Week 10 Leans & Plays

Aztec4Life

Aztec4Life

Montezuma Mesa Survivor
After an awful Sunday morning/afternoon, I bounced back nicely with plays on the Pats and Steelers.

Anyhow, on to Week 10...


'an_horse'


Week 10 Plays

Tennessee -2.5 (-120) [1.1 Units] :D

Baltimore pk (-110) [1 Unit] :D

Atlanta -1 (-110) [1 Unit] :D

Giants 1st Half +1 (-110) [0.8 Units] :D

San Diego -14 (-115) [0.7 Units] :mad:

& two ML plays...

Giants +130 [0.5 Units] :D

Green Bay +120 [0.5 Units] :mad:


'an_horse'


Week 10 Leans
<!-- / icon and title --><!-- message -->
Baltimore +1.5 @ Houston --> What am I missing here? Yes, I'm aware Houston has been playing much better in the last four weeks. But Baltimore is without a doubt the best defense the Texans will have faced since Week 2. And now, with Schaub out, Rosenfels gets the start. Flacco impressed the hell out of me last week, as did the Ravens defense, bouncing back from a poor 3rd Q. Again, what am I missing here?

New Orleans @ Atlanta pk --> Big game for the Falcons here, returning home after being on the road in four of their last five games. NO has won SU in their last three games against the ATL. I think Ryan will have success throwing the ball, and the Falcons clearly have the more balanced offense. Really tough to see the Falcons coming out flat.

Denver +3 @ Browns --> Brady Quinn's first start? Cleveland has had difficulty rushing the ball all year...and now Quinn will be at the helm? Devastating loss last week for the Brownies, while Denver is STILL in 1st place. If Flacco can pass all over the Browns, Cutler should be able to at least have similar success. Browns have problems everywhere, and it showed last week.

Kansas City @ San Diego -15 --> If the Chargers don't win by 20+, I'll be stunned. Period. The more I look into this game, the more I really, really like San Diego.


'an_horse'



If you think I'm wrong on these, please, feel free to talk me off these leans.

GL this week fellas!


:cheers:
 
Last edited:
Leaning strong on Balty and Atl....leaning oppo on Cleveland, big turnover edge to a +4 Cleveland to a -11 Denver

Good luck Aztec:cheers:
 
Thanks JML. Still lean Denver here, especially with Quinn getting his first NFL start.

GL this week!

:cheers:
 
Balty and ATL have both moved as the faves. I already got on Balt at -1 and I see ATL is now -1 at my book. Thinking about locking in ATL now. I love the 2 headed running attack with Turner and Norwood. That allows Ryan to throw only when needed which he seems to be pretty efficient when throwing downfield.

Damn, even your Rice pick went up to -11. You moving lines? LOL. Good luck.
 
cogenman said:
Balty and ATL have both moved as the faves. I already got on Balt at -1 and I see ATL is now -1 at my book. Thinking about locking in ATL now. I love the 2 headed running attack with Turner and Norwood. That allows Ryan to throw only when needed which he seems to be pretty efficient when throwing downfield.

Damn, even your Rice pick went up to -11. You moving lines? LOL. Good luck.
Click to expand...

LOL! You know it...

;)

Thanks bro! Glad you like Balty & Atlanta as well. Best of luck this week!

:cheers:

Added...

Atlanta -1 (-110) [1 Unit]


'an_horse'
 
Been touting Balt past few weeks so I believe in them and have for awhile . That was a big win they came from behind and notched , you wonder if they can do it again on the road . Houston = self destruction . I had Minny and really if Houston didnt fuck up 6 or 7 plays they win rather easily .

On offense :
Schaub 2nd and 6 from the Minny 19 (2nd Q) throws a pick
1st and 10 from Minny 35 Schaub sacked and fumbles (2nd Q next possssion actually)
3rd and 1 from Minny 18 Rosenfals picked off (3rd Q scored a TD previous possession)

They did get a pick 6 early vs Frerotte though but the DEFENSE :
opening play allows 55 yd reception to Berrian which 11 yds later leads to Minnys 1st TD. 2nd TD was setup with field position at the Houston 47. Included a 4th and 1 conversion plus it took 13 plays and culminated ina 3rd and goal from the 8. Third TD again good field position starting at their 44 and hit Berrian on 3rd and 3 for 48 yds score.

Houston does often beat itself often but I think has a good chance of winning this game . Part of crazy stretch of 3 straight road games but on the heels of 2 road games @ Indy then @ Miami before a home game vs OAK . So this is 4 of 5 away and SB Champ Giants await.

What hurt Houston vs Det and Miami was the big pass plays to Cobb and CJ which I am not sure that Balt will make here . Otherwise the Houston defense has held up IMO....

Game should be a PKem IMO so not sure what to mak eof it really....:cheers:

 
GL aztec...

like atl this week and will probably play them.... turner should be able to have a big day running the football.

and as much as i hate to say it, i think NE is underpriced here only laying 3.5... I had this game at 6.

NE had the better of the play against indy and screwed themselves out of a loss on two big plays, the gaffney drop and the personal foul with 4 minutes remaining to screw a possible TD drive.
cassell gets better every week and looked very composed. they have an excellent balanced offensive right now.

buffalo has not been great on the road either. winning in STL and jax is not hard to do, and they lost in miami and zona.

no opinion on hou/balty, looks like a coin flip to me. no interest. GL :cheers:
 
G-Man said:
Good health on these 3. :shake:
Click to expand...

