Week 10 - Just when I think I'm out.....they pull me back in

[cointosser]

Lost my week 9 almost parlay......wasn't even close......so late night I made a small deposit........did another 10 team almost parlay with 3 Saturday night games (2-1) and 7 NFL games (7-0) to win 25 times bet.

Taking 4 straight games and an almost parlay.....first 4 are straight bets with the other 6 added for a a 10 team almost parlay.

1) Iowa State +21.5 - Home team. Conference game. Playing well. I'll take 3 scores. Possible outright. Oklahoma 43-34

2) Nebraska +14.5 - Was expecting anywhere from 9-13.5. At 14.5 I gotta take em. Ohio State 34-27

3) Vanderbilt +24.5 - Conference game. Off bye. Auburn big win. Vandy keeps within the number. Auburn 37-20

4) California +15.5 - At home. Extra rest. Washington gets by. Washington 48-37

5) Boston College +24.5 - Went back and forth to include or not. Counting on BC D to play well at home. Louisville 34-16

6) Syracuse +25.5 - Clemoson let down. Rested Cuse puts scare into em. Clemson 40-27

7) Georgia Southern +27.5 - Hunch says Ga Southern D plays well. Ole Miss goes through motions. Ole Miss 37-16

8) North Texas +20.5 - NT have been playing well. At home expect max effort. La Tech 41-26

9) Texas San Antonio +20.5 - They have a knack of keeping games close. Middle Tennesee 36-20

10) Florida International +28.5 - Shootout. Western Kentucy 51-30

 

[cointosser]

bad night in NFL....talk about a boring game....pure shit.

putting in one more 10 team almost parlay......and will not check in until Saturday night. I like these 10 a lot. Good luck

1) Iowa State +20.5 - not sure why home team that has been playing well getting 3 TD's. I like this one a lot
2) Syracuse +26.5 - lots of points to a game Cuse team that can score. Clemson off huge rivalry game. I think this line is about 12.5 points too high.
3) Maryland vs Michigan over 54.5 - Maryland has been scoring. 13+ from them should do it. Michigan piles up points I think. Michigan 43-16
4) Vanderbilt +25.5 - Rested team that is playing great D should be able to keep it close vs team off big road win
5) FIU vs Western Kentucky over 66.5 - FIU should get to 20+ and WKU their normal 50+ at home.
6) North Texas +20.5 - At home should play a cleaner game (4 turnovers last week) and keep it close
7) California +16.5 - Home team coming off bye vs a team that went on road last week and got a big win. Close game
8) Oregon State vs Stanford over 42.5 - Stanford O should be able to put up 30+ here. Oregon State O capable of 13+
9) Wisconsin vs Northwestern over 41.5 - Got a feeling both teams in 20's in 3rd quarter
10) Nebraska +17.5 - This one has me scratching my head. Thought it would be 10.5 at most. Is there an injury I don't know about?

4)

 

[s--k]

Nebraska +17.5 - This one has me scratching my head. Thought it would be 10.5 at most. Is there an injury I don't know about?

No injury that would affect the spread. The opening number was probably a product of power ratings that had Ohio St -10 at Wisconsin and Nebraska +8.5 at Wisconsin. Adjust the numbers since OSU was too high, Nebraska was a tad high and you get something like 14 or something like that. And it gets bet up from the open because perception is that Nebraska isn't that good (see Illinois, Indiana, Purdue games) plus Ohio State being Ohio State people bet those teams up typically. Not sure you can make Ohio State 10.5 when Wisconsin was 8.5 over Huskers implying Ohio St -2 over Wisconsin on neutral field. My best explanation, but I don't know. I tend to like Nebraska at this spread level as well, but I kind of get why it is where it is.

 

[AliShaheed]

No injury that would affect the spread. The opening number was probably a product of power ratings that had Ohio St -10 at Wisconsin and Nebraska +8.5 at Wisconsin. Adjust the numbers since OSU was too high, Nebraska was a tad high and you get something like 14 or something like that. And it gets bet up from the open because perception is that Nebraska isn't that good (see Illinois, Indiana, Purdue games) plus Ohio State being Ohio State people bet those teams up typically. Not sure you can make Ohio State 10.5 when Wisconsin was 8.5 over Huskers implying Ohio St -2 over Wisconsin on neutral field. My best explanation, but I don't know. I tend to like Nebraska at this spread level as well, but I kind of get why it is where it is.

