Week 10 ML Dogs

ProV1Colt

ProV1Colt

CTG Super Moderator
Staff member
Very nice week 9 for ML Dogs

We are coming down the home stretch of the season. Bowl season coming.

Let’s discuss Week 10.

Any team jumping out at anyone so far?
 
Pitt again. Virginia is a solid team, but not the type of team Pitt will be outmatched against. This should be a close game til the end and sitting at 4-4 a game Pitt needs to find a way to win. Their remaining schedule is VTech, @WF, @Mia. Pitt has played well last 3 games and has good recent history vs VA.
 
Its probably a sucker play but I have no idea how Miami can be a 7 point favorite over Duke. Rosier has been announced as the starter and Duke has a huge coaching advantage.

The Miami defense is full of playmakers but the offense is disgustingly bad with this QB at the helm. Diaz runs a very aggressive defense and I fully expect Cutcliffe to take advantage of that aggressiveness with a bunch of screens and quick passes.

I can't win a game lately so you should all probably be fading whatever I say but Duke really looks like a solid play to win outright.
 
brewers888 said:
Its probably a sucker play but I have no idea how Miami can be a 7 point favorite over Duke. Rosier has been announced as the starter and Duke has a huge coaching advantage.

The Miami defense is full of playmakers but the offense is disgustingly bad with this QB at the helm. Diaz runs a very aggressive defense and I fully expect Cutcliffe to take advantage of that aggressiveness with a bunch of screens and quick passes.

I can't win a game lately so you should all probably be fading whatever I say but Duke really looks like a solid play to win outright.
Click to expand...
That stuck out to me at first glance as well.
 
Kentucky over Jawja??

And, in the “you must be crazy” realm of conversation, does LSU have a chance at all or are we goin ahead and ordaining Bama as invincible?
 
I haven't had a good ML picking year and am a little upset about it because I really enjoy being on upsets. I'm actually playing more per week this year, last year I typically just had 3, maybe sometimes 4 or 5. I'm taking about 6 per week now. Can't ML every dog I take, well guess I could, but I won't. Been picking the wrong ones.

This week I would probably consider:

Air Force +226
Baylor +252
ULM +230
ULL +292
Arizona St +215
Coastal Car +477
Duke +274
Northwestern +241
UCLA +274
LaTech +1070
Stanford +292
Oregon St +506

I'm sure I will have some thoughts on those and narrow it down this week.
 
Temple
Iowa
N Western
S Carolina (although they'll likely be the favorite by game time)
Maybe Kentucky

That's about all I see and I'd prefer the points to the ML on all those. This is the worst week so far for dogs.
 
brewers888 said:
Its probably a sucker play but I have no idea how Miami can be a 7 point favorite over Duke. Rosier has been announced as the starter and Duke has a huge coaching advantage.

The Miami defense is full of playmakers but the offense is disgustingly bad with this QB at the helm. Diaz runs a very aggressive defense and I fully expect Cutcliffe to take advantage of that aggressiveness with a bunch of screens and quick passes.

I can't win a game lately so you should all probably be fading whatever I say but Duke really looks like a solid play to win outright.
Click to expand...

I don't disagree with a fade of Miami. Saw them in person at BC last Friday. They were never a threat to win that game from start to finish. They have been in a downward spiral lately. Hopefully Duke can bounce back from their loss cause I don't see Miami doing so.
 
The spot was perfect for Arizona last week, Can see them coming back down to earth and losing to Colorado.

UNC has a decent chance imo and if you want a real reach, LA Tech at Mississippi State, though I see I am note the first to post that.
 
3-3 last week on the ML dogs but not seeing much in terms of true value this week, so probably won't be on any Week 10 but hope you guys nail em.
 
Thanks for all the posts, after week 8 having fewest ML dog wins week 9 had the most though only 3 or 4 were in the two TD underdog wins, most +120-160 range.