Wow! Against me on every play? I'd LOVE to hear your reasoning. Just FYI, I've only bet on Balty and Atlanta at this point...only two plays thus far.

So, let me get this straight...you're going with a team starting Sage Rosenfels against one of the top defensive units in the NFL? Plus, the Ravens have a vastly superior running game, and have beaten their last three opponents by an average of 14 points a game! Good health there.

And...you're backing a Saints team that is completely one dimensional on offense, getting virtually no points on the road? Not to mention they're facing a Falcons team that has a balanced offense, and a superior defense (in terms of points allowed). I really can't see Atlanta coming out flat here...especially since they haven't beaten the Saints in two years. Again, good health.

:shake:
 
Last edited:
Damnit...I didn't listen to my gut, and missed out on the chance to make some cash on Denver. Oh well.

:whip:
 
I don't like Balty.
They come off an upset victory last week, and they are probably a bit overrated right now, while it's the opposite with Hou.
Hou is a home team, they are 3-1 at home, and should have been 4-0 if it wasn't for the unnecessary loss against Indy.
 
Love the Falcons dog.............leaning to Houston at home though. Raven run D is still solid, but their pass D is brutal. I see Sage going off........
 
Wikeman said:
I don't like Balty.
They come off an upset victory last week, and they are probably a bit overrated right now, while it's the opposite with Hou.
Hou is a home team, they are 3-1 at home, and should have been 4-0 if it wasn't for the unnecessary loss against Indy.
Click to expand...

That's fine. Good health on Houston. I've got no problem playing against a team that has their backup QB starting for the first time this season.

I don't see how Balty's win was an upset last week...just look at the box-score. I also watched the entire game, and if not for the Cribbs TD, the game isn't close.

I'll take the better defense (both rush D and pass D) and better running game, at a pick'em spread any day of the week.

:shake:
 
shark & aplous - Thanks for the well wishes...GL tomorrow!

:cheers:

Added...

Tennessee -2.5 (-120) [1.1 Units]

& a ML play...

Green Bay +120 [0.5 Units]


'an_horse'
 
Last edited:
very different cards for the two of us this week, with ya on atl big though so hope we can cash on that one
 
HELL YEAH! 3-0 on my sides today, and my only ML play, GB, is up by 6 with under 4 minutes to go!

:cheers:
 
Damn Chargers...made Thigpen look like the NFL MVP. Oh well...still having a good day.

Added...

Giants 1st Half +1 (-110) [0.8 Units]

& another ML play...

Giants +130 [0.5 Units]


'an_horse'
 
Hell yeah nice week. :cheers:

Great calls early in the week we discussed on ATL and Balt. Too bad that GB kicker didn't hit that last second fg. Oh well, great week nonetheless.
 
cogenman said:
Hell yeah nice week. :cheers:

Great calls early in the week we discussed on ATL and Balt. Too bad that GB kicker didn't hit that last second fg. Oh well, great week nonetheless.
Click to expand...

Thanks alot brotha! I definitely nailed the ATL, BAL, & DEN games...the outcomes were almsot exactly what I expected. Regret not playing the Broncos, but it's all gravy. If that kick was just a few feet to the left, GB would've cashed too...oh well. Thanks again for the kind words bro!

:cheers:
 
good stuff bro---- nice day


I know that Sean Hill is better than both O sullivan and Alex smith---

I dont beleive this singletary crap-- IMO pros dont play for a coach that yells and screams-
49'ers are not half bad on D, but I watched that first game and Warner had his way, just threw short passes all game over the middle--

Thinking that Fitzy and Boldin on monday night at home can just go nuts, and vs 49'ers i am not sure any of their Db's wont be a big mismatch for them--

Like the Zona D at home, they are tough and pressure a lot--

Lets see hyper coach with a new QB with a limited offense vs Warner and Fitz and Boldin at home-- Defense with adrian wilson and berry and laboy should be back,

thinking this game could get ugly as I see no reason why 49'ers should hang around, think this is a talent disparity in this game-
 
Sammy Meatballs said:
good stuff bro---- nice day


I know that Sean Hill is better than both O sullivan and Alex smith---

I dont beleive this singletary crap-- IMO pros dont play for a coach that yells and screams-
49'ers are not half bad on D, but I watched that first game and Warner had his way, just threw short passes all game over the middle--

Thinking that Fitzy and Boldin on monday night at home can just go nuts, and vs 49'ers i am not sure any of their Db's wont be a big mismatch for them--

Like the Zona D at home, they are tough and pressure a lot--

Lets see hyper coach with a new QB with a limited offense vs Warner and Fitz and Boldin at home-- Defense with adrian wilson and berry and laboy should be back,

thinking this game could get ugly as I see no reason why 49'ers should hang around, think this is a talent disparity in this game-
Click to expand...

Thanks for the kind words Sammy, and for the insight into tomorrow night's MNF game.

I agree...I follow the NFC West very closely, as I am a Seattle fan, and I will be surprised if Zona doesn't win by DD's. Hill won't have all day to throw, as the Cards indeed rush the passer very well.

If Warner does his thing, the Cardinals will roll. Leaning heavily to Zona right now.

:shake:
 
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