The line dropped to -13.5 initially and rose to -17.5 with the overwhelming majority of tickets written for Nebraska. Makes ya think...

 

[s--k]

The line dropped to -13.5 initially and rose to -17.5 with the overwhelming majority of tickets written for Nebraska. Makes ya think...

That is one of those things, is the majority of money coming in on tOSU on a smaller number of bets while the larger number of bets comes in on Nebraska but less overall money?

May not be true Sunday afternoon open, but I show 13.5 at 6:30 Sunday. Was it higher in early markets?

 

[AliShaheed]

That is one of those things, is the majority of money coming in on tOSU on a smaller number of bets while the larger number of bets comes in on Nebraska but less overall money?

May not be true Sunday afternoon open, but I show 13.5 at 6:30 Sunday. Was it higher in early markets?

Opened at -15.5 at BOL

 

[carolinablue]

Opened at -15.5 at BOL

Yeah by the time I got it the line had dropped to 14.5. Thought I caught it just in time since it was above 2 TDs and it dropped quickly to 13.5, so gotta admit I have been surprised to see it rise the last 24hrs up to 17. Almost put another unit on it but decided to stay disciplined although it is tempting given how the Huskers battle so hard in the 4th quarter of games.

 

[cointosser]

Wow. Almost every line has moved against me. Just a few thoughts

Nebraska +17 - Their big time receiver returns. And their other big receiver recently returned also. Listened to some clip that said Ohio State lost 18 starters from last year? WTF. Feeling better about my Nebraska +14.5

Vandy +25.5 - Only a 1 point move. Vandy should be well rested and prepared for the Auburn attack. Still think Auburn let down here. Feel good with Vandy +24.5

California +18.5 - 3 point move against me. Only game Cal has lost big was by 21 at USC last week. 2 extra days to get ready and at home. I think bettors thinking Washington needs to "run it up" since they are not in the playoff. Still feeling good with Cal +15.5 ticket.

Western Kentucky game over 63.5 - Moved down 3 points due to FIU staring QB out. That's big....BUT I don't see WKU not getting 50+ points at home. I think FIU even with backup could hit 20+ here. Feeling OK with over 66.5 ticket.

Michigan over 53 - Moved down from 54.5 - Maryland QB back healthy and they've scored the past 2 weeks. Michigan at home should get 35+. Maryland should be good for 20. A bit worried with my over 54.5 Also took Maryland +30.5 in another AP....I think they do enough to get over this number.

 

[s--k]

Why is McGough out? Can't seem to find any news paper or info on the official FIU site. I do see a point spread site also says he is out.

 

[cointosser]

No idea why he is out. I thought 66.5 was light for this game. So I thought he might not play when he was listed as probable. I still think it'll be a wild high scoring game.

 

[s--k]

Yeah, the backup has played already this year. I like McGough though. Must've been a late week thing to scratch him.

 

[s--k]

You watch that FIU-WKU game? It was on BeIn Sports. I had my friend and wife asking me, 'come on with this game'.

I think both teams cleared their benches. Backup WKU RB fumbled a pitch and FIU got their final TD (and covering TD) off a 15y drive or something. Then, it almost evened out as FIU fumbled and WKU fell on it at like the 15. They drive to the 1. We had to withstand 2 runs from point blank range at the goal line (when WKU could've taken knees). And FIU holds! I know FIU did throw a stupid INT in the EZ earlier in the game. But we got a little lucky how it played out, I'll gladly take it. Thanks for planting the seed on that one, I may have overlooked it.

 

[cointosser]

I didn't see it on TV but was following it online.....didn't think the +28.5 or the over were going to make it..........

It was a tough week for my wagers....I also had a tough week last week but got lucky when I put a 10 team Almost parlay in late night with 7 NFL games the next day....got lucky and went 9-1 to win 25 times wager.........was thinking of trying to do it again last night. lol........ended up getting a call and going out so didn't put it in......had 5 late college games and 5 NFL games ready to SUBMIT but computer timed out while taking a shower and didn't have time to put it in..........the college football games went 1-4 so in a way i got lucky i didn't put it in.

Try again next week. Going to throw a 10 team AP in NFL (7 games) and NBA (3 games) today for shits and giggles.....