This week playing the following

Charlotte +21 - let down week for Tenn off 2 losses, think Charlotte matches up and have wins vs So Miss and W Kentucky and ODU
La Tech +24 - Miss St had aTm last week and Alabama next game and La Tech with 4 game win streak, losses to LSU 38-21 and to UAB, won at No Texas FAU etc
Northwestern +10 at home and 4 game win streak, should be 5 though lost to Mich 20-17

Considering these -
Wake Forest - home dog, push to get bowl eligible
Nebraska - better than record, think momentum, program coming together, think tOSU has weaknesses to exploit
Cal - seems each year Wash St has one week laying an egg, looking at this or the AZ game for upset, Cal has USC next so may pass this one
LSU - night game in Baton Rouge, will likely play points and ML just small
Kansas State more play on TCU trending down and have weaknesses exploited by others that KState should have coaches to exploit, game plan well
 
CHSGTMD said:
Thanks for all the posts, after week 8 having fewest ML dog wins week 9 had the most though only 3 or 4 were in the two TD underdog wins, most +120-160 range.

This week playing the following

Charlotte +21 - let down week for Tenn off 2 losses, think Charlotte matches up and have wins vs So Miss and W Kentucky and ODU
La Tech +24 - Miss St had aTm last week and Alabama next game and La Tech with 4 game win streak, losses to LSU 38-21 and to UAB, won at No Texas FAU etc
Northwestern +10 at home and 4 game win streak, should be 5 though lost to Mich 20-17

Considering these -
Wake Forest - home dog, push to get bowl eligible
Nebraska - better than record, think momentum, program coming together, think tOSU has weaknesses to exploit
Cal - seems each year Wash St has one week laying an egg, looking at this or the AZ game for upset, Cal has USC next so may pass this one
LSU - night game in Baton Rouge, will likely play points and ML just small
Kansas State more play on TCU trending down and have weaknesses exploited by others that KState should have coaches to exploit, game plan well
Click to expand...

Biased but don’t think you see a letdown from Tennessee. They’re still fighting for a bowl and Pruitt said themselves “why would they be looking ahead?? They have a better record and stats than us!”
 
Maybe so Ryno, SEC schedule so tough that anytime an SEC team has a lesser opponent mid year it would seem to have some let down effect.

Also missed the LSU-Bama time as 11am, thought it would be at night so will likely not be on that after all
 
Bama - LSU is 8pm eastern. CBS has double header with UGA-UK at 3:30 then at Death Valley for night game.
 
Last year Army snapped Air Force's 306 game scoring streak shutting them out (hadn't been shut out since 1992). AF came in rushing for 350ypg and they only got 95. Army won 21-0 and was +6 in that one and are now -7. AF did miss a FG and were SOD at the A16, so it there were some potential pts AF could've had, but still even best case they still lose the game by a TD.

Thing I like about AF in this game is their O is much better right now. Last year Worthman was their QB who was extremely limited in the passing game. Sanders finished the year at QB and he has QB'd AF's last 2+ games. He can run the option and complete a forward pass. They turned to Hammond earlier in the year and he led the upset of Navy, then got hurt early at SDSt. He is healthy as well, so AF has two capable QBs to play this year. And AF has shown they can to do some things a little different, like last week vs Boise they ran for 201 and passed for 242 (69%, 15.1ypa, 3-0 ratio). Vs UNLV they ran for 355 and passed for 217 (82%, 19.7ypa, 1-0 ratio). So vs Boise a decent D and UNLV a bad D AF has opened it up a little bit and shown that they know what they are doing and can actually make it work through the air which I think can come in handy vs Army this week and it isn't something they had in last year's game with Worthman.

The AF run D has also been much improved this year...on the season allowing 3.36 ypc vs last year allowing 5.93. And they have faced some pretty good rushing Os...Boise ran for just 121(3.7), SDSt ran for only 84 (2.5), Navy ran for 129 (3.2), Nev and Utah St did better rushing for 5.2 and 5.5 ypca, but FAU got just 54 and 1.86. No doubt Army is going to get yards and probably a healthy ypc because that is what they do and are very good at it. But I think it is worth noting that this AF D isn't getting run over vs good run teams, they are in fact improved over last year and should make Army atleast have to work for what they get and AF has proven at times this year they can be solid vs the run.

