitched with Ben May will try Junis small
Click to expand...

Yeah I understand by starter morton looks way better than porcy but I'm on some weird matrix trend...lol

Fading...home fav less that 170 off loss after winning at least 7 of last 10 at home

dog went 84-74 in said games for +19% ROI and 112-48 RL +14% ROI

GL bro

:cheers3:
 
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