It goes without saying just how big the game is for both and I don't think anyone could or should try and spin it is more for one than the other. Sure AF has revenge factor, but it doesn't matter. This is one of the two most important games on each team's schedules each year so expect the best both have to offer. I would definitely call Army the better team, they've earned it. AF slumped, but I think they are showing they might be on their way back up.

The last 2 in the series have been upsets. AF's 5 losses have been by an avg of 6.6 ppg. They have been somewhat-to-very competitive in all their games and haven't lost by more than 10 all year and those were vs two pretty good teams, Utah St and Boise.
 
Weaknesses for Army? I'm still looking....not many.

Army did have back-to-back 3-and-outs last week at EM that for a moment allowed EM to get back in the game (EM trailed 16-0 and got within 16-14 3rd qrt)

Army had to settle for 3 very short FGs on their 6 of their RZ trips last week.

Army also had back-to-back 3-and-outs vs Miami of Ohio late in the game that were critical in allowed Miami to tie and force OT (Miami trailed by 14 2nd H)

Army blew SJSt out 52-3, although Army was +4 TOs and had 24 of their pts come off just 48y of offense following TOs.

Those are some things that happened in their last 3 games. I hate to sound like I am selling Army short, just trying to offer some chinks in the armor and some things that could work in AF's favor. Army has let teams come back on them 2 straight weeks. They did win both and pulled away from EM and made it noncompetitive. And just about the whole game vs SJSt was one big gift wrap. With all that said, Army is tough as hell, like I said they deserve to be the better team here no doubt.
 
ProV1Colt said:
Very nice week 9 for ML Dogs

We are coming down the home stretch of the season. Bowl season coming.

Let’s discuss Week 10.

Any team jumping out at anyone so far?
Click to expand...
I think if I had played every ML dog, I would have made money, led by Oregon St, Kansas, and California
 
bull said:
I think if I had played every ML dog, I would have made money, led by Oregon St, Kansas, and California
Click to expand...
Did you see how many double-digit FCS dogs won last week? Insane! I’m sure you would have been way up if you played all them too!
 
Posted some things on ULM in VK's thread.

In summary, Georgia Southern's 5 Sun Belt games they have won all of them by 16.2 points per game. They have outgained those 5 teams by 26 yards, total. Not 26 yards per game, no, they were outgained twice and subtracting that from the totals of the 3 opponents they did outgain nets just 26 yards. So how are they winning by 2+ scores per game? Turnovers. They are +19 on the year and +14 in Sun Belt.

Georgia Southern is a good team, but the fear isn't that ULM is just walking into an option offense buzz saw, or that their D just shuts teams down - they are good, GaSouthern O can make big plays, obviously the D forces some turnovers, but the way they are winning, the scores imply they are way better than they are really playing, I think. And this spread is also a reflection of that...TD road fav vs a team that can be dangerous.

ULM has been discussed in our threads a few times. I have ML'd them three times, got one W vs SM and got humbling L vs Ole Miss and also L vs Troy but that game wasn't all bad, they had a chance at the end. Anyway, when ULM brings their A game they have an O that can make plays and score...problem being they have often not brought that A game. Hype and potential entering this year by the veteran group has not been realized. But those goals and expectations are all well within their sights. ULM is tied for 1st in the Sun Belt West, ULM controls their own destiny for their championship aspirations making this a very meaningful home game for the Warhawks. Full disclosure, Georgia Southern is also in control of their own East Division champsionship position. So both teams are playing to stay atop their respective divisions in hopes of playing for a league title in December.

As bye weeks go, are they good are they bad? I think generally everyone would say they are good when play an option based team the following week. So that works towards ULM's advantage one would think. With trying to build a bad program from nothing to something, ULM does not have alot of positive history to point to. However, they did unexpectedly beat App State last year as 8.5 home dog (actually outgained App 569-508 also). That was App State's only Sun Belt loss in 2017. So it doesn't translate to how they might beat Georgia Southern, I'm just saying they have done something similar before vs a top-flight league team and this year's team has alot of those same players to draw from that experience.

Would not surprise at all if Georgia Southern got their first conference loss at ULM. That is unless ULM gives GaSouthern the kind of turnovers that team has lived on. ULM has a positive TO margin in their two upset wins (SM and CC)...they have a negative TO margin in their other 6 games (2-4 record). If that happens Saturday it is going to be a tough win to bag.
 
VirginiaCavs said:
Florida may be deflated after losing sec champ hopes
Click to expand...

What’s up w their secondary? I’ve heard injuries, if healthy this under a gift imo. Love mizzou unders cause they run scores up vs crap defenses giving us inflated totals for when they face defenses w a pulse!! Tigers run d plenty solid to limit gators offense. If gators secondary really banged up mizzou just might have a chance in a game I don’t see it taking more than 24 to win. No damn way it takes more than 30 imo, so that under looks really good!
 
2daBank said:
What’s up w their secondary? I’ve heard injuries, if healthy this under a gift imo. Love mizzou unders cause they run scores up vs crap defenses giving us inflated totals for when they face defenses w a pulse!! Tigers run d plenty solid to limit gators offense. If gators secondary really banged up mizzou just might have a chance in a game I don’t see it taking more than 24 to win. No damn way it takes more than 30 imo, so that under looks really good!
Click to expand...

I see nothing on injury report outside, Brian Edwards DB eligibility, Emanuel Hall wr Mizz Quest is big
 
2daBank said:
What’s up w their secondary? I’ve heard injuries, if healthy this under a gift imo. Love mizzou unders cause they run scores up vs crap defenses giving us inflated totals for when they face defenses w a pulse!! Tigers run d plenty solid to limit gators offense. If gators secondary really banged up mizzou just might have a chance in a game I don’t see it taking more than 24 to win. No damn way it takes more than 30 imo, so that under looks really good!
Click to expand...

Couple d backs were injured vs Ga but they‘re cleared now
 
aplous said:
Baylor QB cleared to play that's a ML banger for sure. Gundy has a history of losing after a big underdog win.
Click to expand...

I would have bet them with McClendon, but rather have Brewer...assuming he returns to his normal self this week.

Looking back at big blowout losses under Rhule (loses of 3 scores or more)...2017 they lost at Oklahoma State 16-59, they came back played well early vs WVU and rallied late outgaining WVU by 4y and losing by just 2 with a spread of +9. They lost big to Texas 7-38, next game dominated at Kansas the following week as 7.5 fav. This year Oklahoma doubled the up 66-33, but the following week Baylor beat Kansas St 37-34 in a noncovering -4.5 win. Every situation and opponent is different, but atleast their is some history showing that Rhule gets them to play better the following week after a big loss.
 
2daBank said:
Hair color has never been big thing for me. Ass and titties tend to get my attention, hair color be damned.
Click to expand...

How can you not care about hair color? Hair color is like the frame of a portrait, it can radiate or bleaken the whole body and that makes a big diff
 
I understand BAMA is the greatest team to ever play college football I just wonder if anyone has looked into their tough schedule to date. Truly pathetic defenses in every game thus far. That said Tennessee was his toughest environment to date for heavens sake. My power just went out it’s so electric round here. The hate is real and the stage is set. Get in where you fit in.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Similar threads

ProV1Colt
ML Dogs Week 0-1
Replies
41
Views
930
B.A.R.
B.A.R.
B.A.R.
ML Dogs Week 11 Discussion
Replies
36
Views
342
2daBank
2daBank
B.A.R.
Week 8 -- ML Dogs $$$$
Replies
24
Views
231
JROCK1966
JROCK1966
KJ
KJ CFB Week 10
Replies
24
Views
431
KJ
KJ
ProV1Colt
ML Dogs Week 11
Replies
14
Views
486
CPA-hole
CPA-hole
Back
Top